Rays clear one hurdle; now things get really tough

So my prediction was pretty close. If anyone watched, I think Leslie Curran was clearly not thrilled with the state of affairs (she asked the Rays to delay the whole question) but in the end Curran voted with the majority of her colleagues to move the process along. So the vote was 7-1, not 6-2 as a I thought.

Now, let's forecast here into the future.

My sense today is that on the July 17 vote, only one vote appears like it could change. While most of the council (except Polson) has agreed with Mayor Rick Baker's thinking that Aug. 7 is the real drop dead date, Jeff Danner is saying July 17 is his drop dead date.

Assuming, he doesn't change his mind, and assuming he doesn't have all the info he needs then (city staff are targeting a Aug. 1 clean-up date), that means he should vote "no." But, again, if nothing else changes, the vote should move on to Aug. 7, 6-2.

Now on Aug. 7 (assuming the county and the city are all happy on the $$$$) the Rays need five votes to make the ballot. They appear to have two for sure (Dudley and Bennett). And I think they have to be pretty confident Wengay Newton will come along.

So from the remaining five (Polson, Kennedy, Curran, Danner, Nurse), they need two.

Believing Polson is not going to change his mind, the Rays need two of the remaining four. And if Danner votes no on July 17, is it possible he votes yes on Aug. 7? I guess it's possible, but probably a little iffy.

That potentially means the Rays need two of the remaining three.

That's a much more difficult proposition. (And is worth watching).

Nurse has all but said he's against the Rays' plans. And Curran hasn't exactly seemed delighted by the idea either. Good night St. Petersburg.

Comments

[Trey Parker and Matt Silverman]

Xenu will move all hurdles. Xenu works for the Rays. See his message to POWW here-
http://www.scientomogy.com/xenu.php
Xenu's picture is only missing the cowbell.

[Will Ferrell]

I think we should send Cowbells to all the members of the council to show our support. The Cowbell will show solidarity to the non-believers.

Go Cowbell, and Go Stadium!

[Dave in St Pete]

Aaron,

From your lips to Gods' ear!

Will it pass the next vote? Very high probable.

But then I too think that in the end Danner and Curran are no votes, Polson already is and won't change and I doubt Nurse will approve in the end.

Ding Dong it's dead!

[Let us vote NO!!]

Wow, sure is hot & sticky out. And a lightning strike just hit across the street. Glad I'm not outdoors right now!!

[XENU]

Xenu will protect you and keep you cool. He will make your cowbell not conduct electricity. All Hail Xenu!!

[Rick K (the real one)]

It will be interesting to watch.

While it is obvious there are some politicians on the council who will place pandering above responsibility, I think, in the end, a majority of Council will not cast the vote that starts the process that culminates with the Rays leaving town.

I think the responsibility of being on the City Council will outweigh the short term personal political calculations for the majority. They will not vote to derail a plan to bring BILLIONS of $$ to the local economy.

[John]

Rick K (the real one)

Care to wager on that? If you lose, you can never blog on any website ever again, and likewise for myself should I lose.

August 7th: (If the BOCC hasn't already shot this down by then)

Bennett - Yes
Curran - No
Dudley - Yes
Newtown - Yes
Polson - No
Nurse - No
Danner - No
Kennedy - No (he's the swing voter)

5-3 against, the deal is dead, and we can get back to our lives in this great city.

I still believe the Rays are smart enough to know when they have zero chance of getting this passed, and will likely abandon this sham before it gets that far, so that they can come back in a year with another plan. But it will not be on our waterfront. I think they got that message loud and clear.

[John]

I also liked watching Silverman & Kalt squirm in their seats when council was looking at their parking scenario whereas the city would have to legislate a downtown parking zone that would levy a surcharge on ANYONE parking downtown (a NEW tax) to hand over to the Rays, in addition to having to force downtown parking lot owners to comply, for which the city has absolutely no authority to do in the 1st place.

It just gets more ridiculous with each new meeting.

[Scott Dennison]

I agree with you Rick K... the pols will ultimately vote to straddle both sides as long as possible.

There is no downside to letting the citizens vote on this stadium issue. There is no upside to them voting with the haters that do not want the citizens to have their say.

So it will go to the ballot in November.

As for the issue itself, the Ray's need to step up their game in presenting a clear, undeniable plan that makes sound business sense. There are enough clear minded business wise folks who will say yes if the model makes sense. (including me).

But for those who think that taxes will be reduced should the stadium initiative fail - they are sadly mistaken.

The tourist tax will still be collected.

The sales taxes will not be reduced.

If anything the costs associated with maintaining downtown and the (abandoned) trop site will go up - however tax collections from the facility and the nearby businesses (think Ferg's, etc) will not be, as there will be no team to attract those revenues.

The trop will become the "worlds largest indoor flea market", surrounded by green benches.

Property values will drop even further.

