UPDATED: From the Florida Democratic Delegate Front: Lots of movement, but standing still

With her chances of winning fading, Hillary Clinton sent Barack Obama a letter Thursday imploring him to ask the Democratic National Committee to make all of Florida's and Michigan's delegates count towards the presidential nomination.

Most of Florida's congressional Democrats also sent DNC Chairman Howard Dean a letter asking him to help ensure a decision is made by May 31, when the Rules and Bylaws Committee meets to hear an appeal of Florida's case. The state lost its delegates for holding its primary on Jan. 29, a week earlier than party rules allowed.

Meanwhile, at about the same time those letters were released, the Associated Press caused an uproar by reporting that the DNC, the Florida Democratic Party, Obama and Clinton were "on the verge" of striking a deal for seating some portion of Florida's 211 delegates.

It turned out to be wrong, however.

How to push Clinton out

If Obama wants to eliminate one of Clinton's last rationales for staying in the race, and if he wants to curb the considerable skepticism about his interest and ability to compete in America's biggest battleground state, he should start mending Sunshine State fences and speak out about counting Florida's votes.

"That could potentially open the floodgates for superdelegates to come on board if he was that gracious and that comfortable in his inevitability to win the nomination,'' said Bob Buckhorn, a Democratic consultant in Tampa who backs Clinton. "It would go a long way to ease the anger that remains over Florida's votes not counting."

More here.

Gelber endorses Obama

Dan Gelber, one of Florida's wannabe super-delegates, blogs his endorsement of Obama: "...Doesn’t he have a Jewish problem? Yes, but only because the Internet doesn’t have a truth key. Don’t believe everything you read in a viral chain email. As an American Jew, a strong and secure Israel is a paramount concern of mine. Not a single fiber in my body worries that Sen. Obama will not cherish Israel with the same fervor I would expect of any American President. Anyone who says otherwise is simply trying to exploit passions for Israel for partisan gain – and that is truly endangering to Israel....

Why not count FL votes, Obama?

Rules are rules and all that. But Barack Obama has all but clinched the nomination, Hillary Clinton can't catch up in delegates or popular vote even if Michigan and Florida are suddenly counted 100%. So why doesn't the presumptive nominee take the issue off the table, make nice with the Sunshine state, and join Sen. Bill Nelson's call to fully seat Florida's delegation based on Jan. 29 but only give delegates half a vote? More specifically, cut that half so she nets 19 delegates rather than a measly 6 that would keep her campaign complaining about disenfranchisement.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe: "Obviously there's a lot of discussion about remedies in Florida and we've expressed openness to those. I think the Clinton campaign has been less willing to consider anything other than full seating of the delegates and so we're hopeful that dialogue will continue. And again I don't think the results of Florida and Michigan are going to be used in any way to overturn the outcome of this election. ...

Clinton finished?

Hillary Rodham Clinton wanted a "game changer," but Tuesday may prove to be a game ender. Even though Clinton eked out a victory early today, her momentum was halted. Her last grasp at the nomination now may hinge on counting Florida's officially meaningless primary.

"The last month has been an exercise in denial, and the only thing that's been accomplished is her attempt to hurt Barack Obama,'' said Fort Lauderdale lawyer Mitchell Berger, veteran Democratic fundraiser and Obama supporter. "Tonight should show the superdelegates that there's no question that Sen. Obama has withstood the body blows and has shown not just by what has happened but by the way he has dealt with it that he is able to appeal to us in a better way than just division," Berger said.

More here.

Mahoney's Obama/Clinton poll

U.S. Rep. Tim Mahoney, D-Palm Beach Gardens, one of Florida's would-be super delegates, says he's not inclined to choose between Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama yet, because neither is actively working to seat Florida's Democratic delegates. "It makes no sense to reward Barack or Hillary without Florida," he said.

But he has talked with both of them, and says his district appears split: In a poll commissioned for his campaign last month, Clinton and Obama were running about equal. As has been the pattern elsewhere, Clinton polled better among traditional working-class Democrats, while Obama's strength came from middle- and upper-income Democrats, as well as independents and a small number of Republicans.

His mixed rural, suburban and urban district runs from Palm Beach County through the belly of the state to the Gulf Coast.

