FL Poll: McCain beats Obama, not Clinton

4/30-5/1 robo poll of 623 registered Florida voters by War Room Logistics of Gainesville: John McCain 47%, Barack Obama 40% (independents - 45% McCain, 38 percent Obama); McCain 44%, Hillary Clinton 45% (independents 39 McCain, 39 Clinton).

52% said Gov. Charlie Crist is doing a good or excellent job, and 47 percent said fair or poor. 51% said the economy was the top issue, followed by the Iraq war at 15%.

Poll: McCain in trouble in FL

Start measuring those vice presidential mansion drapes, Charlie Crist. Quinnipiac University's latest swing state poll shows Hillary Clinton beating McCain in Florida 49 - 41 percent, while McCain gets 44 percent to Barack Obama's 43 percent (moe +/- 2.6). She's also handily beating McCain in PA and OH.

From the release: "Facing McCain in November, Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent among women, while he gets 45 percent of men to her 43 percent. They tie 45 - 45 percent among white voters, while she leads 80 - 11 percent among black voters. In an Obama-McCain matchup, men back McCain 46 - 42 percent, while women split, with 44 percent for Obama and 42 percent for McCain. The Republican leads among white voters 50 - 36 percent, while the Democrat leads among black voters 83 - 8 percent. "

FL poll: McCain crushes Obama, not Clinton

Rasmussen robo poll: McCain 53%, Obama 38%... McCain 44%, Clinton 45%.

Voters like revenue cap; Crist's approval down

Florida voters like the revenue cap and sales tax "swap" being considered by a powerful state commission, but little is known about the plans and support falls short of the 60 percent approval, according to a new statewide poll.

The poll, released this morning, also shows Gov. Charlie Crist's approval rating has dropped to its lowest point ever -- 59 percent. (He peaked at 73 percent last year.)

Even so, the ratings "remain the envy of most governors," says Peter Brown of Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The reason his numbers are lower is that they were so high to begin with and voter satisfaction with how things are going in Florida has plummeted."

The revenue cap is favored by 50 percent of voters, while 31 percent were opposed. Similar to a "taxpayer bill of rights" adopted in Colorado, it would cap state and local spending at inflation and population growth plus 1 percent. On Monday it faces a critical vote on the Taxation and Budget Reform Commission.

The people's VP? Not Charlie Crist

Gallup Poll asked 453 Republicans and Republican leaners to name who they would most like to see John McCain select as his running mate. Mike Huckabee topped the list, followed by Mitt Romney and Condoleezza Rice.

Gov. Charlie Crist registered, with 2 percent, but in the middle of the pack with Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani and Joe Lieberman. (About one in three Republicans could not think of anyone.)

Nearly everyone else on the list has a national profile, so the fact that Crist is showing up at all may be a sign of his perceived strength as a VP candidate.

Q poll: Clinton and McCain too close to call

Hillary Clinton and John McCain are neck-and-neck in Florida, but McCain beats Barack Obama, a new Quinnipiac poll shows.

In a general election match-up, McCain trails Clinton 44 – 42, too close to call, but handily defeats Obama 46 – 37 percent.

"The difference between Clinton and Obama in Florida is the white vote,” said, Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "She gets 38 percent to 50 percent for McCain, but Obama loses to the Arizona senator 54 – 27 among white voters.  If Obama does get the nomination, how he fares with whites will be crucial to his chances."

Poll: McCain beats Hillary and Barack in FL

But Clinton is stronger against McCain, according to the 3/15-26 robo poll by Public Policy Polling: McCain leads Clinton 47-43, and he leads Obama 51-39.

Disenfranchising Non-voters in FL

If Hillary Clinton got her way and Michigan and Florida had their rogue primaries counted, would voters still be disenfranchised. That's what Wharton professor Gregory P. Nini and journalist Glenn Hurowitz conclude in a study that concludes an additional 1.15 million Florida voters and 715,000 Michigan voters would have voted in January if they thought the results would matter.

The Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll of 600 frequent voting Democrats (including 17 percent who did not vote in the primary) found that only 15 percent said the Amendment 1 initiative was the main thing that interested them about the primary.

