Why Obama can win FL

MEMO TO: Sen. Barack Obama

Re: Blowing off 27 electoral votes

Thanks for coming by next week for a three-day campaign swing, senator.

There has been lots of chatter about you ceding Florida to Sen. John McCain, given the way you've ignored the state for eight months and dismissed the 1.75-million Democrats who voted in our disputed Democratic primary. We're trying not to take it personally when you keep talking about the old electoral map — i.e. Pennsylvania, Ohio and US! — being so 2000/2004.

But here's something you and your advisers might be missing: Florida is turning bluer by the day.

The trend is easy to miss when you see the popularity of our Republican governor, Charlie Crist. Add John Kerry's five-point loss here in 2004 and Jeb Bush's 2002 landslide re-election as the DNC's top target, and nobody could blame you for thinking Florida is solidly Republican red.

Take a closer look, though, because Florida's political landscape is shifting dramatically. More here.

DNC panel: FL won't get off scott free

The Associated Press interviewed a third of the panel members and several other Democrats involved in the negotiations and found widespread agreement that the states must be punished for stepping out of line. If not, the members say, other states will do the same thing in four years.

"We certainly want to be fair to both candidates, and we want to be sure that we are fair to the 48 states who abided by the rules," said Democratic National Committee Secretary Alice Germond.

"We have to have delegates, and they have to be delegations that reflect the opinions of those two states," said former DNC Chairman Don Fowler, a committee member supporting Clinton. "How we get there is very different because everyone sees these questions of who it helps and who it hurts. I don't think the formulation has been found that will get around the piece at this point." But he said a solution is probably possible among the diverse interests.  More here.

Those Edwards delegates in FL

Sen. John Edwards' endorsement of Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination puts 13 Florida delegates in play. If those delegates follow Edwards' lead and support Obama — and at least half already have decided to do so, according to a survey by the St. Petersburg Times — Clinton's margin over Obama would shrink by one-third. More here.

RPOF welcomes back Obama

The state GOP has put some creative effort into its countdown for the return of Barack Obama to Florida. Check it out.

"Florida voters deserve to know why Barack Obama will take thousands of dollars from deep-pocket fundraisers, while refusing to talk to Florida voters, grassroots volunteers, or media," explained RPOF Chairman Jim Greer.  "They deserve to know why Barack Obama has ignored Floridians for 249 days, and they deserve to know what he will do to make sure that the 1.7 million Democrats who voted in the Florida Primary aren’t disenfranchised. "

Obama at St Pete Times forum

UPDATE: Details on the jump

That's the Buzz - not confirmed by the campaign yet - that Barack Obama has settled on the St. Petersburg Times forum for an mid-afternoon event Wednesday. He'll finish up his trip Friday outside his comfort zone with a speech before the ardently anti-Castro Cuban American National Foundation.

"Recount" casts Dems as wusses

NY Times: "Wounds from the Florida recount, still healing for many Democrats, are being ripped open again for some prominent former advisers to Al Gore. They say that a coming HBO film dramatizing the ballot battle after the 2000 election unfairly blames them for the Democrats’ failure to secure the White House."

Dems get to blog convention

The DNCC has tapped the Florida Progressive Coalition to be Florida's designated convention blogger. "Similar to the record-breaking voter turnout our Party has seen during the primary season, the demand for these coveted blogger positions is yet another indicator of the tremendous interest in this historic Convention," said Howard Dean. "The Internet has played a critical role in connecting Americans to elected officials and candidates seeking office. The DemConvention State Blogger Corps will continue to foster this dialogue - in all 50 of our states and our territories too - as we head towards this year's historic election and elect a Democrat to the White House."

Florida is still in the dog house, of course. Though Dean has said hotel rooms have been set aside for a would-be Florida delegation, the national party still won't say where: "If they are seated we will absolutely provide for their housing needs," said DNCC spokeswoman Natalie Wyeth. "No specific hotel has been assigned."

