Neck & neck or blowout? Dueling polls shows Rivera leads Flores

Two Miami Republican representatives running for Senate. Two rival polls. Two results. One conclusion: David Rivera leads Anitere Flores in the Republican race for District 38.

But by how much does he lead?

Rivera's poll of 300 likely voters, conducted by FIU pollster Dario Mareno, shows Rivera leads Flores 34% to 15% and leads her among every demographic. Since posting this, we've gotten three emails noting that Mareno contributed $250 to Rivera's campaign.

Flores' poll of 300 voters, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, shows a Rivera with just a 3-point lead (25% to 22%). That's well within the poll's 5.6% margin of error. Also, the poll says that Flores leads Rivera 45% to 28% among those who know both candidates. Note: the error margin for this subset is far higher.

Flores reported a $150k haul in the last quarter. No word yet on how much Rivera raised, though conventional wisdom suggests he raised more.

-- Marc Caputo

Two Miami Republican representatives running for Senate. Two rival polls. Two results. One conclusion: David Rivera leads Anitere Flores in the Republican race for District 38.

But by how much does he lead?

Rivera's poll of 300 likely voters, conducted by FIU pollster Dario Mareno, shows Rivera leads Flores 34% to 15% and leads her among every demographic. Since posting this, we've gotten three emails noting that Mareno contributed $250 to Rivera's campaign.

Flores' poll of 300 voters, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, shows a Rivera with just a 3-point lead (25% to 22%). That's well within the poll's 5.6% margin of error. Also, the poll says that Flores leads Rivera 45% to 28% among those who know both candidates. Note: the error margin for this subset is far higher.

Flores reported a $150k haul in the last quarter. No word yet on how much Rivera raised, though conventional wisdom suggests he raised more.

-- Marc Caputo

Comments

[Human]

Dario Mareno is a buffon who will tell you what you want to hear.

He is the genius that has predicted failure for Luis Garcia in 06 and 08.

Rivera should take this as encouraging and keeping working his butt off.

[Fred]

It doesn't matter how much Rivera raises, for every dollar he extorts from lobbyists, we give it to him and then we turn around and work against him to make sure he doesn't get elected!

[The end of Rivera!]

Does anyone know what Rivera does for a living?

[NomoreRivera]

Rivera is a liar. He is discourteous. He is vulgar. His staff is loud and vulgar.

[Gina]

What David Rivera, and others like him fail to realize is that eventually, IT CATCHES UP WITH YOU. The lies, the people you offend, the stories you make up, the promises you break, the people you hurt, all of it. And one day, it all unites and works against you! Bye David!

[save it]

So we're expected to believe a pollster that contributes to the campaign he predicts as the winner. If that doesn't spell conflict of interest I don't know what does!

[DontExtortMeBro]

"For every point Anitere gets in a poll now, Dario Moreno will invent 2 or 3 times that in the next one". -David Rivera

[Gator(R)]

Haven't a clue what he is really like, but Rivera has always been very polite and friendly to me and he doesn't know who I am.

Flores seems bright and determined. Not my race, but should be interesting.

[.....]

The Moreno poll sounds to high and the POS poll to low...probably somewhere in between. I bet David is up by about 10-12%.

[Iknowhim]

Rivera is a jackass!

[00]

Please turn it on Anitere - keep at it.

We are trying to run the junk out of Tallahassee, not promote it.

Rivera would be one of the darkest eras on the Senate ever.

Yeah, what exactly does David do for a living?

[iknowhimtoo]

Rivera only knows how to govern by fear, intimidation, lying, cheating, manipulating, scheming...could go on forever. Maybe he'll actually try standing for something other than himself sometime.

[rivera should resign with ray]

I think I've seen Dario Mareno camping out in Rivera's Tallahassee office with the rest of his paid Miami goons. That place is a legislative office, fundraising operation, campaign headquarters, polling firm, beauty salon and daycare all at the same time! Makes me dizzy just thinking about it.

[Good food for thought]

Printing Dario Moreno's polls without acknowledging he is a for hire pollster, not a university scholar should really be examined.
The polls are hapless. Antiere is doing far better than minus 19, the district numbers of what she represents versus Rivera frankly demand it.
Did Moreno show you the data? Heck no.
POS is a respected firm, she was smart to hire them and get those numbers out.

