Bucs playoff picture

Guess we might as well start thinking about the postseason. Here's our best effort to give you an idea of where the Bucs stand and what the postseason may hold for them. And, keep in mind, the current picture could change dramatically.

In any case, the Bucs will clinch the NFC South title with one more victory. That seems pretty much guaranteed given their remaining opponents: Houston (5-7), Atlanta (3-9), San Francisco (3-9) and Carolina (5-7).

So, with that, let's move on to the first round of the playoffs. Dallas (11-1) and Green Bay (10-2) are expected to get the first-round byes in the NFC. That leaves the Bucs playing at home against a widcard team to open the playoffs. If the season ended today, that team would be the Giants (8-4), who trail the Cowboys in the NFC East. The Bucs would (again, if the season ended today) draw the wildcard team with the better record because NFC West leader Seattle (8-4) has the same record as Tampa Bay and owns the tiebreaker by virtue of their head-to-head victory in the season opener. If the Bucs finish with a better record than the Seahawks, then Tampa Bay would be seeded higher and get the lower-seeded wildcard team. That could be one of any number of teams, with Detroit, Minnesota and Arizona -- each 6-6 -- among those fighting it out.

If you're still with us, we'll (foolishly) look toward the next round in case the Bucs win. If things go as expected and the division champions win in the wildcard round (which doesn't always happen), the winners likely would move on to play at Dallas and Green Bay. If the Bucs are the third seed in the NFC, they'd likely go to Green Bay. If they're the fourth seed, they'd probably travel to Dallas. I won't even dare look beyond that. We're getting way ahead of ourselves as it is.

Make sense? Hope this helps.

Comments

[Clark]

Basically, winning the division guarantees they open the playoffs at home and definitely go on the road in the second round. The only way they get to be home in the NFC championship (3rd round) is if they face the other wildcard team (the one the Bucs don't play in round one, obviously) or if they finish ahead of Seattle.

[M. Reynolds]

Seattle needs to drop a couple games here because i don't know about you folks but I am STARVING for a rematch with the Lions.

Plus God help whoever lands the Vikings as an opponent right now.

[DR]

M.Reynolds, it is highly unlikely the Lions will make the playoffs. They have a brutal schedule left. I agree, nobody wants to play the Vikings right now, although the packers spanked the crap out of them. If T Jackson can play mistake free ball, they have a shot.

[Dave]

Hey, just a quick comment: you use the words "likely" and "probably" in regards to where the Bucs would go if they won their first playoff game. Because those two teams have a bye, it's actually certain that if they win in the first round, they will travel to one of the two places (depending on who the other wild-card winner is).

[Skylar]

The Motor City Meltdown is in full force right now = no Lions in the playoffs.

It will be nice just to host a playoff game, I don't care against who with the way our defense and offense are playing.

I've already ordered my tickets. Such a rip-off btw, they make you pay for two and then you don't get a refund if they only go to one. The remainder goes to next year's tickets. Scoundrels!!!

[Clad]

If Green Bay loses 2 of their remaining 4 games and Seattle loses 1 game our Buccos would clinch the #2 seed and an opening round bye if we run the table. In my opinion, a very possible scenario.

So go Oakland this weekend! Can't believe I would ever of said that....

[Skylar]

I'm not going to get my hopes up, but I've seen crazier things happen. I just want us to win at least one more to clinch and stay healthy. Everything else is just gravy.

[j.k.]

Your first sentence says to me you really hate to admit it but the team you are forced to report on is going to play in the post season. You seem disappointed. Why is that?

[Michael]

Keep in mind we don't even have to win one more game to clinch the division. Carolina and New Orleans just need to lose one each. Carolina has a brutal schedule left, so that will happen. Not sure about the Saints. We win a tie-braker with each of these teams due to head-to-head (Saints) and division record (Panthers), so we're the division champs even if we tie one of them.

[Skylar]

You're right Michael, but I don't like to leave anything in the hands of somebody else. We get the win and we are in; that's all we should be thinking about. Let's make it our own destiny, not someone else's. I'd love to see us run the gambit and win out. Like Clad said, we still are mathematically in the running for both first and second seed. The previous scenario much more unlikely than the latter.