Nepotism alive and well among Democrats

In a state with Castors, Meeks, Bushes, Bilirakises, and Diaz-Balarts, we probably shouldn't be surprised to see nepotism popping up in the FDP's elections of wanna-be delegates to the Democratic national convention. But with interest stonger than ever in becoming delegates - even with all the uncertainty - there's a growing Buzz of discontent over the deck being stacked for relatives of party insiders in big south Florida counties that dominate the state Democratic executive committee. Among them: Lori Glasser, daughter-in-law of Diane Glasser; and Jared Moscowitz, son of Mike Moscowitz.

There's also grumbling about Miami-Dade Chairman Bret Berlin pushing for his mother to be elected to one of the 40 at large delegate slots that nearly 400 people are vying for. But Democrats being Democrats, they have big time affirmative action guidelines, and Berlin tells Buzz he's actually not voting for his mother and is discouraging others from doing so. Why? Because mom's not black, Hispanic, native American, Asian, disabled, a vet, gay, lesbian, bi or transgender and thus doesn't fit the affirmative action plan.

"Especially on Mother's Day, it's not easy to have that discussion with your mother,'' Berlin said of opposing his own mother's candidacy. Below is an e-mail making the rounds of Democratic activists. The header: "Broward and Miami-Dade party leaders abusing the system for their own special interest"

McCain returning to Florida

He'll be in Miami Tuesday giving a speech about Cuba and Latin America. No word yet on other public events.

Obama cares about FL?

Maybe it's time to cool the speculation about Barack Obama writing off Florida's 27 electoral votes. The day after the Illinois senator is expected to win a majority of the delegates for the nomination, he is planning to make up for lost time by kicking off a three-day Florida campaign swing in the Tampa Bay area on May 21. He also recently sent a campaign worker to Miami to work on voter registration, and more are expected soon.

"It just confirms what everyone on the Obama campaign has been saying — not only will we compete in Florida but we'll compete in every part of Florida," said Miami lawyer Kirk Wagar, Obama's Florida finance chairman. "He has to introduce himself to the people in Florida in a way that he won't have to in all the other primary states (where) he's competed, but he has the time and the resources and the message," Wagar said. "

Who's hosting Obama's upcoming fundraisers?

The still-changing host lists in Orlando 5/21: Bill Beckett, Nathan Carter, Roger Chapin, Joseph Egan, Rohini & Suresh Gupta Edye & Ed Haddock, Bibiana & Gregory Herbert, Isis & Garry Jones, Allan Katz, David King, Nouha & Patrick Kupelian, Bob Mandell, Sarah & Brock McClane, Rosy & Harold Mills, Mark NeJame, Sherri Pierce, Tom Rossetter, Fritz Schiller, Bobby Stein, Nancy Whited & Michelle Stile, Nell & Brad Thompson, Kirk Wagar, Ann & Bill Wallace, Susan Morris & Ron Webster, Edward Woodill III

And in Hollywood 5/22:Rachel & Jeremy Alters, Katie Lane Arriola & Eddy Arriola, Ricky Arriola, Adrienne Arsht, Maggie & JP Austin;Chandra & Freddy Balsera, William Barzee, Mitchell Berger, Ed Bell, Ingrid & Neil Birenbaum; Allison Cammack, Steven Chaykin, Ahpaly Coradin, Lynn Overmann & David Crouch, Jaret Davis,Jorge Dominicis, Mike Eidson, Gary Farmer, Barbara & Richard Garrett, Nancy & Mark Gilbert; Evelyn & Bruce Greer, Carla & Marlon Hill, Heather Urban Holtzman & Max Holtzman, Mayor Neisen Kasdin; Allan Katz, Hank Klein, Lilianne & David Kubiliun, Michael Lozoff, Joseph Louis, Jr.;Christina Getty‐Maercks & Arin Maercks, Chris Marlin, Todd Michaels, Bryan Miller;Rachel & Damian Navarez, Tunde Ogunluna, Broward County Commissioner Stacy Ritter, Tony Rogers, John Ruffin, Jessica Goldman Srebnick & Scott Srebnick, Abby & Damian Thorman, Pamela Watson; Anne & Andrew Weinstein, Leslie Zigel.

