Speculation growing daily over Castro's health

Speculation about Fidel Castro's health is growing more intense with each day that passes without any word from him. It has been almost a month since he last wrote one of his published essays, known in Cuba as Fidel's Reflections.

His last published comment was on Dec. 31, the eve of the Cuban Revolution's 50th anniversary, when he addressed the Cuban people with uncharacteristic brevity for such a momentous occasion.

"Upon the celebration in the next few hours of the 50th anniversary of the Triumph, I congratulate our heroic people," he wrote.

The anniversary celebrations in the eastern city of Santiago were also low key, perhaps an official sign of deference to Castro's poor state of health.

The current rumors that Castro might be at death's door began to pick up steam on Sunday after Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said that Castro would never return to public life. Waxing nostalgic he added that Castro would live on in people's memories.

It must be stressed that there are no concrete reports of any deterioration in Castro's health or any official word from the Cuban government. The rumors are based solely on circumstantial evidence. But that is beginning to look quite persuasive.

For example, President Rafael Correa of Ecuador visited Cuba over the weekend and said he had been unable to meet with Castro, as he had hoped. He said he had no word on the state of Castro's health. In the past Correa has given upbeat reports on Castro's recovery from intestinal surgery in July 2006.

Panama's President Martin Torrijos was also in Cuba this month without seeing Castro. Castro did not write a word about either visit, which was unusual for him.

No photos have been published of Castro since Nov. 18 after a meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao. He met Nov. 28 with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, but no photos were released.

Castro's last Reflection was on Dec. 15 about the destruction of the environment. It seems curious that he had nothing to say about several important events since then, including Cuba's rejoining the Rio Group at its last meeting in December in Brazil, where the region's heads of state issued a joint call to lift the U.S. economic embargo against Cuba.

Most astonishing perhaps is Castro's failure to write about his recollection of the triumph of the Cuban Revolution 50 years ago, and the dramatic events of January 1959 when he led his victorious troops into Havana.

David Adams, Times Latin America Correspondent

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Comments

[Jimbo]

To quote Chris Tucker in Rush Hour, "You know he dead!"