St. Pete Times Poll: Bye-bye Rudy?

It’s Mitt Romney vs. John McCain in the final stretch of Florida’s crucial Republican primary.

A new St. Petersburg Times poll shows the former Massachusetts governor and Arizona senator neck and neck among Florida Republicans, while Rudy Giuliani’s Florida-or-bust strategy has been a bust.

Among Florida voters likely to vote in Tuesday’s primary, 25 percent are backing McCain and 23 percent Romney, a statistical tie, while Giuliani and Mike Huckabee were tied for third place with 15 percent each.

In Florida’s odd candidate-free, campaign-free Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton is trouncing Barack Obama by 19 percentage points in a race with stark racial divisions. The poll found 42 percent backing Clinton, 23 percent supporting Obama and 12 percent former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

But it’s the volatile GOP race the nation is mainly watching, as Florida Republicans stand to have a huge influence over which candidates have a shot at competing as nearly two dozen states vote on Feb. 5. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani staked his candidacy on Florida, and even with 27 percent of Florida Republicans saying they might change their minds, it looks like a bad gamble.

"Giuliani's decision to pull out of the early states is going to go down in history if he finishes out of the money in Florida as one of the worst political decisions,'' said pollster Tom Eldon.

The survey was conducted Jan. 20-22 for the St. Petersburg Times, Bay News 9 and the Miami Herald. It was conducted by telephone from a list of registered and frequent voters in Florida who described themselves as likely to vote Jan. 29.

The full sample of 800 interviews has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent, while the margin of error for the Democrats is plus or minus 5.4 percent and for the Republicans it's 5.1 percent.

The poll included actor and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who dropped out of the race Tuesday afternoon. But Thompson’s departure appears unlikely to change much as only 4 percent of those surveyed backed him, just ahead of Ron Paul with 3 percent.

The same pollsters in November found Giuliani leading the field by 17 percentage points, but since then his support in South Florida has dropped dramatically.

Where he dominated the region with 50 percent support in November and 70 percent support among Hispanic voters, the latest poll shows him trailing McCain by 10 percentage points in south Florida. His support among Hispanic was cut almost in half, with him and McCain effectively tied 36 percent to 33 percent.

---Adam C. Smith

See the complete results

Comments

the romney flip-flops won't sell in florida

Romney: Will say anything for a vote. Cannot be trusted. Record in Mass. is certainly not what he claims it is.

McCain: war hero, pork barrel spending fighter, right on Iraq before anyone else was, Bin Ladens worst nightmare, you know exactly where he stands on the issues, solid pro-life voting record, endorsed by the likes of Phil Gramm, Jack Kemp, Sens. Lott, Coburn, Warner, and former SOS Kissinger. He has broad support from real conservatives, but maybe not so much support from those who want to continue the status quo in Washington, DC.

Vote McCain for a better future for our children!

[mitt is pro-choice]

i just saw this for the first time:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFMdK0TWtks&feature=related

Romney is a liberal at heart.

Hasn't anyone learned the lesson yet that polls aren't reliable? Every day a new poll comes out with a different 1-4 order. Personally, I'll wait till Tuesday night to say that Rudy "has no chance to win."

Mac is clearly back!

If the economy is the top issue then Mitten is really in trouble. Economic growth in Massachusetts under Romney trailed the nation, job growth was third-worst in the country, taxes went up $700 million per year and 200,000 people left the state.

I'll wait until after the FAU debate

[survey sez]

Mitt = flip-flop
Rudy = flop!

Can't wait for Mitt to start the nasty attack ads...

[Read Romney's Record]

From Wikipedia:

"Romney supported raising various fees by more than $300 million, including raising fees for driver's licenses, marriage licenses, and gun licenses. Romney increased the state gasoline tax by 2 cents per gallon, generating about $60 million per year in additional tax revenue. Romney also closed tax loopholes that brought in another $181 million from businesses over the next two years."

[Andrew]

McCain will now do great on Feb 5th even if he loses in FL.

Ahh last time I checked..McCain worked with Ted Kennedy on a bill providing amnesty for the illegals!! McCain is the liberal. McCain-Feingold bill??=He is a sellout to the Republican party. Secure the borders!!

at some point, romney's 10 kids are going to tap him on the shoulder and ask him to stop wasting the fortune his 8 great-grandmothers gave him

[allen ridge]

Washington DC is broken and McCain has been there for 25 years.

America is the largest enterprise in the world and only Mitt Romney is qualified to run that enterprise.