Those anxious Fl Dems

The RPOF came up with this nifty illustration to honor the Floridians who recently picketed the DNC, and we needed an excuse to post it. So here are two views from uncommitted would-be superdelegates from Florida about the importance of Democrats getting a nominee soon:

U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd thinks it would be fine for the Obama/Clinton contest to continue to the convention: "I'm in no rush to decide, and I don't think the fact that the primary battle is continuing hurts the party. If anything it may help the country understand the two candidates a little better."

DNC member Janee Murphy of Tampa hopes the the DNC rules and bylaws committee resolves Florida on May 31: "My whole focus is having a campaign here in Florida to secure the 27 electoral votes for whoever the nominee is. In my opinion August will make it tough for us to put together a campaign. The grass roots people need to have the resources now to start gearing up for the general.

Gas tax politics

We could hardly have a better issue than the gas tax debate to encapsulate, in near-caricature form, the different styles of these two formidable candidates. There's ruthless Hillary Clinton, the say-anything, do-anything-to-win candidate, shamelessly pandering while economist after economist slams her (and John McCain) for proposing a federal gas tax hiatus that they say is lousy policy. And there's Barack Obama, Adlai Stevenson reincarnated, who relates to eggheads in faculty lounges and newspaper editorial boards far better than working stiffs desperate for a little relief at the gas pump.

Democratic pollster Dave Beattie, who is not working for either campaign, said one reason the gas tax holiday is not more popular is because many voters have seen firsthand that such proposals produce little relief at the pump. "When you do something repeatedly and people don't see a change, they get skeptical,'' said Beattie, who is based in Jacksonville. "In Florida we've had a gas tax holiday, and I bet if you asked the average Floridian if they saved money I don't think they'd remember the gas tax holiday."

More here. Meanwhile Charlie Crist's failed push for a gas tax holiday get him on the New York Times front page today:

Insider prediction: FL delegates to get half votes

Gary Shay, a DNC rules and bylaws committee member from California, told Democrats in his state he is confident Florida's delegate mess will be resolved when the committee meets May 31, though Michigan remains murkier:

"What I anticipate will happen is that—and I have not received any communications from anybody, this is just my own thoughts on the matter—that the superdelegates will likely be seated from both states. That Florida will be seated with a half delegate for each pledged delegate based upon the January results. The concept there being that there must be some punishment for violating the rules, and at the same time, excluding those two states is very difficult, and as far as Michigan is concerned, that’s anybody’s guess. I have no idea what is going to happen with them."

FL Hispanics going Dem

Politico: "For the first time, the number of Hispanic Democrats in the state is expected to exceed the number of Hispanic Republicans. ... The significance of the numerical flip is mostly symbolic, but it's a powerful symbol at a key moment: Quietly, Democrats are debating whether to mount a full-out, expensive challenge to Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, in Florida, or essentially cede its 27 Electoral College votes to theGOP. "

FL Poll: McCain beats Obama, not Clinton

4/30-5/1 robo poll of 623 registered Florida voters by War Room Logistics of Gainesville: John McCain 47%, Barack Obama 40% (independents - 45% McCain, 38 percent Obama); McCain 44%, Hillary Clinton 45% (independents 39 McCain, 39 Clinton).

52% said Gov. Charlie Crist is doing a good or excellent job, and 47 percent said fair or poor. 51% said the economy was the top issue, followed by the Iraq war at 15%.

Diverse trio to press DNC

Democratic National Committee member Jon Ausman of Tallahassee is bringing some back-up troops with him to Washington to appeal the DNC’s stripping away of Florida’s 211 delegates. Also expected to make presentations are DNC members Janee Murphy of Tampa and former Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez. It never hurts to be represented not just by a white male, but an African-American woman and Hispanic man when arguing that Florida’s votes should count.

State Democratic chairwoman Karen Thurman is expected to attend, but not necessarily speak.

Kucinich to Florida's rescue

Former presidential candidate and OH Rep. Dennis Kucinich is circulating a plan to fix the Florida and Michigan delegates mess, reports CQ: "...The plan would base the distribution of delegates on polling conducted by three firms, one selected by each campaign and a third chosen by the other two companies. Delegates would be apportioned based on the composite findings of the three polls. None of the firms could have previously been employed by either campaign..."