The city of St Petersburg will return to being known as a sleepy suburb of Tampa.

Then the entire city commission will be voted out as inept anyway.

Let the people vote - let the chips fall where they may. Lets all hope the Ray's realize that the vote is in their hands.

[John]

Scott, you're dreaming.

The city council made it clear to the Rays that if this goes to a vote, and they lose, they are DONE. Even council chair told the Rays yesterday point blank "Are you SURE this is what you want?". The referendum will, if it goes that far, be worded something like this:

"Do you want to allow the Rays to lease the Al Lang site for a term of 30+ years or do you want Al Lang's current density preserved"

Which means, if they lose, our waterfront is off-limits for good. The Rays, in my opinion, go for the July 17th meeting by shuffling a few numbers around, get scolded once again my council and then abandon their plan with Rick Baker as their mouthpiece saying "We're going back to the drawing board, and will present a new plan in the future", thus leaving Al Lang a sitting duck for future "plucking".

[Dave in St Pete]

John,

You have the right of it.

I believe the council will end up killing the 'deal' so that it preserves the Rays chances in the future.

[Ray F]

My Proposal:

Rays Contribute- $200m

Also, agree to build a parking garage within a quarter mile walk to the stadium.

Also, sign a lease through 2050 and agree to a ticket surcharge to the city.

Also, change the name to the St Pete Rays.

I think they'll win if they concede those changes.

[Rick K will bet]

John, YES!

I accept your bet.

I do not believe the City Council will deprive the citizens of a chance to vote on this.

Of course, I have said the same thing all along.

If something is uncovered in the deal that we don't already KNOW about. Some huge environmental stumbling block (requiring more than just a few millions in cleanup); construction bids that increase the development costs by tens of millions; developers bids for the Trop site that leave gaps of tens of millions of dollars; or the unwillingness of Major League baseball or one of its unions to support the new proposals.

Any of the above have the potential to submarine this deal.

I think most of us expect all the MLB unions to mirror the commissioner's take on this.

So, really, unless something BIG happens, I don't see the Council stopping the citizens from voting on this.

And I am willing to bet that if this survives to the July 21 and August City Council meetings, a majority of Council will vote to put it on the ballot.

I will bet blog posting rights. I will bet cash. I will bet personal chores.

Bring all your bets, ladies and gentlemen . . . .

[John]

Ray F,

They could contribute all 450 million, it still will not pass because of the location. People don't want that "thing" on their waterfront. Period. One day, folks like you will thank us for preserving something beautiful for future generations.

This is why we didn't cover Ft. Desoto with condos, same with Caledisi. That's why we have the number ONE rated downtown waterfront park system in the entire country. This is why we consistently have two of the top-rated beaches in the country. This is not San Fransisco Jr. It is not Boston. It is St. Pete, and the reason people love this area so much is because we're not one of those cities. And we will fight tooth & nail to protect it.

See all those red signs in town? They say "no new WATERFRONT stadium", not no new stadium or we hate the Rays. No new WATERFRONT stadium. Come August, or perhaps Nov, you WILL see what I'm talking about.

[Rick K]

I think John is wrong about the waterfront. Many, many people in this City see the proposed stadium as a chance to IMPROVE our waterfront.

We have long found it absurd that it is so sparsely visited.

I think Ray's proposals are interesting.

I think the Rays could do a couple of things to help their cause.

1. Have some local economists do studies indenpendently reporting upon the likely economic impact of the $1.2 Billion in new spending on these two developments and the likely $1 Billion in tax generation

2. Get MLB to commit in writing to an All Star game.

3. Come up with some form of guarantee, beyond the construction cap gaurantee.

4. Take naming rights off the table, by NOT letting anyone else name the field or stadium. Instead, it should be called St. Petersburg Waterfront Park"

I think Ray's idea of increasing the Rays contribution may happen. I would like to see the Ray's keep the name "Tampa Bay Rays."

Mainly because I want the Bucs, Lightning and Storm to keep the regional label.

But the Rays could sign a "$50 million" naming rights agreement with the City, agreeing to Pay the City $50,000,000 for the rights to call the ballpark (forever) St Petersburg Waterfront Ballpark.

That would probably do it.

[John]

I think Rick K is passionate about his position, but his views are not in line with the majority. Regardless of polls, regardless of "deals" regardless of "naming rights". People aren't going to be swayed into giving up a chance to have more open waterfront (or a future use of Al Lang field) for a "gimmick" such as "St. Pete Waterfront Park" nor would the Rays give up that much potential revenue for such a gimmick.

And the back-door whispered threats of leaving town as well as no All-star game in St. Pete UNLESS....is not helping their position with voters

[Thomas]

John may be wrong about the waterfront, but we KNOW Rick was wrong about this:

Rick is never going to be accountable or answer questions. It's not what he does.

But, if you are actually interested, here's how it went down:

According to sales tax receipts, Hillsborough County reported January 2001 sales of about $1.44 billion. In January 2000 they reported roughly $1.4 billion.

