Gruden won't like these numbers

If you spend anytime around Jon Gruden, you quickly come to learn he isn't fond of the use of statistics to measure success or failure. On more than one occasion, Gruden has said "stats are for losers."

So, if you're reading this Jon, consider yourself warned. There are some startling numbers that are worth examining, so let's do that.

If you've watched the Bucs this season, you know they've been reluctant -- or, perhaps, unable -- to get the ball down the field. The passing game has been more horizontal than vertical, and it shows.

The Bucs are tied for 28th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt with 5.5 yards. Just three teams have a lower average: The Bengals, Chiefs and Browns. To reinforce the point, consider that the Bucs have recorded just five pass completions over 20 yards. Only the Ravens and Browns have fewer.

So, it's no wonder that despite leading the league with 205 pass attempts, the Bucs rank eighth in passing yardage with 1,077 yards -- well behind league-leading New Orleans (1,629).

Here's another reason this is troubling: When the Bucs find themselves in third-and-long situations, as they frequently do, it's difficult to convert when the majority of your passes gain fewer than six yards (for the record, the Bucs are tied for 22nd in third-down conversion ratio at 35 percent).

I don't have the answers, but I do know this: You have to make some big plays in the NFL. All the good teams do. The Bucs like to think of themselves as one, so, these are some numbers that are worth keeping track of.

Comments

[Vince]

It will only get worse. The NFL is a copycat league. Until the Bucs can create a legitimate deep threat, teams will continue to play 2 deep defenses, which will force the Bucs into more and more checkdowns. The Bucs are still a "get ahead and hold onto the lead team."

The Bucs still have no playmakers at wide receiver. This is why they led the leagure last year in long drives (a lot of short passes and checkdowns, but did not fair as well scoring in the redzone. Blame the front office for failing to get a playmaker and/or pinning the Bucs hopes on an aging (and fragile) speed receiver. The Bucs front office chickens are coming home to roost.

[Stephen Blackehart]

I think Garcia will be more willing and able to stretch the field. Simms was the only real long-ball guy we had here, but he lacked other facets of the game. Garcia may get impatient and not let the deep routes open up at times, but at least he'll still usually get something positive out of it. Lets just hope he stays healthy.

[Valrico Rick]

Okay people, what is wrong with this picture? The Bears stacked the line and dared the Bucs to throw, they did and they won the game. Now teams are backing off and daring the Bucs to run and they won't. This isn't about a lack of a deep threat, this is about a head coach doing a visual examination of his own prostate! 'Nuff Said!

[aj]

EG has made big plays. Doesn't he lead the league in runs over 40 yards? If they let the running game wear teams down, instead of abandoning it for no reason, more long passing lanes will open up.

I acknowledge they couldn't run against the Bears. They had to pass that game.

[DR]

Gruden is right, stats are for losers. If you look at his offensive stats that you have shown, its got 'LOSER' written all over it.

[kurt]

The Bucs need to blitz more. They also need a worthy wide receiver and a younger QB with a strong arm and great decision making.

[Kurt]

DR has LOSER written all over it too.

[Billy]

These are the "stats" you bring to the table?

Hilarious. Yeah Stephen, I'm sure Gruden is scared to read the dribble you post on a daily basis.

[Leo in Canada]

How many times have we viewed receivers under thrown or waiting for the ball downfield this season? Not too many. Galloway use to consistently display his speed in many ways. Joey needs to reclaim his glory, DJax needs a shot, Bryant needs to speed it up or a trade needs to be made. Speed at receiver will also help open up the running game & shorter routes.

[Mark V]

Blah, blah, blah Stephen. Every team in the NFL has some facet of their game that can be considered a weakness, and I'm sure you can dig and find some stats to support each of them. Our weakness currently happens to be the passing game. Of course losing our number 1 receiver doesn't that affect that stat, does it? Sure we should have upgraded at receiver, but with who? Moss, Boldin, Roy Williams and don't forget all the support for the great Chad Johnson; even though none of them were ever really available. What other of the super free agent class can we look back on a say would have been worth the multi-million dollar contracts that they received? Here is the stat that counts and the only one that Gruden should be concerned about. The Bucs are currently tied with the 10th best record in the NFL. Not the best by a long shot, but lets call it the way it is. The team is far from perfect but the coaching staff is making the most out of the current situation and has every reason to expect steady improvements. GO BUCS!!!

