Crowd count politics in McCain country

John McCain hadn't even shown up yet for the John Rich concert Friday evening in Panama City when the first e-mail came to this reporter:

"Rumor has it that the mccain folks there are clearing sections and pushing the crowd around so it looks more full. What happened to the rpof spin that they were making it free because they found a sponsor?"

The e-mail came from a Democratic operative and here's the reply I dashed off on a BlackBerry: "It's pretty big crowd, not huge but big."

He writes back: "I hear it is like 600 people. In a county with 170,000 residents - also in one of the most republican areas in the state. ... In 2004, George Bush (Appearing with McCain) had 23,000 people show up."

You see where this is going.

Democrats wanted reporters (there was a handful of Florida newspaper reporters and a ton of national press) covering the event to note a pathetic turnout.

Crowd size is a legitimate measure of enthusiasm for a candidate and a free concert featuring a well-known country singer (click here for the live version of Raisin' McCain) and a presidential nominee should be a big draw. So the guy had a point. Still, the 600 estimate was decidedly lowball spin.

A McCain spokesman on scene said he did not have an official tally and the consensus among journalists was it was around 1,000. The figure was reported by the St. Petersburg Times and the Wall Street Journal.

But Republicans were sending messages to reporters, too.

"On background, there seems to be some confusion over how many folks attended the John Rich concert tonight in Panama City. There were 3,000 people in attendance according to the United States Secret Service, which has a pretty good handle on these things."

If 600 is low and 3,000 is high, let's just say it was a "pretty big crowd. Not huge, but big."

Comments

yea, I see where it is going. McAmensty is going to get "Doled" or worse because he is a back stabber and it is going to come back to haunt him millions of conservative voters at a time.

[Bunny]

Re: The last picture; The black jeans tells you this was in Panama City. Classy.

I love it - great post Alex....

I thought the tickets were $10....

Of the dozens of campaign events I've been too over the years, I have never seen the media get the crowd count correct. Not once. Including the St Pete Times.

This is true for Republican as well as Democratic events.

Even when it is easy to count, such as when attendees are sitting in rows & columns of chairs. The crowd count is always lowballed.

That's why I stand in the back of the crowd, behind everyone, and spend the event listening, while counting and making written notes of the groups of people that I am counting.

Too bad the lazy media cannot be bothered to do the same.

Even 1000 is pathetic. 4 years ago, Gerorge Bush and John McCain got 23,000 people there.

Arlene needs to go TODAY! this was the brain child of her and that guy buzz, it was a failer, my wife and I were there, this campaign is really BAD. How could RPOF have let this happen.

Trying to come up with some exact number is impossible, (unless it's really restricted gates/admission, with gatekeepers counting) especially at events where people are moving around a lot, and coming and going throughout. Supporters always say high, and opponents always say low.
It's no-win. Give us a ballpark number, and let it go.

According to some of the European newspapers, the U.S. msm greatly inflated Obama's numbers in Germany. They reported 10's of thousands vs 200K. And yes, I get the difference between the size of O's crowds compared to this turnout.

I don't think crowd size necessarily equals votes. I always vote but I never go to political events.

The other thing- some of the Obama turnout isn't because they're all going to vote for him. Some are there for the historical factor. That way if he does become the first black U.S. president, they can say they saw him in person.

Not knocking either side.. just some observations.

[Str8talk]

Were there any black reporters there?

Who gives a flying flip!!!

[Str8talk]

Here's a news report of a black reporter removed from a McThusela event in the panhandle .

http://floridacapitalnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080802/CAPITOLNEWS/808020312

I dont think this was a RPOF event, so many people did not even hear about McCain comming to the Panhandle or the concert, this has Arlens name all over it, did the local Rec's know? , if something is not done soon, McCain will lose Florida. People who have run campaigns in this State before say this campaign is the worst they have ever seen. People like Rimes ,Heffly and others need to be brought in Now!, We have for once a State Party Chairman( Greer) who really has Power and the full backing of the Governor, so he needs to take charge and get this campaign moving in the right direction. Somebody need's to tell Greer he's got to do it before it's to late.

4:04 PM

I'm with you----YAWN!!!!

John McCain: Bush policies, Bush politics, Bush suckiness.

This statred off as a McCain event, until Arlene figure out that she was in way to deep. Arlene pushed this off onto the RPOF with less than 2 week notice.
Arlene now has the ability to say the event was a RPOF event and through everybody under the bus.
If Arlene would haved asked for help from the start a few week, it would have been a great event.
Her problem is that she lacks the ability to plan for anything.

Barack Obama = Another George Bush!!!

Let's Just Say No One is Buying what McSame is Selling

This event was all McCain staff (Arlene, Buzz)not RPOF, My bet Greer won't do anything that put's RPOF at risk, why because I hear he has too much respect for his own staff and will protect them from being blamed for this complete failer of a campaign!

I wonder who these operatives are, who spend their Friday nights spinning crowd sizes.

RPOF Forced to Give Away Free Tickets to McCain Event
Even Grammy Award nominee can't get people excited about McCain

NEWS FROM THE FLORIDA DEMOCRATIC PARTY

For Immediate Release: July 26, 2006

Tallahassee, FL - Just two days after announcing John McCain and John Rich, of Big and Rich, were to headline a fundraiser in Panama City, FL, the Republican Party of Florida was forced today to give away tickets for free due to lack of enthusiasm in one of the most Republican areas of the state.

