Let's play the fundraising expectations game

We've seen the grim unemployment and foreclosure numbers for Florida. Now we're about to see another telling gauge about the state of Florida's economy: campaign fundraising reports. Regrettable as it may be, money matters profoundly in statewide Florida campaigns. The greatest message ever is meaningless if a candidate lacks the money to spread it across this vast state.

So while most voters blissfully ignore the quiet campaign dramas playing out more than a year before election day, initial fundraising totals are widely watched  by the political intelligensia as a key indicator of a candidate's strength and viability.The three-month fundraising period that ended June 30 (reports are due July 10 for state candidates and July 15 for federal candidates), is especially unpredictable this year. With most every statewide office open in 2010, a slew of candidates is trying to make a big splash in the fundraising quarter to show their strength and scare off more rivals.

They're all courting a finite pool of donors in a terrible economy that has clobbered one of the biggest donor sectors - development and real estate. And they're doing it at the same time Florida's big kahuna of money-raising - Charlie Crist - is working overtime to drain the money swamp for himself.
 We're hearing lots of spin from all sides aiming to raise expectations for their opponents and lower them for their own candidate. Let's wade into the expectations game, and summarize the conventional wisdom among the political professionals in and outside the campaigns.

U.S. SENATE
Charlie Crist: The Republican governor and U.S. Senate frontrunner is to raising campaign money what Michael Jordan was to basketball. And Crist likes to break records. The last U.S. Senate fundraising record was set by Mel Martinez, who raised $1.7-million in his first quarter as a Senate candidate in 2006. Crist allies are throwing around numbers like $2.5-million, while rival Marco Rubio is suggesting at $7-million or more for Crist. But the governor's been on a money-raising marathon lately, and is asking people to give the maximum $2,400 allowed for his primary election, and another $2,400 for the general election at the same time. Considering that Democrat Kendrick Meek raised nearly $1.5-million  in the first quarter of his U.S. Senate primary, Crist as a sitting governor should trounce that. Our guesstimate for Crist? North of $4-million.
Marco Rubio: The former Republican state House Speaker from Miami is a big longshot that can't be placed in the same fundraising universe as Crist . But Rubio has done a masterful job casting himself as a great hope for ardent conservatives across the country and reports raising about $150,000 in online donations alone. We'll be watching for how many small donors he attracts nationally - people who can step up again if the campaign gains momentum. The Rubio metric? If he reports $250,000, political elites start writing him off. If he raises $1-million Rubio looks like a potentially serious force against Crist. In between, optimistic conservatives continue humoring him awhile.

GOVERNOR
In the first quarter of the 2006 governor's race, Republicans Charlie Crist raised $3.8-million, and Tom Gallagher $3.1-million. Forget it this year. Those are numbers from a bygone economy. Republican Bill McCollum only had about six weeks to raise money, but he is a dogged money-raiser, has a legion of top GOP fundraisers helping him, and the debut fundraising quarter tends to be among the easiest for a candidate. Democrat Alex Sink already had raised more than $1-million for her "re-election" as chief financial officer, most of which will be rolled into her gubernatorial campaign. It's a brutal economy and Republicans outraise Democrats in Florida, but Sink also is cast as the Democrats best hope for capturing the governor's mansion in more than a decade.
 The benchmark? At least $1-million for both in the quarter.
 DOWNBALLOT RACES
 Lower tier statewide races like chief financial officer, attorney general, and, agriculture commissioner are especially reliant on fundraising. Except for U.S. Rep. Adam Putnam, R-Bartow, who  says he added another $250,000 to the $500,000 he already had raised for his agriculture commissioner campaign, don't look for giant numbers. In the competitive Democratic primary for attorney general between south Florida state Sens. Dave Aronberg and Dan Gelber, approaching $100,000 will be a sign of viability and both should top that (Aronberg should be expected to raise more, as Gelber suspended his senate campaign). For CFO favorite Jeff Atwater, as Republican Florida Senate president, $400,000 to $500,000 is probably a solid sign of strength, though one top GOP fundraiser suggested anything less than $700,000 for Atwater would be a sign of Florida's dire economy.

Thoughts? Comment or e-mail me directly as asmith@sptimes.com

Comments

[Time]

Adam, how are you factoring length of time in to Crist, McCollum and Atwater, at least.

