Republicans still lead in FL absentee ballots

The presidential ground game in Florida is shifting more to early voting sites, which open Oct. 20. But we should keep our eye on absentee ballots. To date, Democrats have requested 573,388, independents 254,789, and Republicans 792,942. Put another way, of the more than 1.6-million absentee ballots requested, nearly half have gone to Republicans, about 35 percent to Democrats, and nearly 16 percent to independents.

A bad sign for Democrats? Not entirely. At this point in 2006, Democrats say, more than 56 percent of absentee ballots had gone to Republicans, 28 percent to Democrats, and 15 percent to independents. So what two years ago was a 28 percent GOP advantage on absentee ballots has been cut in half this year.

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Obama's 'voter protection' effort in Florida

Barack Obama's Florida campaign brought Michelle Obama to the phone Tuesday to call attention to its voter protection effort, with a toll-free number to help voters (1-877-2FLOBAMA) and a list of all Florida early voting sites on the campaign site, www.voteforchange.com. "We need to reverse the trend of past elections when millions of Americans stayed home on Election Day and they miss their chance at shaping history," Mrs. Obama said.

Obama Florida director Steve Schale and Boston lawyer David Sullivan, head of the voter protection program in Florida, said the push to steer people to the campaign for voting help should not be seen as a lack of confidence in Florida election supervisors. In fact, Sullivan said the Obama campaign has lots of confidence in the recently-restructured Palm Beach County elections operation, headed by a deputy county administrator.

The Republican Party of Florida has praised the Obama campaign for its effort, but urged the Democrat to do more, such as condemning the use of the "no match, no vote" term as "a scare tactic by left-wing advocacy groups." RPOF spokeswoman Erin VanSickle said: "This law is about verifying identity, not prohibiting someone from voting." (The GOP voter-assistance site is www.rpof.org/voter-action-center.php.

Boulware gets a bump in HD9

The liberal media strikes again -- and endorses a Republican running in a Democratic district.

The Tallahassee Democrat has endorsed Peter Boulware in House District 9, saying the former Seminole and Baltimore Raven would be more effective because Republicans control the Legislature. "He will enjoy immediate recognition and celebrity that quite simply opens doors," the paper says.

Perhaps stunned, Democrat Michelle Rehwinkel Vasilinda's campaign fired off an e-mail today asking supporters to send letters to the editor in the hopes of getting them published before Election Day. "Be sure to read the form and click the appropriate boxes. Also, please don't write negative or inflammatory comments about Mr. Boulware. Keep it positive about Michelle!"

What does Gov. Charlie Crist think about the race?

Greer demands that Mahoney 'come clean'

It didn't take long for the Republican Party of Florida to jump on the Tim Mahoney mess down in Palm Beach. This is a Web-only ad. Will the party buck up for TV?

Party Chairman Jim Greer adds, "When will Tim Mahoney and Congressional Democrats sit down and come clean to the media, the people whose tax dollars paid for this sordid affair, and the people of CD 16? When Mahoney said he was going to Washington to restore ethics and family values, apparently that didn’t apply to his own ethics or family values. It’s time voters know the truth."

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Amendment 4 campaign goes 'viral'

Here's a look at the just-launched "viral" promotional campaign for Amendment 4. The proposal allows private landowners to get full or partial property tax breaks on land that is set aside for conservation.

Lacking money for a full-fledged TV effort, A4 backers will run the ad below in select markets but also push it on the Web. They also have a blog and Facebook and Twitter presence.

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McCain's bailout for Hillsborough Co.

Need a job?

McCain campaign officials in Hillsborough County sent out this solicitation Saturday offering $12 an hour to anyone willing to walk door-to-door. "Walk as many shifts per week as you want," the ad says.

Republicans insist there is nothing unusual about using paid canvassers and say it pales in comparison with the volunteer effort. But the GOP has slammed Democrats for doing the same in the past. Democrats are apparently using some paid workers as well.

-- Alex Leary, Times staff writer

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CAT advisers: Only panic if it's the big one

Buzz is sitting through a riveting Catastrophe Fund Advisory Board meeting, where a packed room of insurers, government staffers and lobbyists are listening to a briefing of what the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe fund can and can't do.