[Nick]

At this point and time I couldn't care less who we face and where. We have a Championship Defense, we have a Championship Special Teams unit and we just saw a Championship Offense this past weekend if McCown is at the helm. That's right, McCown gives us the best shot from here to play Championship Football in January.

It's been a while since I've seen Gruden go deep into his playbook (2002) and McCown allows Gruden to go even deeper. With Garcia we get a glorified scale down version of our offense. How many times has Garcia thrown to 10 different receivers this year? ( 0 ) that's right none, just shows how valuable McCown is at the helm.

Ok, he made a couple of mistakes that might have cost us the game against New Orleans. But let's not forget the situation he was put in. Playoff type atmosphere, hostile fans and a home team that had their backs to the wall that were prep to lay us out. A 10 year Veteran would have had his hands full in that type of environment let alone needing a change of underwear. Yet McCown went out there and played like a 10 year Pro-bowler. He didn't fall apart even after making those 2 mistakes. Say's a lot about this kid, he was poise calm and kept to the task at hand.

Trust me I saw enough of McCown this past summer to know this kid is explosive and can handle this offense better than Garcia. Gruden can do what he does best, create mismatches against all our opponents. Lets not forget that Gruden averages 35 points in Championship games, but he needs to go deep into his playbook to get those results. McCown will allow Gruden to do just that. With Garcia we may just go a round or two, with McCown we go to the Championship game. Mark this comment cause you heard it here first.

Lets Go Buc's!!!

[Evan]

Ummm Nick your a idiot.

[George Leslie Hicks]

Lets not rest of what we did the first 12 games. Lets see if we can get that third seed ahead of seattle. But don't ruled out Arizona . I think Coach Gruden has a great offensive and defense plan against New Orleans. The game should not had been that close. Two big plays was the difference in the ball game. I think Tampa could create problems no matter who Tampa plays. Remember last year. Remember San Deigo had a great record, and they got beat. Lets win all four games and poised for the new season.

[mike]

What a completely lame article with all the "ifs", dude there's 4 games left with all kinds of potential scenarios.I think all you sptimes writers have proven you aren't fortune tellers. there's no reason to think we can't be one of the top two seeds. And Nick,get real!! Luke did play great,but one game doesn't make the guy Joe Montana. Jeff is why we are where we are.Period.

[NIck]

Ummm, Evan YOU'RE illiterate

[Jon Gruden]

How about Simeon Rice. Cut from two more teams. Not even in the nfl. Obviously a great move by Gruden.

Also, Gaines Adams is now tied for rookie leader in tackles and sacks - with half the playing time. Watch the film last week. He had almost three sacks. Ronde and Jovan got the other two because Brees had to step up and out of his grasp.

Gruden is a stud.

[Bruce Allen]

Great post 7:32. Don't forget Bruce Allen's part in those decisions. He deserves credit too.

[mike]

OK Nick,you're AN idiot. Feel better?

[John Klopfer]

Wow...Nick is Luke really the second coming of John Elway...or maybe he's the next Tom Brady......or maybe in another week we will be calling him Luke the Fluke. Let's give Jeff Garcia the credit he is due. We are in the playoffs because of the leadership and talent of Garcia (look what he did for the Eagles last year). Personally, I hope the Luke is the answer to our future needs at quarterback. However, for today, Garcia is the answer.

[Nick]

Mike didn't mean to get you all riled up by attacking your buddy's grammar. By the way, you and Evan left your drivers licenses at the cherokee club in ybor last night.

[John P]

Yes, McCown looked good - but now there's plenty of tape of him running this offense to prepare for - and a defense will be able to plan for his tendencies. No knock on Luke - because he played great - but one game doesn't make a pro bowl player. The Bucs still live and die by Garcia.

Playoff wise, it'll be interesting to see what happens. I'm not willing to concede the Giants are going to get the top wild card - they've still got the Pats, Bills (on the road) and Eagles (who I think may upset them this week). Minnesota's toughest remaining game is Chicago, whom they've already beaten. If NY loses to either the Redskins or Eagles and they end up tied with Minnesota, then the Vikes get the top wildcard. I'd rather play NY and the bad Manning, personally.

Gruden will have an interesting dilemna once they end up locked into the 3rd or 4th seed (in about 2 weeks). If you've got 2 games left, you're in the playoffs and you can't get the bye - do you play your veteran starters like its preseason - or hold them out entirely to avoid injury? Is the fear of being rusty for your playoff game less than the fear of having injuries in a meaningless game?

