Times poll: Obama 49, McCain 42

Independent Florida voters are on the verge of killing John McCain’s hopes for the presidency.

A new St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll shows Barack Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 42 percent in this state McCain cannot afford to lose. The biggest factor? Less partisan independent voters moving to Obama by a margin of more than 2 to 1.

"Right now this election is about independents — independents and the economy,’’ said pollster Tom Eldon. "Obama is clearly establishing himself as the candidate of the independents.’’

At a time when economic anxiety trumps all issues in Florida, about half of the voters surveyed — and almost 6 in 10 independents — said Obama has a better plan to improve the economy, while one in three voters say McCain does. Forty-five percent said Obama has shown the most leadership on the economy, and 34 percent said McCain.

“The predominant color in Florida right now is neither blue nor red, it’s green,” said pollster Kellyanne Conway. “The financial concerns, money concerns, dominate voters’ calculus.’’

Conway, who’s company works mostly with Republicans, questioned the effectiveness of McCain’s recent campaign strategy.

"Trying to connect Barack Obama to Bill Ayers, rather than connect McCain to the average voter in the economy has ... been dubious,’’ she said, referring to the 1960s radical Obama knows.

The telephone survey of 800 registered voters was conducted Oct. 20-22, for the Times, Bay News 9 and Miami Herald. The poll was done by Schroth Eldon & Associates, whose clients primarily are Democrats, and the Polling Co., which mainly works with Republicans. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points

It is virtually impossible for McCain to win the presidency without Florida’s 27 electoral votes, and the poll suggests Florida remains within reach for the Arizona senator.

Eldon noted that McCain needs to boost his lagging numbers in traditional Republican strongholds including southwest Florida, one of the most economically devastated areas of the state. Florida’s top battleground of Tampa Bay is predictably close with the poll showing Obama with 48 percent support and McCain with 44 percent, within the margin of error.

McCain leads Florida Hispanic voters 47 percent to 40 percent, while 86 percent of African-Americans back Obama. McCain leads 49 percent to 43 percent among white voters overall, but Obama has an 11-point lead among women and is nearly tied with McCain among men.

Among voters 65 and older, McCain and Obama are in a dead heat, with 11 percent still undecided.

"If there’s any more fluidness left in this race — and God knows there probably is because this is 2008 and nothing predictable — it may rest with these seniors,’’ said Conway.

Hundreds of thousands of voters already have voted in Florida, either by absentee ballot or at early voting sites, and McCain and Obama were tied among people who already had voted. Forty-four percent of those polled said they intended to vote on election day, 15 percent by mail, 37 percent at early voting sites.

So far, of the more than 800,000 people who have voted by absentee ballot, Republicans have an advantage of nearly 130,000. But of the more than 482,000 who voted early between Monday and Wednesday, 55 percent were Democrats and 30 percent Republican, a net advantage of 117,000 for Democrats.

Comments

[Jason]

There hasn't been a cannidate in modern times to come back this close to the election. Especially since early voting has already started.

[ALW]

You got that right Jason - McCain can't win IF WE VOTE!

[Jim]

Funny thing is there was another pole that came out today that showed the race 44 to 43 in the state of Florida. The poles are all over the map. Who can say who will win at this point.

[Daves]

And don't forget, Obama consistently overpolled during the primaries, by about 7 points typically.

[Mike]

Obviously Florida seniors are the targets of both campaigns. Is there an earlier poll that shows a trend in this demo? Is Obama rising?

I agree with this poll. Went to the polls myself to early vote and all I saw and heard the energized Obama supporters. Every age groups and ethnic group seemed to be Obama supporters. The very few McCain voters almost seemed embarrassed to be voting for McCain. They tended to be mostly very quiet and looked resigned to the thought even though they were there McCain will lose. This seemed to indicate that many McCain voters wont even bother to show up at the polls as they are not as energized as those supporting Obama.

[Jason]

Obama overpolled? Show where he overpolled. This isn't super tuesday where tons of people early voted for hillary before the campaign's even started.

[Mike]

Nice propaganda you got there "Daves". How about citing that 7% BS stat from a site other than a neo-con blog. Stop acting like McCain. Stop spreading lies.

[Mark]

How will they explain this when McCain wins by 7%????? These polls are bull. I saw a baynews9 poll earlier this week that had McCain up by 4%.

