Mason-Dixon Results In

It's official: The Mason-Dixon poll released today also shows a comfortable lead for Charlie Crist over Jim Davis, 51-36.

The Orlando Sentinel, which commissioned the poll along with other media outlets, quoted pollster Brad Coker. "Crist has the money to stay on TV and people know him and generally like him." Davis, he said, remains largely unknown. "He's a blank slate. And Crist is going to be able to define him anyway he wants."

Comments

I always loved him back in the day when he was on Q-105.

Crist RULES!!!!!!!

Davis said (spin of course) that Mason Dixon always favors republicans, but I just researched 9 other races, and they were within 2 points of the national poll averages on EVERY race except this one. They are accurate.

They have Allen up 4, in VA
They have Gibbons up 9, in NV
They have Blagochevic up 10 in IL

These are just 3 examples of how close they are to others like Rasmussen and Survey USA.

GO CRIST!!!!!!!

Now I have added up the polls from the 8 pollsters latest results. (Rasmussen, Survey USA, Strat. Vision, Research 2000, Lawyer Poll, Zogby, Mason Dixon, and Chamber)

The avg is Crist up 9.5 points.

Read it and weep liberals.

wow! 15!!!!!!!!!!!

[zenator]

The Mason-Dixon poll including cross tab information is available via link from the Orlando Sentienel article.

The poll was conducted 9/20-22 with a 4% MOE. CC leads by approximately 55 to 32 for JD throughout FL, except the SE, where JD leads 48 to 41. CC leads in every demographic group (race, age, sex) except AA, where JD leads 79 to 7. CC favorable rating is 54 to 13 unfavorable. JD's favorable rating is 27 to 13.

If the Mason- Dixon poll represents an accurate snapshot then it reflects a fundamental shift in dynamics. On the strengh of his media campaign, CC has now succeeded in crossing the magic 50% barrier, while eroding JD's support thru contrast ads. And that is the picture as of 6 days ago without measuring the benefit to CC of another 6 days of unopposed media buys.

I suspect that the McLaughlin survey probably reflects a similar picture given that the results are basically the same as Mason- Dixon.

[zenator]

The Mason-Dixon poll including cross tab information is available via link from the Orlando Sentienel article.

The poll was conducted 9/20-22 with a 4% MOE. CC leads by approximately 55 to 32 for JD throughout FL, except the SE, where JD leads 48 to 41. CC leads in every demographic group (race, age, sex) except AA, where JD leads 79 to 7. CC favorable rating is 54 to 13 unfavorable. JD's favorable rating is 27 to 13.

If the Mason- Dixon poll represents an accurate snapshot then it reflects a fundamental shift in dynamics. On the strengh of his media campaign, CC has now succeeded in crossing the magic 50% barrier, while eroding JD's support thru contrast ads. And that is the picture as of 6 days ago without measuring the benefit to CC of another 6 days of unopposed media buys.

I suspect that the McLaughlin survey probably reflects a similar picture given that the results are basically the same as Mason- Dixon.

[seminolejoe]

Charlie is going to lead teh way in the Bay area especially. so much for those house and senate seats that were in play.

Crist supporters will stay home if his lead gets too big.
Harris is going to lose big, CC is going to win big. Why bother showing up ?
You can't go wrong with Long. Vote Janet Long.

Looks like that 6 point poll over the weekend was a fraud too

[gatordem]

Zenator has put up a good analysis of the poll results. This poll coupled with the Florida Chamber poll seems to represent some bad news for the Davis campaign.

I know, you are all waiting for me to "spin" these results. Sorry to disappoint y'all but in the words of GHW Bush I'm "not gonna do it". I do have a couple of thoughts running around in my "limp wrist liberal brain."

First, I wonder why these two latest polls are so different than the two before them (Sun-Sentinel and Rasmussen)? And, second, while these results are not good, I see some potential silver linings. But in keeping with my "no spin" pledge I am NOT going to share them with you.

I would just state that I hope the FDP and Davis can get off the dime "soon" and get on the air.

So now we LIKE the Chamber poll is that it?

Gatordem,

I give you respect for not spinning the result. Sometimes when I hear you say something is a statistical tie within the margin of error, to me thats spin... if there are many polls showing the same result.

I tend to look at all polls, throw out any outliers, and then avg. Although now we have 8 polls, ranging from 5 to 15 point lead. So i would naturally assume it is somewhere around a 10 point lead. Its a nice lead, but the reps still need to keep fighting. If they get too relaxed, they will lose it.

Strategic Vision just came out with their latest poll, Crist 50, Davis 40, Undecided 8. This replaces the one with the 49-41 result last month.