Long story short: The state hurricane catastrophe fund has access to more money than it's ever had before. But it's also on the hook for more than it ever has been before. So if there's a major, big-time hurricane between now and the end of the year, the state fund couldn't reimburse insurers right away for claims, because it can't bond large amounts. But if the weather holds up and there's no hurricanes, we do this dance again next year.

Top Obama adviser headed to Tallahassee

The Buzz is that Barack Obama's foreign policy adviser, Susan Rice, is coming to Tallahassee for an Oct. 23 fundraiser.

Rice created a YouTube moment during the primary when, responding to a Hillary Clinton ad that Obama was not ready for the 3 a.m. "red phone" call, she said neither Clinton nor Obama are ready.

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Details for McCain's Miami/Melbourne trip

Want to see John McCain in Miami or Melbourne on Friday? Ticket details are below, as provided by the Republican Party of Florida.

The cap is back

A coalition of small-government advocates today launched an effort to place a constitutional cap on local government growth on the 2010 ballot.

The cap would limit growth to inflation plus population, or about 5 percent to 6 percent per year. Cities and counties could break the limit, but only after getting voter approval.

Called "Your dollar, Your decision," the effort is similar to a cap attempted earlier this year by the Taxation and Budget Reform Commission. But that quickly became bogged down in philosophical differences and logistical problems. "It's difficult to get politicians to restrain politicians," said Adam Guillette, director of Americans for Prosperity Florida.

Mahoney apologizes for 'pain'

U.S. Rep. Tim Mahoney, D-Palm Beach Gardens, issued an apology this morning in the light of an ABC News report that he paid off a mistress. His statement is a nuanced, yet still potentially devastating, disclosure with three weeks before the election.

"I would have come forward earlier but making sure my family is okay is far more important than any political career," Mahoney said. "I have not violated my oath of office, nor have I violated any laws, and I consider this to be a private matter.

"I take full responsibility for my actions and the pain I have caused my wife, Terry, and my daughter Bailey. No marriage is perfect, but our private life is our private life, and I am sorry that these allegations have caused embarrassment and heartache.

Fears about felons voting in Florida

Secretary of State Kurt Browning on Tuesday sought to dispel fears of election problems in a lengthy talk to Gov. Charlie Crist and Cabinet members. "We are not taking anything for granted. Florida is ready," Browning said. He issued firm assurances that everyone who registered to vote by last week's deadline and whose identities can be verified will be able to vote without having to cast provisional ballots.

But two Republicans, Attorney General Bill McCollum and Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Bronson, raised concerns about "voter fraud" by groups such as ACORN, and they seemed unconvinced by Browning's insistence that Florida has "not seen the widespread fraud that Ohio has seen."

"People think it's more widespread," McCollum told Browning, who replied that such perceptions underscore the need for the voter verification or "no match" law that has been vilified by some advocacy groups as too restrictive.

Obama winning Hillsborough?

Doesn't sound likely to us, but that's what a Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll shows - Barack Obama beating John McCain 47-41. They polled belleweather counties, though Hillsborough in fact isn't much of a belleweather; it's a decidedly GOP-leaning county in a belleweather region.

Except in 1996, when Ross Perot took more than 8% of the Hillsborough vote, Democrats haven't won a presidential election in Hillsborough since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Crist: McCain 'a strong closer'

Gov. Charlie Crist today dismissed any notion that he is distancing himself from John McCain's campaign at a time when Barack Obama has surged ahead in many polls, including in Florida. The governor called the third and final debate critical, and he said it is wrong to again discount McCain's chances.

Written off last year as having no chance of being the GOP nominee, "He certainly did come back, and he's a strong closer," Crist said of McCain. "Twenty-one days is a lot of time."

Crist scoffed at an MSNBC report that he's giving the McCain campaign the cold shoulder, noting he will campaign with McCain on Friday in Miami and Melbourne. "I'm trying to do everything I can to help my friend and will continue to do so," the governor said.

But the debate is crucial. "I think he just needs to connect with the American people and speak from his heart and reassure people about the great strength of his leadership," Crist said.

--Steve Bousquet, Times staff writer

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