[Jason]

Obama consistantly underperformed in states like indiana, and NC. fivethirtyeight.com actually was able to take the polls that were everywhere and actuarately predict the outcomes of all the major primarys. That same model is showing an Obama blowout. As long as people get out and vote, this is an easy Obama win. Obama just needs to pull in one swing state, and the RNC has already left Colorado. Not sure what McCain's strategy to 270 is.

[Jason]

Let's face facts, Florida is a swing sate this election, but Florida will not determine who the president is. Obama doesn't need it.

[Mark Casper]

Blast from the past...

The Presidential Campaign
Down the stretch, a dead heat

By ADAM C. SMITH
Published October 24, 2004
St. Petersburg Times

... Forty-six percent of likely voters back Bush, 46 percent Kerry. Seven percent are undecided and 1 percent back Ralph Nader.

... Independent voters had been evenly split between the president and the senator, but now Kerry has a 9-point lead among independents, 46 percent to 37 percent. Exit polls in 2000 showed Bush and Gore virtually tied among independents.

-------------------------------------

Same story, differnent year.

BTW: George Bush > 3,964,522 > 52.10%
John Kerry > 3,583,544 > 47.09%

5 points wrong.

[Steve]

"The poles are all over the map."

I thought they were just to the east of Germany.

So, how about the classy move by BHO supporters beating up a woman McCain worker and carving a B in her face. Nice. BHO supporters are like animals. They are so uncivilized.

[Donald Lance]

No Steve, there are plenty of Poles in Chicago as well. Kind of explains alot, doesn't it?

[Peter Christiansen]

In Alaska Palin is “Share the wealth” socialist This year every Alaska resident will receive an unconditional basic income of
$3,269, That payment works out to $16,345 for a family of five.
Actually, families the size of Palin’s will receive $19,416—no conditions imposed besides residency, no judgments made. Palin says, “What we're doing up there is returning a share of resource development dollars back to the people who own the resources. And our constitution up there mandates that as you develop resources it’s to be for the maximum benefit of the people, not the
corporations, not the government, but the people of Alaska.” If a democratic candidate had handed out an unconditional
grant of $3,269 to every citizen of their state, conservatives would jump on it as socialist class war. McCain invokes Joe the Plumber to label such policies as “socialism.”

Actually in the South he was underpolled you idiots, get the facts before you start spouting lies.

[Donald Lance]

You are wrong Pete. First of all, Alaska has been doing that for years and years. Palin did not start this practice. Secondly, she fought for the people to get more money due to the people for their mineral rights. Afterall, the land belongs to the people and not the govt. So if they ever have offshore drilling in FL, I hope that the govt will follow AK's lead. It's the people of Florida's resources. Not the govt's and not the oil companies. People should be paid for the surrender of their resources so others can profit off them. That's not Socialism. That's called compensation!

[Bill]

I voted early, and I voted for Obama, of course. I am a registered Republican, and almost every Republican I know is voting Obama. The only holdouts I know have racial issues.

How can a Floridian homeowner vote against Obama? He is for expanding FEMA to cover all natural catastrophes. McMean is against it. Anyone having trouble with insurance payments would be a fool to vote McMean.

[Mark]

A jew that votes for Obama is like a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders.

The Obamas are good friends with a co-worker at Univ. of Chicago who was a former propaganda official for the PLO's official press agency (WAFA) and is known for being a raging anti-semite at Columbia University.

THE L.A. TIMES:
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-obamamideast10apr10,0,1780231,full.story

"A special tribute came from Khalidi's friend and frequent dinner companion, the young state Sen. Barack Obama."

NOW SEE HIM LIE ABOUT IT:

"one person who I know and who I’ve had a conversation with"

http://fightthesmears.com/articles/24/KhalidiSmear?source=sem-pm-fts-ay-search-nsw&gclid=CNOq5uusvpYCFQIMswodWkJkyw

WAKE UP. HIS FRIENDS ARE JEW HATING RACISTS

Well, it wasn't a "McMean" who beat up a girl and carved a B on her face. Sounds to me like the terrorists all like BHO.

[Jason]

The times poll has a poor history. Here is a real poster back in 2004. Kerry never really lead florida, or was that close in legit polls.