Poll: McCain in trouble in FL

Start measuring those vice presidential mansion drapes, Charlie Crist. Quinnipiac University's latest swing state poll shows Hillary Clinton beating McCain in Florida 49 - 41 percent, while McCain gets 44 percent to Barack Obama's 43 percent (moe +/- 2.6). She's also handily beating McCain in PA and OH.

From the release: "Facing McCain in November, Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent among women, while he gets 45 percent of men to her 43 percent. They tie 45 - 45 percent among white voters, while she leads 80 - 11 percent among black voters. In an Obama-McCain matchup, men back McCain 46 - 42 percent, while women split, with 44 percent for Obama and 42 percent for McCain. The Republican leads among white voters 50 - 36 percent, while the Democrat leads among black voters 83 - 8 percent. "

Is Rev. Wright killing Obama?

Sen. Steve Geller, a potential super-delegate, says he's not jumping to any conclusions and will wait until he sees polling in key states like FL, PA, and OH around the end of May to decide whether he's for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Obama may have the nomination nearly locked up, but the view from Seymour, Ind. was grim: "Hillary Rodham Clinton's longshot bid to overtake Obama for the nomination suddenly seems not so far-fetched. But more clear, and sad, is the sense that this presidential race is now doomed to be mired in race, that Obama's promise to bridge racial divisions may be shattered.

"How did we get from point A to point B?" Mary Ann Pardieck, a law firm administrator and Obama supporter in Seymour, glumly asked Tuesday. "Point A was this wonderful, hopeful period around Iowa when it seemed like we could get beyond all that," she said. "Now we've progressed into this morass. The campaign has degenerated into these conversations I don't want to be having and which I don't think are helpful to the country."  More HERE.

Obama launches nationwide voter drive

The Obama campaign is planning a national voter registration drive it boasts will be most aggressive in history.

In Florida, the effort gets under way May with locations in Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, Palm Beach County, Ft. Myers, Sarasota, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, Tallahassee and Pensacola.

Dean: Blame the FL pols, not me

DNC Chairman Howard Dean on Meet the Press sounded to us more sympathetic to Barack Obama's position - no way can Hillary Clinton net a bunch of delegates out of Fl's officially meaningless primary - than Clinton's count all the votes stance. Dean: "First, you've got to respect the voters. The voters of Michigan and Florida were not the people that screwed this all up. It was politicians. Secondly, you have to respect the candidates. They went in on a set of rules that everybody voted for, including Michigan and Florida, before they changed their mind, but -- and so you can't really change the rules and alter the course of the race. And thirdly, you got to respect the 48 states that did respect the rules."

Dean said he expects Michigan will have some say in the nomination ultimately, but there's no indication he has any more sway with members of the rules and bylaws committee taking up challenges from the states than he did with the Democrats who set primaries in FL and MI. He also brushed off criticism of his handling of MI and FL.

Conflicts of interests on DNC rules panel?

UPDATE: Seems Katz is wrong on this, according to Karen Finney at the DNC. There is no prohibition on RBC members working on campaigns (Donna Brazile didn't step down while working for Al Gore), although Katz, the only Floridian on the panel, is right that he can't vote. The rules say a member can't vote on a challenge "arising in his or her own state."

So that's one less pro-Obama vote on the committee, but we're thinking it's somehow fitting that Florida's vote won't count on whether or not Florida's votes should count. Phil Singer at the Clinton campaign weighs in on the jump.

So now that the DNC’s rules and bylaws committee has agreed to consider a couple of appeals to reinstate Florida’s delegates to the national convention, accusations of conflict of interest are surfacing.

Rules committee member Allan Katz, a top Barack Obama fundraiser, says he may call on a couple prominent committee members, Harold Ickes and Tina Flournoy, to recuse themselves from the May 31 vote because they are working for the Hillary Clinton campaign.

"If your’e being paid that would normally be considered a conflict of interest,’’ said Katz, who said he may also be precluded from voting because he is a super-delegate directly effected by the decision. That would also eliminate Michigan Democratic party chairman Mark Brewer.

DNC to hear FL Dem appeals on May 31

Three days before the final voting in the Democratic primary, the DNC's rules and bylaws committee will take up Jon Ausman's challenges to the committee's stripping FL of all its delegates. The committee members will have an informal dinner in DC Friday, the 30th, and then take up the issue most of the next day.

