How many new Congressional seats for Florida?

What's your prediction for which regions of Florida get a new congressional district added after the 2010 census? Being parochial, we'd assume north Tampa Bay is in line for another seat, and the drama to watch will be state Sens. Mike Fasano and Victor Crist jockeying to make it their own.

The AP has a piece on the Northeast and Midwest losing congressional seats to the South and West:

Florida has attracted more people from outside its borders than any other state in the nation since the start of the decade. However, from 2007 to 2008, more people left Florida for other states than moved in — a net loss of nearly 9,300 people. The state still gained population from births and foreign immigration, but growth was slower than in previous years.

Nevertheless, Florida is expected to gain at least one seat in Congress, and perhaps two, following the 2010 census, said Kim Brace of Election Data Services, a Virginia-based firm that crunches political numbers.

Comments

[beware of liberal democrats]

TO The New York Times, the entire world is filled with grievances, and Presi dent Bush is almost always the cause. That's the only reasonable explanation for Sunday's lengthy, one-sided Page One screed on the collapse of US home prices.

First, a bit of background: I worked in the Bush White House and wrote speeches - cited in the Times piece - where the president extolled the virtues of homeownership.

Many people agreed. Homeownership under this administration rose to record levels, especially among minorities. The Times thinks this was good politics; actually, it's good policy. Homeownership is better for communities and historically, has been the surest (and sometimes the only) way for moderate-income Americans to build wealth.

We now see that some of those buyers - white and non-white - should not have taken on the financial responsibilities of owning a home. When prices stopped rising, the equity that they'd expected to build disappeared, and their homes' values dipped below the size of their loans. And so we have had spiraling foreclosures, with disastrous impacts on lenders and some investors, who themselves borrowed heavily to maximize their return.

The Times spends dozens of column inches blaming this financial trauma primarily on President Bush. Except for a pro-forma "to be sure" paragraph early in the piece, no one else comes in for criticism - not the borrowers, not the lenders, not the investors in mortgage-backed products, not the highly paid executives of the federally backed finance agencies, not the developers - and, naturally, not the Democrats, who were warned of the impending danger and could've headed it off.

Sen. Chris Dodd and Rep. Barney Frank appear nowhere in the article - even though these two had the power, by virtue of their leadership of key congressional committees since 2006, to bring reforms to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two agencies at the heart of the housing-finance bubble.

Even before Democrats took back Congress, Dodd and Frank managed to beat back Bush administration reforms starting in 2002. Dodd and Frank repeatedly declined to consider the president's proposals, which would have probably cut down the housing froth by forcing Fannie and Freddie to stop buying risky mortgage-based investments and subjecting them to full SEC oversight.

In 2003, Frank said the administration was exaggerating the risk. Last summer, Dodd still called these ideas "ill-advised" while Frank called them "inane." The Times chose to mention none of that.

The Times notes that housing-industry leaders gave political donations to Bush. But Fannie and Freddie's biggest giving went to Democrats, including Dodd, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President-elect Barack Obama. The Times chose not to mention that.

The Times mentions that Bush gave speeches on the merits of homeownership. But Bush also spoke often of the need for reforms of housing finance: first through his budget proposals starting in 2001, and then via his advisers' testimony to Congress starting in 2002 and then from the stump starting in August 2007 - culminating in this year's State of the Union Address, and 17 other times in 2008 alone before Congress finally decided to act. The Times left that out, too.

What's perhaps most disappointing is that, thanks to its one-sided reporting, the Times missed the opportunity to explain how our government had become, by choice, an active co-investor in America's home real-estate market, carrying a lot of risk and very little opportunity for reward.

The Times could have written about who was responsible - both Republican and Democratic lawmakers. It could have written about how a few voices - including not only President Bush and his top economic advisers, but also Fed chief Alan Greenspan and Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Summers - had repeatedly warned of the looming danger yet failed to win necessary reforms.

The Times could've done all these things, but chose not to. Beating up on Bush, it appears, is easier.

Noam Neusne

[Cynical Idealist]

If you do the math (18 million / an average of 640,000 in each district) Florida should pick up three seats.

That said, and our delegation having a republican majority, I don't think they get the input into that decision-making process that a majority democrat delegation would get.

The national D's don't want to give Florida's republican lead legislature an opportunity to send more republicans to Washington...