Times poll: Dems want primary results to count

Howard Dean and Barack Obama may insist Florida’s Democratic presidential primary was meaningless, but a new poll shows Florida Democrats aren’t buying it, and one in four may not back their party's nominee in November if Florida winds up with no voice in the nomination.

Not only do Florida Democrats say that the Democratic presidential contenders’ boycott of their primary had little effect, but an overwhelming plurality want the officially meaningless results to count, a new St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 poll finds.

A record 1.75-million Florida Democrats voted in the Jan. 29 primary, which Hillary Rodham Clinton won by 17 percentage points, but as punishment for holding the primary earlier than allowed by the national party, no delegates were at stake. Now, as a nomination stalemate looms, the candidates and state and national party leaders are struggling to figure out how and if America’s biggest swing state can have a voice in the Democratic nomination.

Poll: McCain beats Clinton and Obama in FL

  3/12 Rasmussen poll: McCain 47%, Obama 43%; McCain 47%, Clinton 40%.

"For Obama, this reflects a significant improvement compared to polling in February. For Clinton, little has changed. The top three issues in the state are the economy, the War in Iraq, and National Security. Forty-seven percent (47%) say the economy is most important, 17% name Iraq, and 11% National Security."

Poll: Dems could hand FL to GOP

A whopping 31% of Democrats polled 3/10 by  InsiderAdvantage for Florida Insider say they would be "less likely" to vote for the Democratic nominee if Florida's delegates aren't seated at the national convention.

“For John McCain to win Florida, it would probably take significantly fewer defections from the Democratic ranks than we see in this poll,” said Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage. “If as few as 5% of Florida Democrats who normally would vote for their party’s ticket decide to sill out the election or vote for McCain, that could be disastrous for the Democrats.

GOP Poll: Buchanan crushing Jennings in CD13

The NRCC's 3/5-6 internal poll shows U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan beating Christine Jennings 53%-37%. "Jennings is perceived to be a sore loser, and her negative image has driven her vote down,'' said the memo from pollster Public Opinion Strategies.

---Adam Smith

FL Poll: Clinton 55, Obama 39

From the latest Rasmussen robo poll: "If Hillary Clinton is eventually nominated by the Democrats, just 54% of Obama’s voters say they’d be Very Likely to vote for the former First Lady in a general election contest against John McCain. Another 9% would be Somewhat Likely to vote for Clinton. Twenty-seven percent (27%) of Obama voters say they are Not at All Likely to vote for Clinton if she is the nominee.

"If Barack Obama is nominated, just 42% of Clinton’s votes say they’d be Very Likely to vote for Obama against McCain. Another 14% would be Somewhat Likely to vote for Obama while 20% say they are Not at All Likely to vote for Obama if he is the nominee. "

FL poll: McCain neck and neck w/Clinton or Obama

But the Quinnipiac swing state poll still shows him barely ahead in

Florida, edging Clinton 44-42 percent among registered voters and Obama 41-39. Allowing for any answer, 33 percent of Florida voters list the economy as the biggest single factor in their presidential vote, with 14 percent for the war in Iraq and 12 percent for healthcare. Florida voters disapprove 61 - 31 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, but disagree 68 - 23 percent with the statement: "I am so angry at President Bush that I will not vote for Republican John McCain for President this November."  "Florida is perhaps the most conservative of the big three swing states, but even there Sen. McCain is getting about 80 percent of Republicans, indicating that this problem with conservative voters might not be as great as his problem with conservative leaders," Brown said.

Most popular and unpopular pols in FL

Check out the favorabilty/unfavorability ratings on a recent Florida House Democrats' internal poll obtained by the Buzz:

Hillary Clinton 50 fav/48 unfav; Barack Obama 59 fav/32 unfav; Charlie Crist 69 fav/14 unfav; George W. Bush 41 fav/56 unfav; Mel Martinez 45/27; Bill Nelson 59/18

Poll: McCain, Clinton winning Hispanics

Newlink Research (www.newlinkresearch.com) poll of 502 Hispanic voters, led by Dr. Eduardo Gamarra:

R's--McCain 36%; Romney 26%; Giulani 16%' D's--Clinton 69%; Obama 15%; Edwards 8%

Anti-Romney pushpolling

The Romney campaign is getting reports of anti-Romney pushpolling in Orlando, Fort Myers and West Palm Beach, the calls started this morning.