Most nose counters think more RBC members are Clinton backers than Obama backers.

Superdel Ausman:I'll declare when Dean does

From DNCer Jon Ausman: "DNC Chair Howard Dean has asked all the superdelegates to declare their preferences as soon as possible.  After Howard Dean announces his preference, I will think about making up my mind and announce mine.

"My choice will be based on the following three criteria:  one, which candidate is most likely to get 270 electoral votes and win the Presidency; two, which candidate will help us pick up US Senate seats; and, three, which candidate will help us pick up US Representative seats in the House."

On the jump we're pasting much of Ausman's latest mass e-mail, because he has a good a sense as anybody on what's doing with his challenges to get Fl delegates restored

Florida votes irrelevant?

Nearly 1.75-million Democrats voted in Florida's officially meaningless presidential primary, and it remains to be seen whether Florida will send any delegates to the national convention. But in this Twilight Zone of a campaign, a more cosmic question arises: Do the Florida votes actually exist?

In Barack Obama world the answer is no. Clinton's 295,000-vote victory margin in Florida is basically imaginary. The candidates chose not to campaign in the state, the argument goes, so the votes should be purged from the minds of any uncommitted superdelegate.

On planet Hillary Clinton, those Florida votes are as real as the White House itself. We cannot pretend a record turnout of voters never happened. More here.

The latest on FL's DNC appeals

Is the DNC's rules and bylaws committee going to finally step up and act on the pending appeals by Jon Ausman, arguing the rules require some of Florida's delegates be seated, or wait for the credentials committee in July or August?

Sen. Bill Nelson ain't optimistic: "They're just slow-walking this thing, they're dragging it out. There's been no leadership to try to resolve this issue going back to last August, and as a result we are where we are, so nothing's going to be done until basically you have a winner."

But Ausman, after venting the other day, says he's talked to "a lot of people" familiar with the matter and now thinks Florida will get a hearing in about six weeks: "I think the rules and bylaws committee is going to try to handle this before it gets to the credentials committee,'' he said.

Plouffe: Clinton blocking FL resolution

Barack Obama campaign manager David Plouffe today on the Florida/Michigan delegate mess: "We think the fairest outcome again is a splitting of the delegates 50/50, which would allow them to be seated but we're listening to other proposals. But the Clinton campaign seems to be not in favor of any resolution except for the most extreme one, and I don't think a fair reading of that would suggest that's a  good outcome. We're the party now that's most interested in some resolution. The Clinton campaign simply wants the results of those contests to be ratified, and they're not going to be...."

Nelson: 8-point Hillary win is "blowout"

On Morning Joe, Bill Nelson said the DNC has "slapped Florida around enough now" and responded to whether Hillary Clinton should consider dropping out if Barack Obama gets within 5 points in today's PA primary.

NELSON: "There will be pressure for her to do that. But if her win is 8 to 10 points, it's a blowout. And she's going to have new life."

Obama'$ 52,000 FL donors

Here's what the campaign reports through 3/31. Impressive:

$9,138,833. 52,173 donors. 96,292 contributions. March: 17,905 donors. 22,320 contributions. 94% under $200.

Obama's electability questions

Let's step back from convention wisdom that says Hillary Clinton must beat Barack Obama huge today. Is it so silly to expect that Obama — all but anointed as the inevitable nominee, campaigning full throttle and outspending Clinton more than 2-to-1 in Pennsylvania — should win a primary in a crucial swing state? Is it naive to think that the likely Democratic nominee should not struggle to win over Democrats in big states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida?

"Clearly it's going to be awfully hard for him to win some of those big states that Hillary Clinton's won,'' said Clinton supporter and former Tampa Mayor Sandy Freedman, noting Obama's difficulty in winning over working-class white voters. "After you've spent I don't know how many tens of million of dollars, you've had 21 debates, and you've targeted those voters and aren't winning them, what does it say about your chances in November?"

Florida is a trickier question, as neither candidate campaigned in the state. But show me a candidate struggling to win over Hispanic voters and Jewish voters, as Obama has, and I see someone with dubious prospects in the Sunshine State. More here.

DNC stalling FL, hoping Clinton drops out?

