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...Here's how the 210 delegates would be divvied up based on 1/29, as calculated FL DNC member Jon Ausman: Clinton: 105; Obama: 67; Edwards: 13; unpledged: 3; Super delegates: 22.
And if they don't get restored, and we face a brokered convention? Florida will once again be in the center of an electoral mess. Stay tuned.
Pensacola trial lawyer Fred Levin, a bigtime John Edwards fundraiser, can't muster much enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama or any Republican. "I would hope that after Super Tuesday Michael Bloomberg would see that he is probably the best answer for this country,'' said Levin "He would have no obligation to anyone and the economy is the issue."
There's a lot of outreach and courting going on across Florida to former Edwards and Rudy Giuliani fundraisers. Edwards' former Fl chairman Mitchell Berger is with Obama, while we've yet to hear of a significant former Rudy fundraiser going with Mitt. Among those jumping to McCain: Giuliani Florida finance chairman Joe Fogg, Harry and Dan Sargent, Sarasota chiropractor Gary Kompothecras. Tampa developer Al Austin said he hasn't made up his mind, but Buzz recalls how Mrs. Austin always wanted him to go with McCain.
Kirk Wagar's an enterprising guy. The Miami lawyer and Barack Obama fundraiser went to Puerto Rico on Saturday for a trial lawyers convention and pitched his candidate to John Edwards supporters.
Despite finishing third in South Carolina, Edwards says he'll push on to Feb. 5. But smelling an imminent departure from the race, Wagar was trying to attract a few Edwards money men to his own candidate.
"I'm making sure they know there's a place for them in our campaign," Wagar told the Buzz by phone.
Wagar acknowledged Obama's S.C. rout may have little effect on Florida, where Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a commanding lead. For that, he blames the boycott on campaigning in Florida, suggesting Clinton led the charge because she was already ahead.
"The problem is these people do not know who Barack Obama is and what he stands for," Wagar said. "The reality is this campaign was frozen in August. We haven't been able to communicate with voters since then and we stand by our word. Trust me, there's no one more frustrated than me. I think we could have won Florida. It would have been a stake in the heart of any other campaign."
InsiderAdvantage 1/7 poll for Southern Political Report: Giuliani 24%; Huckabee 19% McCain 19%; Romney 13%; Thompson 8%; Paul 5%; Hunter 1%; No Opinion: 11%.
Clinton 40%; Obama: 32%; Edwards 9%; Richardson 6%; Kucinich 2%; No Opinion: 10%
Jan. 5-7 Datamar robo poll: Mike Huckabee 24%; Mitt Romney 20%; John McCain 18%; Rudy Giuliani 16%.
Hillary Clinton 40%; Barack Obama 28%; John Edwards 19%.
The Buzz caught up with uber Democratic fundraiser Mitchell Berger of Fort Lauderdale, who's in Iowa working the phones and knocking on doors to reel in undecided voters for John Edwards in Indianola and Winterset, south of Des Moines. "There's a lot of support for John here, and there's some support for Barack Obama and for Bill Richardson. ... It doesn't seem to be breaking at all for Hillary," Berger said.
We wondered how Al Gore's buddy felt about John Edwards picking up the endorsement of Ralph Nader, who many blame for Democrats not winning the White House in '04. "I'd rather have Ralph in the system than out of it," he said.
"Those first couple races are going to dictate what happens next," said Democratic pollster Dave Beattie. "If Hillary wins Iowa it's much more difficult for Obama or Edwards to close the gap." But the Republican race is so full of viable candidates that even talk of the primary stretching into a brokered convention no longer seems entirely far-fetched.
"Everybody's goal, on both sides, is to be one of the two or three people still viable on Feb. 5," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "If there are three viable Republicans still standing on the morning of Feb. 5, you have the possibility this could go on a long, long time, possibly to the convention."
The scenarios are countless, but we've narrowed it to seven. See here.
From Datamar, 12/9-13 (656 Rs): Huckabee 25%, Giuliani 21%, Romney 19%; McCain 10%; Thompson 9%; Paul 5%. Among 600 Ds: Clinton 44%; Obama 20%; Edwards 14% Richardson 4%.
We don't vouch for all these polls, we just blog em
For Hillary Clinton sweating it out in Iowa, Florida can't come soon enough. Here's the latest from Quinnipiac's Swing State Polling (11/26-12/3):
"Clinton tops Obama 53 – 17 percent among all Democrats and 56 – 13 percent among women. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gets 7 percent. Giuliani gets 30 percent of Republican votes, with 12 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 11 percent for Huckabee, 10 percent for former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and 9 percent for Arizona Sen. John McCain."
