Q-Poll: Crist Way Ahead, Smith Gaining on Davis

A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Charlie Crist swamping Tom Gallagher by 25 points (57 percent to 32 percent) in next week's Republican primary for governor. On the Democratic side, Jim Davis is ahead of Rod Smith, 43 percent to 32 percent, but that race appears much closer.

Smith is rapidly gaining ground on Davis. The Tampa congressman held a 28-point lead over Smith (47-19) in the last Quinnipiac survey, last month. By comparison, Crist has held steady: His lead is almost identical to his 55-32 advantage in the Connecticut university's poll in late July.

"It will take a political storm a lot bigger than Ernesto to give Gallagher much chance to defeat Crist in the GOP primary," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The Democratic race, on the other hand, is by no means over."

Six days before Election Day, the poll shows as many as 42 percent of likely Democratic primary voters don't know enough about Davis or Smith to form an opinion.

The poll shows Republicans have a more favorable view of Crist than of Gallagher. The ratio of favorable to unfavorable opinion on Crist is 51 percent to 11 percent, while Gallagher's fave-unfave rating is 32 percent to 17 percent. Qunnipiac reports 18 percent of Crist voters who said they might change their minds before voting, while 27 percent of Gallagher voters said that.

Quinnipiac surveyed 317 likely Republican primary voters and 312 likely Democratic primary voters from Aug. 23-28. That means this survey was done before the second televised debate on Monday night. (MOE: +/- 5.5 percentage points for Republicans, +/- 5.6 points for Democrats).

Comments

We Dems ... we like to keep life interesting, huh.

Simply amazing though - think back six months ago - Rod Smith who? Good job Smith team!

Wow... CC has a bigger lead over TG than Nelson has over Harris! I am seeing more and more similarities between Tom and Katherine.

I'm beginning to realize that SurveyUSA poll that had Crist 60, Gallagher 31 was much more accurate than the Florida Chamber poll at 39-29...Quinnipac much more verifies the former

I guess the phony poll that the Florida Camber release suspiciously at 4 pm on a Friday by a pollster no one uses has now been shown to be a fraud.

The real question is who was really behind this desperate ploy trying to prop up Tom Gallagher?

Come one Chamber, do tell?

Hmmmmmmm,

Quinippiac has Crist at 57 and Strategic Vision at 52 after a two week false barrage by TaxingTom.com.

That's all folks.

It's over for Tommy and his team. Look like the dream dies here and now. See ya.

Sorry Brett, Albert and Terminator, looks like your candidate is flawed. Sorry it took you guys a lot longer to figure that out than the rest of us. Have fun in your next career. Politics is not your thing.

The Chamber really, really looks foolish pushing that phoney poll last Friday. I wonder who paid them to do that. Not a good way to score points with our next Governor.

Strategic Vision poll released last night
Below are the poll results based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in Florida, aged 18+, and conducted August 25-27, 2006. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

14. If the election for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2006 were held today between Attorney General Charlie Crist and Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher, whom would you vote for? (Republicans only)
Charlie Crist 52%
Tom Gallagher 36%
Undecided 12%

15. If the election for the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2006 were held today between Congressman Jim Davis and State Senator Rod Smith, whom would you vote for? (Democrats only)
Jim Davis 43%
Rod Smith 37%
Undecided 20%

16. If the election for Governor were between Charlie Crist, the Republican and Jim Davis, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Charlie Crist 49%
Jim Davis 41%
Undecided 10%

17. If the election for Governor were between Tom Gallagher, the Republican and Jim Davis, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Tom Gallagher 39%
Jim Davis 39%
Undecided 22%

18. If the election for Governor were between Charlie Crist, the Republican and Rod Smith, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Charlie Crist 48%
Rod Smith 43%
Undecided 9%

19. If the election for Governor were between Tom Gallagher, the Republican and Rod Smith, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Rod Smith 40%
Tom Gallagher 38%
Undecided 22%

20. If the election for Chief Financial Officer were held today between State Senate President Tom Lee and State Representative Randy Johnson, whom would you support? (Republicans only)
Tom Lee 45%
Randy Johnson 29%
Undecided 26%