The poll calls are saying that Romney never supported Bush tax cuts, supports tax-payer funded abortions and wants relations with Fidel Castro. Some calls have targeted the Cuban community in South Florida and are in Spanish, said Al Cardenas, Romney's Florida chair.

"These are clearly negative and false attacks against Gov. Romney by a flailing campaign desperate to change the dialogue on issues that matter most to Florida voters like lower taxes, less government and stronger families," said campaign spokeswoman Kristy Campbell.

Poll: McCain, Romney tied, Amend 1 close

InsiderAdvantage: Romney: 25%; McCain: 25%; Huckabee: 17%; Giuliani: 17%; Paul: 6%; Other: 3%; Undecided: 7

"Romney has been trending upward and the fact that the race became a virtual tie again last night shows the volatility of the contest within a very small margin.   The Crist endorsement is likely not reflected in these numbers. However, with so little undecided it is of some question as to what degree the late endorsement will impact the race.

" One vote on the ballot endorsed by Crist, Amendment One concerning property taxes is three points shy of the necessary 60% to gain passage under Florida law."

Times poll: Amendment 1 too close to call

Gov. Charlie Crist’s monopoly on TV advertising and growing fears over the economy could boost passage of Amendment 1 Tuesday, a St. Petersburg Times poll has found.

But the property tax cutting measure still falls short of the 60 percent needed for passage — a bar rarely reached on referendums.

And the question remains whether opponents, who have stirred concern over the effect on local government and school budgets, can tap enough of the undecided vote to thwart a win.

Among Floridians likely to vote in Tuesday’s election, 55 percent support the measure and 30 percent oppose. In Tampa Bay, 56 percent of voters approve. Statewide, far more Republicans than Democrats like the plan.

The battle now is for the 14 percent statewide who remain undecided.

The measure “appears headed to victory,” due to Crist’s aggressive efforts on TV, radio, mail and phone advertising, said pollster Tom Eldon.

“Basically they have the microphone to themselves,” he said of Crist and the “Vote Yes on 1” campaign, which has raised more than $4-million, dwarfing the $1-million raised by the main opposition group.

Romney's FL TV advantage

With Mitt Romney launching a new ad touting his competent, free market conservatism today and polls popping up left and right don't forget the Romney's key advantage noted here: "Romney stands to have the advantage in a McCain-Romney Florida contest, because the multimillionaire former venture capitalist is the only candidate with the money to buy loads of TV ads. He already is significantly outspending his rivals on TV everywhere but in the Tampa Bay area, and in a sign of confidence today will begin airing ads in Miami-Dade, the most expensive media market.

"Unlike Romney and Giuliani, McCain has little campaign organization in Florida to mobilize support. About 270,000 Republicans and 250,000 Democrats already have voted, either through absentee ballots or early voting, and Giuliani has been especially aggressive trying to bank those early votes. " Giuliani is using direct mail and phone calls to help bank early votes, while Romney has been relying only on phone calls.

Dueling FL polls

UPDATE: MASON DIXON: Romney 30, McCain 26, Giuliani 18, Huckabee 13, Ron Paul 3. : Romney 23, INSIDERADVANTAGE: McCain 23, Romney 22, Giuliani 18, Huckabee 16, Paul 4.

Strategic Vision: McCain 25; Giuliani 22; Romney 20; Huckabee 18; Paul 5.

St. Pete Times Poll: Bye-bye Rudy?

It’s Mitt Romney vs. John McCain in the final stretch of Florida’s crucial Republican primary.

A new St. Petersburg Times poll shows the former Massachusetts governor and Arizona senator neck and neck among Florida Republicans, while Rudy Giuliani’s Florida-or-bust strategy has been a bust.

Among Florida voters likely to vote in Tuesday’s primary, 25 percent are backing McCain and 23 percent Romney, a statistical tie, while Giuliani and Mike Huckabee were tied for third place with 15 percent each.

In Florida’s odd candidate-free, campaign-free Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton is trouncing Barack Obama by 19 percentage points in a race with stark racial divisions. The poll found 42 percent backing Clinton, 23 percent supporting Obama and 12 percent former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

But it’s the volatile GOP race the nation is mainly watching, as Florida Republicans stand to have a huge influence over which candidates have a shot at competing as nearly two dozen states vote on Feb. 5. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani staked his candidacy on Florida, and even with 27 percent of Florida Republicans saying they might change their minds, it looks like a bad gamble.