None of them had a full quarter, Crist had, basically 5-6 weeks, McCollum 4-5 and Atwater 3-4.

Sink, Rubio and Meek had full quarters and on top of that had their full operations up and running well before the quarter started, so they had a running start.

I say:

Crist 2.5, Rubio 1.5, Meek 1.5
McCollum 1.0, Sink 2.5
Atwater 450
Aronberg 75, Gelber 125
Baker 100

[Someone in FL]

If Sink doesn't beat McCollum this quarter then it shows she isn't raising enough.

[come on]

Rubio isn't going to raise over one million dollars this quarter and everyone knows it. The Times has set the bar too high for Rubio and too low for Crist. Let the process play itself out.

[scrub]

While Crist may be to raising campaign money what Michael Jordan was to basketball, when it comes to governing he is what Alan Ogg was to basketball.

[Santa]

They are all very good at raising money for their campaigns but none are very good at representing the TAX PAYERS!

[kevin]

crist 5 mil
rubio 500k
mccollum 1.2 mil
sink 1.5 mil
atwater 500k
arronberg 125k
gelber 100k

the 3rd quarter is really the key

[Someone else in Florida]

Someone in FL-sink better do more than just outraise mccollum, she better outraise him significantly or she's toast. She's had a bad two weeks, polls show her at a deficit that will absolutely require her to way outspend him. beating mccollum by 500k or so doesn't get her there

[Watch the line]

Watch the bottom line on Rubio, if he did raise over 500k, he will have spent nearly 75% of that number to do it.

He won't likely net more than 250, which is really all that matters

[Mine That Bird]

The recent polls in this race tell the story here, not the National Republican Senatorial Committee $ or the gaming $ or even the fundraising totals.

Over 50% of the Florida Republican voters do not yet know Marco Rubio but they certainly will.

Among those who know both Gov. Crist and Marco Rubio, the polls reflect only 33-31 Crist over Rubio. Within the margin of error at 6.

This is great news for Marco Rubio's team as Charlie Crist is a sitting governor. The Florida primary voters will decide this race.

[Timmy]

Scrub,
VERY Funny post!

For the 16 of us who got the "Alan Ogg" reference, I say "thank you".

[Fundraise for Democracy---support the rule of law and give to the cause!]

Honduran President Manuel Zelaya was awakened by soldiers who gave him a one-way ticket to exile in Costa Rica. What seemed like a prototypical Latin American military coup, however, was belied by the events leading to Zelaya's departure. Like his chief backer, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, Zelaya was intent on rewriting his country's constitution to abolish term limits.

Only the Honduran Congress, however, is legally capable of calling a constitutional convention. Unable to convince even his own ostensible legislative allies to support his scheme, Zelaya said he would implement a referendum unilaterally, and Chavez mailed the necessary ballots. When the country's Supreme Court declared his actions unconstitutional and the country's top military officer informed Zelaya that he would not carry out his orders to oversee a sham election, Zelaya fired him. Zelaya then led a mob of supporters - including armed thugs supplied by Chavez and Nicaraguan Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega - to try to steal the ballots.

On Tuesday, Zelaya was given a hero's welcome by the United Nations General Assembly. More worrying has been American complicity in the campaign to restore an authoritarian to power, beginning with U.S. co-sponsorship of a resolution stating that the removal of Zelaya "interrupted the democratic and constitutional order and the legitimate exercise of power in Honduras."

[terminator]

8:07
you seem to forget the Dems have about a 600,000+ advantage in registered voters statewide, Obama's network is firmly in place and the pubs keep self-destructing with more and more scandals everyday.
Most average everyday folks aren't impressed by these totals. They know the politicians who raise the most are the most corrupt and the one's on the take who are bought and paid for by big business.
The new voter gauge will be: the more you raise, the more corrupt you are and the more unsuitable for public office you are.
There's a new paradigm in place guys and it's not all about money anymore.
Look for many incumbents to lose big next year.

[Someone else in Florida]

1) and despite the voter registration advantage, McCollum still leads Sink in every reliable poll

2) you are an idiot

3) wouldn't that make your boy Barack the most corrupt politician in American history?

[terminator]

someone else:
"McCollum still leads Sink in every reliable poll".
Gee, maybe we should just cancel the election jerk-off since polls are always great predictors of who will win.