2004-10-27 Rasmussen
B +5 50%
K 45%
2004-10-29
Mason-Dixon B +4
B 49% K45%

Mark you are a racist. You've proven it over and over. By the way, I'm a Jew for Obama.

[Realist]

This is a registered voter poll which is more accurate than likely voter polls. Early voting in south florida has been unbelievable this year. Huge turnout. Obama can win Florida if we get out to vote. Alot of republicans in line voting Obama, and seemed proud to do it. The election has a different feel to it. People are excited and motivated to vote. I believe Florida can make the difference.

Yeah, but how's he doing in REAL Florida?

6:21 - I highly doubt that story. I see it on the news sure but it just doesn't make sense. Who robs someone, then runs back and carves a "B" into their face? Also notice it is a perfect B. Would he be able to do that if she was fighting back at all? No. This story is BS>

Hussein and his fat ugly wife aren't just Jew haters... they hate whites, christians, conservatives, country folks and anyone who disagrees with them. They are equal opportunity haters. Just look at the lady who got beat up walking to her car for no other reason than she worked at the McCain headquarters. They are evil.

Not one single Jew will vote for Obama, he is in favor of alliances with Iran and Palestine.
IF YOU WERE A JEW YOU MIGHT BE AFRAID OF THE MESSIAH

Donald Lance, ethnic slurs are so 1800s.

6:23 they didn't rob her. They beat her up. All the while spouting their hatred for McCain. Senator McCain spoke to her on the phone this afternoon. He got it first hand. But, of course, NBC and the other loser media try to distort it and make it sound like she was mugged. That is a LIE. They attacked her for working at the McCain office. BHO supporters are nothing but trash.

You guys are so cute when you're nervous. McCain panicked on the economic crisis, panicked on his pick for VP and has run the most up and down campaign ever. He suspended his campaign, lost three debates by wide margins and picked someone woefully unprepared to be vice president (I know, I know, she's hot and sends starbursts that make us sit up straighter). So why would anyone be surprised that Obama is up 7 in Florida? McCain and the Republicans seem surprised that Floridians are looking for just a little bit more than being able to call you opponent the most liberal or socialist. You Republicans -- and this is the upside -- are due for a long, long walk in the wilderness.

Call him celebrity, call him Messiah, call him racist, call Michelle anything you want and in the end, you look so so small and you make this win, and it will be a win, so so sweet.

I know.

Suspend the Campaign!

Great,
when Hussein is president all blacks will get increased welfare, and have more time for robbery and malt liquor drinking.
just great

How can a woman get raped if she is fighting back? I guess under your brilliant logic, everyone who gets raped must just be laying there letting it happen. Otherwise, they would just close their legs, right? Idiot.

I would vote for a crack head ho before I would vote for Hussein and his FUB wife.

[R]

To whomever said that Obama underpolled during the primaries: that's not true.

*Exit* polling often ended up being higher than the actual tallies.

But in the primaries themselves he often greatly underpolled. Remember Indiana, PA, and NC for starters. Clinton was supposed to crush him with solid double digits in IN and PA, but ended up only winning by single digits. In NC, polls showed that Clinton was closing the gap, and she ended up getting blown out of the water by 14 or 17 points. She was supposed to blow him out in TX according to polls, but ended up just squeaking by by 2 points.

Pre-election polling methods are only now in the past few weeks beginning to come to terms with this new 2008 electorate. At this point it's not a matter of whether he'll win, but rather how large a margin he'll win by.

If everyone votes, that is.

the son of a Kenyan spearchucker and a Kansas white crack ho
just great

[cinnamonape]

We continue to see the type of people who support McCain come up with the most insane things on these message boards. Don't they realize that they are actually driving support away from McCain? It's obvious from the polls that this has FAILED.

Yet the less it works the more you express your hate?

Meanwhile Seniors will look at how Obama decided to take two days away from his campaign to go back to see his grandmother who is seriously ill after breaking her hip. They will see the soul of the man, and realize that this is a person they'd be proud of to have as President.

The SPT is only trying to do it's part to help get Obama elected. It is a dead heat and that includes the independants. No matter what the SPT writes it will be a close race.

I see Obama's soul and it is the blackest soul I have ever seen. You can just feel the demons around him. Evil has a name and it is Barrack Hussein Obama.

[Barack "I am not a citizen" HUSSEIN Obama]

Hussein could care less about some old white cracker half grandmother.
He is going to Hawaii to get proof that he is an American citizen
oops, the DNC forget to check on that little thing called being a natural born citizen.