"Giuliani's decision to pull out of the early states is going to go down in history if he finishes out of the money in Florida as one of the worst political decisions,'' said pollster Tom Eldon.

The survey was conducted Jan. 20-22 for the St. Petersburg Times, Bay News 9 and the Miami Herald. It was conducted by telephone from a list of registered and frequent voters in Florida who described themselves as likely to vote Jan. 29.

Poll: McCain up by 7 in Florida

American Research Group 1/20-21 (moe +/-4%): McCain 29%; Romney 22%; Huckabee 17%; Giuliani 16%; Paul 6%; Thompson 6%.

Ds: Clinton 59; Obama 21; Edwards 14. Clinton at 59?!

Push pollsters for Huckabee

We heard of one to a St Petersburg household asking favorable questions about Huckabee, and negative ones about Giuliani (abortion rights) and Romney (taxes). We heard of another in Jacksonville---robo calls from Herndon, Virginia trashing Romney's record. Sounds like ccAdvertising, which was busy in SC and other early states too.

Poll:GOP dead heat, Obama climbing

Florida Chamber poll 1/15-26 poll (moe +/-4.5%):Rs-- Giuliani 21%; McCain 20%; Romney 20%; Huckabee 13%; Thompson 7%; Paul 6%. D's--Clinton 42%; Obama 34%; Edwards 9%.

"With no clear candidate emerging as the frontrunner, the nation will certainly be looking to Florida in the coming week,'' said Marion Johnson, the chamber's vp of political strategy. "It is now a sprint to the finish in Florida - whoever can connect with Florida voters in the final days could easily win and use that momentumto go on and win Super Tuesday."

Poll: McCain leads FL, Obama closing

Strategic Vision 1/11-13 (MOE +/- 3): John McCain 27%; Mike Huckabee 20%; Rudy Giuliani 18%; Mitt Romney 17%; Fred Thompson 10%;Ron Paul 5%. Last month, Giuliani led Huckabee by 4 percentage points and McCain by 10.

Hillary Clinton 45%; Barack Obama 39%; John Edwards 11%. Last month's Strategic Vision poll had Clinton up by 17.

McCain replaces Giuliani in new FL poll

Sen. John McCain has surged to the front of the presidential pack in Florida, a new Quinnipiac University poll shows. But consider the 4.8 percent margin of error and the race remains too close to call.

McCain has 22 percent of Republican likely primary voters, with Rudy Giuliani at 20 percent, and Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee at 19 percent each.

McCain shows the largest movement since Quinnipiac University’s December 20 likely voter survey, picking up 9 percentage points from his fourth-place 13 percent showing.

“These numbers can’t be good news for Mayor Giuliani who has staked his entire campaign on winning Florida and whose lead has evaporated," said pollster Peter Brown. "Giuliani is showing the negative effects of poor finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, while McCain’s jump is not unexpected given his New Hampshire victory."

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton retains a 52 – 31 percent lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

Poll: McCain winning FL

SurveyUSA 1/9-10 robo poll: McCain 27; Giuliani 19; Huckabee 17; Romney 17; Thompson 8; Paul 5.

FL poll: Rudy Leads; Clinton's lead shrinks

InsiderAdvantage 1/7 poll for Southern Political Report: Giuliani 24%; Huckabee 19% McCain 19%; Romney 13%; Thompson 8%; Paul 5%; Hunter 1%; No Opinion: 11%.

Clinton 40%; Obama: 32%; Edwards 9%; Richardson 6%; Kucinich 2%; No Opinion: 10%

Thompson have fuel to make it to Florida?

Tucked deep inside a Thompson campaign statement today about its focus on the upcoming South Carolina primary was this revealing statement:

"The campaign's headquarters staff is going above and beyond the call of duty to shift the focus to South Carolina, as well. National office staff will work for reduced pay through the South Carolina voting." (Emphasis added).

A victory for the native Southern son in the Palmetto state -- where an average of polls put him virtually tied for fourth with Rudy Giuliani -- is key to his plans for a big show in Florida. But will he have the money to make it here?