"Clinton tops Giuliani 48 – 41 percent; Giuliani led 46 – 43 percent October 25....Clinton tops McCain 47 – 40 percent, Thompson 52 – 36 percent, Romney 50 – 36 percent and Huckabee 50 – 35 percent; Giuliani bests Obama 45 – 37 percent and Edwards 43 – 39 percent."
Edwards has stumped in Iowa more than any other candidate, deploying a political team with loads of experience in the state he's avoided - Florida. Several who worked on Jim Davis' unsuccessful campaign last year for Florida governor are now in Iowa, including pollster Harrison Hickman and regional field director Pam Danielson. His Iowa field director is Jennifer O'Malley, who was Davis' campaign manager.
O'Malley helped run Edwards' operation here in 2004 when he came out of nowhere to place second in the caucus, making him an unexpected contender for the nomination. "She's relentless and she knows Iowa," Davis said. "She's terrific at organizing volunteers and building grass roots. In a state like Iowa, that's important. Florida is more of a TV state where field operations don't matter as much."
Story here.
New Mason-Dixon numbers for Florida show Rudy Giuliani rising at the expense of Fred Thompson, who's dropped 11 points since Mason-Dixon's Sept. Florida poll. Weirdly, Barack Obama's unfavorables (54 favorable/26 unfavorable) are worse than than Hillary Clinton's (62/23). In a two-person Florida primary, Hillary beats Obama 54% to 34%. The Sentinel has more here.
GOP PRIMARY VOTE 11/07 9/07
Giuliani 36% 24%
Romney 15% 13%
Thompson 12% 23%
McCain 10% 9%
Huckabee 8% 6%
Others 4% 3%
Undecided 15% 22%
---------
State men women
Hillary Clinton 42% 36% 46%
Barack Obama 15% 14% 16%
John Edwards 12% 14% 11%
Bill Richardson 7% 10% 5%
Joe Biden 3% 3% 3%
Chris Dodd 1% 2% -
Dennis Kucinich 1% 1% 1%
Mike Gravel - - -
Undecided (NOT READ) 19% 20% 18%
DES MOINES, Iowa - Can any Democrat beat Hillary Rodham Clinton? Absolutely. And if it happens, the beginning of the end will surely occur amid the snow-covered cornfields and silo-dotted town centers of Iowa. Forget Sen. Clinton's more than 20 point lead in Florida and nationally. Iowa is what matters most in the Democratic race at this point, and Iowa is looking like a dogfight.
Whenever Obama's Florida chairman, Kirk Wagar, encounters a skeptic about his candidate's prospects, Wagar invokes Iowa. And Kerry. "John Kerry was at 4 percent in the national polls before Iowa, and Al Sharpton was at 5 percent," said Wagar, a Miami lawyer and former Kerry supporter. "But we knew from October on that people in Iowa were hearing John's message." Story here.
Get ready Florida for another nail biter presidential election. A new St. Petersburg /Bay News 9 poll shows America's biggest battleground state is up for grabs by either Republicans or Democrats, and that neither of the front-runners for their party nominations, Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Rodham Clinton, has Florida locked up yet.
"Florida is poised to be both a bellwether and maybe even a shocker and a bit of a surprise for presidential politics in 2008," said pollster Kellyanne Conway.
Former New York Mayor Giuliani beat Clinton by 5 percentage points among the 800 registered voters surveyed Nov. 4-7, and Arizona Sen. John McCain was neck-and-neck with Clinton in head-to-head matchups. But independent voters, strongly disenchanted with the Iraq war, President Bush and the direction of the country, make Florida's 27 electoral votes ripe for Democrats to pluck. Florida Democrats overwhelmingly favor Clinton, who had 48 percent support compared to 24 percent for Barack Obama. Eight percent favored former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. Clinton's strongest area was Tampa Bay, where she had 60 percent support among Democrats but still lagged Giuliani and McCain in Tampa Bay.
Among Republican voters, former Tennessee Sen. and Law & Order star Fred Thompson is proving to be nowhere near the force many had expected when he entered the race in September. The poll showed him in fifth place with 8 percent support, behind former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, with 9 percent, McCain with 12 percent, Mitt Romney with 19 percent and Giuliani with 36 percent in the state he declares a must-win. (Read the story here.)
