Even counting FL, Obama leads

Interesting tally today on First Read, noting that even counting the votes of Florida and Michigan, Barack Obama is leading Clinton in popular votes. And even with Clinton's (hypothetical) net Florida advantage of 38 pledged delegates, Obama would still be ahead of Clinton in delegates. Here's the overall vote:

                    Total Vote        %
Obama          9,373,334       50%
Clinton          8,674,779       46%
Others           726,095          4%

With Florida
                    Total Vote         %
Obama          9,942,375        49%
Clinton          9,531,987        46%
Others           984,236          4%

With Florida and Michigan
                     Total Vote         %
Obama          9,942,375         47%
Clinton          9,860,138         47%
Others          1,249,922          6%

Comments

what is hill gonna do? she's been working for the presidency for 35 years (her numbers not mine) and obama has been working for this only since kindergarten - i mention the kindergarten incident because that is just the tip of the iceberg of how far hillary will go to achieve her personal ambitions.

i'm not saying anything other than this - many of the clinton's opponents have been taken out of the political scene (to say the least) - so again, what will hill do?

is 50-cent correct on what happens but just wrong about when it happens?

[A-Democrat]

Last I checked there 17 states left, including TX, OH and PA!!! This is far from over!!!

The man has no specifics. Some say Clinton is using the gender card. It appears to be more like Obama is using the race card.

It should be about the specifics, not just those catchy empty phrases.

[Josh]

In Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (and even Rhode Island, Indiana, and North Carolina), Hillary will win plenty of votes to surpass Obama in the popular vote.

Moreover, when you include the pledged delegates from Michigan and Florida, Hillary Clinton would be winning the pledged degate count.... once she wins these before mentioned States and Obama will finish 2nd to her in pledged delegates.

This race is far from over and it would be wise by the Obama folks to not focus on McCain too much until he knows for sure he has the nomination.

[Flagophile]

Wrong. Although Obama certainly needs to begin elaborating on his policy positions, "how" a candidate plans to do something is just as, if not more, important as "what" they plan to do.

Obama can bring Democrats, Independents, and Republicans together to move things in D.C.

Hillary, although she has a keen understanding of the issues and some good ideas, is not only more likely to lose the general election but sure to encounter a bitter fight each and every step of the way if she is elected.

Although she may have good ideas, she's far less likely to have either the opportunity or the ability to accomplish them.

Obama will be the best president in modern history.

11:52 I just disagre with you on just about everything you say about Obama. Hillary has the best chance. If Obama wins the noimination for the Dems, the Republicans win the presidency. The D's, independents and most Republicans will vote for McCain not Obama as he is to the left of Hillary and he has nothing but catchy phrases.

Obama is more of the same. Just look at the special interest money going to him. That is not happenning because he is going to change things. The special interests dont shell out money like that for nothing. He is the same old same old special interests candidate. Follow the money and that should send a chill down your spine.

[Flagophile]

First, every poll conducted thus far shows Obama beats McCain by a couple of points while Hillary is either with McCain or outright behind. Granted it's early but it shows that as it stands Hillary will have a tougher time.

Second, McCain already has trouble with the far right wing of his party. Obama isn't as objectionable to that group and they would be more likely to just stay home. That same group will come out in droves to vote against Hillary.

Lastly, the McCain campaigns saving grace is the fact that the violence in Iraq has been down over the past few months. However, we will be back to pre-surge levels by March or April and Sadr's cease-fire will end. Violence will begin to increase again. Independents will turn from McCain and Obama is much better positioned than Hillary to take those votes.

Plus, she's cried twice already. Do you really want to see Hillary crying every other week for the next 8 years?

The National polls you refer to are so close and so up inn the air that it cannot be relied upon. As far as Obama moving ahead of Clinton, well, the black community is clearly voting on the basis of color. If Obama is the nominee, in the general he may not be able to rely soley on the black community. It may not add up to a win for him.

McCain pulls in the R's, with mayby the exception of the extremeist religious right, which is the majority. They wont vote for Obama. The independents will go mostly to McCain as they have always voted for the non extremeist Republican and Obama being so far to the left of even Hillary, he will not be able to beat McCain. If Obama wins the nomination, the D's lose the Presidency. Id Hillary wins the nomination, and she may win the super delegates, then McCain may have a hard time. Trying to spin that towards Obama is just fooling yourselves.

Obama has all push button phrases and no ideas, no specifics.

Correction to 1:58 I meant minority, NOT majority. The religious extreme right is the minority not the majority.

[Flagophile]

The last three posts have no substance. The fact that the religious right only comprise a minority of the Republican Party is inapposite. Without them, Republicans can't win. Remember, Dole in 1996? A Hillary candidacy will bring them out in droves when they would otherwise stay home.

Again, do you really want Hillary crying all the time? Fighting with Republicans?

[Flagophile]

1:54,

I hedged on the comment about the polls. I agree with you but Obama still performs better.

Second, please review yesterday's election results. Obama not only got 90% of the Black vote but also a majority of the votes from women and he actually split the white vote.

