Poll: McCain in trouble in FL

Start measuring those vice presidential mansion drapes, Charlie Crist. Quinnipiac University's latest swing state poll shows Hillary Clinton beating McCain in Florida 49 - 41 percent, while McCain gets 44 percent to Barack Obama's 43 percent (moe +/- 2.6). She's also handily beating McCain in PA and OH.

From the release: "Facing McCain in November, Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent among women, while he gets 45 percent of men to her 43 percent. They tie 45 - 45 percent among white voters, while she leads 80 - 11 percent among black voters. In an Obama-McCain matchup, men back McCain 46 - 42 percent, while women split, with 44 percent for Obama and 42 percent for McCain. The Republican leads among white voters 50 - 36 percent, while the Democrat leads among black voters 83 - 8 percent. "

"Florida voters give Clinton a 49 - 40 percent favorability rating, with 47 - 36 percent for Obama and 51 - 32 percent for McCain. The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 50 percent of Florida voters say, with 22 percent who list the war in Iraq and 10 percent who list health care. If Clinton is elected, 44 percent say the economy will get better. If Obama is elected, 38 percent say the economy will get better. Only 24 percent say the economy will improve under McCain. 

"The most important quality they want in a candidate is strong leadership, 29 percent of voters say, while 27 percent want someone trustworthy and 23 percent want someone competent. McCain is a strong leader, voters say 73 - 20 percent, compared to 69 - 27 percent for Clinton and 58 - 30 percent for Obama. McCain also leads on the trustworthy measure 68 - 22 percent, with 58 - 28 percent saying Obama is trustworthy, and Clinton split at 46 - 46 percent.

A total of 43 percent of Florida voters say a candidate's age is very important or somewhat important. "In Florida, with its large number of senior citizens, age is an issue. That could hurt Sen. McCain. These same voters are less concerned with gender or race, which would impact Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama. But it may well be that people are more reluctant to concede they're making decisions based on a candidate's race or sex," said Quinnipiac's Peter Brown.

Comments

"McBush In Freefall in FL!!!"

[zenator]

Haven't studied the Q poll or its methodology, but results seem way out of whack...

Clinton beats McCain in Florida??

Big deal...Clinton won't be the Dem nominee, so this is meaningless.

[Tallytowngal]

The Republican Party is very nervous over the fact that Hillary may actually win the nomination and the WH. They want to face Obama in Nov. in the worst way. The polls are showing Obama down by 5-6 pts. against McCain nationally. And Clinton up by 10-12 pts. against McCain nationally. And, she is way ahead in OH, PA, FL, MI, CA, NY, NJ etc. All the states that you must win to win the WH!

Our country can not afford another Republican in the White House.

Super Delegates... please don't let this opportunity pass us by. Vote for Hillary!

I can certainly understand these numbers - if mccain keeps lashing out (unprovoked, no less) at his base (NC GOP) he's gonna be left at the alter

and FL GOPers are extra sensitive to this issue because the republican candidate that ran is not the "republican" governor we got - and poll numbers may be starting to reflect this

BRILLIANT. Clinton such a better chance at winning and the D's will pick Obama. Self destruction all over again.

This is totally understandable. The McCain Campaign hasn't done anything in Florida and the little old ladies who volunteer at the local Republican Headquarters, in say Escambia County are losing patience. You hear it all around Florida, "Why is there no McCain staff, etc"?

For the life of me I can't understand what this campaign is waiting for. Who ever is making the decision in Florida should be taken out behind the woodshed immediately. With the two D's fighting like dogs McCain could be laying claim to a lot of turf in Florida. But instead they are about as organized as Frat House.

Ha ha, the Dims are so dumb. They're going to pick a nominee that can't beat McCain in the fall for no reason other than not to anger their most loyal voting bloc.

Yes, superdelegates, PLEASE pick Clinton!

I want to see large-scale riots at the Dem Convention!

What fun!

10:34, ask the Rs who they'd rather face, and it's Sen. Clinton. And 10:41, people usually get hurt in riots, you OK with promoting that?

10:55: Ya, I'm OK with Democrats hurting each other.

Democrats do well because smart Republicans have an attention span that exceeds ten minutes. We remember that John McCain has not only mocked the core principles of our party, but treated with open contempt any Republican who stood by them.

This fall, we deserve to have our butts kicked.

11:03: You're a traitor. People like you should get their butts kicked.

Quin. methodology is whacked. They either do not screen for registered voters at all, or not for frequent voters, something along those lines. That is why they are so often so offbase.

I gag every time I see that veep-o-meter... looks like they are about to kiss...

Adam -- seriously. Enough with the VP meter. Charlie will not be selected as his runningmate. Common sense should tell you that. I'm sick and tired of the St. Pete Times being such a homer newspaper to Crist. I thought this was a paper of record for the state. Get over yourselves with this man love for Crist.

[V]

This is not in track with any polling I have seen. McCain is doing quite well in swing legislative districts. There is always a public poll that is out of balance, let's wait to see more before making final pronouncements.
No matter who the Democrats nominate, this election will be fought in late October, not while the Democrats celebrate May Day.