Could John Edwards be the real competition for Hillary Clinton? That's what an 
unofficial and unauthorized straw poll by taken at the Florida Democratic convention last weekend seems to suggest. Marvin and Shelley Quittner received back 703 ballots(at least 10 more are outstanding), which asked people to pick their top choice as well as their top four choices.
For the top choice question, only three candidates got at least 15% of the vote, the threshold for winning delegates: Hillary Clinton, with 296, Barack Obama with 110, and John Edwards with 108. That was followed by Al Gore with 82; Dennis Kucinich with 45; Bill Richardson with 31; Joe Biden with 20; Mike Gravel with 7 and Chris Dodd with 2.
Then Quittner, a retired lawyer from Plantation, eliminated Gore and assigned the Gore voters secondary choices to one of the candidates showing 15 percent viability. The result? Clinton 323(46%); Edwards 140 (20%); and Obama (17%). Finally, he assigned the top choices of all the also-rans to Clinton, Edwards and Obama: Clinton 359 (51%); Edwards (25%); Obama (20%).
Continue reading "Secret straw poll: Clinton; Edwards stongest in FL" »
From a 10/17-19 Florida Chamber poll by Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research: Crist has 79% approval rating even as 51% say Florida is heading in the wrong direction; 39% say property taxes are most important issue, followed health care 18%; property insurance 16% and education 8%.
"Property taxes have made a significant increase in voter consciousness from 33 percent of voters to 39 percent," said Marian Johnson, political veteran and vice-president of political strategy for the Florida Chamber. "This sudden 6 percent increase underscores the recent increase in voter frustration with the property tax issue."
On the presidential front, Mitt's now no. 2: Guiliani – 33%; Romney – 17%; Thompson – 13%; McCain – 9%; No opinion – 17%. Among Ds: Clinton – 53%; Obama – 19%; Edwards – 9%; In the general election: Hilliary Clinton – 37%, Rudy Guiliani – 34%, Undecided – 29%. She beats Thompson 39-31 and Romney 39-32.
The newest poll from Quinnipiac University: "Giuliani still dominates a Republican primary, with 30 percent, but Arizona Sen. John McCain has bounced back to 14 percent, tying former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has 12 percent. This compares to an October 10 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University which showed Giuliani with 27 percent, Thompson with 19 percent, Romney with 17 percent and McCain trailing with 8 percent."
"Sen. Clinton leads a Democratic primary with 43 percent, down from 51 percent October 10, while Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's 18 percent is little changed. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gets 12 percent. "
Among Florida's independent voters, 22 percent say they are less likely to vote for a Democrat for president because of the Democratic National Committee's decision to strip the state of its national convention delegates because of Florida's early presidential primary.
Southeast Florida is the deepest pool for Florida campaign cash, and Clinton raised $3.8-million from that area, compared to $1.45-million for Obama, who raised more than Clinton in Tampa-St. Petersburg $485,000 to $305,000, Jacksonville and Tallahassee. Among the Republicans, Giuliani topped Romney in Tampa-St. Petersburg ($421,000 to $366,00), southeast and southwest Florida, while Romney beat the field in Orlando and Jacksonville. McCain raised the most in Tallahassee.
Full story here.
"LANSING, Mich. (AP) -- Four Democratic candidates have withdrawn from Michigan's Jan. 15 presidential primary, leaving what amounts to a beauty contest for front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton and a handful of lesser-knowns.
"Barack Obama, John Edwards and Bill Richardson filed paperwork Tuesday, the deadline to withdraw from the ballot, said Kelly Chesney, spokeswoman for the Michigan Secretary of State's office. A fourth candidate, Joe Biden, said in a statement that he was bypassing Michigan's primary." More here. Chris Dodd also is bypassing Michigan's primary, but not withdrawing his name from the ballot.
In Florida the situation is a bit different from Michigan. Legislative Democratic leaders Steve Geller and Dan Gelber, and state Democratic Chair Karen Thurman, are the deciders for putting the candidates' names on the 1/29 ballot. They're submitting the names for the ballot later this month. The candidates can choose to have their names removed from the Fl primary ballot, but, unlike Michigan, they would have to submit an affadavit stating they are no longer running for president.
"If they wish to take their names off the ballot it's fine with me. The actions that I have seen from the DNC indicate they don't care if they carry Florida in the general election anyway,'' said Geller, who expects to file a lawsuit in Broward circuit court next week against the the four states who demanded a pledge from the candidates.