"Although we, and most country music fans, would prefer Big & Rich to McCain & Rich, we remain hopeful that a little 'Save a Horse, Ride a Cowboy' will wake up the crowd after the snoozer of an opening act," Eric Jotkoff, Florida Democratic Party spokesman.

"The fact that the RPOF has to give away free tickets proves that even an award winning county star can't get North Florida excited about John McCain," added Jotkoff.

While the RPOF could not get people to buy $10 tickets for Rich and McCain, Big and Rich are charging as much as $99 for upcoming shows.

-###-

Interesting column in today's Wall Street Journal about a study on honesty in polling. Seems that 10%-12% of Democrats may not be telling the truth about who they are going to vote for in these telephone polls. Could well be that the polling numbers for Obama may not be that accurate. I've wondered about this.

Seems like Democrat party membership is falling too:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/partisan_trends

Well, when their candidate is sliping steadily in the polls (see Real Clear Politics) the Ds are desperate for SOMETHING.

6:32 - too bad for the McSame/Crist crowd that Florida is gain Democrats at record #s.

[It's Over]

Interesting headline in the Los Angeles Times:

"With Obama's election sure, Illinois Dems line up for his Senate seat."

Well folks, since the media has already conducted the Election and declared the winner, guess we can skip the Novemeber vote.

The news is becoming as cocky and arrogant as the Messiah.

[Sunshine]

Hello .... with less than 96 hours notice, the Obama campaign can fill the St Pete Times Forum with 15k, and people angry that the tickets were unavailable.

With less than 48 hours notice, the Obama campaign filled a high school gymnasium and again, people are upset they couldn't get in.

Why can't the RPOF or McSame give away tickets ... even with 1/2 a well known country recording band?

McSame = McBush

Obama '08!

John McCain will win big in November because Barack Obama is a dirty Racist.

[Jason Straight]

So are you

[Michael Lasala]

I am an independant voter. I have looked at both sides extensively. Anyone who is keeping up to date with this election can see that Se. McCain is running a dirty campaign. Everytime McCain is on T.V. he bashes obama instead of telling us his views. It is clear we need to change the way this country is one and right now it looks like barack obama stands for that change.

[Michael Lasala]

I am an independant voter. I have looked at both sides extensively. Anyone who is keeping up to date with this election can see that Se. McCain is running a dirty campaign. Everytime McCain is on T.V. he bashes obama instead of telling us his views. It is clear we need to change the way this country is one and right now it looks like barack obama stands for that change.

[Diane Brown]

There was another event going on at the same time about a block from McCain's -- the Downtown Improvement Board's "Friday Fest" that occurs every summer month and draws over a 1,000.

Beyond embarassing performance for McCain's folks. This abysmally-run campaign may singlehandedly be responsible for turning Florida blue in a presidential for the first time in a LONG time. Total disaster....and the worst part is that everyone knows it.

why wouldn't they give me a sign!?! i drove all the way up there and they didn't have any big McCain signs that I could put around my yard.

[impatientFLrepublicanvoter]

I was there. It seemed to me to be between 2500 and 3000 in attendance. Nonetheless, it was worth the price of my ticket. The show didn't evenn last a hour. It took us longer to drive there. Mr. Mccain spoke for less than 5 minutes. My 7 yeasr old girl asked why all he talks about is Iraq. He acknowledged the veterans, why not anybody else. This man is not getting the right advice from the people round him. They had no signs. People were selling stuff. They only way to get a sign is to buy one? That doesnt sit right with a lot of good people who came all the way there. People i talked to were disappointed. I cant say I wasnt to.

First there are no independent voters who read the buzz. Each and every post is from a consultant, member, lobbyist, spinmister. It is real funny to read these things being a spinmister myself and think that some of you think you are making a difference posting on these sites.

Only the original blog post by the reporter on the Buzz is possibly persuading, the rest is a food fight among the paid and unpaid consultants and staff. It's a Pro-Am event, only those participating care about the outcome.
Good post 9:52.

Republicans everywhere should be ashamed of themselves. You've brought this disgrace on yourselves by choosing Old Man McCain and his campaign staff of doom to represent us. You can bad mouth Arlene and Buzz all you want (and trust me, I'm not defending them). But, the truth is, Romney wouldn't have had morons like this running his campaign.

And who knows, he might even have a couple ideas up his sleeve about our gas and economy troubles.

Way to go Republicans. Your bigotry got us McCain, which will get us Obama. Nice work (tongue planted firmly in cheek).

"McThusela"...love it, 4.05 on 8/2!!

LOVE IT!!!!

600 equals 6,000 adult teeth, 3,000 equals 30,000 adult teeth!!

go McThusela!!!!

anybody catch david gergen on 'this week' giving the Mcthusel-lovers a pretty severe biatch-slapping about racial code words?

prooves the great georgie will is too stupid to even understand racial dynamics......as if!!!!

Greer - get this handled fast buddy. It will rip apart a lot of good people who may ditch out at the last minute later if you don't. That will be worse than any fallout now.