[EJ]

I can't believe the racism from some of the posters. As for what happened or didn't happen in Pittsburgh, it can't be blamed on a campaign. I am a white male in my upper 50s and live in Iowa. I had an Obama sticker on my car and some skinheads (white racists) got out and made threatening gestures because of my Obama sticker. i am not going to blame Senator McCain for their actions which I'm sure he would denounce.

[EJ]

I can't believe the racism from some of the posters. As for what happened or didn't happen in Pittsburgh, it can't be blamed on a campaign. I am a white male in my upper 50s and live in Iowa. I had an Obama sticker on my car and some skinheads (white racists) got out and made threatening gestures because of my Obama sticker. i am not going to blame Senator McCain for their actions which I'm sure he would denounce.

I am so tired of the Obama supporters pulling the race card! Can't you learn any other phrase? Only the very stupid supporters throw that in anyones face. Let's face it. He is black and he does have a strange middle name and his pastor hates white people and all of that is true. And you think the truth makes us racist? The truth is the truth and that is something it seems most voters choose to over look. Fine. But loose the "racist" term just because a fact is noted. Grow up. You must be a newby in the political arena to talk like that.

"So if they ever have offshore drilling in FL, I hope that the govt will follow AK's lead. It's the people of Florida's resources. Not the govt's and not the oil companies. People should be paid for the surrender of their resources so others can profit off them. That's not Socialism. That's called compensation!"

I'd agree with you...But Norway calls the same system "socialism". It's just that in Europe they don't have the fear of the word. But the Republicans have consistently offered leasing of government lands for mineral exploitation at pennies on the acre. In the West they've despoiled the lands for ranchers and farmers, poisoned and depleted aquifers, and broken up access to surface lands. Alaska is, in essence, a "socialist" system because it redistributes wealth from the oil companies who did develop the fields...and passes it on to the people. It comes from the oil companies to the people.

And do you really think those leases would be giving money to the States if they were more than 20 miles offshore?

[Florida voter]

I know the polls are all over the place in florida, but if what is happening among my family and friends is happening across the state, then I feel good about Obama's chances. My republican relatives have moved to Obama because of Palin, the economy and the tone of the Mccain campaign. Even my diehard republican friend is on the fence and is running out of excuses to vote for Mccain. Turnout will be the key.

[Tj]

@ Dave:
I wish people would stop spreading the lie that Obama overpolled in the Primaries. It's not true. He under polled in South Carolina, North Carolina, Indiana, Texas, California, and all of the southern states including Georgia and Alabama.
People who say he underpolled in Penn and Ohio are idiots who can't look at realclearpolitics and see that Hillary's 10 point lead was verified before hand there was no under polling there was only underestimating of the Obama GOTV machine. Obama's GOTV will be the biggest bestest in history this thing is over.

[Guppies]

The scratched "B" must have stood for "BS" but she quit before she scratched in the "S". I have never seen anyone with a "black eye" that did not also have broken blood vessels in their eyes. Yet this fake had no broken blood vessels, just clear while eyes. Good makeup, but she forgot to make her eyes bloodshot. Also, the dummy scratched the "B" in backward, probably because she was too stupid to carve it the right way when looking in the mirror. This is such a BS story and will ultimately be shown as another example of the McShame stunts.

[rick]

The republicans gave away the election on purpose and Palin wasn't a hail- Mary pass, she was a token offer to show the woman in the next election that they have ran a woman on a ticket. Even McCain wasn't a serious offer either with all these wall street and bank problems and his involvement with KEATING {Lincoln saving and loans}in the biggest banking corruption scandal until now. With the economy going into a deep recession I believe they wanted to hold the economy artificially up as long as they could so they could blame it on the demacrats.And whether you believe it or not I’m not a democrat, I’m usually a right leaning independent. Although I am not real high on Obama he’s head over heals better than McCain.Palin with her obstruction of justice in Alaska and McCain in the Keating five they are both full of distain for the law and are corrupt so this is probably why Obama is ahead in the polls!

[SB]

and you believe the St. Pete Times would actually say Nobama is losing Florida? If he is elected get ready for a sociatist government. If your on welfare don't worry, the people that worked hard for their money will be handing it over to you soon enough..