[Iknowhimthree]

Rivera personifies everything dark and dirty that has tarnished the political system. Anyone who thinks he was "very polite and friendly" really does not know the man.

[Tallypro]

Of course you've seen Dario Moreno camping out at Rivera's office - he's there quite often. They're both slimy.

Frankly, Rivera gives me the creeps!

[Itoowanttoknow]

Great question - What DOES Rivera do for a living?

He lists his occupation as: PUBLIC AFFAIRS CONSULTANT. For whom has he worked? We'd like to see a list of his clients and projects.

[Slick]

Huh? Is Rivera's street team out on vacation? Once they read this expect: 1. A posting of the same 5 yr old article from the Miami Herald 2. Mention of Anitere as a Mommy's girl and 3. Accusing her of being in the hands of lobbyists.

The race was more fun when Llorente was still in it because his team and Rivera's would sling muuuuch better dirt at one another.

[American of Cuban ancestry]

The single most disgusting thing about Rivera is how he "wraps" himself in the Cuban flag and pretends to be more Cuban than anyone else. I personally find that offensive. My parents fled Cuba's communist regime and I had an uncle shot by a firing squad. Several of my father's friends risked their lives in Bay of Pigs trying to liberate their homeland. How DARE Rivera label himself as a "future mayor of Cienfuegos"? He is ignorant and a complete clown!

[ab]

Follow the Money....
Among his many tricks, David Rivera has a PAC called Future Leadership. This PAC serves as a pass-through for contributions and lobbyist Esther Nuhfer is the bag lady. Back in Cienfuegos we called this "money-laundering". That's just one of his magic tricks...

[It's over dude!]

David, it must be difficult to accept - but, IT'S OVER dude!

Word of warning: Careful Anitere! This man can be dangerous, and when he realizes he's going to lose, there's no telling just what he'll be capable of doing.

[make me laugh harder please]

Wait, is this the same Dario Moreno who predicted that:
1. Ralph Perez beats Erik Fresen
2. Jorge Luis Lopez unseats Luis Garcia
3. Frank Bolanos takes out Alex Villalobos
AND
4. Marco Rubio kills Mayor Carlos Alvarez...and then decides not to run.

If I were Rivera I wouldn't take this poll to the bank and cash it.

[Larcenia]

Anitere is a dingbat. It hurts my head when I listen to her try to string two coherent thoughts together.

[just a thought]

Maybe Mareno gave $250 because he wanted to support the likely winner. People do it all the time.

Rivera can joke about it but it's true. For every dollar she collects from lobbyist and special interests, they had better come through with 3 more for him, or whoever the the Approps chair might be, in this race or any other. That's just the way it is, and always has been. Anitere, you should just stay in the house so that you can become the approps chair, and do the same thing. Then run for any office you like after that, or you can stay home for a few years with your new baby. At least keep a top leadership post for 3 more years, guaranteed.

[give it a rest, the voters love Rivera]

wow Custin, you must be working ot. Isn't your dog out of this race? Let me guess, you are endorsing Flores.

[no one is buying it]

10:44 you know just like everyone else who Custin is supporting now. your pathetic attempt to stir the pot is so last year. get a new one already...

[DontExtortMeBro]

So we now have the Rivera team openingly admitting once again that they plan to use the budget process to punish any lobbyist that helps Flores. (See 10:42pm)

I'll give it to them, they're right that it's "just the way it is and always has been". Ask Ray Sansom...he learned the hard way though! Rivera are you next?

Cretul, we're begging you to please put a stop to this blatant attempt at extortion.

[give it a rest, the voters love Rivera]

No 10:49 I really don't know who Custin is supporting. Nor do I care. And you want to talk about last year, Custin has been posting the same crap for the LAST 5 YEARS about Rivera.

And I do remember reading somewhere that Lorente threw his support behind Rivera. I can't imagine that even Lorente could convince Custin to support Rivera.

Very pathetic.

[Brain Farts - involuntary release of ignorance]

Whoever Custin is supporting, I'm supporting the other guy, or in this case, girl.

[who cares]

If you don't care so much then why do you even bring him up? You must have some secret crush on him or something? No one else was even talking about that guy until you did...