Obama coming to Tampa Bay

Details to come, but Barack Obama is set to do some kind of public campaign event in Tampa Bay on the afternoon of Wednesday, May 21.

Coming the day after he's likely to win a majority of elected delegates in Oregon and Kentucky (and a potentially logical day for Hillary Clinton to exit), Obama's Tampa Bay stop is is part of a three-day campaign swing through Florida. It's the first time since August that the Illinois senator has been willing do campaign in Florida outside of private fundraisers.

Click here to read more from the Associated Press.

Compromise looming on Fl delegates?

In a sign that the impasse over giving Florida a voice in the Democratic nomination finally may be breaking, both Democratic presidential campaigns are starting to broach compromise plans publicly. Democratic National Committee member Allan Katz of Tallahassee said the Barack Obama campaign authorized him to suggest to the Florida Democratic Party on Friday that it propose a compromise plan that would let Hillary Rodham Clinton net about 10 delegates out of Florida. He got nowhere with the state party, but on Sunday the Clinton campaign for the first time signaled publicly that it might accept something other than Florida's getting all of its delegates seated at the convention.

"The party took away 100 percent of the delegates. The rule is 50 percent,'' Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe told Tim Russert on NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday. "Had they only taken away 50 percent like the Republican Party did, Tim, you and I would not be having this conversation today."

More here.

Ausman: Fladems won't get 211 delegates

Jon Ausman was in the DC area this weekend where he a) won a big cycling event and b)met with a some key Democrats involved in the 5/31 DNC rules and bylaws committee meeting on his appeals. From his latest e-mail, here's what he expects to happen:

1--Florida is going to receive a penalty and we are not going to get 211 delegates on 31 May 2008.
2-Florida is going to get some delegates and alternates on 31 May 2008.
3--My presentation is going to be positive and forward looking because we are all on the same team.
4--My presentation is going to acknowledge that Florida violated the “timing rule”
5--My presentation is going to note how Floridahas already been punished.
6--My presentation will note the rules call for a reduction of delegates, not an elimination.
7--My presentation will acknowledge that a reduction is called for at this point.

UPDATED: From the Florida Democratic Delegate Front: Lots of movement, but standing still

With her chances of winning fading, Hillary Clinton sent Barack Obama a letter Thursday imploring him to ask the Democratic National Committee to make all of Florida's and Michigan's delegates count towards the presidential nomination.

Most of Florida's congressional Democrats also sent DNC Chairman Howard Dean a letter asking him to help ensure a decision is made by May 31, when the Rules and Bylaws Committee meets to hear an appeal of Florida's case. The state lost its delegates for holding its primary on Jan. 29, a week earlier than party rules allowed.

Meanwhile, at about the same time those letters were released, the Associated Press caused an uproar by reporting that the DNC, the Florida Democratic Party, Obama and Clinton were "on the verge" of striking a deal for seating some portion of Florida's 211 delegates.

It turned out to be wrong, however.

Jimmy Carter disses FL Dems

AP: BURBANK, Calif. -- Former President Jimmy Carter says delegates from Florida and Michigan should not be counted at the Democratic National Convention because they "disqualified themselves." On "The Tonight Show" Wednesday, Carter also warned of a disaster if party insiders try to wrest the nomination from the candidate with the largest number of votes and state victories.

"It would be a catastrophe for the party," Carter told Jay Leno.

How to push Clinton out

If Obama wants to eliminate one of Clinton's last rationales for staying in the race, and if he wants to curb the considerable skepticism about his interest and ability to compete in America's biggest battleground state, he should start mending Sunshine State fences and speak out about counting Florida's votes.

"That could potentially open the floodgates for superdelegates to come on board if he was that gracious and that comfortable in his inevitability to win the nomination,'' said Bob Buckhorn, a Democratic consultant in Tampa who backs Clinton. "It would go a long way to ease the anger that remains over Florida's votes not counting."

More here.