ST. PETERSBURG - The presidential campaign trail can be a confusing place these days, especially in Florida, where Democratic candidates have pledged not to campaign for votes, only cash.
So when Elizabeth Edwards, spoke at a luncheon in St. Petersburg about breast cancer today, it provided local voters a rare peek at the spouse of one Democratic front runner, her husband John Edwards.
But while the event was open to the public for $100 a pop, reporters were not invited.
"Two or three weeks ago we were notified that Mrs. Edwards wanted to close the event to the press,'' said Robert Sherman, executive director of the St. Anthony’s Health Care Foundation, which sponsored the luncheon to raise money for the new center. "We signed a contract where she reserved that right. I’m in a Catch-22 here. I have to respect the contract.''
Edwards signed more than 100 books today before giving a short speech about the importance of connecting with others in her fight with cancer.
A St. Petersburg Times reporter attended after paying the $100 cover that paid for a chicken ceasar salad lunch. Edwards was paid $25,000 to appear.
Continue reading "Liz Edwards tiptoes around Fl. campaign ban" »
Weird new poll results from American Research Group: Rudy Giuliani 26%, John McCain 18%, Fred Thompson 16%, Mitt Romney 14%. Since July, ARG finds, Thompson is down 11 points among likely Republican voters in Florida, Giuliani down 7 points and McCain up 11.
Among likely Democratic voters: Hillary Clinton 47%, Barack Obama 19% (down 6); John Edwards 9%.
On Oct. 4, the breast cancer survivor and wife of presidential candidate John Edwards will headline a St. Anthony’s Health Care Foundation luncheon supporting breast care services.
UPDATE: Clinton joins the boycott: "We believe Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina play a unique and special role in the nominating process,'' said campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle. "And we believe the DNC’s rules and its calendar provide the necessary structure to respect and honor that role."
****
Democratic presidential candidates to Florida: Drop dead. John Edwards and Barack Obama sign the pledge promising not to campaign in Florida. As it now stands, every Democrat except Kucinich and Gravel have decided to let Republicans have Florida to themselves for the next few months. Raise your hand if you think these Democrats will decline to raise money in Florida too.
It's no surprise that John Edwards, with his limited campaign account, is putting much more emphasis on Iowa and other early states than Florida, but his campaign manager, former Michigan Rep. David Bonior in the Boston Globe gave the clearest statement from any campaign that Florda - and even Bonior's own Michigan - will get limited attention from the Edwards camp.
"I do believe there is a role for a larger state in this process whether that be Florida or wherever," Bonior said in an interview. "But this campaign is focused on the four early states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina because that is where the issues matter most."
Above is Edwards in Iowa with what appears to be, well, an SUV.
But here's John Edwards campaigning in Orlando Tuesday, per the AP: ''I think Americans are actually willing to sacrifice,'' Edwards said during a forum held by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers. ''One of the things they should be asked to do is drive more fuel efficient vehicles.'' The former North Carolina senator was asked specifically if he would tell them to give up their SUVS, he said, ''Yes.''
Oh yeah, and here's some of the transportation at the Edwards manse in Chapel Hill.
Some Florida Democrats may know or recall Michael Duga, a former Max Cleland aide and (at least he said) onetime aide to the Clintons and ally of Scott Maddox. Well check this weirdness from the Boston Globe:
"A 31-year-old Florida man was arrested over the weekend in connection with impersonating an aide to Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards at a Martha's Vineyard fund-raiser, police said. ... Duga, who was arraigned yesterday in Edgartown District Court on charges including marijuana possession and breaking into the Menemsha Coast Guard station, allegedly arrived at the Edwards fund-raiser Friday night in a stolen Chevrolet Suburban.
"Two campaign aides told police that they saw Duga enter the same vehicle as Edwards and his wife when they left the event for Martha's Vineyard Airport. It was not clear yesterday whether Duga actually accompanied Edwards to the airport."
On the heels of Barack Obama's latest Florida adventure, Hillary heads to Disney Monday to court the International Association of Machinists, and John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich (who will also be in Miami 9/8) will be there Tuesday. Meanwhile Bill Richardson today applauded the DNC smackdown of Florida's 1/29 primary:
"I understand that yesterday's decision was not an easy one, but it was it done in a democratic, orderly, and fair manner," said Gov. Richardson. "I am confident that over the next thirty days a final resolution will be agreed upon that will guarantee that everyone's vote can count. Ultimately, I believe it is important that the Democratic nominating calendar be confirmed sooner rather than later. As Democrats it is important for us to use our voices to discuss the very serious issues facing our country and our differences with the Republicans. Over the next 6 months, I am looking forward to taking my case of experience plus change directly to the voters."
