Poll:Crist 51, Davis 30

A new Zogby International poll for the Herald shows a blowout in the governors race. Zogby nailed it in the primary and now they have Crist up 21 points over Davis. That's not only awful news for Davis, but bad news for Democratic candidates like Skip Campbell for AG and Alex Sink for CFO, who need Davis to at least keep it in the ballpark for them to stay competitive. More here.

Comments

Another poll with Crist over 50%, lots of money, a more detailed agenda, a plan for the future, a center-right conservative, nice guy, and he shows up for work.

Davis still trying to solidify is base, little money, no agenda, Howard Dean-John Kerry's failed playbook, liberal, stiff, never shows up for work.

We've seen this movie in the primary.

Bye Jimmy!

During the primary the Davis campaign crowed every time a poll came out how they were beating Smith 2-1. Where's the bravado now?

They keep talking about how they were outspent in the primary and still won, well they were always ahead.

Now they're always behind in money and in polls.

Time to rescue the women and children Democrats of Florida!

Unfortunatly, after this poll and Mason Dixon, it look's like Florida's cabinet stays GOP. At least for more years of "Stay the Course" BS.

[zenator]

The latest Zogby poll , commissioned by the Miami Herald, shows Crist up 51 to 30 for Davis with 16% undecided and an MOE of 3.5%. The poll of 803 likely voters was conducted on 9/26-9/28.

According to the Herald, Crist leads in every part of the state, including South Florida , where he leads by 8. Crist does well across the board among the various demographic groups, including traditional dems, such as Jewish voters. In contrast, it appears that the only important demographic that favors Davis is the AA vote, where he leads by only 47% to 28% with 24% undecided.

There are also several articles today in various newspapers, including the Herald, about the race to raise money. It appears that , in terms of hard dollars, Davis currently has about $500,000 on hand compared to $2,500,000 for Crist. The comparative cash-on-hand figures are not available for soft dollars raised the parties. However, it appears that the state Repubs have out raised the Dems to date by about $12mm. No figures are available on outside dollars stashed in 527s

The Zogby poll was conducted about a week after the Mason-Dixon , the Mclaughlin and the Strategic Vision polls, which essentially showed Crist at around 50% and Davis in the 35-40% range. Those 3 polls were in turn taken a week or two after the polls taken immediately after the primary, which showed a much closer race with Crist in the high 40’s and Davis in the low 40”s.

The thrust of the Herald article is that , while Davis has been off the air, Crist has used his monetary advantage to run statewide TV spots thereby eroding Davis’ support across the board to the extent that only 65% of the Dems now support him. The Herald portrays Davis as being in such a deep hole that it threatens the viability of other state wide races .

The Zogby poll essentially confirms that which your lowly zenator suggested would come to pass based upon my analysis of the Mason-Dixon trio of polls coupled with the predictable effect of Crist’s unopposed negative media campaign. It is now apparent to all that Davis was/is vulnerable to being defined by his opposition because he never really solidified his base during or after the primary as shown by his consistently low favorable ratings among likely Dem voters.

Please note, however, that Crist is not so much gaining ground as Davis’ is losing it. Crist’s support, after the primary, was in the high 40’s. Since then, it has only moved slightly upward by 3-4 points to the low 50’s. In contrast, Davis support has eroded over that same period from the low 40’s to the low 30’s. Most of the former Davis supporters appear to have migrated into the undecided column, which has grown to 16% from roughly 8%.

The increase in the number of undecided voters is not good news for Davis, since most of the votes came off his tab. Conventional wisdom suggests that undecideds break in roughly the same percentage as the decideds at this stage of the election cycle. This means that Crist now enjoys the opportunity over the next several weeks to capture about 50% of the undecided voters and thereby increase his support level to around 60%, which would represent an insurmountable lead.

Termie, this is beginning to look a lot like Gallager with Davis playing the TG role. Davis and his consultants have foolishly played it “safe” and conserved their resources, while allowing CC to break contact with the field. Now, the options of the under-funded Davis are limited to the same options that TG had. First, Davis will soon go up on TV to introduce himself favorably to the voters through positive TV buys in the 2 weeks before the 10/12 debate. Second, Davis will try to score a knockout punch in the first debate presumably by demonstrating that he is a candidate of substance in contrast to an empty suit. Third, Davis will go hard negative in the final two weeks of the campaign in an effort to suppress CC’s voters.

gatordem

By the way, events appear to have proven you to be correct. It sure looks as if Davis should have tossed out the "play it safe" book, about when you suggested.