So, I see one, maybe, two new seats. If we're really lucky...

[Cynical Idealist]

beware of liberal democrats...

Speaking of screeds, Please explain how yours relate to an article on reapportionment?

Can you say Congressman Weatherford?

[Cynical Realist]

Last in education; First in corruption!

Liberal, Conservative… it doesn’t matter. Florida is as dirty as a 70’s John Holms flick.

Cynical - it is based on overall US population...

Yes, Cynical, you have to divide the country's population by 435, then figure out what that means per seat, then lay that against Florida's population ...

We are not last in education...we are 7th...we are not first in corruption...we are first in prosecuting corruption.

I bet there will be a new seat drawn in Broward and you will see either Congressman Jenne, Congressman Sands or Congressman Kiar

we are last in education and that is because the Republican majority continues to put there own political ideologies over the children of our state. We are also last in graduation rates. we need the Dems to take back the Senate and House so that the people of our state will have the best representation possible.

We ARE last in education... regardless of purchased methodology to gain a politically-desired result...we ARE first in corruption... and forced to prosecute based on political expedience.

… simp

Last in education in what? It's easy to parrot nonsense talking points when you are vague. Give some specifics so that we can refute your assertion that Florida is LAST in Education and First in Corruption...

It's easy to parrot nonsense talking points when you are desperately seeking to stem the ugliness of reality with the delusion of political perception.

LAST in Education & FIRST in Corruption!

I wonder if there’s a correlation… hmmmmmmm…

[Tom]

12:37 You got 'em.

11:29 - How can you say that when great leaders like Sansom are directing millions and millions of dollars to our educational institutions?

Major T-Cup action here.... MAJOR!

LAST in Education & FIRST in Corruption!

[Jim Johnson]

Representative Dean Cannon and Senator Mike Haridopolos will be leading their respective chambers during 2011-2012 sessions. I would expect that Rep. Kosmas seat will be re-drawn for one of them, with a new seat coming for the other.

The second new seat, yes I think we will get two, will be in South Florida somewhere. Tampa Bay will not get any new seats.

[jrokncsu]

Actually, Cynical and 9:49, here's how you calculate how many seats each state gets:

http://www.census.gov/population/www/censusdata/apportionment/computing.html

Basically, you need a spreadsheet and a little bit of time.

I'm sorry, Congressman Weatherford deserves a hearty HAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHA...right after there's a Congressman Joe Redner.

Do you think Ron Klien's seat will be redrawn

[mike m]

First, we need to look comprehensively at which states (and metropolitan areas) gained and lost population before we begin such wild prognostication.

For instance, I would assume that North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia have gained some population in recent years - while Florida has lost population. For instance, the Pinellas County school board is closing schools, due to some extent on real and projected population declines in this area.

Also, the census is to be conducted every TEN years - per the Constitution. According to my calendar, it is not yet even 2009 - so we still have a couple years remaining before an overall, accurate assessment of population shifts can be made.

In the interim, Florida's economy is in very poor condition - with a very problematic unemployment rate - which should only worsen during 2009. The economy of the Tampa Bay area is suffering even more acutely.

Very little has been done to address the issues of property tax and property insurance reform, which drive the cost of living "through the roof" for many home and business owners, and are contributing to our record-high foreclosure rates.

My point: The dynamics of this dire economic picture have yet to fully "play out" as it concerns resulting population shifts.

Something certainly is "dropping like a rock", but it might very well be the other shoe...

Can I buy the Congressional seat?

Let's see, which state senator should the voters promote to Congress? Mike Fasano will be drinking contaminated water from the landfill atop all our freshwater origination point that Crist is trying to stop and Fasano is Awol on.

Hmmmmm.....?

I think it should not be Fasano: it's a health issue.

[bud]

I think it will surely be Fasano. He has done a great job and is well deserving of taking it to the next level. The real question will be who will replace Weatherford when he is term limited out. The list is pretty long: Brock, Van Gorden, Hernandez, Burgess, Simpson, etc.

What are the thoughts out there?

ALL the congressional seats will be redrawn in Florida and every other state that has more than one Representative. Courts have required near identical population in each district (based on the census).
Since a GOP Legislature will draw the new lines (by joint resolution, so there is no veto) then, yes, Klein's seat will be redrawn. Probably to pack in as many white Ds as possible, which would allow more Rs to shore up other districts.