[Tony F]

I think if Gracia struggles this week, you gotta bring in Luke. I believe he has the strongest arm, no? He can work on all of the rest but he won't be throwing 3 pics ( I hope). Get Bennett to return kicks (all of them) and also like that was laready stated, some trickery!

GO BUCS!!!

[Ron]

Stephen,
This has nothing to do with this post, but how about an update on Cadillac Williams. It's week six, which means the Bucs are going to have to make a decision on him soon.

[Mack]

Sorry Mark but you sound like these developments were a tragic surprise to well oiled offense, like losing Tom Brady. We've been offensively mediocre for years. We have the same salary rules as the other teams. We need someone who can evaluate young offensive talent. That's why Gruden likes the old guys, they've already shown what they can do. Unfortunately, their tread is thin or have lengthy criminal records before you can afford them. Glad we have very good defense.

[runs with scissors in front pocket]

Careful Stephen, Billy, Mark V and probably Jesse are going to stop reading the blog if you post anymore facts about the Gurudens so bright, you gotta wear shades offense. Thanks for the Lombardi Jon, but you have got to go now. Just have your O kneel 3 times and punt, so the D can get some scores.

[Adam]

With Galloway on his Rascal, this team has no deep threat. They have too many big, physical receivers but no speed on the outside. The Bucs will tell you they drafted Dexter Jackson as a receiver, but he has yet to line up on offense. Even if he's a decoy, let him run some go-routes and get the defense away from the line. No one on the Bucs can get any kind of yards-after-catch when there are 11 guys within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. This is Playstation football, people. It's not difficult.

[Mack]

Tony, I like your plan. Give Luke a shot. He's mobile so we can get more targets downfield. Use Bennett, get rid of Deckster, bring up one those young WR prospects from the practice squad. According to Mark, we're tied for 10th. From my perspective, there's not much difference in satisfaction between 10th and 30th, unless you're looking at draft position.

[poorlittlepinkus]

Wow. Horrifying stats! Can't wait for all the "Gone Gruden Gone" calls!

[Vince]

My point and I think it's the feeling of many on this page, is that we feel that we can't even say that we have sufficient information about our WR's and TE',s and even QB's for that matter, because the play calling has lacked balance and is so predictable! We can't say we have no legitimate deep threats, or the QB's can't get the ball down field, because the offense isn't being given an opportunity to excel! Any team no matter how great will be less effective and less potent, when every play they run is predictable and that's just logic! That being said I still think Gruden is a Genius coach, but he needs to use his brain!

[NINJA]

Any word on Galloway??? Thought it was a few week deal! Now he's never mentioned as if he needs to be placed on IR! What's going on? We don't even get updates. Can we look forward to getting him on the field at all this year?

[Jeff Garcia]

Lets put things in perspective here. Last season when expections were low I played well enough to win the NFC South and save a couple jobs. (you've got to take the bad with the good ;)
Given the opportunity I again will exceed expectations and lead the Buc's to the postseason. Can't promise it will be as NFC South Champions as the Panthers may have that locked up, but by the end of the season we will have cleaned up some of the issues you are discussing now and I guarentee we'll be ready for the SuperBowl here at Raymond James. Not sure yet whether it's as participants or spectators, but we will be ready!

[skp]

both QBs can throw the ball downfield (not extremely well, but neither guy does anything extremely wall), they just don't have alot of guys to target downfield....until we have dexter jackson or galloway operating as real threats outside, we just can't scare people beyond 15 yards.

[Vince]

And I'm saying that Jerry Rice was not the fastest guy on the field, that Terell Owens isn't the fastest guy on the team. DO I make my point? We don't KNOW until we give them a balanced attack! Great teams have one thing in common, BALANCE!

[DV]

Can we get Spurlock back?