Zenator: You are ignoring that Zogby's latest poll is pre-Foley. Seems to me that the Davis folks are going to try to connect Foley-Crist dots. Gallagher's underlying campaign was based upon the strategy to undermine Crist's morality. It didn't work then. The only thing that is going to stop Charlie is a late October surprise similiar to the well-timed Foley media ambush. Is this what you mean by going negative? Voters are interested in scandal, sex, taxes, insurance rates and other stuff. I expect to hear more about the former than the latter. (It was sex and scandal that killed Gallagher). And Democrats, take hope in an observation from Satre, "Life begins at the far edge of dispair". Dancing with Zorba

Zenator,

I really like you. I wish I knew who you were. You are always the calm in the storm.

Davis is finished
not because of Davis but because of Rod Smith Republican Lite and Republican Big Sugar,
This has nothing to do with the homo Crist, Flordia will elect it first homo Governor in 06 and out him in 07
Heloooooo Jeff Kottkamp
and the confedrate flag, this is better than having Dick Cheney run the country out in the open

12:07 PM
well-timed Foley media ambush
I did not see any media in the emails and IM's telling under age boys they were horny or asking them to undress
lets stick to the real issues and stop the hating and blame game
facts are facts the end.......

Ouch. Crist just scored another touchdown.

12:51 I know Zenator, he has mellowed over the years and is a nice guy. That is, unless you are Tom Gallagher. He is a lawyer, a marine, a sailor, an avid reader and always has a compulsive hobby du jure. His best friend is a guy named Bob Roundtree from Gainesville. If you meet him on the streets of Tallahassee and want to hit his hot button, read up on Nikos Katzansakis first.

[gatordem]

Zenator again makes the most astute analysis on this blog (or in this newspaper, for that matter). I would just add a few points of my own:

We have not yet begun to fight, but WE BETTER START SOON!!!!!!

The undecideds that moved away from Davis are there for Davis to win back. This case runs counter to the conventional wisdom about undecideds.

The Sun_Sentinel poll still gives me hope. If Davis EVER DOES get on the air and starts hammering Crist on the issues (of which Foley may be a legit one), there appeared to be room for Davis to earn back some of whatever of Crist's support that is soft.

All in all, Davis better get off the dime SOON. He was on Crist's bumper. Now he is in danger of going (at least) a lap down.

For all who are hoping CRIST Will be outed, forget about it, don't you think the first family of slime Tom and Laura
Gallagher would have already have done that, not to mention the main hate monger John Stemberger

Gatordem,

I wouldnt put my money on one poll result. You have to understand even good pollsters are not right on. Thats why it is best to average the polls, and use that number.

Currently the avg of all 8 pollsters latest polls on the governors race have him up by 10 points, about 49.5 to 39.5. That will be very tough to overcome, for the money will be drying up for Davis.

That sun sentinel poll with Crist up 49-43 was over 10 days ago. That is not the latest, although it is still included in the avg of the 8 pollsters.

Tying Crist to Foley is a humungous stretch. They are both republicans, and they know each other, and occasionally are at the same place, especially since they are both from Florida.

Only 3-4 house members in DC even knew Foley had a problem, and NO one in FL was among them. They put their findings (the emails) to the appropriate congressional investigators, and they stupidly just found it to be "overly friendly".

If Davis tries really hard to drag Crist into Foley's realm, Davis will lose by 20 points or more. Virtually no one will buy it, and anyone who buys it will be offset by many others who are sickened by Davis attempt at that.

Correction, the poll avg is:

Crist 48.9%
Davis 38.2%
Linn 2.1%

Undecided 10.8%

RUMOR raging, Pitts and Lee got PAID?, maybe a media investigation can verify. I wanna see an article where they talked with at least the following on this:
1. Alcee Hastings
2. Pitts and Lee
3. Davis Campaign staff
4. Former Smith Campaign staff
5. Chris Smith
6. Darly Jones
7. Corrine Brown

Foley deceived EVERYBODY. Why cast blame when all were being decieved equally by sicko Foley. Hindsight is 20/20. Stop with the partisan nonsense, all have children that they would act to protect. Exploiting this for political gain is making this sick story even sicker, and the fringe conspiracy theorist are really just extremist trying opportunize this for their own "poltical" gain. Note all the fringe types keep ending with "elect Democrats because of this". That is a nonsense thing to say. You elect people because their ideas to bring SOLUTION!. Foley is a sicko and should be thrown in Jail! this can happen in any party.

"U.S. Rep. John Shimkus, R-Ill., chairman of the Page Board, which oversees the congressional work-study program for high schoolers, said he did investigate, but Foley falsely assured him that he was only mentoring the boy."