21. If the election for the Republican nomination for United States Senator in 2006 were held today, whom would you support? (Republicans only)
Katherine Harris 38%
William McBride 21%
Leroy Collins, Jr. 19%
Peter Monroe 5%
Undecided 17%

22. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Katherine Harris?
Favorable 17%
Unfavorable 61%
Undecided 22%

23. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bill Nelson?
Favorable 49%
Unfavorable 11%
Undecided 40%

24. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Katherine Harris, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 63%
Katherine Harris 20%
Undecided 17%

25. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or William McBride, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 58%
William McBride 22%
Undecided 20%

26. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Leroy Collins, Jr., the Republican?
Bill Nelson 57%
Leroy Collins, Jr. 23%
Undecided 20%

27. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Peter Monroe, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 63%
Peter Monroe 15%
Undecided 22%

Terminator - most people in this game have forgotten more about politics than you will ever know. In case you haven't figured it out yet, your political IQ is equivalent to a third grader.

[gatordem]

Well folks, it’s coming down to crunch time and the undecideds are being whittled away. Undecideds now are down to 25%. With Jim Davis at 43% and Rod Smith at 32% things are looking very good for Jim Davis.

For Smith to win, he needs to pick up 19% to get to the magic 51%. Jim Davis only needs 8%. Another way to look at this is that just over ¾ (76%) of the undecideds will have to break for Smith, while just less than 1/3 (32%) need to break for Davis. With the backlash that Rod Smith is seeing due to his US Sugar funded slime machine attacks on Jim Davis, I’d say that getting over 75% of the undecideds is a pretty tall order for Rod Smith.

[Ron Mills]

Steve
Smith is rapidly gaining ground on Davis?
Just 2 day ago the Chamber had Davis up by 8 points now we see it is really 11 points, Gaining ground?
boy you sure hard working for Crist
trying to pump up Smith, just like big Sugar and the insurance big wigs.
Do you really think the Dems will be that stupid?

"...and so, fellow Republicans, as I prepare to transition from public life, I now turn my attention to trying to make as much money as possible during my final four months in office. I promised my wife there would be no more daytrading of stocks, as I was not very good at it, so I must work to enrich myself through awarding "legal work" and contracts to my friends, who will then provide me with the golden parachute in January. You won't have Gallagher to kick around anymore, gentlemen, for this is my final press conference, until my arraignment."
- Tom Gallagher
September 5, 2006
9:06 PM
Miami

Folks, you heard it here first - Election Day(s) ended Monday with Ernesto. What happens from yesterday to next Tuesday is largely irrelevant.

Ernesto changed the entire dynamic.

[Rich]

Thats a pretty dumb analysis. Tropical storms, weak ones at that, change nothing. People will be back out voting tomorrow thru tuesday. The 4 hurricanes in 2004 changed nothing as well. Totally irrelevant.

Are you saying that the Chamber, Mike Murphy, Brett, and Tom have been lying to us about the race tightening?

Can't be true. Tom said the election was all about trust

The bulk of people vote on election day. That will be next Tuesday and unaffected.

A couple of things about the Quinnipac poll disturb me. One, the sampling is very small. The other is that percentage of these "likely" voters who said they might change their mind on election day. It is almost as if they are saying well, these are our findings, but we might change them and we are not really sure and anyway it is just a handful of people.

Doesn't make me feel safe. We need to get the CC vote out the old fashioned way.

[Ron Mills]

on Sept. 6th
Tom Gallagher, Margaret Hostetter, JOHN STEMBERGER and Barbra Collier
will Form The New Florida Taliban Party

Let's see how the Gallagher people spin the polls today. I predict their response will be A) They are all bogus polls except for the Broward Women's online poll and the Chamber poll (which really with the margin of error that is most definitely on our side makes us on like one or two points down) B) Our microtargeted voters who will be out in force on elected day didn't get asked C) No one is paying attention yet.

Will Mckinnley???? Hello??? Do you get it yet???

Will Mckinnley???? Hello??? Do you get it yet???

[zenator]

Termie:

There is a Zen expression that states: “Fools believe what they think, not what they see. The wise believe what they see, not what they think“

There have now been 3 polls issued over the past few days. All show TG in the 30% range. They differ mainly in terms of likely CC voters vs. undecided voters . Depending upon the poll the likely CC voters fall basically in the 40-55% range with the undecideds making up the difference.

