Times Poll: Crist 48, Davis 42

Republican Charlie Crist may be trouncing Jim Davis in money and sheer number of TV commercials, but a new St. Petersburg Times poll shows Davis remains solidly in the game as Election Day looms.

The poll found Attorney General Crist leading Democratic U.S. Rep. Davis by six percentage points, 48 percent to 42 percent, with 10 percent of voters still undecided. Independent voters stand to tip the election Nov. 7, with one in five still unsure between the two. More here

Comments

Charlie objects in the mirror are clser than they appear.

Yea right.... The dems wrote the poll, and the reps just made the calls.
Torture the questions enough and you'll get the results you're after.
If ya'll had worked a little harder, you could have flipped em.

i fully expected the sp times poll to show the race closer than the others. Their sampling is consistently giving more democrat votes than republican votes. Just look at the other cabinet races, no one else has the democrats leading by that much.

This poll however, is statistically within the margin of error of the other polls, which average Crist up 9% or so.

Thank you for keeping it close... the Republican were getting too confident and we need to make sure they get out and vote. All you R's out there vote, vote early so you can ride your neighbors who want to vote for Charlie to the polls. Don't let up! If this is close we don't want to be on the loosing side. Call, walk, ride them to the polls. Just a few more days!! Go Charlie!!

OK, boys and girls, last polls in the last 7-8 days...

Mason Dixon, Crist 50-39
Quinnipiac, Crist 46-44
Cromer, Crist 49-38
AIF, Crist 46-32
Strat. Vision, Crist 51-42
Insider, Crist 50-38
Rasmussen, Crist 52-41
SP Times, Crist 48-42

AVERAGE

CRIST UP 9.5%

CRIST 49%
DAVIS 39.5%
LINN/OTHERS 2%
UNDECIDED 9.5%

Still Crist shows a comfortable lead.

why didnt the st pete times run the Rassmussen poll? It showed Crist up 11. This poll was done over 4 nights ending Weds, long time to wait before publishing. The race is much closer to 10 than 6.

They cant legally post the rasmussen poll b/c it is supposedly for members only to see, and they are not supposed to publish it elsewhere. RealClearPolitics does not listen, but many others do.

This poll paves the way for the SPT to endorse Charlie. They want the race to appear closer so it does not appear that they are simply backing a winner.
Gotta sell papers ya know.

This is exactly what the Republican party gets for completely abandoning conservatives this cycle with these squishy messages.

Panhandle and north florida voters will stay home. And Crist, even if he wins, will have NO COATTAILS.

Crist has outspent Davis 8-1, yet holds a slim lead. Thats pathetic.

I told my husband to vote for every other Republican BUT Crist. If we are going to put a liberal in office, I'd rather it be a Democrat.

[Gene Smith]

The tactic of listing however many of the most recent polls to attempt to prove a lead or a trend is absolutely misleading. I have long held that a true measure of poll comparisons is to look at the field dates when comparing polls. Giving equal weight to a poll taken a month ago in a moving average calculation misses any real trend in the relevant movement of the candidates.

The SP Times poll is in fact in line witht the more recent independent polls. it is well within the intersection of margins of error of the Rasumussen and SP Times polls.

Hey I just saw Jim Davis' chair heading down I-4. It was empty.

Why would a man who refuses to stand up when it counts, i.e., Schiavo, property insurance law favoring insurance companies passed on the final day of the recent legislative session, complaining about telephone rate increases only after they become law, and meaningful property tax relief for all Floridians--want to become governor?

What has this career politician Crist ever really accomplished in his Cabinet posts--Education Commission and Attorney General--other than marking time until his next run for higher office?

We are ranked 49th in the nation in high school graduation rates. What has Crist done to help lower our homeowners' insurance rates--if we are lucky enough to be able to find a company who has not already pulled out of Florida. His plan for property tax relief would put an unfair burden on local governments and make a bad situation worse.

It really is about standing up, and making a difference--not just showing up and marking time until your next race.

davis nevered showed up to vote. he is ranked second in terms of missed votes. he says that he was busy running for governor.