[Chet]

If the Bucs are going to make an impact in the playoffs, they have to put Buchanon back to the nickel spot and start Kelly. Watching Buchanon get burned as the Bucs controlled that game early really worried me as teams like Dallas and Green Bay will pick him apart in their stadiums. Buchanon looked best when he came in for 3rd and long or passing situation. Having him there the whole game has given the past 2 teams a target to pick on with every play.

[Tom]

Chet, you are completely right. Buchanon has been exposed lately. The TD he gave up to Copper was terrible. He had inside help and still gave up the fade. If you have the sideline and a LB to help inside, the fade is about the only thing you've got to worry about. He needs to get up and jam the WR to disrupt the timing.

He also gave up the hitch and go that was narrowly missed by Campbell the week before.

However, in nickel situations, Ronde often goes to the slot because of his ability to rush. That leaves Buchanon outside.

[H-Man]

Great observation, Chet, Buchanon got repeatedly burned like a little girl.
One other thing. Let's give credit where it is really due. Nobody is talking about E. Graham carrying this team on his back, literally.The guy is doing anything he is being asked of...and then so much more. No matter how tired he is, he ALWAYS falls forward. What a true soldier.

[Your Mom]

hahaha....Nick gotta admit I don't live in Tampa, so I had to google the Cherokee club.....I find it funny you are trying your hardest to make a gay joke, yet you are most likely the only one who even knew it was a gay bar....Things that make you go hmmmmmmm....Let me guess you and Luke go there after games? I am just playing......I am sure Luke is straight...Keep up your man crush though bro

[aaron]

hey, skylar, i just talked with Anwar and he said he is willing to take you back. he wants you to come back to the tribune site. so please do us all a favor and go. Anwar also said he missed bi*@h slapping your bare a**. so there you have go back

[Tom]

Hey Aaron, I wonder if Skylar thinks that my nieghbor, who was born in PA, could go to Canton because he's from the same part of the country as Marino and Montana. Nevermind that he's 45 years old, overweight and blind as a bat.

Btw, did you know that Skylar said he is one of the only ones on this blog that has the "aptitude to talk football." Do you want to know what his reasons were? Because he played high school football, coached a girl's flag football team and refereed a Madden 2008 tournament. Great credentials, huh?

Skylar couldn't play football in a Korean War amputee league!!

[Tom]

I should correct "neighbor" because Skylar gets all in a tiff like a little school girl. He can't talk football with me so he tries to find any way to make himself feel better. We'll all real proud of you Skylar that you played coed high school flag football

[Evan]

Nick, I love how angry you are. Make fun of my typing all you want, it won't change the fact that what you posted was horrible. In all honesty, you are a moron. You should be a sports writer for the tribune.

[Tom]

Nick, I'm going to have to agree with Evan on this one. No one can take you seriously if you're ranting about McCown being better than Garcia right now after one good game in his entire career.

If you look at the numbers alone, Garcia is one of the most prolific passers in history. Just look at the stats. McCown has the potential to be very good. Maybe in the mold of Tony Romo. He's big, got a big gun and moves well in and out of the pocket. But right now, he should be holding the clip board while Garcia is healthy.

[Duffiedawg]

Nick, I have to agree that McCown did great. Hitting 10 receivers was unbelievable, but Jeff Garcia is the only reason that this game made a differenc. Keep him in, and look to Luke for the future.

It would be nice if we kept Jeff, and let the Old Dog teach the new one his tricks.

I feel really positive about the Buc's chances in the playoffs. In the past, the teams that have started peaking in late season, as have the Bucs, have gone a long way.

Injuries, bad as they have been, has shown us we have another premier RB with Mr. Playoff (AKA, Mr. August) I don't think there is any doubt about his value in the whole football world.

Cutting Rice, eventually putting the "put up or shut up" to Gaines Adams. Put up indeed he has.

Two right-side second year Linemen, have just got better each week. Just think, we have them for a while!

Luke Pettigout went down, did anyone think Penn could step up as well as he has?

This team is coming closer together each week, under guidance of seasoned vetrans, and a coach that finally got to draft his team of the future.

Look out, New England, you are about to be boarded in the Super Bowl.