Gelber endorses Obama

Dan Gelber, one of Florida's wannabe super-delegates, blogs his endorsement of Obama: "...Doesn’t he have a Jewish problem? Yes, but only because the Internet doesn’t have a truth key. Don’t believe everything you read in a viral chain email. As an American Jew, a strong and secure Israel is a paramount concern of mine. Not a single fiber in my body worries that Sen. Obama will not cherish Israel with the same fervor I would expect of any American President. Anyone who says otherwise is simply trying to exploit passions for Israel for partisan gain – and that is truly endangering to Israel....

Why not count FL votes, Obama?

Rules are rules and all that. But Barack Obama has all but clinched the nomination, Hillary Clinton can't catch up in delegates or popular vote even if Michigan and Florida are suddenly counted 100%. So why doesn't the presumptive nominee take the issue off the table, make nice with the Sunshine state, and join Sen. Bill Nelson's call to fully seat Florida's delegation based on Jan. 29 but only give delegates half a vote? More specifically, cut that half so she nets 19 delegates rather than a measly 6 that would keep her campaign complaining about disenfranchisement.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe: "Obviously there's a lot of discussion about remedies in Florida and we've expressed openness to those. I think the Clinton campaign has been less willing to consider anything other than full seating of the delegates and so we're hopeful that dialogue will continue. And again I don't think the results of Florida and Michigan are going to be used in any way to overturn the outcome of this election. ...

Clinton finished?

Hillary Rodham Clinton wanted a "game changer," but Tuesday may prove to be a game ender. Even though Clinton eked out a victory early today, her momentum was halted. Her last grasp at the nomination now may hinge on counting Florida's officially meaningless primary.

"The last month has been an exercise in denial, and the only thing that's been accomplished is her attempt to hurt Barack Obama,'' said Fort Lauderdale lawyer Mitchell Berger, veteran Democratic fundraiser and Obama supporter. "Tonight should show the superdelegates that there's no question that Sen. Obama has withstood the body blows and has shown not just by what has happened but by the way he has dealt with it that he is able to appeal to us in a better way than just division," Berger said.

More here.

Mahoney's Obama/Clinton poll

U.S. Rep. Tim Mahoney, D-Palm Beach Gardens, one of Florida's would-be super delegates, says he's not inclined to choose between Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama yet, because neither is actively working to seat Florida's Democratic delegates. "It makes no sense to reward Barack or Hillary without Florida," he said.

But he has talked with both of them, and says his district appears split: In a poll commissioned for his campaign last month, Clinton and Obama were running about equal. As has been the pattern elsewhere, Clinton polled better among traditional working-class Democrats, while Obama's strength came from middle- and upper-income Democrats, as well as independents and a small number of Republicans.

His mixed rural, suburban and urban district runs from Palm Beach County through the belly of the state to the Gulf Coast.

Those anxious Fl Dems

The RPOF came up with this nifty illustration to honor the Floridians who recently picketed the DNC, and we needed an excuse to post it. So here are two views from uncommitted would-be superdelegates from Florida about the importance of Democrats getting a nominee soon:

U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd thinks it would be fine for the Obama/Clinton contest to continue to the convention: "I'm in no rush to decide, and I don't think the fact that the primary battle is continuing hurts the party. If anything it may help the country understand the two candidates a little better."

DNC member Janee Murphy of Tampa hopes the the DNC rules and bylaws committee resolves Florida on May 31: "My whole focus is having a campaign here in Florida to secure the 27 electoral votes for whoever the nominee is. In my opinion August will make it tough for us to put together a campaign. The grass roots people need to have the resources now to start gearing up for the general.

Gas tax politics

We could hardly have a better issue than the gas tax debate to encapsulate, in near-caricature form, the different styles of these two formidable candidates. There's ruthless Hillary Clinton, the say-anything, do-anything-to-win candidate, shamelessly pandering while economist after economist slams her (and John McCain) for proposing a federal gas tax hiatus that they say is lousy policy. And there's Barack Obama, Adlai Stevenson reincarnated, who relates to eggheads in faculty lounges and newspaper editorial boards far better than working stiffs desperate for a little relief at the gas pump.