FL Poll: Huck Leads, Rudy in 4th place

Jan. 5-7 Datamar robo poll: Mike Huckabee 24%; Mitt Romney 20%; John McCain 18%; Rudy Giuliani 16%.

Hillary Clinton 40%; Barack Obama 28%; John Edwards 19%.

McCain revving up in Florida

John McCain is opening a West Palm Beach campaign office as it prepares to ride a wave in Florida. "Our campaign for change in Washington has grabbed the imagination of voters from Iowa to New Hampshire and continues to resonate in Florida," McCain said in a statement. "We have a tremendous leadership team in Florida that is now mobilizing for the primary. Florida will play a critical role in deciding this nomination and I look forward to bringing my message of fiscal responsibility and strength on national security to the people of the state."

For those that forgot McCain once had a pulse in Florida, his Florida campaign leadership team - recyled  by the campaign tonightt, is below.

Giuliani: It's the delegates ...

Let the expectations game begin. As Rudy Giuliani tries to rev up his presidential campaign while not winning early contests, his campaign has put out a "strategy memo" -- wink, wink -- on why his plan will work. It reinforces the Giuliani strategy to bank on Florida's Jan. 29 primary instead of building momentum out of Thursday's Iowa caucuses (where he is trailing). The Giuliani campaign, which has seen its Florida lead drop, notes 40 percent of the delegates by Jan. 29 come from Florida.

"In Iowa, one could anticipate that Mayor Giuliani might finish outside of the top 3. Governors Huckabee and Romney are battling it out for first, Senator Thompson is spending a lot of time in the state over the closing days of the campaign and Senator McCain received a recent boost from the endorsement of the Des Moines Register. While placement in Iowa will be a focus of the media, it should be remembered that Senator McCain came in 5th place in Iowa (behind Bauer and Keyes) before winning New Hampshire [in 2000]."

And: "Also, by the time we get to Florida, the field of candidates and the race will look remarkably different than it does right now. Florida will be the important battleground not only for our campaign but for the race itself."

Polls: Huckabee surging in FL

Two more polls show Mike Huckabee giving Rudy Giuliani a run for his money in Florida. Maybe that explains why Rudy's campaign has cut back his TV expenses in New Hampshire, to give it more flexibility and resources for must-win Florida.

Strategic Vision's 12/14-16 poll : Rudy Giuliani 25%;  Mike Huckabee 21%; John McCain 15%; Mitt Romney 13%; Fred Thompson 10% Ron Paul 4%; Tom Tancredo 2%; Duncan Hunter 1%; and 9% undecided. “Republicans could potentially have four to five viable candidates when the race comes to Florida.  Such a scenario would benefit Guilaini as it would divide the conservative vote.  Most interesting is the McCain revival particularly in the I-4 corridor,” said  a statement from Strategic Vision CEO David "Not DJ, the former RPOF executive director" Johnson.

Then there's the new SurveyUSA automated poll: Giuliani 29%; Huckabee 24%; Romney 20%; McCain 10%; Thompson 8%; other 6%, undecided 3%.

Another poll with Huck leading FL

From Datamar, 12/9-13 (656 Rs): Huckabee 25%, Giuliani 21%, Romney 19%; McCain 10%; Thompson 9%; Paul 5%. Among 600 Ds: Clinton 44%; Obama 20%; Edwards 14% Richardson 4%.

We don't vouch for all these polls, we just blog em

Al Hoffman jumps aboard team McCain

This is a big deal. The two-time RNC finance chairman, former Jeb finance chairman, and one of the most elite GOP fundraisers in America has cut short his ambassadorship in Portugal so he can help out Arizona Sen. John McCain.  "I couldn't stand by on the sidelines for '08 and let tha battle wage on and not be part of it,'' the southwest FL developer told Buzz today. "I feel like I can make a greater impact impact on the future of America doing that than serving out my ambassadorship."

Hoffman, who's hosting a McCain fundraiser at his home Sunday, said he's been surprised how many donors remain undecided after Romney and Giuliani have scoured the state for money so thoroughly, and that McCain's growing strength in New Hampshire makes it easier to persuade people.

"It all came down to one question: who would I want to be president in a time of national crisis, and what president is best qualified to keep us safe? I trust his judgement, I trust his character and I trust his understanding of what conflict is all about. It was a no-brainer."