[Skylar]

Here's a gem...they should let Sammy Davis play more in nickel and dime situations. From what I've seen, he is playing better right now than Buchanon.

I think it's funny that you two ignorant dorks (Aaron and Tom) talk about me even when I'm not in the conversation...sounds like p@nis-envy to me.

[Chet]

Skylar, While I think Buchanon has been awful the past 2 games at least (looked good the first three though), when Sammy Davis has been in there in the regular package, he's been dreadful, that one play tackling the wr for a lose was a great play and I was totally surprised when I saw it was him. I really think that Kelly needs to be on the field as his tackling and coverage skills have been vastly underrated his whole career.

[Skylar]

I'm not saying make Davis a starter, I'm talking nickel and dime sets. I disagree though that he looks dreadful at all. The only one that looks dreadful is Buchanon. At least Sammy makes some plays and he is capable of man to man coverage also. I totally agree with you that Kelly should be the starter at all times though, but that really is a no-brainer as he is our best coverage db.

[Nick]

Geez I wish we had an ignore button on this site for all the Idiot's and moron's that hate the Buc's and Gruden. It might just be a great place to discuss Buc football by true buc fans who know what they are talking about . I guess we have to put up with Evan the Idiot and Mike the Moron who think they know what they are talking about while they rant their hate for this team and it's coaches.

Come on TAMPABAY.COM, you think we can get a IDIOT MORON button put on this site. Reading comments from Buc and Gruden haters is getting old. I like a good dialog with some real Buc fans, not imposters who think they know everything. We need to get rid of the Wolves dressed in Sheeps clothing in this place. They must be New Orleans, Carolina and Atlanta fans, they sure ain't Buc fans.

I been a Buc's fan for 30 years, some of you kids aren't even 9 years old, I guess why all the ranting, go to bed children and leave Buc's football to the real men who are real Buc fans.
BTW don't use my name when posting, another problem with this site. I guess this site has tons of problems like Evan the idiot and Mike the Moron.
Later, GO BUC GO!!!

[Skylar]

Also, Chet, just to break it down a bit finer...I actually think that Buchanon plays very well in zone sets and Davis seems to play better man-to-man. That may be over analyzing a bit, but that is what I am taking out of the games. Buchanon seems to get burned sometimes when he's left on an island but has great closing speed when he gets to hang around in a zone. Has anyone else noticed that?

[Tom]

Hey Skylar, I actually agree with you that Buchanon plays better in a zone. He was drafted as a shut down man coverage CB, but he has bad fundamental techniques. He relies on his athleticism which sometimes get's him burnt. But I also think that Davis is even worse.

[Skylar]

Well, apparently they are all doing well enough to have a very solid defense, so I guess we should just be happy for that. We've got a lot of money and draft picks next year that we can address on that particular issue, but we're probably splitting hairs here. I swear that Davis has made a bunch of plays this year though and Buchanon seems to get burned twice a game. I find it odd that you don't see the same thing? Do you recall a specific play where Davis was actually burnt? I know I can think of 5 or 6 plays off the top of my head where Buchanon had to pick up his jock. I will give him credit for the first two games though; he played admirably.

[Tom]

You're right, Davis has made less mistakes. But I think that's because he hasn't been on the field as much. Buchanon has more natural ability but like I said, he has bad technique. Also, some guys have that awareness that makes a great player and some guys don't. I'm not sure if Buchanon has that characteristic. He did play very well early and has dropped off considerably as of late.

I want to ask you... Don't you just shake your head sometimes when you see a guy play a certain way and it seems very juvenile? For example, like Buchanon on Copper last week. Why the heck does a guy play 7 yards off when the ball is on the 3-5? If all you have to do is jam a guy to the sidelines, then all you have to worry about is the fade. Especially if you have inside help. How many times do you see a guy play off and get smoked for an easy slant? Like I said, some guys have it between the ears and some guys don't. No matter how athletic they are.

[Chet]

One thing that goes unnoticed is that to me at least, it seems that Aaron Sears has had more of an impact in his rookie year then Davin Joseph did. This is what I take from what I've seen. He has to be one of the better pulling guards in the NFC as it seems to me that each time that I see a replay this guy is pulling to the right and hammering out a block for Graham that makes the run positive. Other then the false start penalties he's had, there isn't much you can say about this guy that is negative. This line is young and both Joseph and Trueblood have greatly improved this year and Donald Penn has been a huge surprise ( I thought the loss of LP was going to be more costly in the long run then Williams going down for the year). Penn has held his own, but we'll have to see how he stacks up when the playoffs come (facing GB and Dallas will be a real test for him, if they get that far).