Democratic pollster Dave Beattie, who is not working for either campaign, said one reason the gas tax holiday is not more popular is because many voters have seen firsthand that such proposals produce little relief at the pump. "When you do something repeatedly and people don't see a change, they get skeptical,'' said Beattie, who is based in Jacksonville. "In Florida we've had a gas tax holiday, and I bet if you asked the average Floridian if they saved money I don't think they'd remember the gas tax holiday."

More here. Meanwhile Charlie Crist's failed push for a gas tax holiday get him on the New York Times front page today:

Insider prediction: FL delegates to get half votes

Gary Shay, a DNC rules and bylaws committee member from California, told Democrats in his state he is confident Florida's delegate mess will be resolved when the committee meets May 31, though Michigan remains murkier:

"What I anticipate will happen is that—and I have not received any communications from anybody, this is just my own thoughts on the matter—that the superdelegates will likely be seated from both states. That Florida will be seated with a half delegate for each pledged delegate based upon the January results. The concept there being that there must be some punishment for violating the rules, and at the same time, excluding those two states is very difficult, and as far as Michigan is concerned, that’s anybody’s guess. I have no idea what is going to happen with them."

Bashing Crist as VP

  Larry Thornberry, a Tampa writer, in American Spectator smacks down the notion that John McCain should tap Charlie Crist as his running mate: "The conventional wisdom is that Crist would help McCain carry Florida, without which state McCain has little chance of winning in November. But Crist's political pull elsewhere would be limited, because he's at least as unappealing to the conservative Republican base McCain needs to win over as McCain himself is, and has far less gravitas. He's sort of a Dan Quayle without the maturity and seriousness. For long-time observers of Crist and Florida politics, imagining Charlie Crist in the Oval Office is a little like imagining an armadillo in a tuxedo."

Thornberry has trashed Crist before.

FL Hispanics going Dem

Politico: "For the first time, the number of Hispanic Democrats in the state is expected to exceed the number of Hispanic Republicans. ... The significance of the numerical flip is mostly symbolic, but it's a powerful symbol at a key moment: Quietly, Democrats are debating whether to mount a full-out, expensive challenge to Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, in Florida, or essentially cede its 27 Electoral College votes to theGOP. "

FL Poll: McCain beats Obama, not Clinton

4/30-5/1 robo poll of 623 registered Florida voters by War Room Logistics of Gainesville: John McCain 47%, Barack Obama 40% (independents - 45% McCain, 38 percent Obama); McCain 44%, Hillary Clinton 45% (independents 39 McCain, 39 Clinton).

52% said Gov. Charlie Crist is doing a good or excellent job, and 47 percent said fair or poor. 51% said the economy was the top issue, followed by the Iraq war at 15%.

Diverse trio to press DNC

Democratic National Committee member Jon Ausman of Tallahassee is bringing some back-up troops with him to Washington to appeal the DNC’s stripping away of Florida’s 211 delegates. Also expected to make presentations are DNC members Janee Murphy of Tampa and former Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez. It never hurts to be represented not just by a white male, but an African-American woman and Hispanic man when arguing that Florida’s votes should count.

State Democratic chairwoman Karen Thurman is expected to attend, but not necessarily speak.

Kucinich to Florida's rescue

Former presidential candidate and OH Rep. Dennis Kucinich is circulating a plan to fix the Florida and Michigan delegates mess, reports CQ: "...The plan would base the distribution of delegates on polling conducted by three firms, one selected by each campaign and a third chosen by the other two companies. Delegates would be apportioned based on the composite findings of the three polls. None of the firms could have previously been employed by either campaign..."

Poll: McCain in trouble in FL

Start measuring those vice presidential mansion drapes, Charlie Crist. Quinnipiac University's latest swing state poll shows Hillary Clinton beating McCain in Florida 49 - 41 percent, while McCain gets 44 percent to Barack Obama's 43 percent (moe +/- 2.6). She's also handily beating McCain in PA and OH.

