Secret straw poll: Clinton; Edwards stongest in FL

Could John Edwards be the real competition for Hillary Clinton? That's what an unofficial and unauthorized straw poll by taken at the Florida Democratic convention last weekend seems to suggest. Marvin and Shelley Quittner received back 703 ballots(at least 10 more are outstanding), which asked people to pick their top choice as well as their top four choices.

For the top choice question, only three candidates got at least 15% of the vote, the threshold for winning delegates: Hillary Clinton, with 296, Barack Obama with 110, and John Edwards with 108. That was followed by Al Gore with 82; Dennis Kucinich with 45; Bill Richardson with 31; Joe Biden with 20; Mike Gravel with 7 and Chris Dodd with 2. 

Then Quittner, a retired lawyer from Plantation, eliminated Gore and assigned the Gore voters secondary choices to one of the candidates showing 15 percent viability. The result? Clinton 323(46%); Edwards 140 (20%); and Obama (17%). Finally, he assigned the top choices of all the also-rans to Clinton, Edwards and Obama: Clinton 359 (51%); Edwards (25%); Obama (20%).

"Edwards is Hillary's real threat, and if Edwards picks up any one of the first two or three races - Iowa, South Carolina or wherever he could pull tight," concluded Quittner, who also was surprised at how geographically diverse Clinton's Fl support was.   For instance: Pinellas - 11 for Clinton, 8 for Obama, 1 for Edwards; Duval - 16 for Clinton, 6 for Obama, 2 for Edwards; Broward -38 for Clinton, 8 for Obama, 8 for Edwards, Lee-15 for Clinton, 4 for Obama, 6 for Edwards.

Scientific? Not a bit. Interesting? Sure, with more than 700 responses from hard core Florida Democrats.

Comments

I thought “secret polls” where those long polished-brass things in the back room at Mons?

[ALW]

It is sad to say but the only really ugly/belligerent outburst in any meeting came from a professed Gore supporter who was just plain nasty to anyone and everyone within shouting distance.

Personally I suspect and hope that it was not a real Gore supporter but rather just a general malcontent/troublemaker. I am sure the former Vice President would not approve of anyone doing anything like that in his name.

Sounds like a Young Republican Florida poll. Scientific - NOPE, Interesting - NOT IN THE LEAST.

The hard core democrats count for nothing. They are just like their Repulican counterparts. Lonely folks in search of a club where the dues are non-existent and they can't kick you out.

[Campaign Manager]

I have seen a surprising amount of support for Edwards among party activists - not just in Florida, but in other states, as well.

However, given Edwards' financial limitations, I question whether he has any pull outside of a small base.

No I was there when Marvin was taking the poll. It was a legit democrat supporter taking it.

Go Edwards!! a straw poll was voted against, but a good thing they did it because no one will talk about Edwards or Kucinich. those supporters were at the war rally!

Hmm could it have been that the Edwards supporters were so busy voting in the Secret Straw Poll that none of them wore Edwards tshirts, held up Edwards signs, or heck, even wore their support on a pin? I think I saw three Edwards pins, and one tshirt with his name. Now the Hillary folks - saw three tshirts and lots of stickers (your entry into parties with free liquor) and of course, the signs.

Now the Obama supporters - they were there in force - wearing their support on their sleaves, chest and even a couple on their back. I loved the Obama Train with chanting - great way to get folks motivated folks. Good job.

Just shows what we already knew: Hillary is in control of the State of Florida and will win here on January 29th.

who cares if edwards supporters were not wearing their support. why must I ask? afraid of being marginalized by their group. the state party? anyway the whole point of my earlier post was this "straw poll measure" was voted DOWN by the DEC and announced by the party, that there would NOT be a straw poll. so, how did such an organized effort take place with the blessings of thurman and kates? they were even able to reroute the gore votes for a more accurate poll. how did they get this all done, when it was a violation. collecting 703 votes, and then another vote to shore it up, was obviously not under the radar. Me smell rats everywhere, and I voted in my DEC to which I am an elected member, and this was a violation, just another example of votes not being counted. the dems do it too. i am outraged, other than it shows an uncurrent for edwards that is being stifled by the media and the dem party.

[Omega83]

One thing I can say about Edwards, is that while I absolutely 100% despise his policies and will never vote for him, nor hope he is ever President of the United States...

at least he is honest about it when he tells you he wants to raise your taxes. I'd rather know where one truly stands on the issues, than get duped like I did by Charlie Crist.

[Go Edwards Go]

Edwards wins.

Want a democrat who wins hands down? Vote Edwards!

[tim]

The real secret? The polls are full of cow dung...

[Erik Libby]

Didn't go to DEM convention in O town last weekend. I do Like John Edwards and liked what he had to say when he came to St Pete in 2006 on 2006 campaign. He sounds like a populist candidate and speaks to the issues that working people can identifiy with.
Its good that the primary season still determines the Democratic nominee for the party, and not just by amount of cash collected "H. Clinton" or youthful Obama. Last time around I think John Edwards would have beaten GW Bush and not been so stiff like J. Kerry. Go Edwards Go! I'll vote for ya'.