[Chet]

Tom, I agree with you that it seems crazy that a CB (Buchanon) plays 7+ yards off the ball when it's a 3rd and 3 even, but here's my view on this: It's easier for them to drop back and play the WR as he goes down the field rather then try to be physical at the line and get burnt long. I know, Buchanon is still getting burnt long, but at least he's in the play. I know he has speed, but watch when they play Steve Smith, the cushion the Buc db's give this guy is crazy, that's why Carolina likes to run that sideline screen with him to pull them up to the line, then he beats them long (at least when Delhomme was good and not on the IR). As long as the bucs play the Tampa 2, your not going to see a true shutdown corner on this team, it's not worth it to spend the cap dollars to get one. But, it's going to really be a sad sign when the Bucs let Kelly go after this year. I don't know who he pissed off, but it's going to bother me if he stays in the division, plays well and is healthy for the next few years (at least Lynch is in Denver).

[DR]

Tom, I get pissed when I watch two teams that I don't like play and I see something like that- playing 10 yards back on 3rd and 5. Even worse, my boys took advantage of a CB playing up on 3rd and 19! We blame players but where is the defensive coach at. He's gotta be screaming!

[Tom]

Chet, I agree with you that you are taking a risk playing bump and run when the ball is in the middle of the field. But on a goal line situation, some guys still play off 5 yards. It would be ok if they have inside LB help then all you have to do is get up and jam the guy. The sideline is your friend. I know it's easier said than done but it gives you the best chance rather than sitting back and giving up an easy slant.

[Chet]

Tom, I agree with you, it seems crazy, but there has to be a reason why they don't move him up or make this adjustment on the field. Again, I rarely have seen Kelly play deep at the line of scrimmage on pass plays (a cushion, but not the one that Buchanon is giving).

On a separate note, if you watched that Baltimore vs. NE game on Monday, did you see the cushion that McAllister was giving up? He looked like he had lead weights in his pants when defending the NE WR's. Amazing how bad he's gotten from his first 2 years.

[RICH]

I LIKE IT HERE,I`VE LEARNED A FEW THINGS.

[George Leslie Hicks]

Well before I give my two cents on who we should play. I HOPE NOW people would get off Firing COACH GRUDEN. He has really come back since the Superbowl Victory. I think The Owners would give him an Extentsion and work on next year Team. I would love to see Tampa in the Finals again. But First thing First. How about all those new players as well the veterans has come through. Lets win 7 more games. Go Bucs.

[Your mom]

GLH....I could not agree with you more....Before the season started all you would hear was Grudens name mentioned on the "who's in the hot seat" convorsation....It made me so mad....Nothing against Dungy, but he put the team that went to the superbowl together, and had them for a while. For Gruden to come in the next year and do what Dungy could not (at the time of course) was something that most Bucs fan's only dreamt about. That gave Gruden a free pass for life in my book.

[Your mom]

Oh and one more thing....For anyone to say that McCown should be the starter after one very solid game (due to a Garcia injury none the less) is a little moronic....The main reason Tampa is doing as well as they are is the personality mesh between Gruden and Garcia......Oh yeah and that Buc ball defense dosen't hurt anything either:)

[BornaBuc]

Dave-The reason he said "probably" and "likely" is because it's not guaranteed that the Cowboys and/or Packers will be the top 2 seeds with 4 games remaining. So it's not certain at all.

Jon Gruden-Gruden doesn't do anything with the defense. Giving him credit for the Bucs defense is like giving Monte credit for our boring offense. It doesn't make sense.

Why would Gruden start Gradkowski ahead of McCown, then when he starts McCown, go deep into his playbook? Why wasn't McCown 2nd string if we can open up the playbook with him? Why is Gradkowski even on the team? Kind of reminds me of Gruden throwing 47 times in 40 mph winds against the NYG last year. Makes no sense.

[Al]

Question: if a wild card team has a better record than the division winner in a first round game -who gets the home field? I'm guessing the wild card team, because they have a better record.