STORY HERE: "There’s obviously a stall going on. .... They’re treating Florida worse than their own dog,’’ said Jon Ausman of Tallahassee, who five weeks ago filed two appeals with the Democratic National Committee’s rules and bylaws committee, arguing that the committee overstepped its authority in stripping away all of Florida’s delegates to the national convention.

For weeks, Ausman said he has been unable to get calls returned the prominent co-chairs of that committee, Alexis Herman and Jim Roosevelt, or any word on how the committee will proceed. Either they want to wait until a candidate drops out of the race or don’t want to admit they made a mistake in punishing Florida so severely for setting a primary earlier than the DNC allowed, Ausman said.

Obama camp scoffs at Hillary on FL

re: Clinton's St. Pete Times interview:

"Senator Clinton has proven that she will say or do anything to win and, in this case, is saying something that is flatly not true. If Clinton truly cared about the Michigan and Florida delegations being represented at the convention, she'd support efforts to resolve this matter today with an even split of the delegates. While she continues to play politics, we'll continue to work to achieve a fair resolution," said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.

Hillary: Count Florida's votes!

In an exclusive interview with the St. Petersburg Times, Clinton offered her most extensive remarks on the delegate problem and pushed back at the Democratic National Committee's philosophy of having the campaigns approve a settlement.

"I don't think it's up to Sen. (Barack) Obama or me to dictate any resolution. I think it's up to the DNC to decide how to proceed, and I would hope that it would do so recognizing what's at stake,'' Clinton said in the interview late Sunday. "It would be tragic if we came out of this process ignoring the will of 1.7-million Floridians, setting us up for a very unhappy electorate in the fall, giving Republicans this incredible argument they could make against us." 

Story here. Transcript here with an audio snippet.

FL poll: McCain crushes Obama, not Clinton

Rasmussen robo poll: McCain 53%, Obama 38%... McCain 44%, Clinton 45%.

Forget Rubio running for mayor

House speaker Marco Rubio won't run for Miami-Dade mayor - "even though he would win," predicted FIU's Dario Moreno on a panel for the Florida Political Science Association meeting in St. Pete today. Moreno happens to do polling for Rubio.

Moderated by USF's Susan MacManus, the panel included Moreno, USF-St. Pete's Darryl Paulson, UCF's Aubrey Jewett, and yours truly. Among the consensus conclusions: Hillary Clinton would be a stronger candidate in FL than Barack Obama; Charlie Crist is unlikely to get tapped for VP; Democrats will pick up a few legislative seats (though Moreno predicted Luis Garcia will lose his). Three out of four guessed that John McCain will be the next POTUS.

Crist: Obama will be formidable

"He'll be very formidable if he's the nominee. I think he's very engaging, and obviously has a tremendous following," Gov. Charlie Crist said of Barack Obama today, while stressing he would never underestimate Clinton's ability to come back.

But asked about the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy, the potential vice presidential candidate said Obama "didn't handle it great" but declined to elaborate or weigh in on whether Obama should have left the church. "He should do what he thinks is right for him. ... That's obviously been a difficult situation for him. Some of the comments I've seen the pastor make are hard for me to imagine."

In his visit to the St. Pete Times editorial board below, Crist also had some friendly fencing with Paul Tash, the Times' editor, Chairman and CEO over the guns at work bill Crist is expected to sign. See below.

Crist off one VP short list

Marc Ambinder thinks Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is the most likely pick for John McCain ("Some people close to McCain say McCain had pretty much made up his mind (for Pawlenty) a year ago").  Others who "have a shot:"  Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, Gov. Mark Sanford of South Carolina, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, and, as a wildcard, Colin Powell.For Barack Obama, Ambinder mentions Tom Daschle, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Bill Richardson, Chuck Hagel.

UPDATE: Ambinder responds to a Florida Democratic party release jumping on his comments: "Educative guesswork and reporting do not equal access to McCain's brain. Gov. Crist may well wind up on Sen. McCain's short list, but my sense, at the moment, is that while McCain likes and appreciates Crist, he does not believe that Crist has enough experience to be vice president."

Race too close for Obama to give in on FL

Here's a simple, logical way to give Florida a voice in the Democratic presidential nomination: Barack Obama could join Hillary Rodham Clinton in calling for their national party to count the 1.75-million Democratic votes in Florida's disqualified Jan. 29 primary. Clinton would net 38 pledged delegates, but Obama would still maintain a solid overall lead. The Democratic frontrunner would put behind him a damaging issue in a critical swing state, take a line of attack away from Clinton and bolster his image as a politician inclined to take the high ground.