AARP today releases a poll of 501 Florida members who may vote in the Democratic primary and 503 in the Republican primary, showing that seven in 10 are following the presidential primary at least somewhat closely. Iraq and financial security are top issues, but large proportions of AARP voters don't know much about the candidates stances on issues like Social Security, saving incentives, or pension protection.
"The race for the White House is up for grabs in Florida, according to this poll," said Jeff Johnson, manager of the Divided We Fail initiative for the Sunshine State. "This election may turn on whether candidates can connect with Floridians 50+ on real-world issues that deeply affect their lives - having affordable, accessible, quality health care, and getting the tools they need to achieve lifetime financial security."
Asked to rate candidates on how well they have addressed financial security, 35% of Republican AARP members said Rudy Giuliani had "very or somewhat well," 31% said John McCain; 28 said Mitt Romney, 17 percent said Fred Thompson, and 9% Mike Huckabee. Those who rated "very or somewhat well" in addessing access to health care: 47 % Giuliani; 37% McCain; 35% Romney; 22% Thompson; Huckabee 12%.
Among Democrats rated well on addressing financial security: Hillary Clinton 56%; John Edwards 42%; Barack Obama 38%; Joe Biden 23%; Bill Richardson 18%; Chris Dodd 14%; Dennis Kucinich 10%. On addressing health care: Clinton 76%; Edwards 56%; Obama 49%; Biden 27%; Richardson 23%; Kucinich 15%; Dodd 14%;
...to Atlantic Beach near Jacksonville 9/18 for a book-signing Bookmark.
He'll do one of his "Small Change for Big Change" grassroots fundraisers at 8 p.m. Tuesday -- $15 a head at TGI Friday's Front Row Sports Grill on I-Drive
Strategic Vision's 8/10-12 poll of 1,200 likely Florida voters (moe +- 3). R's: Rudy Giuliani 34%; Fred Thompson 18%; undecided 16 % Mitt Romney 10%; John McCain 8%; Newt Gingrich 3%; Tom Tancredo 3%; Mike Huckabee 3%. D's: Hillary Clinton 40%; Barack Obama 20%; John Edwards 16%; Undecided 10%; Bill Richardson 9%; Joseph Biden 3%; Christopher Dodd 1%; Dennis Kucinich 1%.
71% approve of Charlie Crist's overall performance, 37 percent approve of President Bush's and 20 percent approve of Congress's job performance. 53 percent approve of Bill Nelson and 43 percent Mel Martinez
A Quinnipiac University poll released today found that U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton edges out Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, 46 to 44 in Florida, assuming those are the two candidates in the general.
In a Democratic primary match up, Clinton gets 43 percent, followed by 13 percent for Obama, 11 percent for Gore and 8 percent for John Edwards.
"Sen. Clinton is inching ahead. Not only does she lead by a nose in two of the most important swing states in the Electoral College, but she is turning around independent and Republican voters who previously viewed her negatively,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Continue reading "Poll: Clinton Edges out Giuliani in Florida" »
Mason-Dixon shows Rudy Giuliani with 21 percent support among likely Florida GOP voters, and Fred Thompson with 18 percent, within the poll's 5-point margin for error. John McCain was at 11 percent and Mitt Romney at 7 percent. Among the Democrats, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 31-17 percent lead with John Edwards trailing third at 12 percent.
See more here.
The joke in those small, early-voting states is that folks don't make up their minds until they've seen each of the candidates in person four or five times. In Florida? Your chances, whether a voter or a reporter, of actually talking to one of the leading candidates who are zipping in and out of Florida are next to nil.
Indeed, there are plenty of hints that some of the Democrats are preparing to blow off Florida's primary. Consider that Democrat Barack Obama has not yet answered a single question from a Floridian who has not written a big check to attend a private reception. Nor has Democrat John Edwards.Clinton and the leading Republican candidates have been more accessible, but - other than Mitt Romney, who has welcomed media interviews to improve his negligible name recognition - not much better.
More here.