From the release: "Facing McCain in November, Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent among women, while he gets 45 percent of men to her 43 percent. They tie 45 - 45 percent among white voters, while she leads 80 - 11 percent among black voters. In an Obama-McCain matchup, men back McCain 46 - 42 percent, while women split, with 44 percent for Obama and 42 percent for McCain. The Republican leads among white voters 50 - 36 percent, while the Democrat leads among black voters 83 - 8 percent. "

Is Rev. Wright killing Obama?

Sen. Steve Geller, a potential super-delegate, says he's not jumping to any conclusions and will wait until he sees polling in key states like FL, PA, and OH around the end of May to decide whether he's for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Obama may have the nomination nearly locked up, but the view from Seymour, Ind. was grim: "Hillary Rodham Clinton's longshot bid to overtake Obama for the nomination suddenly seems not so far-fetched. But more clear, and sad, is the sense that this presidential race is now doomed to be mired in race, that Obama's promise to bridge racial divisions may be shattered.

"How did we get from point A to point B?" Mary Ann Pardieck, a law firm administrator and Obama supporter in Seymour, glumly asked Tuesday. "Point A was this wonderful, hopeful period around Iowa when it seemed like we could get beyond all that," she said. "Now we've progressed into this morass. The campaign has degenerated into these conversations I don't want to be having and which I don't think are helpful to the country."  More HERE.

Dean: Blame the FL pols, not me

DNC Chairman Howard Dean on Meet the Press sounded to us more sympathetic to Barack Obama's position - no way can Hillary Clinton net a bunch of delegates out of Fl's officially meaningless primary - than Clinton's count all the votes stance. Dean: "First, you've got to respect the voters. The voters of Michigan and Florida were not the people that screwed this all up. It was politicians. Secondly, you have to respect the candidates. They went in on a set of rules that everybody voted for, including Michigan and Florida, before they changed their mind, but -- and so you can't really change the rules and alter the course of the race. And thirdly, you got to respect the 48 states that did respect the rules."

Dean said he expects Michigan will have some say in the nomination ultimately, but there's no indication he has any more sway with members of the rules and bylaws committee taking up challenges from the states than he did with the Democrats who set primaries in FL and MI. He also brushed off criticism of his handling of MI and FL.

Did count-the-votes activist even vote?

From the print BUZZ: Palm Harbor marketing executive Jim Hannagan says he has spent nearly $10,000 of his own money leading FloridaDemandsRepresentation.org, mobilizing Democrats to demand that the national Democratic Party recognize the votes in Florida's officially meaningless Jan. 29 Democratic primary. He's helping organize rallies across Florida, including one in St. Petersburg on Saturday, and he will be among 10 busloads of ticked-off Floridians planning to picket the Democratic National Committee in Washington on Tuesday.

"We want to let the DNC know that Florida voters are not going to take this sitting down, and we want our votes to be counted," said Hannagan. "The rules of the few should never outweigh the votes of the millions."

Funny thing about that: Pinellas elections records suggest Hannagan didn't even bother voting Jan. 29. The records say he didn't request an absentee ballot, he didn't show up at an early voting site and he didn't vote at his Palm Harbor precinct on primary day.

Conflicts of interests on DNC rules panel?

UPDATE: Seems Katz is wrong on this, according to Karen Finney at the DNC. There is no prohibition on RBC members working on campaigns (Donna Brazile didn't step down while working for Al Gore), although Katz, the only Floridian on the panel, is right that he can't vote. The rules say a member can't vote on a challenge "arising in his or her own state."

So that's one less pro-Obama vote on the committee, but we're thinking it's somehow fitting that Florida's vote won't count on whether or not Florida's votes should count. Phil Singer at the Clinton campaign weighs in on the jump.

So now that the DNC’s rules and bylaws committee has agreed to consider a couple of appeals to reinstate Florida’s delegates to the national convention, accusations of conflict of interest are surfacing.