Why Obama won't do that — because it could cost him the nomination — underscores how volatile the marathon Democratic race remains and how resolving Florida's Democratic delegate debacle remains a major challenge. And it's not just Obama. Clinton, by many accounts, could be better off leaving Florida unresolved than agreeing to any compromise. More here.

Is Obama blocking a delegate deal or Clinton?

Frankly we can't really tell because it's often tough to tell who speaks for whom. Officially the Clinton camp position is "count every vote in FL," and officially the Obama camp position is, "We'll talk, but a fair solution would be divide the delegates evenly."

Meanwhile, Clinton supporters like Bill Nelson say the DNC should divide the Florida delegation in half - net Clinton 19 delegates - while prominent Obama supporters in Florida are talking about a deal that might perhaps net Clinton 6 or 13 delegates. Except they say the Clinton campaign won't budge from fully counting and seating the delegation based on Jan. 29, to net 38.

Chairman Dean I know has asked both sides to come together and we've said, "Where and when,' " said U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor of Tampa, an Obama backer. "And the next thing I hear (from the Clinton campaign) is, "We're not interested.' "

Jim Greer welcomes Michelle Obama

In honor of her fundraising jaunt through Florida, the RPOF chairman weighs in: "“Throughout his campaign, Barack Obama has completely isolated himself from the people of Florida, failing to meet with Floridians face to face for a substantive discussion of critical issues as we head into the Presidential Election this fall. 

“I understand that Senator Obama may finally grace the state of Florida with his presence in the coming weeks.  However, Florida Democrats should have some serious questions for him when he gets here—like how he can stomach using Florida as an ATM, while failing to take a stand for the inclusion of the votes of 1.7 million Floridians in the selection of the Democrat nominee for President.

Bill Nelson could boost Crist's VP prospects

Well, that's the theory from former Republican U.S. Rep. John LeBoutillier: "...(John McCain) needs to wait to see what the Democratic ticket looks like first because that ticket will signal their electoral strategy. For example, if Obama wins the nomination and picks Bill Richardson, then we know he is going for the Southwest region - New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado - full of Hispanic voters - plus McCain’s own Arizona and California (strongly Democrat anyway).

"Or Obama may go for Florida Senator Bill Nelson and try to take the Sunshine State out of the GOP column. In that case McCain might take Florida’s popular new governor, Charlie Christ (sic), who helped propel McCain to victory in January in the GOP primary there. That would make Florida the key to the whole general election race.

"So, until the Democrats pick both their nominee and ticket - don’t forget that as the ‘out’ party they go first - McCain should wait to make his decision."

Unenthusiastic about Clinton, Obama

For all the talk of hyper-energized Democrats raising big money, voting in huge numbers and swelling voter registration rolls, Buzz is struck by how often we talk to Democrats unenthusiastic about both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. That's especially true in north Florida, where huge Republican margins can snuff any Democrats' chances statewide.

The latest example? Taylor County Commissioner Rudy Parker, one of Florida's would-be superdelegates, who voted for John Edwards in the primary and said he hears little excitement about the Democratic choices in his neck of the woods. Asked if he would feel compelled to vote for whover has the most popular votes and pledged delegates, Parker said not necessarily. He'd have to factor in a host of factors and mostly consider who's the strongest candidate, a question he can't yet answer.

"In the end, I want to be for the one that's got the best chance of winning. I'm afraid we're going to do what we always do and nominate someone who can't win,'' Parker said.

Obama returning to Florida

Barack Obama hasn't set foot in Florida since November, and he hasn't done anything besides private money-raising in the state since August. So when the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination finally returns to Florida, look for him to try to make a splash and show some love to America's biggest battleground state.

Local Obama supporters expect he will be in Tampa on or about May 9, though Frank Sanchez, Tampa Bay's top Obamaniac, said details are still being ironed out and it's uncertain whether the Illinois senator will do any public event in Tampa Bay. Orlando and/or Jacksonville could also be on Obama's May itinerary, but with little organization in Florida, the campaign's ability to stage major public events is crimped.

