Trade down? Why not?

When you do what we do for a living, people expect you to have all the answers. And, so, this time of year, everyone expects you to know exactly what the Bucs are going to do on draft day.

Got news for you: not even the Bucs know yet.

Anyhow, I still make an effort to answer the frequently-asked question. One theory I find myself espousing lately is this: the Bucs could trade down. The latest to get this speech was my cousin, Sheldon, on Sunday. Not sure if he bought it. You can judge for yourself.

Here's my thinking (which, by the way, is echoed in Peter King's column on SI.com this morning): I believe that if it's the Bucs' intention to target wide receiver with their first pick, they might believe trading down into the second round -- and picking up an extra second- or third-round pick -- is wise. My rationale is, given the ordinary class of receivers we're looking at this year, how much difference will there be in a guy they can select at No. 20 versus one available to them in the second round?

It's impossible to say how much better Limas Sweed, for example, will be than, oh, Early Doucet. But my gut is that Tampa Bay might feel the gap between the first- and second-round receivers is narrow enough to make moving down for the sake of an extra pick worthwhile (does that make sense?).

The most significant variable that could derail this theory is someone taking an unexpected fall in the first round. Not sure who that might be, but let's say they don't expect USF's Mike Jenkins to be there -- and there's a good chance he's gone by No. 20 -- maybe they stand pat and grab him. It's unclear who the Bucs deem to be the best cornerback available this year, but if it's another guy and he happens to be available at No. 20, I'd say they'd grab him. And that would be a good move, in my opinion.

Whether the Bucs trade down or not, I think they will definitely field calls if anyone's interested. Their shortage of picks is no small factor, I think (they only have five). And there are several positions where it's believed there will be good value available in the second and third rounds. Cornerback and receiver, which happen to be primary needs for the Bucs, are among them.

For those who want star power, this probably isn't what you want to hear. But that doesn't mean it's not the smart thing to do. If I'm wrong, feel free to come back a week from today and let me have it.

Of course, we hope to see you before then. Don't be a stranger.

Comments

[James]

I for one would love to see the Bucs move down and get an extra pick a little more depth would be welcome and who knows maybe that extra pick works out for us.

[Staggie]

Stephen - I like the trade down theory, if Jenkins is off the board at 20, it just might happen.

If that is the case, Allen will trade Down to early second round and grab Trevor Laws from Notre Dame, we need help on the defensive line. He is a stud and can play the two gap.

Pick up an additional pick for trading out of #20 and grab CB Terell Thomas USC and WR Early Doucet LSU in rounds 3 and 4.

Thanks for getting us bucs fans juiced, you do a great job covering the team.

[Matt]

If they trade down what would they expect in return? The Browns traded the 35th pick and 2008's 1st rounder for the 22nd pick in last years draft.

If you go by Peter Kings trade partner of Baltimore would they give us their second rounder (40th pick) and their 1st rounder in 2009 and maybe a 6th rounder this year for pick 20?

[Stephen Holder]

Matt, it's hard to say without knowing how teams will value the No. 20 pick this year. But based on the traditional trade chart, and using Baltimore's picks as an example, the Bucs should expect a second-round pick and possibly a couple mid-round picks in exchange. By mid-round, I mean fourth or fifth round. I don't think they'd part with a future No. 1 for the 20th overall pick, but the Browns did it last year with Brady Quinn (No. 22). The Cowboys will benefit greatly from that trade as they were the recipient of the Browns' picks (they also got an '07 second-round pick). This is very premature, of course, because certain variables (like who's on the board) will impact how badly a team will want the Bucs' pick. I think perhaps the Browns wouldn't have given up as much if they didn't value Quinn as much as they obviously did.

[Tom]

I've got a burning question that I wish someone could answer for me.

Why does a team try to win meaningless games at the end of the year only to give up half the franchise to move up a couple of spots in the draft the following year? Makes no sense. If only they would've lost those last meaningless games, they would've had the draft pick in the first place.

I say there's no shame in throwing a few games. Look at the 1998 draft. To move up to the second pick in the draft, the Chargers traded two first-round picks, a second-round pick, reserve linebacker Patrick Sapp and four-time pro bowler Eric Metcalf. They used their pick on Ryan Leaf!

Lose an extra few games, get yourself a future HOF QB. Win a meaningless game, get yourself Ryan Leaf.

I'm being fecitious, but just wondering.

I got two words for you . CHAD JOHNSON. Trade your second rounder and ryan nece. Get it done

[Mitch]

Why aren't we trading some of our excess quarterbacks for draft picks?