WELL, THERE ARE OVER 400 OTHER MEMBERS OF CONGRESS RUNNING FOR OFFICE. HOW CAN THEY SHOW UP FOR WORK AND VOTE WHILE DAVIS CAN'T. TELL ME.

[zenator]

I haven't seen this poll or the cross-tabs so I cannot comment beyond stating my firm opinion that Crist's lead is in the double digits and is trending upward, not downward.

In war and politics, God is on the side of the most cannon, especially during the end game. With about 10 days to go, what will prove decisive is Crist's overwhelming monetary advantage and the Repubs overwhelming GOTV advantage.

Anyone actually seen the latest Davis TV ad on your TV screen?

Crist Denies Trysts
GOP frontrunner: I have never had sex with a man
October 26, 2006

A young rising star in the Republican Party has boasted to witnesses of his sexual relationship with Charlie Crist, the frontrunner in the Florida governor's race who has repeatedly denied that he is gay.

The GOP staffer, 21-year-old Jason Wetherington, told friends at separate social functions in August that he had sex with Crist, according to two credible and independent sources who heard Wetherington make the claim first-hand.

To read the whole article:
http://www.browardpalmbeach.com/Issues/2006-10-26/news/norman.html

[Imadashell]

Problem for Crist..the gay rumours are gaining traction in the Christian community.(The times endorsed Crist and Adam loves him)The issue is S Florida..Many of the homophobe Cubanos will not vote for a Mariposa and many of them are staying home.The condos are getting wild in broward and Palm Beach.The polls here ave VERY BUSY.Flip floping dont help.With 504,000 broward dems and an equal no in the other gold coast counties a heavy turnout is bad for charles.The Davis signs are everywhere here and the base is coming out..Its really gonna be interesting N fla staying home S fl voting .There have been many antisemetic jabs made by the GOP in the Shaw Klein race and 10 million spent on that race.The is gererating great intest outside the district and GETTIN VOTES FOR THE DEMS.Gonna be a hos race..Soft Pink boots for truth.

10:50 You need to step away from the keyboard and get out and smell the air. You analysis is pitiful.

Pretty much sums it all up. Every voter should see this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZ4DyPTEJ6A

[Imadashell]

The point is clear.The election is Crists to lose.The issue re his proposed veto of the BAD insurance bill the GOP approved in the last legislative session will haunt him mon night . The race is narrowing and there is a great national wave in this country about the incompetance of the GOP and Geo Bush.Charlie will NOT avaid that wave.One mistake or Gay disclosure by the mainstream media..Davis will win.Its gonna be a cliff hanger .ps my analysis is not as pitiful as the 78 percent increase i just got .

crist will win; harris will lose big time.

[Gene Smith]

Zenator,

We are not likely to see the crosstabs on the Times poll. I don't recall them ever making those available. However, as I said earlier, the intersections of the MOE's on the latest independent polls are in the (high) single digits. I know you love those fav / unfav numbers, and there is a lot to be said for them. However, the real number to watch is that magic 50% number. As long as Charlie is under 49 in an independent poll, there is still life in the Davis campaign.

For someone else, the new Davis ad hits the air today.

Zenator, there are a million metaphors that can be applied to this situation. The one that I am looking at says that "fortune favors the brave (or the bold)." Also, when somone told Abraham Lincoln not to worry, that "God is on our side", Lincoln replied that he worried that "We are on God's side."

Sticking with the Civil War analogies, the Confederates wouldn't have survived a year without the audaciousness of their commanders, most notably, Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson. It was the beginning of the end when Stonewall was mortally wounded at Chancellorsville. The South did not have the cannon or the money on their side, but they believed in what they were doing and they were bold.

We shall see whose on god's side on November 7th.

[zenator]

Gene:

A point of information.Robert E. Lee's audaciousness had nothing to do with the South surviving the first year of the civil War. He sat on his rear end the first year of the Civil War. He took command of the Army of Northern Virginia in June of 1862, following Johnston's death. Despite Lee's efforts, the South lost precisely b/c of the numbers. It was ground down in a war of attrition by Grant, Sherman et al

[Zhombre]

If we turn this into a Civil War Blog it might prove more interesting than current politics. Certainly the personalties involved are more vivid, resolute and interesting than anybody I can think of currently.