HOLLYWOOD – Hillary Clinton didn’t attend the national Young Republicans convention, but her name sure evoked a good bit of applause.
That is, when Mitt Romney bashed her economic plans and ideas on healthcare.
The former Massachusetts governor used strong language too: "Government-managed universal healthcare. The last thing America needs is socialized medicine –- Hillary-care!"
Also: "She couldn’t be elected the president of France today."
Romney likewise took jabs at U.S. Sen. Barack Obama and former U.S. John Edwards, but nothing like the blows to Clinton. Of course, the speech was like red meat in a room of 600 hungry conservatives.
--John Frank, Times staff writer
TAMPA - Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards wasted no time Friday making hay of his wife's fight with conservative commentator Ann Coulter. "We cannot stand quietly by and watch this kind of name-calling and hate language, " he said at a fund raiser at Lowry Park Zoo. More here.
Said the RNC's Amber Wilkerson: "While John Edwards is collecting "small change" in Tampa tonight, his donors should be comforted that for every 25 tickets they purchase Edwards will almost be able to cover the cost of another $400 haircut."
The latest Quinnipiac poll of swing states shows Hillary Clinton cruising in Florida and Giuliani's edge shrinking. Still, Giuliani is the only Republican who beats every Democrat in hypothetical match-ups in FL.
Ds: Clinton 38, Obama 15, Gore 13, Edwards 8, Dk 15.
Rs: Giuliani 27, F Thompson 21, McCain 13, Gingrich 7, Romney 6, DK 18.
“If Sen. Obama is catching Clinton in the primary contest, there is no evidence of it in Florida and Ohio. But in November, the large number of non-Democrats who view her negatively keeps a cap on her showing against Republicans,” said pollster Peter Brown. “Giuliani’s lead among Republicans continues to dwindle. Perhaps his much-discussed difference with the GOP mainstream over issues such as abortion, gay rights and gun control are beginning to take its toll.
He's hosting house parties across the country next Wednesday night. But as we checked here for a party near us in Tampa Bay were were struck by how thin his grass roots support appears in some areas of the state.
Florida's early presidential primary is clearly good news for Hillary Clinton. For John Edwards, lacking resources and focusing on the earliest states, it's a challenge. More here.
From a 6/6-7 Florida Insider/InsiderAdvantage poll of 500 registered FL Republicans and 500 registered Democrats:
Rs: Rudy Giuliani (31%);Fred Thompson (21%); Mitt Romney (17%);John McCain (12%);Duncan Hunter (3%);Ron Paul (1%);Sam Brownback (1%);Mike Huckabee (0%);Jim Gilmore (0%);No opinion (14%)
Ds:Hillary Clinton (41%);Barack Obama (35%);John Edwards (14%);Bill Richardson (5%);Joe Biden (1%);Chris Dodd (1%);No opinion (3%)
We caught John Edwards in Miami last night, where his $15-a-head fundraiser/rally drew nearly 300 people. By comparison Barack Obama's $25-a-head fundraiser in Tampa earlier this year drew about 2,000.
Florida could be a challenge against better-funded rivals, but while blowing past reporters on his way out last night Edwards implied potential DNC penalties would not keep him from campaigning in Florida : "I'm going to compete everywhere in America."
Edwards will be in Tampa Bay June 29 for a fundraiser hosted by trial lawyers Steve Yerrid and Jim Wilkes.
Zogby International poll for South Florida media:
R's: Rudy Giuliani (nearly 31 percent) ; John McCain, (12 percent ), former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (12 percent) and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson (10 percent); unsure (22 percent).
D's: Hillary Clinton (22 percent); Barack Obama (16 percent); John Edwards (11 percent); unsure (22 percent).
More here.
Hard core Democratic activists are all over the Westin Diplomat in Hallandale Beach this weekend for the Jefferson-Jackson weekend. Who's sucking up to these activists? Joe Biden's sister, Valerie Biden Owens, as well as his campaign manager and former Florida somebody Luis Navarro. Hillary Clinton's deputy political director, Sean Johnson is here. So is John Edwards' political director David Medina and, senior campaign adviser Peter Hatch. Obama has passle of paid staffers here, including political director Matt Nugen, deputy political director Eureka Gilkey, and southern regional political person Erica Brooks. Zero presence from Bill Richardson campaign or any others.
