Poll: Crist 50, Davis 39

The latest Mason-Dixon poll shows 9 percent undecided and 2 percent supporting other candidates. The poll of 625 registered voters Monday and Tuesday has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. It finds Crist winning over 20 percent of Democrats and Davis 8 percent of Republicans. More here.

Comments

Crist is hearing footsteps.

If we remove the 5 point sympathy margin from Mason-Dixon, we can see that the difference is truly starting to thin out. Perhaps Charlie should get off the phone with Mark Foley and start getting out in the community.

what on earth is a "5 point sympathy margin"?

Charlie Crist has been shown, via all recent public polls, to have, at the very least, a double digit lead over Jim Davis. You guys can spin yourselves into the "momentum" delusion all you want but it doesn't change the fact that Jim Davis hasnt a snowball's chance in Miami if winning this race.

oouch This is the nail in jims campaign coffin. His poor civil rights vote, poor voting record has finished jim. Jim is his own worst enemy

Crist has a 44-39 percent lead in independent voters and is drawing 20 percent of Democrats and 15 percent of African-Americans - a usually stalwart Democratic base of support.

[zenator]

9:09 PM

Actually, recent experience suggests the opposite. Genrally, but not always, the Dem vote in Florida slightly underperforms the poll projections and the Repub vote exceeds the poll projections by about 3-4 points due to the superior Repub GOTV.

Good luck democrats. No one has yet detailed a plan for how Davis can win

Good luck democrats. No one has yet detailed a plan for how Davis can win

9:09

That 5 point sympathy margin was really funny. I was actually laughing. This race is right where I expected it. 11 point Crist Lead.

This has been my prediction for 3 weeks:

Crist 55%
Davis 44%
Linn 1%

As good a campaign as charlie has run and as bad a campaign as davis has run, i'm surprised crist isn't over 50.

crist wins this, but davis is still in the game

CRIST IS A JERK, AND MOST VOTERS IN FLA KNOW THIS., SO THE POLL IS THE POLL. AND WHAT REALLY COUNTS IS 11-7

[Imadashell]

With his war chest brimming with cash, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson has become something of a sugar daddy for Democrats.

The Orlando incumbent NELSON just gave $250,000 to the state Democratic Party. He also asked contributors to his re-election bid to donate to three key congressional races in Florida. That request has raised $30,000 since Nelson sent the e-mail last Thursday.He also emailed a photo of Charlie Crist dancing with mark foley in drag and asked the party to have the couple apply for a GIG on Dancing with the stars!

9:53

I didn't know the RPOF offices were open past 7. Don't you have another fundraiser/AA session to run to?

Tisk tisk 10:04. Did anyone give Skip Campbell a DUI test when he had his wreck this morning?

Remember, even if Davis doesn't beat crist, he can give a boost in some of these tight congressional districts and throw the house to the democrats. So before being cocky about Crist being governor, remember you may get a democratic congress out of it.

Who wins a low turnout election? With the top two races currently looking like blowouts, do you think people are going to be excited about going to the polls?

C'mon termie comment will ya.. Crist is a numb nut... and if we all have to live with his victory, it will be George, ballard, mac, and what's his name, le, something.... sorry i forgot, but he will be there front and center oh yea, hefler... the main man... Those above mentioned guys will be running this state,, Let me put then in order,. Mac, "the knife".. George, " the frenchman".. Brian "the Blade" and Hefley... "The Hefner sex goddess"... God Bless us all with those guys at the helm....

[Gene Smith]

OK, I am sure y’all have been waiting for me to comment on this latest poll. Here goes:

Yeah, I am disappointed that the Mason Dixon poll does not show more movement from Jim Davis. With early voting starting on Monday and the first debate on Tuesday, I certainly would have preferred to see Jim Davis solidly into the single digits behind Charlie. But with both the Q poll and the M-D poll showing a 10 or 11 point Crist lead, I’m sad to say that it does indeed appear that Davis is stuck on those numbers.

There really is no way to sugar coat these numbers, so I am not going to try. I do have some questions I’d like to put out for my thoughtful friends on both sides of the aisle:

How much can two debates move the numbers?

Do you expect a higher or lower turnout than in 2002?

If the turnout is lower, who does that hurt the most?

If you were advising Jim Davis, what would you tell him to do at this point?

Really, these are questions. Other than the advising Davis question, I do not have ready answers. Maybe these questions can spark a civil debate here.

Gene, where are you, did you see the stats on this poll, Davis is known by 91% of the voters!!!!!! And he is still 11 points behind, and below 40%!!!!