I do not condone what Mark Foley did, because sexually suggestive cyber chats with teenage boys is perverted and untoward. But I'll betcha any male can recount examples of older gay fraternity brothers coming back to the frat house to associate with the young brothers. It was a fact of life then, as it is now. We all seemed to know who they were and would drink their booze and spurn their advances. I can't remember anyone who was scarred by the experience. What I know about Foley's actions, I know by reading the recorded conversations. As far as I can tell, he was suggestive - but coy and not outright pornographic. So far as we know to date, he did not have porno photos of kids doing it, nor do we know that he actually engaged in any overt act. Sorry, but I am having a difficult time understanding all of the hyperventilation. Either there is more to come, or this grandstanding indignation has gotten out of hand. I have known Mark Foley since he first came to the legislature. There was never any doubt as to his now obvious sexual leanings. Every one who knew Mark, knew he liked the young FSU football players. So why all these surprised people. It must be political silly season.
Devil's Advocate

[Campaign Manager]

I don't think anyone doubts that Crist is ahead - and probably by a significant margin. But it does not seem likely that he is ahead by 21%. The people who argue we should wait for more polls are correct. I suspect we will see some polls shortly that show Davis down by 8-12 points. Still not good news for Davis, but these Zogby numbers beggar credibility.

[zenator]

Campaign Manager:

Your lowly zenator mostly agrees with you . It is hard to get a really accurate read in the polls when one of the candidates is not yet campaigning.

I am reasonably confident about Crist being above 50%, since the polling data is fairly consistent on that score. It is more difficult for me to believe that Davis has fallen to 30% unless that figure is measuring the Davis supporters, who have managed to remain awake.

Dem voter registration numbers and historical voting patterns seem to suggest that almost any Dem should be able to show up and get 40% of the vote.

My own guess is that Davis has probably fallen into the 30's due to his inexpicable failure to "show up for work" for the first 3 weeks of the campaign. Assuming he starts campaigning, running media etc, I suspect that the race will narrow and the polls will reflect a low to mid double digit lead for Crist.

Since this is what you do for a living, would you please provide your insight regarding the election ?

[gatordem]

2:49

Methinks you missed my point. I was encouraged by the issues Q & A of the Sun Sentinel poll, not the horse race. Think about it. The issues haven't changed. What's changed is that Crist is up with those same old tired R attack lines about "liberal tax raisers".

The Foley affair casts the whole R party in a negative light. Foley was in Pensacola when he sent some of those sick messages. That makes him subject to Florida law.

Those of you who say it is a Federal law enforcement matter miss the point. That Homeland Security pervert was brought here to FLORIDA AND TRIED IN FLORIDA courts. Chain Gang Charlie is Florida's chief law enfrocement officer. Hasn't anybody told him what to say YET?

So, yeah, Foley is probably a legit issue. However, as Jim Davis is the honorable man I know him to be, the real question will be whether he uses it or not.

And 4:33 - you are over hee on this thread proving the same point all over again. If "everybody ... knew", then MORE SHOULD HAVE BEEN DONE!!!!

[moderate]

4:33

I don't know what fraternity you were in, but I'm glad I'm not a brother there.

Delta Tau Delta for life!

[Blue Dawg]

This poll cant help Democrats running for the Cabinet or the state senate and the state house.

Nothing like being demoralized a week out. Davis is a nightmare.

I am shocked that no one has mentioned that Chain Gang Charlie Crist, The Self Proclaimed defender of Children from Sexual Predators, and Mr. Sexual Predator himself, Mark Foley, were roomates during their time in the State legislature. Hmmm... Adam, Steve, Joni has anyone even asked Charlie what are his thoughts on this matter or as Attorney General is he going to look into possibly charging this man with a crime?

[Omega83]

What's changed is that Crist is up with those same old tired R attack lines about "liberal tax raisers"

gatordem, if Charlie is up over 20, perhaps calling the opposition on raising taxes is neither tired nor old...

perhaps it is you that has grown frustrated with the truth

9:03

Foley committed these crimes across state lines, it is a FEDERAL issue. Not even Crist's jurisdiction.

[gatordem]

Omega

We still haven't started swinging, so I'm not quite ready to concede.

10:01 - why did the Homeland Security perv get transported from Maryland to Florida to face charges in a Florida court? Foley was in Pensacola for at least one of these incidents.

Why have we NOT heard from Charlie? Where is Chain Gang Charlie???

i'll be laffing my (_x_) off if crist comes out after 7 november. bwahahaha jokes on the repubs then!!!!

12:38, most of the repubs wouldn't care. Everybody knew about Foley and he stayed in office. Better a gay R than a straight D.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/15657256.htm

Even the cabinet races have republicans ahead double digits, with only McCollum leading by single digits. Read them and weep liberals.

These polls are tough for Dems. I'm reading and weeping, and I'll even find time to shed a tear for all the lives adversely affected by conservative pedophile Mark Foley.