Poll: Huckabee leading in FL?!

Take it with as many grains of salt as you want, but here's what Rasmussen's latest survey of 685 likely Florida GOP primary voters shows: Huckabee 27 percent, Romney 23%, Giuliani 19%, Thompson 9%; McCain 6%, Paul 4%.

"Just 49% of voters are “certain” they will vote for their current favorite when the election actually rolls around. If voters do change their mind, Giuliani narrowly tops the list as a second choice. Eighteen percent (18%) say the New Yorker is their second choice followed by McCain at 16%, Romney at 15%, Huckabee at 13%, and Thompson at 12%. Among those who say there is a good chance they could change their mind, Giuliani is an even stronger second choice preference."

Poll: Hillary beating Rudy in FL

For Hillary Clinton sweating it out in Iowa, Florida can't come soon enough. Here's the latest from Quinnipiac's Swing State Polling (11/26-12/3):

"Clinton tops Obama 53 – 17 percent among all Democrats and 56 – 13 percent among women. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gets 7 percent.  Giuliani gets 30 percent of Republican votes, with 12 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 11 percent for Huckabee, 10 percent for former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and 9 percent for Arizona Sen. John McCain."

"Clinton tops Giuliani 48 – 41 percent; Giuliani led 46 – 43 percent October 25....Clinton tops McCain 47 – 40 percent, Thompson 52 – 36 percent, Romney 50 – 36 percent and Huckabee 50 – 35 percent; Giuliani bests Obama 45 – 37 percent and Edwards 43 – 39 percent."

The wild straw poll in St. Pete

The rules of the Republican straw poll at Wednesday's CNN/YouTube debate were simple: Buy a ticket for $20 a pop and vote for your favorite candidate. The money would benefit local Republican parties.

Yet when hundreds of Ron Paul supporters arrived by trolley and shuttle, dominating the estimated 1,000 or so guests at the Vinoy Park fundraiser, the event quickly became a heated contest between Paul's people and Mitt Romney supporters.

At stake? The very integrity of the democratic process, to hear some tell it.

Click here for the story of ballot stuffing and allegations of physical threats.

Lobbyist busted 'stealing' election for Romney?

We received a breathless e-mail exposing that the Tampa Bay $20-per vote straw poll this week was a fraud because people were seen voting over and over again ("This kind of stuff has to stop, or the polls mean NOTHING"). Checking the video link, we see Fred Leonhardt, the Gray Robinson lobbyist/power broker and Romney supporter, voting again and again. That's perfectly kosher - and the straw poll was never billed as a real election - albeit a bit sinister-looking on video.

Leonhardt told Buzz the fellow next to him was happily stuffing the ballots for Ron Paul. "Meanwhile everyone in America watching the substance of the debate knows Mike Huckabee won it (based on the media reviews), and nobody knows what happened with the straw poll,'' laughed Leonhardt, who didn't know himself the straw poll results until we told him.

Romney wins straw poll

The results are in from the rained out "Have Your Say Tampa Bay" straw poll and debate watch rally:

Romney 893; Paul; 534 Giuliani 39; Huckabee 37; Thompson 21; McCain 12; Hunter 4; Keyes 2; Tancredo 1.

Poll: Hillary beats Rudy in FL

Yep, these polls are all over the map. The new 11/25-26 poll from CNN/Opinion research poll (moe +/- 5.5%) shows Giuliani  with 38%;  Romney  17%; McCain 11%; Thompson 11%; Huckabee 9%; Paul 5%; Hunter 1%. Giuliani was in a dead heat with Romney on the question of who's most honest, but overwhelmingly beat the field when people were asked who's the strongest leader, who has the best chance of beating the Democratic nominee and who's the most likeable.

In a general election matchup, Clinton beat Giuliani in Florida 51% to 42%.

Poll: Huckabee's number 2

InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research 11/25-26 poll of 675 likely Florida Republican voters: Rudy Giuliani (26%); Mike Huckabee (17%); John McCain (13%); Mitt Romney (12%); Fred Thompson (9%); Ron Paul (3%); Duncan Hunter (1%); Tom Tancredo (1%); Undecided (18%).