May Day is for communists...and Democrats.

[Omega83]

Serious question for Hillary supporters.

How do you explain the 60% dislike of her across the board?

I can explain my reasons for being part of that 60%, but no Clinton supporter I have talked to can seem to rationally justify her lying, her reputation and her husbands.

What, then, is her appeal?

The Florida Legislature is working hard to elect the next DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT.

The Republican Leadership has abandoned the middle class while feeding like pigs to a trough.

The pretend to "fix" property taxes, property insurance, PIP and with each stroke of their pen rates, taxes, and premiums INCREASE.

They give almost a BILLION dollars to their Corporate owners (CSX, St. Joe Paper Company) while abandoning children, the elderly, the sick, and the severely and mentally handicapped.

They pretend to be pro-life while they abandon the living. While families are desperate for health care coverage for their children the Legislature cuts funding to programs that assist them (all the while receiving FREE HEALTH INSURANCE and FREE DENTAL INSURANCE - family plans). No, no HMO for our members - they get to choose their doctors and dentists!

Remember in November - and vote accordingly!

"A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll found nearly 60 percent of voters think Clinton is dishonest. Think about that: Only four in 10 voters do not think she lies when she needs to. A majority hold an unfavorable view of her"

Omega83 How so you explain this data:

The new poll shows a large number of Democrats who support Clinton have bad feelings about Obama.

Only 46 percent of Florida Dems who support Clinton say they’d vote for Obama if he’s the party’s nominee, with 36 percent saying they’d vote for McCain.

On the other hand, 71 percent of Democrats who back Obama say they’d vote for Clinton in the general election if she is the party nominee, with 18 percent saying they would vote for McCain.

Pretty telling if you ask me.

Omega83, understand your confusion on the high negatives ofr Clinton yet the many that supporter her in Florida. Here is the simple truthful explanation, Florda is still very much part of the segregated racist south. On the surface it will seem much has changed but the when the choice is between a "white" person or a a "black" person by older southern democrats, most just can't bring themselves to vote for the "n&%$#er" in their minds. That is why Clinton the older voters in places like Florida support her so much even though nationally, she is less competitive and would lose. The good news is the "newer" younger dems and transplant dems from the north and cross-over independents and cross-over republicans support Obama and he will will win Florida when he wins the nomination. Hopefully this clears up any confusion you have.

[Omega83]

I still dont get it though - 60% think she lies - there's plenty of D's in that number. Why so forgiving of her integrity (or lack therefore?)

Omega, she lies for the right reasons...

The polls aren’t worth a sh*t… unless of course 4 out of 5 dentists really do reccomed Crest… and choosy mother actually do choose Jiff!

The Clinton years were the best years of my adult life and I am over 50 yrs old. He fought for the middle class and I am one of those that will never forget what good times we had, because of his presidency. What a great leader he was and how his wife stood by him as the GOP was attacking him on a daily basis, spent 60 million dollar on a which hunt and came up with a BJ! Then what some 20 GOP members had to resign congress after Larry Flint took out a ad in the NY times for any info on any member of congress that was involved in an extramarital affair. Hahaha... Those freaks in the GOP had to resign from congress. Heck, Newt Gingrich had to resign and his sucessor Bob Livingston was outed as having 7 mistresses and had to resign as speaker as well, both while trying to impeach the President.

The Clinton are the strongest and bravest Democrats we have probably ever had in this country. And, honey I trust them with my life and my country!

The Q-poll has been notoriously incorrect along the way through the primaries. Why would this one be any different?

That is why 85% of older Democrats support Hillary! You know, we are the ones that actually vote, unlike the under 30's, that blog daily but don't turn out to vote. Just ask John Kerry, or any news organization the does exit polls.

Leave it to the Democrats. Hillary is the only one who can win the POTUS and they are going to pick Osama Obumus.

Go figure!!!

[Crist will not be VEEP]

11:27: They are about to kiss. McCain owes Cristi alot.

While I don't argue the point that the country was in better shape when Clinton was president, it would do everyone well to remember that Bill happens to be one of the most dishonest people out there as well. However, he managed to make people love him. Unfortunately, his wife doesn't have his charisma but at least she hasn't been associated for the last 20 years with a hatemonger. And for the record, I'm a registered republican who is slowly slipping into the poorest of poor middle class. Might not be much longer.

11:46 am - You are sooooo right. I, along with many many others, am so sick and tired of hearing about Charlie Crist and his being picked as VP. Why anyone would give this any serious credence is beyond me. If the republicans want to squander what they've been given as a result of this most recent democratic debacle, pick Crist. That will abruptly swing the pendulum back in the donkey's direction!

I will not vote for President, a man who does not know who we’re at war with, thinks “the economy” is just a rental car category… and considers for his VP, a man who knows not where his office is, chemically treats his hair and skin, believes trucknuts are a priority, and pimps $240 as a job well done.

McSame/McFraud '08!... NOT!

[Omega83]

12:32

what would those reasons be? why lie about something dumb like Bosnia?