Rules committee member Allan Katz, a top Barack Obama fundraiser, says he may call on a couple prominent committee members, Harold Ickes and Tina Flournoy, to recuse themselves from the May 31 vote because they are working for the Hillary Clinton campaign.

"If your’e being paid that would normally be considered a conflict of interest,’’ said Katz, who said he may also be precluded from voting because he is a super-delegate directly effected by the decision. That would also eliminate Michigan Democratic party chairman Mark Brewer.

DNC to hear FL Dem appeals on May 31

Three days before the final voting in the Democratic primary, the DNC's rules and bylaws committee will take up Jon Ausman's challenges to the committee's stripping FL of all its delegates. The committee members will have an informal dinner in DC Friday, the 30th, and then take up the issue most of the next day.

Most nose counters think more RBC members are Clinton backers than Obama backers.

McCain HQ coming soon to Tallahassee

Anybody else struck by how John McCain has taken a looong time building a Florida campaign organization? He won the primary with barely any infrastructure in the must-win Sunshine state, and that hasn't changed.

In a few weeks, however, Buzz Jacobs will set up shop in Tallahassee, conveniently located close to Charlie Crist and his political team. Jacobs is McCain's former South Carolina state director and now is his regional director for the Southeastearn states.

Superdel Ausman:I'll declare when Dean does

From DNCer Jon Ausman: "DNC Chair Howard Dean has asked all the superdelegates to declare their preferences as soon as possible.  After Howard Dean announces his preference, I will think about making up my mind and announce mine.

"My choice will be based on the following three criteria:  one, which candidate is most likely to get 270 electoral votes and win the Presidency; two, which candidate will help us pick up US Senate seats; and, three, which candidate will help us pick up US Representative seats in the House."

On the jump we're pasting much of Ausman's latest mass e-mail, because he has a good a sense as anybody on what's doing with his challenges to get Fl delegates restored

Florida votes irrelevant?

Nearly 1.75-million Democrats voted in Florida's officially meaningless presidential primary, and it remains to be seen whether Florida will send any delegates to the national convention. But in this Twilight Zone of a campaign, a more cosmic question arises: Do the Florida votes actually exist?

In Barack Obama world the answer is no. Clinton's 295,000-vote victory margin in Florida is basically imaginary. The candidates chose not to campaign in the state, the argument goes, so the votes should be purged from the minds of any uncommitted superdelegate.

On planet Hillary Clinton, those Florida votes are as real as the White House itself. We cannot pretend a record turnout of voters never happened. More here.

Jeb: Yes on killing gators, no on VP

DALLAS (AP) — Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush says he is "light green" on the environment and is skeptical that humans are causing global warming. Bush, whose two terms ended in 2007, also said Wednesday he "can’t imagine" running for national office and isn’t interested in being Sen. John McCain’s running mate.

The younger brother of President George W. Bush made the comments during an address to several hundred business people meeting in a hotel ballroom. Earlier in the day, Bush met with other directors of Dallas-based Tenet Healthcare Corp., the hospital chain whose board he joined last year....

...Bush told the Texas audience how he repeatedly vetoed spending state money to market alligator meat. "Alligators proliferate in Florida. They eat small dogs," Bush said. "We don’t need to market them, we need to kill them." After a slight pause, he added, "Is this open to the press?"...

Picketing the DNC

Hundreds of activists from across Florida are planning to picket the Democratic National Committee next week, demanding that the DNC recognize the state's Jan. 29 primary and give Florida a say in the Democratic nomination. "It's Democats and Republicans saying how dare these parties decide what votes should count and what shouldn't.They may have a right to organize and create rules but what they cannot do is take away my right to have my vote count,'' said Millie Herrera, president of the Democratic Hispanic Caucus in Florida, who might find a judge or two who would disagree.

With funding from the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), some 10 busloads of picketers are expected in DC April 30, and Herrera insisted that it is not a pro-Clinton effort. The coalition of groups with the quaint notion that Democrats should want to count all the votes includes LULAC, the Hispanic caucus, the Florida Voter League, the Southern Leadership Council, and Florida Demands Representation.