WOW! Jim Davis admits he is is a NO SHOW!!. Breaking!
----------------------
Davis gave his own take on the "empty chair" ad,....."You've all seen the ad, right? The moving chair. He says Davis doesn't sit down in his chair. He's right. I don't sit down in my chair.
-------------------------

WOW! Jim Davis admits he is is a NO SHOW!!. Breaking!
----------------------
Davis gave his own take on the "empty chair" ad,....."You've all seen the ad, right? The moving chair. He says Davis doesn't sit down in his chair. He's right. I don't sit down in my chair.
-------------------------

repeat of 94, The He Coon. Davis wins...GOP awfully unpopular.
Charley Crist? My God did anyone see his performance at the debate? He is so vacuous and innocuous. For you Republicans who do not like to read those are big words which mean stupid )like all of you. Yeah right he did go to Fl Public Schools. Guess that explains why he went to a crappy law.
school and flunked the bar exam and has had the governemtn tit( or should I say nipple given his "ambivelance") for his liveliehoid. DAVIS? tAMPA jESUIT wASHINGTON AND lEE. (UH REPUBLICANS THAT IS UP nORTH WHERE THEY HAVE real FUCKING UNIVERSities. wait listed AT uva laW. GRADUATED FORM U of F and got a job at carlton Fields. There is no comparison. You Republican supporters are all a bunch of stupid ignorant fucking Americanista assholes. Thanks for ruining our country..

Well 4:56 you have a few adjectives that I might not have used, but you put it pretty much right on. You GO??? Very true and precise comparison,like it.... Thanks

[Gene Smith]

Zenator

Robert E. Lee was essentially the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff the first year of the war. Before accepting a commission from the CSA, he was General in Chief of the Virginia military. His efforts in equipping and training the Virginia volunteers enabled them to withstand the larger Union force at First Manassas (Bull Run to you Yankees). His instructions to Stonewall Jackson gave Jackson the freedom to operate that made him famous.

I agree with Zhombre. Let's take up the Civil War eafter the election.

Meanwhile, the true Southerner, Jim Davis, is going to pull a Robert E. Lee and defeat a larger, better equipped Republican force under George McClellan, er, uh, Charlie Crist in the Seven Days battle leading up to November 7th. Like McClellan, Charlie will be wondering how he could have been defeated. Abe Lincoln, uh, er Jeb Bush will promptly fire Charlie and replace him with a series of other incompetetents. Jeb will never get his US Grant, because the wingnuts will never support a General who drank like Grant. (For which he got a very bad rap, by the way. See Bruce Catton).

Hey Gene, they all went to West Point together

Gene,

It seems you will NEVER be convinced. I did not post latest polls from each pollster, but only polls in the last WEEK. Putting those together is an adequate timeshot that Crist is currently up 9.5% or so.

YOu can argue that "other" polls that we have not seen dont say that, but the ones SHOWN are saying that.

The SP times poll MAY be accurate, but I seriously doubt it, except that it is accurate given the margin of error. They are not a professional organization that consistently polls, they are more like.... uhhh, newsweek, poll so we can have a story, lets have something to write about.

Lets once again look at the polls in the last WEEK! By the way, you were hanging on that Rasmussen is usually very accurate, which I agree:

SP Times, Crist 48-42
Rasmussen, Crist 52-41
Insider adv, Crist 50-38
Strat Vision, Crist 51-42
AIF, Crist 46-32
Cromer, Crist 49-38
Quinnipiac, Crist 46-44
Mason Dixon, Crist 50-39

If you look at all but 2 of them, quinnipiac and AIF, they say the EXACT SAME THING. Crist is around 49-51, Davis is around 39-42, and Crist is up 8-11%.

That is a pretty telling sign in a huge number of polls being that similar that it is in fact true.

Im still waiting on the overdue poll from Survey USA to tell the same story. BTW, did you notice as much as you dont trust Strat Vision that their poll is basically identical to Rasmussen.

Bottom line, barring any screwup, Crist is gonna win, and the debate will not be small, but will not be big.