“Mike Huckabee’s sudden traction in the GOP race is similar to the jolt of publicity Fred Thompson enjoyed when he officially announced his candidacy,” Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage and a nationally syndicated columnist with Creators Syndicate, said in FloridaInsider. “Now Huckabee must take advantage of the opportunity if he is to separate himself from all the other candidates trying to overtake Giuliani. And Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson are now under even more pressure to come up with powerful performances of their own in St. Pete Wednesday,” Towery said.

Straw poll: Ron Paul v. Mitt Romney?

At least 1,500 $20 tickets have been sold for tomorrow evening's  "Have Your Say in Tampa Bay" GOP straw poll and debate watch party at St. Pete's Vinoy Park. The Buzz is that two campaigns are working hardest to rack up a victory at that straw poll of Republicans in the biggest battleground region in America's biggest battleground state - Ron Paul and Mitt Romney.

"CALLING ALL RON PAUL SUPPORTERS: The Champion of the Constitution needs our help,'' declared one e-mail asking Ron Paul supporters to make a strong showing. "Everybody should play to win ... We're going to have people from all over the state here,'' Paul supporter Paul Bourgeois told us.

Romney spokeswoman Kristy Campbell was a bit more vague: "We've encouraged our supporters to go.''

Giuliani spokesman Elliott Bundy, said Giuliani supporters will have a reception at Midotwn Sundries at First Avenue S, but is more or less ignoring the straw poll: "In keeping with our policy throughout the campaign of not participating in straw polls, whether it's county straw polls or Ames, we will not be participating in that straw poll.''

That whacky YouTube debate

Months after the first YouTube presidential debate, on the eve of Round 2 in St Pete, some observers are asking: Did the novel, tech-infused debate change anything?  Story is here.

Meanwhile the Fl Chamber is planning an insta-poll on who wins the debate Wednesday night. InsiderAdvantage says it has placed more than 100,000 calls to find undecided Fl Republicans who planned to watch the debate. Immediately after the debate the randomly collected sample of undecided voters will call a toll-free number sent to them.

"Data should be collected by 10:20 pm," said Jeff Shusterman of Majority Opinion, InsiderAdvantage's research partners. "We will weight the data for age, gender, and geographic location, and should have results
between 10:30 and 10:45 p.m."

Poll: Rudy up by 14, Hillary by 29

We don't know much about San Diego-based Datamar Inc, except that last time it polled FL it found John  Edwards leading the Democratic field. Hmmmm. Well, here's what Datamar found in its 11/16-21 Florida poll:

Hillary Clinton 48%; Barack Obama 19%; John Edwards 13.2%; Bill Richardson 5.2%; Joe Biden 4.7%; Dennis Kucinich 4.1%; undecided 7%

R's: Rudy Giuliani 28.8; Mitt Romney 15.3%; Fred Thompson 13.9%; John McCain 10.4%; Mike Huckabee 6.9%; Ron Paul 4%; undecided 18.8%

Hillary struggling in Fl's general election

Mason-Dixon has Giuliani beating Clinton in Florida 50% to 43%, and while 57 percent of voters said they would consider voting for the former New York mayor only 49 percent said they would consider voting for the New York senator. Thompson beats her 48-44, and Romney 46-45.

About one in five voters said they would be less likely to vote Democrat because the of DNC penalties and candidate boycott over Flordida's early primary.

Poll: Thompson down, Hillary's still cruising

New Mason-Dixon numbers for Florida show Rudy Giuliani rising at the expense of Fred Thompson, who's dropped 11 points since Mason-Dixon's Sept. Florida poll. Weirdly, Barack Obama's unfavorables (54 favorable/26 unfavorable) are worse than than Hillary Clinton's (62/23). In a two-person Florida primary, Hillary beats Obama 54% to 34%. The Sentinel has more here.

GOP PRIMARY VOTE 11/07  9/07
Giuliani                   36%    24%
Romney                   15%    13%
Thompson               12%     23%
McCain                    10%      9%
Huckabee                 8%       6%
Others                     4%        3%
Undecided               15%       22%

---------
                        State   men  women 
Hillary Clinton    42%    36%   46%
Barack Obama    15%    14%   16%
John Edwards     12%    14%   11%
Bill Richardson     7%     10%    5%
Joe Biden             3%      3%    3%
Chris Dodd            1%      2%     -
Dennis Kucinich     1%      1%    1%
Mike Gravel             -       -     -
Undecided (NOT READ) 19% 20% 18%

Poll reveals a pessimistic Florida

Property insurance rates are about to turn John Melkun into a Pasco County refugee, as he considers following in his brother's footsteps to sink new roots in South Carolina.