Come out from the woodwork, spin this 11th straight poll with Crist at 50% or above as a win for Davis. Come out come out wherever you are....

Like i have been saying repeatedly...

Crist 55%
Davis 44%
Linn 1%

Read it and weep liberals.

There you are gene, I was writing while you posted....

Gene,

Fair analysis, for once. I would hang my hat on 98% of the voters knowing Crist well, and 91% of the voters knowing Davis well.

Debates can change some minds, but not much. We may get 800K viewers statewide on the race, and most of those are partisans who are ready to say their guy pummeled the other. Not a lot of independents care that much about politics, especially in off years. The largest swing could be 2-3% absolute tops, and that is if one person stumbles thru the whole thing, kind of like GWB did thru the first debate in 2004. (m-mi-mi-mixed me-messages are not good (for the 14th time saying it))

Turnout does not matter much. Liberals for years said a higher turnout helps them, but it didnt in 2004. They have been saying a lower turnout helps them, but it doesnt either. I expect close to 2002, for this is a pretty well known governors race. COngressional races that people care very little about (except the media) wont soften turnout.

I would tell Davis to attack at will, for that will be all he can do. Im sure he will too, down double digits democrats always get nasty at the end.

[Imadashell]

Liberal...Thomas Jefferson and the Framers of our constitution..Robt Kennedy and Martin Luther King ,Thurgood Marshall who fought segregation in FLORIDA..Liberal someone who fights to change a failed public education system and fights an insurance industry and big business because we cant afford to pay our insurance rates and gas costs..Someone fighting to support their families on 2 paychecks and cant do it..There are 10 million liberals in Florida and we are prowd of it!

10 million liberals in FL? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. There arent even but about 5.1 million democrats, and 10% of those NEVER vote democrat. Liberals only represent about 12-15% of the Florida population, or 2 million people, and not all of them are registered.

Hmmm, Imadashell -- if there are 10 million liberals in Florida, why can't you get any of them elected?

Drink a cup of coffee because you're dreaming.

[zenator]

Gene:

Your lowly zenator remains stuck on the fav/unfav numbers b/c, they drive most important strategic decisions. Davis' fav/unfav is 36/22 with 33 recog/neutral among LIKELY VOTERS. Presumably, these are the numbers that are causing consternation among the down ticket dems, like Alex and Skip, whom we discussed yesterday.

With those fav/unfav numbers, Davis' current options are extremely limited. At this juncture, Davis has been forced to spend way too much time and effort solidifying the AA vote. While the current poll suggests that this effort succeeded, it came at the price of failing to solidify the remainder of the Dem base, including woman, seniors etc.Today, his only choice is to continue to slog away trying to pick up more Dem votes, since it represents the low hanging fruit.

To put this poll as to Davis in perspective, it looks like the poll results that one would have expected to see on September 15, about a week after the hard fought dem primary. The fact that this is a mid-October poll speaks volumes.

Somewhere, right now, in Florida – there’s a gravitationally challenged female warming up her vocal cords! … And a little blue k-9 crying!

[manaboutit]

The low turnout will hurt the dems...proof of the dem apathy was shown in the primary! Almost 4-1!!!!
That means Katherine Harris "waltz's" in to the senator seat. Even if all the dems who DO vote...vote for Nelson...the repub turnout is soooo much bigger...and we already know..many dems not Nelson...they believe it is better to make EVERYONE suffer...not just dems unhappy with Nelson...the repubs will be miserable too! So low turnout...and unhappy dems without a choice...will make a difference....but not for the dems...sorry jim...it's over

[Gene Smith]

Thanks for the thoughtful replies. Having reviewed your answers and taken another look at the M-D poll, here is some of what I think and some more questions.

Re: Debates

I don’t know about the viewer numbers. Can anybody help out with some historical figures?

There is a number in the M-D poll that intrigues me regarding the debates values / dangers to the candidates. It also raises some other questions about the horse race numbers, but more on that later. Here is the number regarding the debates: 59%. A total of 59% of respondents said they recognize the candidates, but don’t have an opinion. Isn’t that one of the definitions of a persuadable voter? That to me seems like a pretty large number for 3 weeks out. So, my thinking is that these debates could have a larger impact than is being suggested.

Re: Turnout

I sandbagged y’all on this one. I did have an opinion on this. I am expecting a somewhat lower turnout percentage than in 2000. Here’s why:

This cycle is a very bad environment for Republicans nationally. I don’t think I really need to list all the reason. Y’all should know them well enough by now. But how does that apply to Florida?