[givemeabreakharry]

Very "interesting comments". Read Rivera's bio....Regardless of your feelings for the guy, he is a "very" legit candidate..MOST of those "hacks" in Tally try to extort bucks for votes......Some more subtle than others. At least there is term limits, unlike Congress where the REAL DAMAGE is done! You want to rant about someone, then mount an effort to get rid of anyone in Congress who has been corrupted by more than 16 years in office. THAT should be the term limit..

Flores is a very nice person,smart but not very flexible..Rivera has the good sense to treat politics like a business...Flexible,working with clients,listens and considers alternative choices.....Too strong on Cuba although many appreciate his stance.

[noYOUgivemeabreak]

So 8:00am what you're saying is that if everyone else jumped off a bridge you would too...

Just because "extorting" campaign contributions, subtle or not, has become business as usual, does NOT mean that it's LEGAL. If your reasoning were true, Ray Sansom would not be going to trial...the jury and state attorney would have just said "hey, that's how they always do the budget".

[Jimmy]

I don't understand, the man wins, he is hard working and dedicated to making thing happen for his constituents. While 90% of the legislator are messing around with drugs, sex and alcohol up in Tallahassee, this guy spends literally spends every second working. You can say what you like, but the man has moved up the political ranks due to the fact he is smart and gets things done.

[Rivera is scum]

Wouldn't extorting campaign contributions from lobbyists fall under the category of "public misconduct"? Meggs... where are you???

[Insider]

Hey "Jimmy", I mean Anthony, we all know it's you. Maybe you should read the blogs more often and you would know that Rivera has issues with quite a few of the things you previously mentioned.

Get back to work, Rivera is paying you good money.

[Lobbyist with a conscience]

I'm so sick of hearing my fellow lobbyists complain about how corrupt and incompetent the legislators are, and now they have a clear choice of who they should support. And what do they do? Out of fear, they support the very type of candidate they love to bash. Do you actually think he's gonna give you the time of day once he gets elected? So to all you lobbyists who are supporting corrupt candidates,you get what you PAY for. This is your chance to make a difference, put up or shut up! Grow some!

[joegarcia]

Please somebody tell me what Rivera does for a living? What income and sources has he reported? How does he pay his electric bill?

[No more extortion]

Everyone knows Flores gets lobbyists to pay for everything, including her engagement party!

[To all the morons]

To the MORONS who keep repeating the ridiculous nonsense about Flores' engagement party:
Do you REALLY think that was her ENGAGEMENT PARTY??? Are you crazy - are you really THAT clueless?

20 people in a Chinese restaurant for one hour? (Besides it was before the gift ban!)

You IDIOTS are still green with envy - MORE THAN THREE YEARS LATER - that you didn't get invited to her REAL ENGAGEMENT PARTIES!!! Ask the people who were there! Look it up in the society pages!!!

[time for a change]

Rivera wanted Appropriations. Sansom gave it to him - but made him share it with Llorente. Rivera wasn't happy, so he threw Sansom under the bus. (That's the way crooks treat one another).

Now Cretul has a chance of ending the status quo. GET RID OF BOTH OF THEM!

[Flores is a class act!]

Flores has it all: She's smart, good speaker, good debater, good looking and above all, she's got class!

[the economist]

Someone really needs to find out what Rivera's occupation is? Self-employed public affairs consultant? Fine.
Who has hired him?
How much was he paid?
What projects did he promote?
Was he successful?

[Disgusted]

You can’t justify corruption. Elected officials like Flores should not have lobbyists pay for their engagement parties. That’s how it all starts.

[disgusted is unimaginative]

Rivera and his crew are such retards they can't come up with anything real on Flores!

[Just say NO to Rivera]

Rivera is an incompetent and incoherent fraud.

[Dear Disgusted]

Have you ever been to visit Rivera in his legislative office? Oh wait, that's right. You work there! You have a desk right outside the door where you conduct your lobbying/consulting/fundraising business.

[Slick]

C'mon! This is BOOOORRRRIIIINNGG!!!! I wish Llorente would get back in the race, Anitere has nothing to talk smack about and Rivera's transgressions are well known.

Anthony, thanks for not posting the article again. I'm glad even you realized it was getting old.