Six weeks ago, the polls showed TG in the low to mid 20 range. Two debates, $5 million later, the polls show that his numbers have moved a mere 5-7%.

What one SEES is that TG still has no traction. What one SEES is that TG has exhausted his war chest. What one SEES are endless CC ads trumpeting his endorsements and attacking TG, who lacks the funds to respond. What one SEES are the polls showing TG far behind with time rapidly running out. What one SEES is an emerging landslide victory in favor of CC.

As the lowly zenator advised recently, the CC lead stabilized at a low of about 17% before the numbers began turning to reflect the increased investment of advertising dollars etc. CC, not TG, is the candidate, who is gaining positive momentum. I expect that the internal polling for the last 3 days will indicate that CC’s lead today is 20 plus points and growing.

Maybe all those people in the poll didn't get the mailer about CC's liberal sellout of Republican values.

The Chamber poll done by the idiot Matt TLauer Towery tarnishes the Chamber's reputation. Why they switched from McLaughlin, who is at least respected and hired by real candidates, is beyond me. Someone over there should be beaten around with a hammer. If you are going to be serious with releasing public polling, you cannot switch pollsters within a month of the election. Credibility is zero. Seriously.

8:15 are you THAT worries about CC's chances? Gee, I would have that insecurity checked out.

Last Friday's Chamber poll was an intentional manipulation to goad on the media to hype Gallagher's viability in the race. Crist has never slipped below a 20 point lead for the past 8 weeks. The Chamber has been doing a lot of questionable things. Why are they kowtowing to Storms by withholding Murman help in SD #10? Why did they endorse Bolanos but then put so little of their own money into the race? (Taking money from others to put in play does not count). The Chamber is not going to be on the playing field for a long time...

815 - they mailed one million of the things, so they say, anyway. Who were they targeting, North Florida Democrats or South Georgia Republicans?
They saw it, they just do not beleive it because TG destroyed his own credibility this year. Not with the changes, with the charges.

I love how Gallagher's latest commercial shows him committing a crime once again. Stealing your opponents campaign signs is ILLEGAL! I hope charges are brought against him. That would be sooooo funny! Could they get handcuffs around those pudgy wrists of his?

``It would be hard to think of a candidate who has blown that large a lead with so little time remaining until the actual voting,'' Brown said.

Crist's advantage was bolstered by other questions asked of the likely GOP voters. While 18 percent of Crist supporters said they might change their mind, 27 percent of Gallagher backers said they might change theirs.

And Crist enjoyed a 51 percent favorable compared to an 11 percent unfavorable standing compared to 32 percent who favorably viewed Gallagher and 17 percent who ranked the CFO as unfavorable.

Gallagher is leading among teen girls in south america

Nice tip Tom

I guess Gallaghers blatant disregard for the law made him think that no one would notice that he stole campaign signs. Of course, he did it with impunity because he feels he is above the law - like breaking and entering, stealing dogs, assault, driving while intoxicated, insider trading... etc, etc, etc

There is a reason that the Strategic Vision poll has to get posted in the comments.... It is completely bogus.

None the less---11 points in 7 days? Right...........

[terminator]

Size 12, tomorrow!

You've got to be kidding terminated...

Seriously---You've GOT NOTHING--especially a JOB after Sep. 5.

Today's Miami Herald Article - Rivals draw line in the Glades

"One of the Democrats running for governor once voted for an Everglades cleanup bill so reviled by activist Marjory Stoneman Douglas that she took her name off it. Environmentalists assailed what became the Everglades Forever Act as a giveaway to the sugar industry.

The candidate was Jim Davis, who as a member of the Florida Legislature approved the controversial 1994 bill. Yet he's been raising hackles about his opponent for governor, state Sen. Rod Smith, voting for the measure, backed by the sugar industry, when it returned to the Legislature in 2003.

Davis is likely to continue that line of attack -- without mentioning his own vote -- through the final stretch of the Sept. 5 primary campaign. Davis also opposed a penny tax on sugar proposed in 1996 to help pay for Everglades restoration."

I see the spin from the St. Pete Times blog (no offense Adam, you rock).