There was growth but not more than is seen in any year-to-year comparison. In fact, it was less than the average growth by year.

Now, people certainly did come to Hillsborough specifically to attend the Super Bowl in 2001. However, in the end, all of their spending yielded no net increase in sales tax receipts from the previous January when there was no Super Bowl in Hillsborough.

John F. Sugg, Investigative Reporters and Editors and the Society of Professional Journalists award winner, has written some excellent pieces on this topic while he was doing research prior to Atlanta hosting a Super Bowl.

[Ray F]

Wow John,

Did you forget to take your fiber? I think a lot of the opposition is against the financing situation.

I think if you poll people about whether they're more concerned about taxes or the preservation of waterfront, I think the majority would say taxes. I appreciate your heated response and letting me know how "I WILL" see what you mean.

Thanks for setting me straight.

..and are you referring to me getting older and going on a stroll down our waterfront parks by saying I'll thank the citizens???

I regret to inform you that you are wrong. I can't miss what was never there. There's a stadium there if you haven't checked and 99% of the people in this city never saw that stretch of land without a stadium on it. Maybe the people who have come and gone since Al Lang was built would be upset at not wanting baseball played there. Did you ever think of that, John???

[John]

Oh and Rick K, that parcel of land may be sparsely utilized at the moment, however it used to be the center of action downtown, you know, before the Rays "in the best interests of their partners, namely the City of St Pete and its citizens" took away spring training. Al Lang used to sell out many FSL & Spring Training games a year, and now that site does indeed sit empty, because your Rays made it that way. There was no reason Spring Training and MLB could not co-exist. And if you think Port Charlotte is a worthy market of "expanding our fan base", I'd call you a liar. As councilmembers stated to the Rays yesterday, "people around here do not forget". And we will not forget should this go to referendum.

[John]

Ray F

Your basis for argument begins with the words "I think"...???

Do a little less thinking, sit back, relax and just watch, my friend. I have absolutely no fear that my kids will be utilizing "Al Lang Park" or going to spring training games at a remodled "Progress Energy Park" in 20 years. None, Zero, Zilch, Zip.

I know that reality makes you crazy, and I'm sorry but that's da fact, Jack.

[Tampa is Calling]

Time for the BIG BOYS to step in and get a deal done in a REAL city ... as soon as the Rays leave St Pete the downtown area will relive what happened when Webb City went t!ts up

St Pete = Ham & Egger sports town

the only thing left is the Kids & Kubs! LOL

[Ray F]

Fact and Jack don't rhyme. Why do people think they do???

I reject your "reality" and substitute my own.

I happen to disagree with you, but my world isn't going to crumble if we don't build a new waterfront stadium. I know the fact that it really doesn't "bother" me bothers you.

...and what team will want to train in St Pete after the citizens give MLB the big double tall boy???

[Rick K]

John:

The last 10 years have seen about 15 games a year (each lasting around 3 hours or less) being played at Al Lang field.

Your position makes no sense. If 15 games of baseball at Al Lang field was valuable during tourist season, then why the heck wouldn't 81 games of baseball at Al Lang outside the normal tourist season be even better?

You anti's crack me up.

NO BASEBALL on the WATERFRONT where we used to have baseball before the mean Rays took it away! It was great, and we wish we had it back, but NO, we don't actually want it!

Whatever, dude.

Whatever.

[Peter Gammons]

You are a friggin' IDIOT if you think that any team would move to Al Lang/Regress Energy for Spring Training

we're not in the 70's .... teams move into NEW stadiums and training facilities these days

still laughing that anyone really believes someone would move here WITHOUT also getting a new training facility .... and who's gonna pay for that??? LOL

what we do need?
MORE COWBELL!!!

[John]

Ray F,

You're right, there's not a single team in MLB who'd want to train on St. Pete's beautiful waterfront if we remodeled AL Lang for them, at a fraction of the cost of this monstrosity. Nah, they'd rather train in the desert of Arizona, I'm quite sure. While we're at it, we don't need Vinoy park either, let's let the owners of the Vinoy fill that up with more condos.

Screw the airport too, that's just a playground for the rich (but baseball is not). Let's let a developer do a mixed-use development on that, too. We'll keep a fraction of it for a park, to silence that silly majority.

Once all those people up north see how "great" our waterfront ballpark is on their TV set, they'll want to move here in droves!! We'll tear down all those ugly mom & pop motels on the beach and turn them into high rise condos just like Sand Key did.

When we run out of room, we'll convince county voters to partially develop Ft. Desoto too.

Meanwhile, the area between MLK & 16th St downtown will continue to languish or be turned into "affordable housing" to house all the waiters, valets, police and school teachers who can no longer afford to buy a house in this city. We'll call it the "Tropicana Housing Authority"?

But hey, that's just progress, right?