McCain represents the status quo.

It's time for CHANGE

It's time for Mitt Romney !!!!!

So you don't agree with McCain on illegals (it wasn't amnesty as his bill had fines and "end of the line" provisions"). But I agree, it wasn't perfect. And McCain was wrong on campaign finance reform. But those are just 2 issues from a life-long career. I personally like McCain, and think he is right on most (not all issues). His
"straight talk" is exactly what America needs, not more of the status quo from the beltway insiders and George Bush's buddies. Republicans under Bush and Tom Delay lost their way. We looked like drunken sailors on a spending spree. And what was McCain doing? Fighting pork. Thank you McCain! We need someone who will give us what we need, not just what we want!

Vote McCain for a better future for our children!

Mitt Romney is only qualified to be the manager of the WAFFLE HOUSE!

Romney was filmed participating in a Pro-Choice Planned Parenthood fundraiser in 1994.

[CWD]

This is going to get ugly enough without us. McCain has a strong record on abortion, foriegn policy, and decreased federal spending. Rudy is the strongest candidate on crime. If Romney didn't have a strong personal business record, he wouldn't have been so successful. Lets keep this in context while we attack each other.

[Mitt Wit]

I like Allan Ridge working straight from some Romney talking points.

Romney has been a strong supporter of gun control legislation and enforcement, backing the Brady Bill, a five-day waiting period on gun sales.

wow - almost all of the posts are anti-mitt - I guess mccain invested heavily in salaries for out of state bloggers.

CWD - Stong business record? He ran a company. It was profitable - as a company should be. Lets be realistic though, its not like he is Lloyd Blankfein from Goldman or something.

517 - you should now better than that... only Mitt has the personal wealth to afford something like that. Just because he feels he can buy the election doesn't mean other candidates have those luxuries

517 - you should know better than that... only Mitt has the personal wealth to afford something like that. Just because he feels he can buy the election doesn't mean other candidates have those luxuries

[Holly]

I love the new "buzz" word; change. If folks haven't figured it out by now...our government is a "machine!" If poor Obama gets in there to fight for change; he'll only get thrown into the machine, spun around, chewed up, and spit out. Wake up, people...my vote is for Senator McCain!

[Mike]

If the election is about the economy, Mitt will be the absolute worst pick for the Republicans. Mitt's private sector experience is buying companies, firing people, and selling the shell. This is how Bain Capital made its fortune. Do a quick search and see what happen to the companies after BC bot them? Massive layoffs, send workers out to the streets. A GREAT MESSAGE TO SEND IF WE HAVE A RECESSION IN 2008. Mitt the undertaker!

The RCP poll of the same time period has Rudy in second, three points behind McCain... and has Romney fully tanking

[Jay]

John McCain is earning quite the flip-flop title himself.

1. Tax Cuts - I oppose tax cuts....err, i support tax cuts.
2. Amnesty - that is the only way we can deal with 12 million people...err, the American People have spoken, and I heard them loud and clear "no amnesty!"
3. Unemployment - These jobs aren't coming back...err, we can retrain you and get you a different job.

All this not in the last 2 years - but in the last 2 months! talk about convenience.

[mike]

McCain is the Republicans only chance of getting the White House in 2008. He's done really well recently especially in primaries that allowed independents to vote. Mitt Romney is still trying to figure out who let the dogs out.

Yes. the FAU forum is going to get crazy now that Romney is down and Rudy is out.

the best debate so far has been the one between old Mitt and brand new Romney.

[Ben]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5ENwej0fpc
McCain doesn't even know who the pres of Russia is.

Great for US foreign policy. I doubt he will ever get anywhere with Putin, and he is the worst candidate for terrorism with his immigration ideas.

Go Mitt!!!

[Jay]

Romney is the man in '08. He has a spine and a moral standard he adheres to. He hasn't married for money or left a crippled wife for a young rich girl (McCain). Sorry - but in my views, character counts, and it amazes me to see Mitt's character under attack so frequently when there is such ripe fruit hanging on the other candidates trees. Just goes to show the media really, really doesn't like Mitt. Now, that said, why would they love McCain? Becuase he is the most liberal of the GOP candidates.

Strategic Vision Polling Data

McCain 25
Romney 20
Giuliani 22
Huckabee 18
Paul 5
Thompson 6

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_republican_primary-260.html

[Metro]

John McCain is a liberal on domestic policy.