The new Quinnipiac poll out today finds Fred Thompson in second place among Florida Republicans, and Hillary Clinton still sitting pretty:
Rudy Giuliani leads among Republican primary voters, with 31 percent, down from 38 percent on April 26. Thompson gets 14 percent, up from 5 percent April 26, while John McCain gets 10 percent, down from 15 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gets 8 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gets 7 percent....Among Democrats, Clinton gets 34 percent, with 16 percent for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 13 percent for former Vice President Al Gore and 11 percent for 2004 vice presidential candidate John Edwards.
"Mayor Giuliani is ahead, but his support is slipping and his new major challenger is not even in the race. Thompson, who deserves an Emmy for his performance as the dark horse, seems to be picking up many of those who are leaving Giuliani and McCain, whose support seems to be collapsing," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
At last night's Democratic debate in New Hampshire, former Sen. Bob Graham was cited by Sen. Barack Obama as having learned important details about Iraq from the National Intelligence Estimate. The classified version of the NIE has become an issue in the presidential campaign because most senators, including Sens. John Edwards, Chris Dodd and Hillary Clinton, have said they did not read it, although they say they were briefed on it or read a de-classified version.
Here's the exchange:
WOLF BLITZER: Senator Obama, you didn't think the war was the right thing to do, even though you weren't in the U.S. Senate. You didn't have access to any intelligence information at the time.
Do you think someone who authorized the use of force to go to war in Iraq should be president of the United States?
OBAMA: I don't think it's a disqualifier. I think that people were making their best judgments at the time.
I will say on the National Intelligence Estimate that Chairman Graham -- Bob Graham of Florida, who at the time was the head of the Intelligence Committee -- cited that specifically as one of the reasons that he voted against it.
So obviously there was some pertinent information there.
John Edwards returns to the cash machine, er Florida, tomorrow to raise coin. He'll be in Fort Lauderdale at a fundraiser hosted by, among others former state Sen. and A.G. candidate Skip Campbell, and Broward County Commissioner Ilene Lieberman.
So says a May 11-13 Strategic Vision poll of 1200 likely voters. In the presidential primary horse race:
R's: Giuliani 32%; 20%; Fred Thompson 10%; Gingrich 7%; Romney 5%; Brownback 3%; Tancredo 2%; Huckabee 2%; Paul 2%; Tommy Thompson 1%; Gilmore 1%; Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel 1%; Hunter 1%; 13% undecided.
D's: Clinton 37%; Obama 20%; Edwards 19%; Biden 5%; Richardson 4%; Dodd 2%; Kucinich 1%; 12% undecided
Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani are leading their closest presidential rivals 2-1 in Florida, the battleground state suddenly poised to have a major say in deciding the presidential nominees. More here.
But a new St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 poll shows that despite their big leads -- Clinton tops the Democratic field by 23 percentage points, and Giuliani leads the GOP slate by 14 -- the frontrunners have not secured Florida's support nearly nine months before the primaries. That's especially true for the GOP, where one in three Republicans is either undecided or supporting someone not yet in the race.
The survey found 29 percent of Florida Republican voters backing Giuliani, while John McCain and Mitt Romney were statistically tied at 15 percent and 14 percent respectively. Seventeen percent were undecided. Among Democratic voters polled, 42 percent supported Clinton, 19 percent backed Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 12 percent John Edwards and 17 percent were undecided.
Meanwhile, Iraq looms large, and Florida independents are strongly siding with Democrats over Republicans on the war.
From American Research Group May 4-8 poll of 600 likely Democratic primary voters and 600 likely Republican primary voters:
Rs: Rudy Giuliani 31%; John McCain 18%; Fred Thompson 13%; Mitt Romney 11%; Newt Gingrich 8%, undecided 13%.
D's: Hillary Clinton 45%; Barack Obama 17%; John Edwards 15%; Joe Biden 3%; Bill Richardson 3%; undecided 14%
Florida Democrats, including key presidential fundraisers in Florida who participated in a conference call with the DNC Friday, are getting increasingly anxious that Florida could prove less relevant, not more, with a Jan. 29 presidential primary. DNC rules say any candidate who campaigns in a state that breaks the DNC rules by scheduling a primary before Feb. 5 will forfeit all delegates from that state, and some Democrats fret that some candidates will opt to skip Florida's primary if no delegates are at stake.
"It makes no sense...Democrats are 100 percent shooting themselves in the foot,'' Mitchell Berger, a top fundraiser helping Edwards said of the early primary plan. "What it does is make Florida just a beauty contest because nobody will spend money here."
More on this is in comments.