Omega - that was not one of the lies for a good reason

And another big sign the Obama is washed up. He is down by double digits in IN and now this just in:

April 30, 2008 —

A survey of 571 registered likely voters in North Carolina’s May 6 Democratic primary shows Sen. Hillary Clinton having moved from a double digit deficit in an InsiderAdvantage poll taken in mid-April to a two point lead over Sen. Barack Obama in this telephone survey, conducted April 29. The survey was weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8% The results were:

Hillary Clinton: 44%
Barack Obama: 42%
Undecided: 14%

3:00 how do people trust Hillary Clinton? I truly cannot fathom it.

Sen. Clinton is our only hope for regaining the White House. The sooner people realize that the sooner we will be on our way to Victory in Nov.

I trust Hillary more than I would trust Obama. We know Hillary, we don't know Obama. And the more we learn the less likely he is to pull off a win in the general election.

3:58

that's the problem. We KNOW Hillary is a pathological liar and plays dirty politics.

All politicians are "... pathological liar(s) and plays dirty politics."

Including your ol' boy Johnny Napoleon (aka: McSame as Dubya, only more senile)

A Pathological liar? She said some 13 yrs ago that there was a vast Right Wing Conspiracy against her husband was that a lie, the media at the time tried to make it seem so. Now, even Richard Mellon Scafe admitted to being the financier of the attacks. And of paying off the Akansas State Troopers to lie to the Grand Jury. She did emblish her danger in Bosnia, but the country was at war at the time. Hello, please before you go around calling a US Senator a pathological liar. Please, give us some examples.

But I guess Sen. Obama didn't lie when he said... that he never said (on National Television) that Rev. Wright is his Spritual Advisor. Or that he never heard Rev. Wright rant against the US. or the White establishment. Or that Louis Farakan is not a friend of his. HELLO, all politicians try to cover when they are caught in an embarassing situation.

When it comes to Pasco County REC, we will definitely, lose this election, if Bill & Ann Bunting are still in charge. They do not know what they are doing? If we lose its going to fall on the hands of Bill & Ann Bunting.

It's very encouraging to see the DEMs debating long and hard over which of two excellent, well meaning candidates we should run for President. New DEM voters are turning out in record numbers; this is what American politics should be about.

Now on the other side, we have, to be generous, one very mediocre man with whom the vast majority of his party were very unsatisfied. None of the GOP knows which way he's going to flip flop if elected, given that very recently he was an annoying but moderate amnesty-loving Republican, but now, he's (gasp!) willingly taken on the fascist wingnut political baggage of the THE WORST PRESIDENT EVER! I'm sure glad I'm not a Republican - the cognative dissonance involved in holding together the Coalition of the Willfully Ignorant would be driving me crazy right now!

As a conservative Republican I am looking forward to the purge at the RPOF and RNC when we get "Doled" in November.

If having a socialist in the White House is so bad then the American People will hand that b_ _ _ _ a smackdown Conservative Republican Congress to make her a spayed lame duck the last two years of her administration.

Let America get this longing for socialism out of its system or find that it is a better path. Don't be scared of transitions or change, this nation has survived both jimmy carter and W haven't we!

The McCain people dont have any idea what there doing. The RPOF State committee is really P off about how McCain has done nothing in Fla( not even a bumper sticker) and how they were treated by Arlene. No matter how Much RPOF Chairman Greer tries to smooth over it and explain the McCain disorganazation, This whole thing is going to be bad for McCain and Even the RPOF. To bad so much good has been done by Greer and The State Party to have this bunch do so much harm.

If Sen. McCain chooses Gov. Crist as his VP candidate it will cause an open civil war in the Republican Party. Gov. Crist is disliked by conservatives even more than Sen. McCain

Wasn't the Q Poll the one showing that Gallagher was beating Crist?

Actually, most polls show Obama beats McCain nationally while Hill does not.
Go to http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

Once Obama starts to campaign in Florida, the polls will show him leading here too.

Hillary's negatives are too high.

11:01, THE PROBLEM WITH NATIONAL POLLS IS THAT THE POTUS IS ELECTED BY ELECTORAL VOTES: RED STATE BLUE STATES

RealClearPolitics have John McCain way ahead of Obama & Clinton in Florida.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html

McCain choosing Condi Rice as VP could make it a blowout for the Presidency.

McSame/McRice/McBush... thanks, but no thanks boys... we've had enough!

4:57...you are a complete and utter moron. Don't you realize how much damage (permanently) can be done by a socialist like Obama or Clinton? How can you be so flipant with our liberty...when so many have died to protect it?

Obama and Bloomberg that's the winning combination.

4:22 Sorry but you are wrong. hHere is a link to all of the major polls showing head to heads.

Clinton leads McCain in every poll Obama and McCain each lead in an equal amount of polls.

http://realclearpolitics.com/polls/

Clinton / Gen. Clark on the Dem ticket

Now that's a winning ticket!

Gallup has John McCain up 6% on Barack Obama:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106966/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Point-Lead-Over-Obama.aspx

Obama's racist remark & bittergate is coming home to roost.