Rush Limbaugh is right: John McCain as the Republican standard bearer would destroy the Republican Party as the home of conservatives.

McCain has spend his Senate career co-sponsoring the entire liberal agenda.

John McCain is a liberal on domestic policy. He's running in the wrong primary. No conservative that has researched his record should support him:

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YjUzOGY0ODA1YzBmNjFhOWE5NWU0OTY5NTZiOGNhOGQ=

[Jay]

McCain/Leiberman
McCain/Feingold
McCain/Kennedy

All crappy, liberal, and unworthy legislation. How does this translate into GOP Nominee? Independent voters. The GOP is allowing liberals to pick their nominee - WAKE UP!

[Dan]

McCain is a pro-amnesty, anti-tax cut poltician. He's co-sponsored liberal legislation with liberals Ted Kennedy, Russ Feingold and Lieberman. He's no conservative at all. His "maverick" status just means he's been a traitor on true, Republican issues.

Romney is a guy who has turned around insitutions his entire life.

Go Mitt Romney in '08!

Real Clear Politics shows Romney in a consistent freefall. The Michigan bump has ended.

[Ben]

You can tell a lot about Mitt Romney by the friends he keeps...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9eRKT2ZhB8

Go McCain!

If you want Joe Lieberman as Vice President, elect McCain. The crazy old man will do it. Just wait

[Dan]

McCain is a pro-amnesty, anti-tax cut poltician. He's co-sponsored liberal legislation with liberals Ted Kennedy, Russ Feingold and Lieberman. He's no conservative at all. His "maverick" status just means he's been a traitor on true, Republican issues.

Romney is a guy who has turned around insitutions his entire life.

Go Mitt Romney in '08!

[Illinois Republican]

Have a look at Tom Eldon( Pollster's bio).

Thomas Eldon, MA, University of Kent
Thomas Eldon joined Schroth & Associates in 1996 after an extensive early career in electoral politics working in legislative, statewide and grassroots lobbying campaigns in Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, and Florida. View more about Thomas »

Thomas Eldon took responsibility as managing officer during the 2004 election cycle; and in 2006 was lead pollster for the Florida House Democratic Caucus. In 2006, the caucus reversed a 14-year period of having failed to flip one single seat with a record setting seven pick-ups without a single Democratic loss.

McCain's supporters use Wikapedia as the source of their information. Maybe a little more research would have led to Mitt's business background, his turn around of the Olympics, and his success as a governor. Mitt Romney has changed enterprises and governments for the good throughout his life. I can't wait until he gets his hands on Washington. Go Mitt!

[jim]

mccains values are very strong 50% of his values are democratic values and the other half, he has no values..heres a guy that says economics is his weakest point and a guy, just because he backed the surge, this twit is taking credit for it..giuliani upported also..mccain has absolutely no criteria to be the (republican) candidate. he has never run a business, has never done payroll, has never had any city or government control..he sat on his rear-end for 25 years in the senate, just like the rest of them

[williard like taxes]

The combined state and local tax burden in Massachusetts increased during Romney's governorship. According to the Tax Foundation, that per capita burden was 9.8% in 2002, and 10.5% in 2006.

[rONALD sABO]

Supporters of Mitt the Pander Bear should ask themselves why he is a one term Gov. of Mass; likely 'cause he ran as a Mass. lib, then didn't govern that way. Those voters remember that.

Now he's gone to Mich. and promised the not real conservative $20 billion taxpayer bailout of auto workers. Next he pivots to the seniors haven of Fla. and promises to eliminate social security and medicare taxes for folks over 65. See any pattern here?

Romney is going down faster than a speeding bullet.

He has no proven experience in government cutting taxes. Neither does McCain, neither does Huckabee.

Rudy ran the 17th largest government in the world - NYC. It dwards Massachusetts and Arkansas. McCain has never, ever run anything.

[Ben]

You can tell a lot about Mitt Romney by the friends he keeps...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9eRKT2ZhB8

Go McCain!

[everyday]

There is a reason why McCain tanked to single digits this past year. He was the author of the amnesty bill! Has he changed? No.

If he can't get that one right it has no credibility on foriegn affairs, national security or straight talk. His straight talk was forcing amnesty odwn our throats after creating the amnesty bill in closed sessions.

I'll take Romney over Mc Cain or Rudy in a NY minute!

Brian G. Time to get off the computer and actually get out and campaign for Mitt

Romney's chance to change government was in Massachusetts. What did he do? Nothing. All he brought was HillaryCare to the state.