[Dave T]

This falls squarely on Gruden and "his" QB's. The only QB on the roster with the ability to stretch the field is McCown. He could single-handedly change the dynamic of this putrid offense. He has the ability to stretch the field with his arms and legs. He had the longest run from scrimmage last year, by anybody, not just QB's. Dump the geriatric twins!

[PantFan]

The NFC South could be the next toughest conference behind the NFC East. TB has always been a tough competitor along with NO and the young and up & coming Falcons. I hope we can contain Garcia this week ... his scrabbling has been a real challenge to us last year.IMHO two 5 yard passes is all you need to move the chains and with Garcia's scrabbling ...our LB's will have their hands full ...should be a good game

[JP]

Uh yeah, I think what the Bucs need is a super fast wideout that has flypaper hands, is smart and also young and big. I think they also need a young QB that has a canon and is smart and big. And also a running back that is super fast, young, smart and big and has flypapaer hands. And a few young, smart and big linemen too. Yeah, that's what I think.

[trevor]

You have to consider that we have had big plays, but it was from the RUNNING GAME, which is just as good to me...

[Stephen]

Lets remember that alot of Gruden's offense is predicated on Yards after the Catch! You have to have playmakers that can not only get seperation but can make things happen after catching the ball. The percentage of plays going wrong greatly increase the more you try and force things downfield. The best percentage of plays come out of formation creativity and trying to get mismatches. I will agree that we lack a stud wr you know that one person who you know teams have to gameplan against and you know is going to get his touches. But with our style of play the long down and distances and early penalties really take us out of our game as well. Now defensively we will always be a contender but until we can get a wr that can produce some YAC's this offense will always look weak. Our offense has personel limitations as most of us know but to have a dominant defense in most cases the offense is not going to get the money to grab the elite talent. I'm not a Gruden hater or a bandwagon fan but I ask this question. Is it possible to have dominance on both sides of the ball? If the defense is stacked will that eliminate the ability to afford top notch talent? Also, not many teams are going to travel to Denver after they lost and get a win. We still had a chance just couldnt get the ball back. Long way to go! Go Bucs!!

[Quentin]

I'm in agreement that this has as much to do with the quarterback as it does the receivers or the playcalling. Griese simply doesn't look downfield. With Garcia back, I think we can expect more shots down the field, particularly to Antonio Bryant. We can also expect more sacks, but less interceptions.

On a side note, our return game is putrid right now. If you don't trust Spurlock to hold onto the ball or if he's not a good dual threat, I say free Clifton Smith!

[panther page]

heres another stat........we OWN you

[Stephen Holder]

Pretty much everyone here makes very valid points, which, unfortunately means one thing: The problems facing this offense are complex and numerous. That means there's no quick fix.

[George Leslie Hicks]

I think its time to show what Dunn and Bennett Duo can do. I'm sorry but Graham is not Carnell Williams. I've rather have the duo of Dunn / Bennett in the backfield with Garcia along with a dbl TE or Dbl Wr Set. The line is improving each week. Just throw out last week. They should have been 4 and 0 going into Denver last week. I really think that the Mile High Stadium did make a difference. If They had played the game in Tampa, Tampa would have won the game, period. Tampa got to get a deep threat playmaker somewhere besides A. Bryant. Go Bucs

[tj in dunedin]

the bucs need Kazmir Pena and Longoria! They can't do any WORSE!

[Brandon]

Kurty:

Finally off the Griese Kool-Aid, you said the Bucs need a QB with a stronger arm... Finally realize that I was spot on with my assessment of that piece of garbage (aka your hero, Griese)?

Stephen Holder:

Everyone including you wanted to talk about how sharp Griese looked during the preseason. This despite the obvious fact that no defenses challenged our receivers in the short zones. No criticism of a QB that in preseason averaged something like 5.5 yards per completion... talked about how impressive Griese was, despite the inexcusable INT vs the Jaguars that nailed the S in the chest. Stephen, usually I respect what you say, but you were all over Griese during the preseason, too. I told EVERYBODY that Griese is a bum that refuses to throw the ball in the deep or intermediate range and would really struggle when defenses challenged our receivers... then the bum gets a shot at playing and it is all proven true. As sure as Pacman Jones will get arrested again and leopard won't change his spots, Griese will opt to throw underneath most of the time and will become utterly predictable and turnover prone when defenses challenge the short zones.