[zenator]

Gatordem:

If it is any consolation, I have a hard time believing that, with 79% of the AA vote, that Davis is polling in the mid-30's. I suspect that the two poll's showing him around 40% are closer to the mark. This would place the CC lead in the low double digits as of 9/22.

I do not want to get ahead of myself here, but I suspect that what we are seeing is the effect of CC's media onslaught. JD appears to have gambled that he could afford to stay off TV for a full 3 weeks following the primary, while husbanding his resources for the stretch run. It worked to some decree with Smith, but appears to have backfired here.

If CC really has crossed the 50% line with a double digit lead, then JD needs to rethink his game plan, which appears to be to win the first debate and then go hard late as he did against Smith.

The next week will be interesting. Ironically, I predict that JD will stay the course.

You cant win a Election if you cant win your own neighborhood. Crist wins by 7-9 points in the end.

[gatordem]

7:28

I haven't looked at the Chamber poll in detail yet. I understand they have changed pollsters, thhough. Probably couldn't be worse thatn their last one, so we'll see.

[moderate]

JD needs to get up soon. Hopefully the FDP will help, but I really don't think they have the money.

They could "3 Pack" some commercials for Jim, but from what I hear Skip and Sink haven't been sending enough soft money over there for that.

Has anyone noticed whether the FDP has seen a steady decline in money since Rod lost?

Do you really think that the people working on this are going to slow down? Charlie has put together the dream team; these people with little experience but they have a fight and drive that just doesn't stop. This group just doesn't want to win but they want to win big. Taking office after such a large margin of victory will make a little easier for them for the first 100 days.

FDP needs to raise money and spend it on Sink and Campbell. Spending it on JD is just throwing money away at this point.

Dems have a decent chancen on two statewide cabinet positions if they were to run TV and inform voters. It would be a smart step in trying to regain a foothold in the state for Dems rather than trying for Gov and blowing it and allowing Lee and McCollum to walk in.

Fighting CC at this point is futile....the Dems don't even have the trial bar as a lock anymore.

Amen to that 9:15.

I keep saying it over and over again. McCollum and Lee are both "beatable". They are both weak candidates that do not even have their base solidified. Lee, is neck and neck with Sink and he has the endorsement of Bush. He represents what is wrong with Tallahassee. We got big problems with taxes and insurance, and he is still bragging about lobby reform. McCollum comes across as just a worn-out, old politician that keeps trying to recycle himself.

The Democrats would be extremely smart to throw everything they have at the two Cabinet seats, earning themselves at least a foothold.

[Fed Up]

Moderate, The FDP has seen a steady decline in money since “Thermaflu” and her band of diaper-loads took over. They’ve pretty much chased every good, young, fresh, true Democrat out, or at least away from, the party. We’re in huge trouble. We’ll get our assess handed to us in November, probably pick another lame leader, and head into ’08 as f**ked-up as we are right now. The fruits-n-nuts have taken over the wheel and we’re headed for the rocks.

Fedup,

Wow, that is a pretty blunt and honest assessment. I did not expect that from you.

[tdubb]

That's the spirit 10:06! Glad to be in the foxhole with you. Seems to me you have two options, close your eyes or grab the f**king wheel.

I'm going to be LMAO if Crist wins and later comes out, and also makes same-sex marriage legal in FL. :-p

[Fed Up]

I’m fed-up with both parties, and the whole damn system. Wacko’s on the right, loonies on the left, you name it. If it’s not the Christian right-wing nuts, it’s the gay marriage left-wing nuts. Neither group is looking out for the majority who believes in God, but understands importance of the Separation of Church and State – and the majority who could give a damn about gay marriage. We have real issues that need real solutions, and we’re pissing and moaning about whom to blame for 9/11. LOOK IN THE MIRROR FREAKS, WE ALL ARE! It’s freaking insane.

I want a freaking leader, somewhere in this freaking government. Don’t hand me some panty-wasted bullshit “daddy’s boy” puppet either.

tdubb, I’ve been out of the foxhole trying to grab the wheel, but it’s too slippery cause of the Holy water and queer juice. Hell, we can’t even get the voters to get off their asses and vote. They want to bitch and bitch, but when it comes time to act… notta! What the hell are you doing about it?

[marketeer]

These numbers aren't much of a surprise. Except perhaps to the Davis dead-enders who've been trying to spin the notion that a 6 to 8 pt spread is a "statistical dead heat."

With Crist crossing the 50% threshold and expanding his lead to double-digits, the pressure on the Davis campaign is even greater to get his messages on the air so that he can introduce himself, define himself, and hopefully persuade the enormous number of Floridians who STILL DON'T KNOW who Jim Davis is and what he stands for.

The clock is ticking very loudly. I'm really amamzed that the Democrats don't seem to be listening!

If I were a Dem I wouldn't listen either, its best to not know its coming, swift and painless.