[steve]

Matt Ryan QB is their pick, if he not there then trade out .Pick some needs later on.If Bucs get him , keep best QB out of the rest.

[Dwayne]

hey stephen, i was just wondering where is all the talk about ray rice, he was talked about so much coming out of college but now it seems hes not even talked about with the other running backs coming out.

[AnitaDK]

Biggest problem I see with this theory is, who would want to trade up? It is not just with wide receivers that the gap between late first and early second round doesn't seem to be big at all, that seems to be the case with most positions, more so than in most years. There is a lack of elite blue-chip prospects in this draft but plenty of depth.

If somebody suddenly starts falling through the draft that the Bucs don't need but a few other teams like a lot but didn't think they would be able to get, maybe something can be done. The Bucs would have to get very lucky for that to happen but if it does it would definitely be the right move.

[Aaron]

If Devin Thomas, Mike Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie or Aqib Talib are still on the board at 20, it would be foolish for the Bucs to trade down. If all 4 of those players are gone however, then trading down is probably a decent idea if someone is willing to give them a decent deal for it.

[Tony M.]

I'm not convinced trading down is the best option this year. We have a variety of needs that could be addressed at the 20 spot. I believe the fact of the matter is that someone will fall to us at 20 that will be worth taking, regardless of whether or not it is a "need" position. There are a great deal of OT's this year, should be a couple of worthy running backs on the board, and of course some fair wide receivers. If of course, there are no CB's of value at that spot. (Which I continue to contend is our best case scenario.)

I'm not against trading down, especially if all of the first rounders we had on our board are gone. But I seriously doubt that we won't tap some first round talent at the 20 spot this year.

[Mark]

trading down isnt that bad but it takes the excitement away on the the first day of the draft for bucs fans!

[Rube]

Trade down? For some average talent but will add depth. The Bucs should stay at 20 and not trade down. If Jenkins is gone someone like Talib or Cromartie will still be there. Tampa will get a quality CB at 20 and then a WR in the 2nd.

[JS]

trading down is an option IF mike jenkins, talib, chromartie are gone (aka 1st round corners) that way we get more picks later on to add depth.. and we could trade simms for a 6th pick and find our steal of the draft...

[DR]

I'm not sure why any of you are hoping that the Bucs would get any pick for Simms. I guess its wishful thinking, there could be a moron for a GM that would make a trade, but really Simms has absolutely no trade value. Stephen has already stated the obvious, the kid hasn't played in two years. He didn't prove much as a starter when he did play and right now, you would have to say he is a huge medical risk. I can't name a player who has played without a spleen in the past. The fact that teams know that the Bucs don't plan on using him doesn't help them either. I don't think any team would plan on having Simms as a starter this year so getting him this early would be no big deal. They'll play the waiting game and wait for the bucs to do the inevitable and release him. Simms has no trade value.

[Alan Kapell]

If the Bucs trade down, Allen & Gruden will trade the picks for "washed" up veterans like: B Griese. Bucs need a REAL GM / Director Of Player Personnel. B Allen is not the answer & I still believe he is just a rubber stamp for Gruden. 2008 schedule is "insane" & Bucs just might only win 5 games & lose 11. Fasten your seat belts, it will be a bumpy ride.....

[Michael]

Alan, Griese is a GOOD back-up quarterback. I seem to remember that he lead the Bucs to a 5-1 record before tearing his ACL in 2005. People point to his interceptions, especally the 4 int game in 2005 vs. the Lions. He had a concussion!! That is my belief. He took a NASTY shot to the head, and from there, he really struggled. Look, if they expected him to start all 16 games, MAYBE that would be crazy, but Garcia is the guy. Yes, Garcia does get injured, and Griese will likely play this year, but it is CERTAINLY better to have Griese that the 2006 situation, with Bruce Gradkowski as the back-up, isnt it? And just so you know, they Bucs will finish 14-2 at worst in my opinion. The only games that worry me are San Diego and Dallas, but the Cowboys I think we can, and will beat. Sorry DR. Keep up the good work Bruce Allen.

[George L Hicks]

I think trading down to example with Atlanta. They give up one of theirs #2,#3 and maybe Chris Simms could be package with the #1 and maybe get a #5.

[Sky]

Wow this is insane...you folks all know what we need and we need a WR (Anquan Boldin isn't happy, bring him home baby!), then we need to address the cornerback situation followed by DT in the draft! We have the money...let's make it happen, I would love to see our BUCCANEERS win the SUPERBOWL in TAMPA!!!!