[G]

We are going to spank the cats!!!!!!!

[Brandon]

Leslie:

You're right, Graham is not Carnell Williams, he's about 100X better. Graham runs with power, Williams stutter steps and jukes and loses yardage, Graham catches the ball well, Williams drosp 50% of the passes that hit him in the hands, Graham gains 3 when there's nothing there, Williams loses 2 when there's 3 there, Graham doesn't get hurt, Williams could never stay healthy... and as far as the misconception that Williams is a breakaway threat... Graham has 3 runs this season over 40 yards, more than Williams has had over his entire career. Chew on that and EG's 5.9 yards per carry, Williams hasn't averaged 4 or more since his rookie year and hasn't done much of anything other than suck since the 3rd game of his rookie season. Carnell Williams is terrible and he should be manning the french fry machine next to Griese who should be running the drive-thru window.

[John P]

Stephen - a question:

While we all see the yards per attempt by the quarterback - I'd like to know what the yards after catch are by the receivers? What's the ranking there?

I can't see it being very good when none of the guys playing split end or flanker have the ability to get separation. While we're on the subject of receivers - which team leads the league in drops?

If it's not the Bucs, they've got to be close to the top.

Quarterbacks are human, and it's darn hard to have confidence in your people when they're covered like blankets on every route. A QB will get pretty conservative if he thinks making the tougher throws is a bad business decision. Even Marino and Favre struggled when they had sub-talented guys running routes for them. No surprise as to what's happening here.

[STIXX]

This team isnt near as bad as everyone makes it out to be. All the teams are good and wins are hard to come by in the NFL. So a healthy WR would help. Thats really our only glaring weakness. We have good RB`s,good TE`s,decentO-LINE and we have good wiley veteran QB`S. The only thing that kills us is WR`s. And the other teams prepare fo us as such. If we had WR`s we could stretch the field and make much better progress.

[Babs22]

what everyone has to realize is that without a deep threat it doesnt matter...this offense is built around a big physical receiver who can go across the middle on a whim and a back who can pick up 4 to five yards consistently. We have both of these weapons in Bryant, Clayton (I know first round bust but still capable) and Hilliard, and also Earnest and Dunn. The problem is we get down too early and FORCE the pass. Opponents already know to blitz or play zone....what im trying to get here is RUN THE BALL

[Stephen Holder]

Brandon, you're absolutely right. But here's what I want to point out: when I was making those claims about Griese, I never said he should play ahead of Garcia. I actually think they have a better chance to win with Garcia under center. His mobility, if it's back, adds a dimension Griese could never offer. And besides, that was the preseason. It's not like defenses were game-planning for the Bucs at that point. And remember, his efficiency came in those long, 12 and 13-play drives. Those things don't work in the regular season because too many things can go wrong on drives that long.

[Stephen Holder]

John P: As to your question, I don't know the exact numbers, because that's not a precise stat that is easily accessible. I can tell you that with the possible exception of Michael Clayton, the Bucs don't really have a group of receivers renowned for their YAC (yards after catch). So, when you run short routes and throw short passes, you have short gains. It's basically that simple. And it's not just the playcalling that's a factor here. You've got to protect the QB long enough to get those receivers into longer routes and, as you astutely pointed out, these guys have to separate from the coverage. Otherwise, you're throwing into the jaws of the defense. I can't believe I'm saying this, but this team really, really misses Galloway. I think many here know that I've never been reluctant to rip him for his effort, etc. But the man can stretch the field.

[mike]

It would probably help if we had a decent quarterback. How about drafting one and developing him instead of taking journeyman retreads and trying to make them into stars. Lets face it, the "Rich Gannon" phenomenon was a one time deal. Its not a model for success. All of the real contenders in this league have a franchise quarterback and in most cases, have developed him from a pup.