Melkun is among Floridians who say the state is headed down the wrong track, a group that outnumbered those who say the state is on the right track, according to a recent St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 poll.

"Florida is going backwards. The Legislature and the state, they talk and talk and talk, and they move slower than a snail," said Melkun, 60, a retired construction worker whose State Farm premium increased from $900 to $4,700 this year.

While frustrated, most Floridians don't appear to blame Gov. Charlie Crist. His popularity has slipped some, with 57 percent of those polled saying he is doing a good or excellent job. In May, a similar poll done for the St. Petersburg Times by the same companies showed about 62 percent of those polled gave Crist high marks. (Story here.)

Another toss-up for FL's 27 electoral votes

Get ready Florida for another nail biter presidential election. A new St. Petersburg /Bay News 9 poll shows America's biggest battleground state is up for grabs by either Republicans or Democrats, and that neither of the front-runners for their party nominations, Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Rodham Clinton, has Florida locked up yet. 

"Florida is poised to be both a bellwether and maybe even a shocker and a bit of a surprise for presidential politics in 2008," said pollster Kellyanne Conway.

Former New York Mayor Giuliani beat Clinton by 5 percentage points among the 800 registered voters surveyed Nov. 4-7, and Arizona Sen. John McCain was neck-and-neck with Clinton in head-to-head matchups. But independent voters, strongly disenchanted with the Iraq war, President Bush and the direction of the country, make Florida's 27 electoral votes ripe for Democrats to pluck. Florida Democrats overwhelmingly favor Clinton, who had 48 percent support compared to 24 percent for Barack Obama. Eight percent favored former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. Clinton's strongest area was Tampa Bay, where she had 60 percent support among Democrats but still lagged Giuliani and McCain in Tampa Bay.

Among Republican voters, former Tennessee Sen. and Law & Order star Fred Thompson is proving to be nowhere near the force many had expected when he entered the race in September. The poll showed him in fifth place with 8 percent support, behind former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, with 9 percent, McCain with 12 percent, Mitt Romney with 19 percent and Giuliani with 36 percent in the state he declares a must-win. (Read the story here.)

Poll: Law & Order fans prefer Rudy?

Not everybody loves robo-pollsters like SurveyUSA, but we see some interesting tidbits in the cross-tabs of its latest Florida poll: Among regular Law & Order watchers likely to vote in the GOP primary, 38% back Giuliani, compared to 20 percent for Law & Order actor Fred Thompson and 19% for Mitt Romney. Rudy leads among self-described conservatives, with 30% support, compared to 20 percent for Romney and 22% for Thompson, who leads the pack in north Florida.

Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton is trouncing Barack Obama by 37 percentage points, though SurveyUSA finds African-Americans support Obama over Hillary, 56% to 41%.

The poll also found that 56% of Florida voters are uncertain how they'll vote on the property tax amendment.

Secret straw poll: Clinton; Edwards stongest in FL

Could John Edwards be the real competition for Hillary Clinton? That's what an unofficial and unauthorized straw poll by taken at the Florida Democratic convention last weekend seems to suggest. Marvin and Shelley Quittner received back 703 ballots(at least 10 more are outstanding), which asked people to pick their top choice as well as their top four choices.

For the top choice question, only three candidates got at least 15% of the vote, the threshold for winning delegates: Hillary Clinton, with 296, Barack Obama with 110, and John Edwards with 108. That was followed by Al Gore with 82; Dennis Kucinich with 45; Bill Richardson with 31; Joe Biden with 20; Mike Gravel with 7 and Chris Dodd with 2. 

Then Quittner, a retired lawyer from Plantation, eliminated Gore and assigned the Gore voters secondary choices to one of the candidates showing 15 percent viability. The result? Clinton 323(46%); Edwards 140 (20%); and Obama (17%). Finally, he assigned the top choices of all the also-rans to Clinton, Edwards and Obama: Clinton 359 (51%); Edwards (25%); Obama (20%).