Katherine Harris is on the top of the ticket in every ballot in the state. There is not much enthusiasm for mainstream Rs to vote for her. Mark Foley’s name is still on the ballot in FL-16. That can’t help to have those 2 races top of the ballot in that CD. The environment facing the Rs has fueled speculation that the values voters the Rs have counted on not only to show up at the polls, but significantly to drive their GOTV machine, may be disenchanted enough to stay home or not be so eager to work the 72 hour plan. I also have some anectodatal evidence that Charlie does not warm the hearts of the value voters to the extent that the Bush brothers did.

On the Dem side, there is a LOT of excitement about the Congressional races in FL-05, FL-9, FL-13, FL-16 and FL-22. Also FL-08 is drawing some excitement. Even the Senate race plays in our favor. This is the first time since 2000 that Kooky Katherine Harris is on a statewide ballot. And at the top of the ticket no less. There are a lot of Dems who are looking forward to the chance to vote against her. (This could make the Senate race an even bigger blowout than the polls are suggesting.) The comment from my anonymous R friend about there not being a lot of excitement about Congressional races is very telling. If the Rs are not excited by their Congressional races, and I suspect in FL=-09, 10, 11, 12, 13 and 16, they probably are not, that is just one less bullet in the turnout gun for the Rs.

Man, that’s a lot of words to suggest that whatever the turnout is, there is a reasonable possibility that it wall favor the Dems this year.

Finally, here is what I think Davis is going to do. BTW, also what I would advise:

Keep pounding the time for a change message. Jeb may be personally popular, but his education policy, property tax situation and insurance crisis, not so much. Charlie’s policies are pretty much more of the same, with the exception of the doubling of homestead exemption, which is popular.

You are beginning to see the next thing out of the Davis campaign now. The series of press releases on “What Charlie Doesn’t Know” are highly likely to be heading to a TV screen near you next week or even later this week. (Announce today??) This is playing to the theme of “smart and not”, one of my favorite scenes from the “West Wing”. This is also likely to be coupled with the “duck” theme. Charlie has ducked every opportunity to appear with Davis since the primary. (Anybody see duck suits following Charlie around in their R nightmares?) Charlie almost backed out of the “Meet the Press “ style debate. He finally got the NBC stations to cave on the format. That debate could turn out to be really interesting.

So, 19 days to go. I know a lot of people have suggested that “Somewhere, right now, in Florida – there’s a gravitationally challenged female warming up her vocal cords!” I actually thought that one was pretty funny.

Warming up maybe, but not called out of the bull pen just yet.

[zenator]

Gene:

A follow up. In September, after the 51-36 M-D poll, Croker of M-D offered the following commentary as to what Davis needed to do to get into the race. "He needs a lot of money and he needs to be on television as quickly as possible." Didn't happen.

Now, a month later, after the 50-39 M-D poll, Croker describes Davis as having "some life left in him", but cautions that "in many ways he remains a blank slate to most voters." Croker also suggests that Davis is "going to be outspent." Translation--Davis failed to define himself to the voters when he had the opportunity, now he is going to be defined by Crist, the better funded candidate.

i like the duck theme and rick santorum's opponent has a great "yellow duckie" commercial out about him "ducking" issues too ... i love to see a creative ad in florida -

as all of our such .. and i really hate it when they cut out the candidates head and hace it floating, sticking out different spots - get rid of it!

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash05a.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/governor/fl/florida_governor_race-54.html

I always post the polls showing Crist domination, so to be fair I will post all polls. Here are two. One has Crist up 9 points, one has Crist only up 5 points. While I believe a poll with Crist up 5 points is more than likely an outlier compared with the others, it is showing a trend that the race is tightening slightly.

I would put the race at around 9 point lead for Crist. The last 6 polls have Crist up 19, 13, 11, 10, 9, and 5. I would eliminate the outliers, and Average:

Crist 51%
Davis 41%
Linn 1%
undecided 7%

[zenator]

My recollection is that Rasmussen and Survey USA are relatively less expensive and more prone to error than either Q or M-D b/c they use an automated, telephonic format as opposed to conducting live interviews.

Based upon Dem and Repub sources and other information, your lowly zenator deems reliable, the probable current Crist lead is within the 5 point spread falling between a low of 9 and a high of 14.

Mark, my words, the fav/unfav numbers tell the tale...

Zenator, very good analysis as always. Survey USA and rasmussen are seemingly less reliable as of late. Survey USA had Michael Steele ahead in Maryland.

I would also have put, from my analysis, the race at a Crist lead of 9 to 13 points. That is a slight tightening from the 12 to 16 point lead 3 weeks ago.

You liberal loonies give me gas with your insanity.

Crist wins by 17.