What makes you assume Barack is my "boy"?

No, I think you're mommy and daddy were the idiots. The gene pool ran shallow there buddy.

[Someone else in Florida]

Term, no one said that elections shouldn't be held but if you don't recognize that reliable polls are well, reliable, the maybe you should just go back to playing teachers union politics and leave the real stuff to the big girls?

[Wait N. See]

Polls are interesting, but not as much 15 months before the electiuon, and more than a year before even the primary. McCollum better not pop all his champagne yet---or, maybe he should, this could be as good as it gets.

[what's good for the goose (laying the golden egg)]

Of course Crist is raising more money!! He had fundraisers every night by every group whose bill was in his 'possible veto' pile. Talk about extortion. There should be laws in place to prevent the governor from raising money from groups whose legislation has not been finalized, just as there are laws in place for members who are not permitted to raise campaign funds while they are in session.

[Someone else in Florida]

Wait N. See, I think everyone who knows anything about politics would agree about polls 15 months out. My point all along has been is that Alex the fly-girl will have to spend a fair amount more than mccollum, just based on current name ID, fav:unfav ratios and current polls.

[terminator]

someone else:
you sound like a McCollum flak.

keep in mind he's already lost three times in statewide elections, he's old, white, pasty and has no new ideas shy of the failed GOP agenda of corporate welfare and tax breaks for multi-millionaires (you see where that's gotten us).

And, everyone will be reminded about how he was the impeachment manager in the House against the last President to balance the budget and actually leave a SURPLUS, since squandered by W/Cheney to the tune of $2 trillion dollars.

I imagine all the Dems will be out in full force on election day in November 2010.

Ideally, Sink isn't the best candidate to put forth but hey, if Charlie Crist can get elected Governor, it goes to show you just about anyone can!

[Grace]

Obama started this round-robin running for President before 1/2 way through his Senate term. Too many career politicans don't finish the job they were elected to do. Sink looked great for CFO, but before she started she had her eyes on another job and money donated for CFO rolls over to governor. Doesn't seem right. Same for Crist for governor now he's on to Senate. Heck same for Ferlita who was going to be BOCC #1 now after mayor. I just don't think any politician in FL is sincere about doing the jobs we elect them to so would rather give to save animals.

[Ben Frank]

Why are Gelber and Aronberg "viable" with only $100,000? If they don't raise at least $250,000 they are out.

[Bill Embry]

GRACE; We have Adam Putnam (R) just finishing with his senate campaign and is already running for agriculture commissioner.
His is a new phenomenon, never stop campaigning right Adam Putnam???
Makes you wonder how he gets work done doesn't it.
When I asked that question rhetorically recently,a poster anonymously said Adam could pull this off because he had a very good senate staff,he could work in Washington all week and on weekends come back to Florida and campaign!
Who is paying for his staff? Are some of his campaign staff and his US Senate staff one and the same? Are taxpayers paying for some of his campaign staff?
I like Eric Draper for Agriculture commissioner,he has a plan for the money coming in from cap and trade to induce a green tech industry here in Florida.I want to see our state be the leader in Green tech/solar farming,Reclaim our title as Aqua culture/fish farming capital.
Eric Draper is a conservationist with a business head.He is perfect for the job.Not all farming is ran like a big business,as Putnam wants.
Go Eric Draper!!!

[Idiocy]

Bill Embry, by writing your diatribe about Adam Putnam being a Senator, you make yourself look like and idiot and make your buddy Draper look just as bad.

You know, in America, there is a difference between a Congressman and a Senator.

[Ag race]

Both have only been in for a few weeks. If they raise $250, they should run for Gov.

[Bill Embry]

Well Goodness,late night posting w/out
proofing,geeesh I guess ya got me,I made a mistake but you do know if you read my other post about him a couple days ago I did correctly address him as Congressman.
Let me guess,Republican right?
Are you one of those tough pitbull Republicans like Sarah? Dish out an insult as soon as possible but can't take criticism. You DID not address the year round non stop campaigning of Putnam did you?
Putnam is as ethical as a box of rattle snakes. There is no way he can be giving full attention to his job,the one he just got and is already planning his exit to another.
Maybe I hit a nerve about how much time his congressional staff spend's during the week on his campaign for Ag commish???
No matter what,never respond to WHAT someone says,just respond to HOW they say it. That's an unwritten rule for extremists.