Stop trying to paint Obama as a Black candidate who only wins among African-Americans. It is simply not supported by the evidence.

The truly sad thing is that Obama is fighting to represent the very same Democratic establishment that will screw him in the end.

The Clinton’s will pimp their world for the Super Delegates, put the screws to Obama, put McAmnesty in the White House as a result… and turn millions of Democrats into Independents in one fell swoop.

Watch in happen. It is what the Republicons have been waiting for all along; It has been at the very core of their strategy.

2:25 the evidence shows that despite what Clinton has done for the black community, they still voted for color. SC and Ga are great examples of that.

Obama wants change. Wow what a stupendous idea. No one could have ever thought that the American people want change. Brilliant. Anyone who gets elected will bring change. How will he get this change? How will he deal with the special interests buying their candidates? Oh I forgot he is one of those candidates.

2:25 if he wins the nomination, watch where the white votes go. Not to Obama. R's will surely win. Not so easy with Hilary because she will take more of the womens vote and she is further to the right then Obamab. She at least has some deatils to her plans. I have not heard any details from Obama. The Republican stratedgy is for obama to win the nomination.

[Flagophile]

3:10,

That is fine. However, Obama is splitting the White vote with Hillary.

3:12,

Obama has the broadest donor pool of all the candidates. Of the three, Obama is the least beholden to special interest groups.

Save it slick... The Republican stratedgy is for Hillary to win the nomination... and everyone knows it.

Love,

Republican Strategist

[Gene Smith]

One of the untruths I get tired of people saying is that Obama has no specifics. Just go here and see for yourself:

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/

Obama gets just as specific about issues as anybody else running. He just doesn't try to bore you to death drilling into all those details in his stump speech.

Let's put that one to rest.

At the very least, he doesn’t have to use a teleprompter to tell him his opinion… like McAmnesty. And his spouse isn’t bullying the kids in the playground for their Super Delegate lunch money… like Hillary’s.

Superdelegates will not decide this thing. They will go the way the pledged delegates go. No one wants to be responsible for tearing the party apart if Hillary was trailing in pledged delegates, but superdelegates gave her the win. Jesse and Al would be protesting outside the convention saying that whitey stole the election.

3:26 Good try. What I read still lacked what a presidential candidate should have. It showed me how far to the left the guy really is. I guess in the race between the Democrtas, Hillary is the conservative one. BTW, if he has been reaching out to me, I have not gotten his message yet.

3:57 just my point. It is time we do not allow the race card scare tactic to determine what happens. I dont hear al screaming that the Obama vote seems to be based on color. I am not going for that tactic anymore. Al would always use the race card as an issue. It is wrong. It is just as wrong as descrimination over color, or sex.

4:05, the only point is that he has detailed ideas and now you know where to go to read them...you can of course disagree with them, but at least you'll be arguing the substance instead of the talking point that he has "no" ideas.

Now you can brush off the "liberal" talking point.

Feel better?

4:08, you mean the majority of white people who voted for Obama in Virginia did so because his mother was white?

4:11 You sound so angry. There is no real details. He lacks what it takes to lead this country. Maybe in several years. If it is the mission for a candidate to get his message out to possible supporters, that means the voter, Obama has failed to get that msg to me. Hearing the words "change" is not enough for me. He has to get that msg out.

I love playing the race card, and I have a real nice one too. It’s the number 24 car on the front and a picture of Jeff Gordon with stats on the back!

[Gene Smith]

4:26

You can run along back to the Republican threads now. We'll see you again after the nomination is settled.

[Zhombre]

How's the "blog Florida blue" campaign going, gatordem. Betcha Florida stays red this election.

Give me some specifics Obama.

[Florida Democrat]

Why should Ohio and Texas get to vote for President if Florida's vote doesn't count? 1.7 million Democratic voters cannot be ignored!

This isn't about Clinton, Obama or Edwards (who also get FL delegates), this is about Democracy. My vote should count!

Florida must count or democracy is not alive and well.

DON'T FORGET THE SUPER DELEGATES.

THEY ARE PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 2/3 FAVORING HILLARY & WILL LIKELY DECIDE THE NOMINATION.

The truly sad thing is that Obama is fighting to represent the very same Democratic establishment that will screw him in the end.

The Clinton’s will pimp their world for the Super Delegates, put the screws to Obama, put McAmnesty in the White House as a result… and turn millions of Democrats into Independents in one fell swoop.

Watch in happen. It is what the Republicons have been waiting for all along; It has been at the very core of their strategy.

8:44 you sure cut and paste alot. We already read your comment and think you are unaware of the real happennings. It is a shame that Obama had to use race as an issue. It is a shame that most in the black community have turned their back on the Clintons who have been a real friend to their community. Certainly says a lot to me. The young people supporting Obama are really stuck because they do want change. What they have grown up with was george W and the corruption, the attacks onthe environment and the big givaways to large contributing corporations. Sure they want change. Anyone coming to that office will be a change. But most of the other candidates have the experience to know how to get that change and have sound details, not just sound bites.