[Zhombre]

Gene

LOL at the strained analogy (Jim Davis is to George McClelland as Alec Baldwin is to John Wilkes Booth) in the last paragraph but I am ready for the post election Civil War discussion society. I'll buy the first round if such society is held at a pub. I can afford to be generous; I expect to have an extra $25 after the election.

[James]

Charlie Crist is more like Barney Frank than Jeb Bush. The only difference is that Barney Frank is honest enough to have come out of the closet, while Crist is still hiding. Don't be fooled by the (R) next to Crist's name on the ballot. Fellow Evangelicals, we much elect a good Christian man, Jim Davis, to be our Governor, not a phoney, liberal Charlatan named Crist. God bless.

[James]

I just saw Crist's negative ad criticizing Davis' "empty chair" for the 179th time. What about Crist's empty chair in the Attorney General's Office up in Tallahassee? Crist has missed more work the past 18 months than Davis, while both have been on the campaign trail.

Please, why would the Republican base vote for Good Time Charlie?
He is
Against Jeb on the FCAT;
Against the Republican Legislature on Insurance;
Against most Republicans on Gay marriage and adoption.

The only R I know is really pulling for him is Jason Whetherington.

The polls are all about trends. All the polls show a trend towards a narrowing gap.

The Democrats in Florida are finally rolling out a GOTV effort that comes close to the GOP's.

The Clintons are raising money for Florida Dems.

Whatever the outcome, it WILL be close.

The debate on Monday night being on NBC stations will give it better ratings. If Crist keeps dodging every question, there will be trouble for the GOP.

Crist Denies Trysts
GOP frontrunner: I have never had sex with a man
October 26, 2006

A young rising star in the Republican Party has boasted to witnesses of his sexual relationship with Charlie Crist, the frontrunner in the Florida governor's race who has repeatedly denied that he is gay.

The GOP staffer, 21-year-old Jason Wetherington, told friends at separate social functions in August that he had sex with Crist, according to two credible and independent sources who heard Wetherington make the claim first-hand.

To read the whole article:
http://www.browardpalmbeach.com/Issues/2006-10-26/news/norman.html

As a republican, the problem I have with Crist is his lack of core beliefs. It seems like he is just a flavor of the month type of guy. It just seems like he will get pushed around all over the place.

9:58AM said:

"a man who refuses to stand up when it counts"

Are you referring to Davis when it came to Pitts and Lee?

No one can ever accuse Davis of being a racist. But he can't escape the fact that he was spineless. He exchanged his vote and turned his back on the black caucus in order to get the "not so racially progressive" members to support his faction for leadership.

When it counted, he didn't stand up, rather, he just crawled away.

Charlie is pro-life, but doesn't have a problem with Roe vs. Wade but would sign a law like Nebraska's, denying a woman her right to an abortion without exception.

Charlie supported fight against the class size amendment but now he doesn't but he wants to be Jeb;s "heir"

Charlie is going to do something about insirance but he would have vetoes the Republican Legislature's intiative that was passed in the last session.

Charlie hadn't thought about gay adoption and has no problem with gay marriage except he signed the Florida4marriage petition.

Imagine what he can do for Florida!

[Gene Smith]

5:47

I’m going to name you Poll Dancer, so I can quit referring to you by only a time. OK, let’s see if this helps you to understand what I have been saying about trends and timing in polls. First, please not that I am going to use the same methodology as Real Clear Politics. That means I am going to exclude non-independent polls, and then use the three latest polls to look at the average. So, here they are:

Poll Result Field Dates
Rasmussen, Crist 52-41-6 10/26
SP Times, Crist 48-42-10 10/22-25
Quinnipiac , Crist 46-44-10 10/18-22

Average Crist 49-42-9

Average Lead Crist +7

What’s the first thing you notice? The St. Pete Times poll is not the latest poll. It is the latest poll to be released, but polling was completed on October 25th, the day after the debate. That makes the Rasmussen poll the most recent poll. Also of interest in the SP Times poll, 3 of their 4 days of polling were completed before the debate.