Dems elect delegates

For folks who don't yet have any say in their presidential nominee, it was a remarkably upbeat group of Democrats who met at Gray Robinson in Orlando today to elect 27 party leader and elected official delegates.Hamilton County Democratic Party Chair Rhett Bullard received the most votes, surely because he distributed cookies and candy to everyone with a vote. The elected delegates - none recognized by the DNC at this point - are listed below.

Michelle Obama coming to Tally to raise money

Michelle Obama will be in Tallahassee next Wednesday to raise money for her husband's presidential campaign. The event will be at the Moon from 9 to 10:30 a.m. Tickets are $125 for balcony seating and $250 for orchestra seating.

Click here for a story about Barack Obama's visit to Tallahassee -- pre campaign ban -- in August.

Q poll: Clinton and McCain too close to call

Hillary Clinton and John McCain are neck-and-neck in Florida, but McCain beats Barack Obama, a new Quinnipiac poll shows.

In a general election match-up, McCain trails Clinton 44 – 42, too close to call, but handily defeats Obama 46 – 37 percent.

"The difference between Clinton and Obama in Florida is the white vote,” said, Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "She gets 38 percent to 50 percent for McCain, but Obama loses to the Arizona senator 54 – 27 among white voters.  If Obama does get the nomination, how he fares with whites will be crucial to his chances."

A GOP voice for counting FL's votes

Interesting op-ed by a Republican economist: "...The first question is whether Florida and Michigan voters acted like these primaries mattered, even though they knew the delegates they chose were not recognized by the national party. This can be discerned from turnout, and in the case of Florida the answer is yes."

""Discussion among Democrats on how to deal with Florida and Michigan centers on three options. The first is not to seat them at all. Legally appropriate, but it would doubtless hurt the Democrats in both states in November... The second option would be to seat delegations that were evenly split between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama. This would make the votes of 2.3 million Democrats irrelevant, while creating artificial representation for the states… The third option would be to let the early primary votes stand, and select delegates according to the outcome. On a statistical basis, this is clearly the right result for Florida…"

Obama should pick Bill Nelson as VP

So says some guy in Massachusetts: "...Nelson has shown his electoral prowess in Florida, having been re-elected in 2006 with 60 percent of the vote. In addition, he won five terms in the U.S. House of Representatives from a district that includes Brevard County, not known as a citadel of liberalism, and where President Bush garnered 57 percent of the vote in 2004..."

Dean: FL and MI will be seated

AP: "...Dean also said the Michigan and Florida delegates will be seated at the convention. But he won't force a resolution because he said there's nothing the Obama and Clinton campaigns can support at this point.  You bring both sides together and say, 'Don't you think it's time that the two campaigns made a deal on how we're going to do this?'" Dean said. "Let me just say that the campaigns believe that kind of a deal is premature right now."

UPDATE: But on MSNBC Dean implied Florida and Michigan would likely remain unresolved until later in the summer after superdelegates crown a nominee: "I'd like to see the superdelegates make their wishes known early on an individual basis. I don't think we can have a convention of superdelegates, but I do think it's a good idea to have the superdelegates -- they're going to have to decide by August, and they'll do their party and their country a service by deciding
publicly beforehand. And then we'll know who the nominee is and then we'll be able to deal with the Florida and Michigan problem."

2 ways to solve FL Dem debacle

David Broder's column today includes one proposal from former Poynter Institute chief Jim Naughton and U.S. News alum John Mashek: "Because Florida and Michigan both knowingly violated the party rules, they must be punished by having the size of their delegations cut in half. But he would let the 183 remaining delegates chosen in the disputed primaries take their seats and vote on the platform or almost any other issue -- except those that impact directly on the presidential nomination."

Broder's own idea: "When the Florida and Michigan delegates arrive in Denver, they should present their credentials to the convention and, assuming Obama leads in the results from the other primaries and caucuses, prepare to be turned down. Then they walk out, "rump" in a nearby hall and do their business, including casting mock votes for president. "

Sanchez's national leadership post w/Obama

Frank Sanchez, the Tampa businessman, former mayoral candidate and former Clinton administration official, has been tapped to be Barack Obama's national chairman for Latino and Hispanic fundraising.