[Kalind]

Time for Josh Johnson? Not yet. Love the arm, love the decision making, but should we land TJ WhoseYourMomma, or Roy Williams, we're going to need a serious QB, one that has the arm to make the tough throws, and the strength to make them 40 yrds downfield. I'm tired of ancient breakable "vets" who cant last for more than two years. P.S. Pull Jovan Haye on First down please, and lets get a BIG body in there to stuff the Run. Cory Redding is going to be traded...... Anyone? Bueller?

[Matt Millen]

I think that the Bucs should fire gruden, after all I heard that I former GM turned coaching candidate is looking for a job.

[Jesse]

It's no surprise that there are people who are still afraid to use their real names with their typical presumptuous responses. I, like many Buccaneers fans, am frustrated in how few times this team has tried to stretch the field, but if there's anybody who really believes that Gruden doesn't know how important it is to do so, I got a bridge I want to sell you. Here are some facts, thanks to NFL.com: in 2004, Gruden's offense produced 50 pass plays of 20yd+, the most in his tenure, 10 for 40yd+; Buc's record: 5-11. In 2002, 37 for 20+, only 6 for 40+; everybody knows the record & who won the Super Bowl that year. In each of his years, Sam Wyche's teams had 40 or more pass plays of 20yd+, & 11 (1993-94) & 13 (1994-95) of 40yd+; Wyche's best record: 7-9, granted his best defense ranked 21st in total D. Interestingly, in 1999, 26 pass plays for 20+, 5 for 40+; the Bucs went to NFC Championship. The biggest stats I've seen: how many points the team scores & allows per game. In '99, the Bucs averaged 16.9, allowed 14.7--avg. pass play: 6.2. In 2002, the Bucs averaged 21.6, allowed 12.3--avg. pass play: 6.5.

With all that said, there are some things that concern me with Gruden, I'll admit; just because he won a Super Bowl here, does not mean he isn't going to get some heat. I don't care what anybody posts, honestly; free speech is a great thing, & so, no, I don't want anyone to be banned from making any stupid comments, which just expose the people who post them for their stupidity. The personal attacks bother me because no one knows anybody here; it's just lame to do that, but it, also, exposes people. As far as football is concerned, I don't care who plays on offense, I don't care what the opposing D does, I know I would take shots downfield; it doesn't make sense not to try. The loss to Denver still bothers me; the comment that Gruden made about the Panthers D that he 'had to turn off the film & go for a walk' bothers me. I've thought, prior to the season, that the Panthers would be the team to beat in the NFC South, not the Saints, but the Bucs won't just lay down & get the snot beat out of 'em; I could be wrong, but the D is only going to get better. The Panthers can keep talking; I love it! The Bucs D is capable of making it real difficult for anyone to score, no matter who they play; Carolina has many weapons & will be as tough to defend as any team they'll face this year, but the #1 offense only put up 16 against this D. I definitely want to see Tampa smack up the Panthers, but they'll have to play lights out to do it. GO BUCS!

[Nick]

Here are some stats too...
No. 9 , 11, 7, 12 in 4 major offensive stat catagories!

When Joey comes back, we will have a deep threat. Also, if Garcia would have shut his mouth instead of crying for a contract he already HAD, he wouldnt have gotten himeslf benched, and Griese wouldnt have had control to dink and dunk like he did during preseason.

Bottom line, I hate 3 kinds of fans.
1) Bandwagon fans
2) Fans who think they know more about football than NFL coaches! IF your a fan of the Bucs, they your a fan of the Coach, qb, wr, everyone! you may have a favorite, you may feel someone is better than the other, but stick by your team. I remember when everyone wanted to dump mckay in the bay and bench (among other terrible racist things) Doug Williams back then.
I say go with Luke who had great games last year. Enough of the shady hills nursing home for qbs here.

And posters, if you wouldnt have the guts to say something to someones face, dont type it in. thats squeemish and girly, unless you are a girl, in that case its ok.

We are all Bucs fans, were all Americans. Lets act like. Enough people hate us. Stop hating each other ......