OK, here’s where I am in a quandary about the most recent Rasmussen poll. This poll is the only independent poll in the field after the debate. But, take a look at the previous Rasmussen numbers:

Rasmussen, Crist 46-41-13 10/26

Look at the difference in the 2 Rasmussen polls from before and after the debate. The post debate Rasmussen has Crist increase by 6, Davis staying the same, and undecideds decrease by 6. Now, if you believe that after the debate, all the undecideds who made up their minds broke for Charlie, I have a real estate deal I’d like to talk to you about. Something doesn’t smell right here. Without cross tabs, it is impossible to do anything but speculate, and I’m not going to do that.

Excluding the non-independent polls, the race is still in the high single digits at 7. Charlie is hovering right below the magic 50% number on average. The results of the Rasmussen poll and the SP Times poll are within the intersections of their respective margins of error. I would say the race is in single digits. It looks like more than 5 but less than 10 points. I guess we’ll know in 10 days.

[James]

Don't be fooled by the (R) next to Crist's name on the ballot. Crist is 50 years old, was married once back in 1979 for 6 months, has no children, and he has never owned his own home. So Charlie Crist has never paid property taxes or home owner's insurance premiums. Talk about family values, Crist has no idea what family values are. Crist is a career trial lawyer, who flunked the Florida Bar Exam twice. Crist's running mate Jeff Kottkamp is also a career trial lawyer. In fact he currently works for "Morgan and Morgan", the largest ambulance chaser law firm in Florida. These are all facts that are verifiable, and I encourage you to research them yourselves before you vote. Crist's campaign has spent $30 million, financed by special interests, to distort Jim Davis' record with negative attack ads, while fictitiously portraying Crist as being a "for the people" Ronald Reagan Republican. Fellow Evangelicals, and all other wonderful people of Florida, we must elect a good Christian man- Jim Davis, to be our Governor; not a phony, liberal Charlatan named Crist. I hope you all will carefully consider everything before you vote in the race for Governor, and not just vote along party lines. Some things are more important than partisan lines, such as the future of our beautiful state. God bless.

[Poll Dancer]

Gene,

Except for ignoring the other polls that show the same thing as rasmussen, I would agree with you mostly.

Rasmussen 3 polls ago had Crist up 16, then 5, and now 11. If you think people are changing their minds that fast back and forth, I have some land for you. To me it looks like the high and low have some margin of error as their poll is automated.

I would personally put the race at 9% Crist lead, so we are not far off from each other. A 9% lead for republicans with the GOTV effort in FLorida, i personally believe its insurmountable. Barring any MAJOR changes or revelations in the race.

Add a side note as well, I read this in the Miami Herald. In 2004, we had 3.89 million registered republicans, 4.26 million registered democrats, and 1.88 million registered independents.

NOW, we have 3.93 M republicans, 4.21 M democrats, and 1.96 M independents. Republicans in 2 years added 40K registrants, democrats lost 50K, and independents gained 80K. That is not a good sign for the democrat party in florida.

[Luis Font]

Jeb Bush and Attorney General Charlie Crist were told of the Mark Foley scandal nearly a YEAR ago and they swept it under the rug to avoid the loss of the 16th Congressional District which placed the children in the page program at great risk. Why didn't Crist begin an investigation on this, after all, isn't that what the attorney general should have done? Seems to me that covering up a crime of that magnitude constitutes criminal behavior by Jeb Bush and Attorney General Charlie Crist. It's also no secret in Tallahassee that Charlie Crist is a closeted hypocritical homosexual who opposes adoption and marriage rights for same sex couples. Shame on you Charlie, do you hate yourself that much? As if that weren't enough,public statements have been reported in the media by an attractive 21 year old man who served as an aide to Congresswoman Catherine Harris. The young man has publcly stated that he and Crist have had sexual relations on numerous occasions. Interestingly, Crist has a life partner, who he has not acknowledged publicly. Crist's life partner also worked as an aide To Congresswoman Catherine Harris. He committed a felony and spent time in prison but has since been released. The last week of the campaign will be interesting in deed for Charlie Crist.
Come out of the closet Charlie, the time has finally come.