"I am proud to have the support of such an influential pioneer in the Latino community," Senator Obama said. "Frank will play a key role in reaching out to Latinos about our campaign’s vision to unite our country and expand our growing enthusiasm in the Latino community."

Obama camp talks to Thurman

The Hillary Clinton campaign has yet to express any interest in negotiating a solution to Florida's delegate mess, but a couple key Barack Obama staffers - delegate operations director Jeff Berman and political director Matt Nugen called state Democratic chairwoman Karen Thurman to talk about possible ways to give Florida a voice in the nomination.

"We're just looking for solutions," said Obama spokesman Bill Burton.

Sink, Korge disagree with Pelosi

CFO Alex Sink - who hopes to be tapped as a unpledged delegate at the convention - has been pretty quiet on this FL Democratic delegate mess. So Buzz asked whether she thinks uncommited superdelegates ultimately have an obligation to back whoever is leading in pledged delegates and popular votes. Nope. "The rules are the rules,'' said Sink, who is officially neutral though husband Bill McBride is backing Clinton.

Meanwhile, TPM has Chris Korge of Miami among 20 top Clinton fundraisers chastising Speaker Nancy Pelosi for suggesting the supers must support the pledged delegate leader.

Obama pastor event in Tampa canceled

TEMPLE TERRACE -- Appearances this week by the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr. at the Bible-Based Fellowship Church of Temple Terrace have been canceled, the church's pastor said today.

The Rev. Earl Mason said the three-night revival featuring Wright was turning into an "event" and media circus, rather than the celebration of the church's 10th anniversary that it was intended to be, so Mason asked him to stay in Chicago. Wright, the former pastor of presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, has drawn national attention in recent weeks over inflammatory remarks he made from the pulpit, which Obama has disavowed. This week's revival was to have been his first public appearance since the controversy erupted. More here.

Michelle Obama returning to FL

The Mrs. will be raising coin in Tallahassee, Broward and Miami April 9.

Matalin in Tampa

"Every piece of conventional wisdom was wrong," Republican political strategist Mary Matalin says of the current U.S. presidential campaign. "There is no template for this kind of cycle. This is a wide-open race ... and it's a wonderful thing." Speaking at the Girl Scouts of West Central Florida annual Women of Distinction luncheon in Tampa today , she said every candidate bout the challengedfailures of every candidate in the race.

John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, "failed first," she said, "and was able to regroup. He's the Mick Jagger of this. You don't always get what you want, but sometimes you get what you need."

---Mary Jane Park

Mahoney may skip Democratic convention

"I have better things to do in my district" than attend what recently has become a glorified pep rally, Democratic U.S. Rep. Tim Mahoney told the Treasure Coast papers. The uncommitted potential superdelegate also recounted how Hillary Clinton personally called his daughter to encourage her interest in horses and suggested Al Gore could even emerge as the ultimate nominee.

The Audacity of Nope

"When it comes to voting, Sen. Obama is turning the audacity of hope into the audacity of nope,'' Hillary Clinton campaign spokesman Phil Singer said on a campaign conference call.

Adviser Harold Ickes, who was among the DNC rules committee members to strip all of Florida's delegates away, continues to insist that Florida can hold a do-over primary, though almost no one in Florida agrees. The campaign brushed off any talk of negotiating a compromise to ensure Florida and Michigan get delegates seated.

"We don't see any need for that,'' Singer said of negotiating. "There's plenty of time to have re-dos."

Is Hillary the disenfranchiser?

"This new strategy of denying and disempowering and disenfranchising the voters in Florida and Michigan is, I believe, a terrible mistake,'' Bill Clinton said in Indiana on Monday. "Hillary believes their votes should be counted."

Nice try. But with every passing day, Sen. Clinton looks like the one most likely to disenfranchise Florida Democrats, not Sen. Obama. Column here.

Some key Clinton strategists think the best opportunity to resolve the Florida problem is a little-noticed appeal of that punishment by Jon Ausman, an uncommitted DNC member from Tallahassee. The DNC's rules and bylaws committee is likely to take up Ausman's challenge in a few weeks and could wind up with a politically sticky verdict: Elite party officials and elected officials get a voice in the nomination, but not delegates representing everyday Democrats. Nice message that would send.

Obama campaign calls for negotations on FL, MI

Barack Obama Campaign manager David