So Davis is still ahead in all the polling, and the margins are from 6-11. With less than 1 week left, a week which has been effected by ernesto, is that enough for smith to catch up. Honestly everyone is assuming that the undecideds are going to be voting. I have a feeling they won't be. Also i don't know what smith can do to swing over those Davis voters.

Matt Lauer is the travel guy on NBC!

Terminator, the size 12 you mean is ... that thing we discussed, right?

Gallagher's negatives are only a percentage of what they could be. Termie you know very well that the Crist camp has gone easy on him. There are so many more skeletons in his closet that have been left untouched. His "pro-life" position certainly does not match his prior actions and you know it. This could have all been avoided if Gallagher had been a Statesman and bowed out gracefully when the gang of ten ask him to..but instead we find ourselves in a nasty nuclear political war that is splitting the party...all because Gallagher's self-interest apparently trumps the imporance of the party keeping the Governor's mansion. Fortunately, CC is a fantastic candidate who appears poised to not only win the nomination, but is well-positioned to win the General Election as well.

The best part of Election 2006 has been the entertainment from the commentary here on the "Buzz". True, it has lacked real drama but the comedy was unsurpassed. I think all great comedy shows have a foil, someone who is just a brick shy of a load, like Frank Burns in MASH*** or George in Seinfeld. Not someone you really dislike, but that allows you to shake your head knowingly and say "what a jerk" with disdain but with some compassion for the fact they just don't get it.

I think Terminator has served that role for us, and I would like to ask all the rest of you to join with me in asking Terminator to hang around here going into the general election to keep the Board interesting even though Gallagher is gone.

Where would we be without the contrast between Terminator's wishful thinking, contrasted with the incisive wisdom of Zenator? The world will not be a better place.

Rod Smith is down anywhere from 6-11 points. However, the undecideds won't vote, or won't vote in large numbers, and therefore, Davis wins the primary 56-44.

Well done! Terminator, the "Frank Burns" of the BuzzBlog. So we now have THREE polls showing the Crist lead holding steady or growing...for the last year we have heard the same excuses and promises..people aren't paying attention yet, wait until Gallagher starts advertising, the polls are bogus, and of course "wait until the OTHER shoe drops"...at some point you have to face reality termie.

[terminator]

I will be here, campaigning for the Eventual Governor, Tom Gallagher, who has shown the fortitude to stick to a close race and come out ahaed, even after the slanderous comercials and pocketed media have unrelentlessly bashed the stately TG. TG has shown that no matter the circumstance, he will not back down. It will take more than ethics findings, campaign team defections, negative past reflections, change in personal beliefs and lack of fundraising to get him to back out. And in the end he will prevail. The size 12 is coming to a forehead near you!
Go TG

Undecideds this late in the game DO NOT VOTE. JIM DAVIS BY 19%

The only place Gallagher will be called governor is right here on this blog.

I told you TGers excuse for the poll numbers is that the polls are bogus! See my post at 8:08 am and the losers post at 8:44 am.

[Rich]

Termie,

WOW! As Oreilly says "Keep drinking the Kool-aid". It seems to be sending you into fantasyland.

Personally, I had not problem with Gallagher until 2 weeks ago. I voted for Crist, but would have been fine with TG. But his desperate measures and slanderous attacks (which he started, breaking the 11th commandment first) have made me very upset with him and his staff.

If you noticed, TG favorability rating from July 30 to August 30 dropped by 12% among registered Republicans. (Quinnipiac) That shows im not the only one upset at his attacks.

[terminator]

Quinicrapiac and Strategic badvision are a farse. The womens club poll and the chamber polls are way more accurate. Its all a ruse to make the voters think the race is over. It will come back to bite you guys, as nobody will vote now, that is, except for the ones we have microtargeted. I know a nice plastic surgeon who will be able to get rid of that footprint on your forehead after tomorrow.

[Rich]

Like i said, keep drinking the kool-aid, and come back next wednesday, and we will talk.

[Rich]

i won't need your help. you'll need a new identity when this is all over, terminator.

So please don't burn any chits to get an appointment for me.

[Rich O]

I guess i need a new identity too, since there is another Rich here.. Im the one with the kool-aid comments.