[Equalizer]

It does not matter how much coin the Tan Man raises he is going to be up against it in the GOP primary unless the GOP finds a spot suitable to bestow upon Marco Rubio.

Crist just may have been suckered by those who think they are smarter than they really are. If Crist stays on as governor Sink probably doesn't run. Rubio would be doing just fine raising money to run against Meek et al. Then Crist could have taken on Nelson for his Senate seat. But the RPOF aka the Tan Man and Greer club doesn't look at what is best for the people of Florida or for conservatives or even for Republicans. No they get some delusion of granduer in their heads and go full tilt. The problem for them this time is the stakes are getting higher, more people are involved, interested and reviewing actual results OPPS, did I say results.

[Carly]

Bill McCollum may get lots of "free media advertising" in the next 16 months being that he is the Attorney General. When do you see a CFO on t.v.

[zenator]

The topic of this post concerns raising hard money and dealing with expectations.

Take my word my for it, it is ten times easier to raise money for a candidate that is percieved to be the likely winner. Maybe it is just human nature, but donors don't want to "waste" their money on a likely "loser."

The first quarter reports go a long way towards shaping conventional wisdom. That is why there is so much spinning from the campaigns as they try to lower expectations for their candidate and raise expectations for the opposition.

My own sense is that Crist, in 6 weeks of fund-raising, will easily surpass the previous quarterly record of $1.7 million. I do not have a good sense about how Rubio is doing because their is a lot of disinformation out there. But, IMO he better have raised 40% or more of the money that Crist reports. For example, if Crist comes in at $2 million, Marco better report $800,000 or better.

[terminator]

Zenator:
"fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me"

thus will be the title of Chuck Crist's 2010 Senate campaign.

the thing you seem to forget about Chuck's prodigious fundraising is how many Floridians know who the "real" Chuck Crist is this time!

WWJD: translation: wonder what Jeb will do? Do you think he'll make an endorsement this time at a critical juncture in the campaign??

[Quick MOney]

Aronberg only announced three weeks ago. If he raises six figures, that's outstanding, given the nature of the race at this point.
As for others, I agree with zenator, as usual.

[zenator]

Termie:

As you may recall, Gallager's early campaign strategy was to portray himself as the inevitable candidate. That strategy failed when Crist out- raised him by about 25% during the first quarter. Gallager never recovered even though he had wide name recognition having previously won a state-wide election.

Crist ironically has adopted a similar strategy in his race against Rubio, although I suspect that there is little danger that Rubio will do to him what Crist did to Gallager.

Rubio has never run, much less won, a statewide race. As a consequence, he is starting from far behind and will need a lot of money to buy the media needed to introduce himself favorably to the primary voters and put himself in a position to compete.

Right now, the focus of the race is not on Crist. It is on Rubio.

[Enquiring minds]

Zenator, do you think LeMieux will go to Washington with Charlie?

What about Greer?

[zenator]

Enquiring minds:

No on both. LeMieux is sitting pretty where he is. Can't say the same for Greer, who is regarded as toxic by many conservatives.

[terminator]

Zenator:
you still didn't answer the part about what Jeb will do?
I get the feeling he won't be sitting this one out.

[zenator]

Termie:

From what I heard, the table was all set for Martinez to resign and for Crist to appoint Jeb to the senate, but Jeb decided to take a pass.

Jeb is no fan of Crist and I presume had to give his blessing before his son endorsed Rubio. But, I doubt that Jeb himself openly endorses Rubio in the near term.

IMO it is too risky. Rubio is simply too much of a long shot at this stage. If he is perceived as a Jeb surrogate and loses, then it will undermine Jeb greatly.

[Paul D. Harvill]

To the St. Petersburg Times and Miami Herald journalists:

Please provide us detailed information and analysis regarding the reports due on July 10th.

In advance, thank you very, very, very much.

Sincerely,

Paul D. Harvill
Tallahassee

[Paul D. Harvill]

Unfortunately, this is legalized renting, extortion and bribery.

[terminator]

Zenator:
thanks for your comments.

[beachbum]

Democrat's use of plane prompts GOP-Dorworth, Crisafulli, Horner and Hudson to call for probe: http://bit.ly/17aNi