The latest on FL's DNC appeals

Is the DNC's rules and bylaws committee going to finally step up and act on the pending appeals by Jon Ausman, arguing the rules require some of Florida's delegates be seated, or wait for the credentials committee in July or August?

Sen. Bill Nelson ain't optimistic: "They're just slow-walking this thing, they're dragging it out. There's been no leadership to try to resolve this issue going back to last August, and as a result we are where we are, so nothing's going to be done until basically you have a winner."

But Ausman, after venting the other day, says he's talked to "a lot of people" familiar with the matter and now thinks Florida will get a hearing in about six weeks: "I think the rules and bylaws committee is going to try to handle this before it gets to the credentials committee,'' he said.

Plouffe: Clinton blocking FL resolution

Barack Obama campaign manager David Plouffe today on the Florida/Michigan delegate mess: "We think the fairest outcome again is a splitting of the delegates 50/50, which would allow them to be seated but we're listening to other proposals. But the Clinton campaign seems to be not in favor of any resolution except for the most extreme one, and I don't think a fair reading of that would suggest that's a  good outcome. We're the party now that's most interested in some resolution. The Clinton campaign simply wants the results of those contests to be ratified, and they're not going to be...."

Nelson: 8-point Hillary win is "blowout"

On Morning Joe, Bill Nelson said the DNC has "slapped Florida around enough now" and responded to whether Hillary Clinton should consider dropping out if Barack Obama gets within 5 points in today's PA primary.

NELSON: "There will be pressure for her to do that. But if her win is 8 to 10 points, it's a blowout. And she's going to have new life."

Obama'$ 52,000 FL donors

Here's what the campaign reports through 3/31. Impressive:

$9,138,833. 52,173 donors. 96,292 contributions. March: 17,905 donors. 22,320 contributions. 94% under $200.

Obama's electability questions

Let's step back from convention wisdom that says Hillary Clinton must beat Barack Obama huge today. Is it so silly to expect that Obama — all but anointed as the inevitable nominee, campaigning full throttle and outspending Clinton more than 2-to-1 in Pennsylvania — should win a primary in a crucial swing state? Is it naive to think that the likely Democratic nominee should not struggle to win over Democrats in big states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida?

"Clearly it's going to be awfully hard for him to win some of those big states that Hillary Clinton's won,'' said Clinton supporter and former Tampa Mayor Sandy Freedman, noting Obama's difficulty in winning over working-class white voters. "After you've spent I don't know how many tens of million of dollars, you've had 21 debates, and you've targeted those voters and aren't winning them, what does it say about your chances in November?"

Florida is a trickier question, as neither candidate campaigned in the state. But show me a candidate struggling to win over Hispanic voters and Jewish voters, as Obama has, and I see someone with dubious prospects in the Sunshine State. More here.

DNC stalling FL, hoping Clinton drops out?

STORY HERE: "There’s obviously a stall going on. .... They’re treating Florida worse than their own dog,’’ said Jon Ausman of Tallahassee, who five weeks ago filed two appeals with the Democratic National Committee’s rules and bylaws committee, arguing that the committee overstepped its authority in stripping away all of Florida’s delegates to the national convention.

For weeks, Ausman said he has been unable to get calls returned the prominent co-chairs of that committee, Alexis Herman and Jim Roosevelt, or any word on how the committee will proceed. Either they want to wait until a candidate drops out of the race or don’t want to admit they made a mistake in punishing Florida so severely for setting a primary earlier than the DNC allowed, Ausman said.

Veepstakes: Gov. Sanford smacks Gov. Crist

From the Wall Street Journal: "..."Even in the insurance crisis with hurricanes . . . we very much disagreed with the . . . Charlie Crist model [which makes the state an insurer of last resort]. Basically the taxpayer is going to be zapped in the long run in that model, when the next storm hits. . . . We said, No, let's rely on private markets and let's look for ways to attract private capital to our state. One of the most interesting features in [our reform] was hurricane savings accounts. To say look, if you just flat out hate insurance companies and think they're ripping you off and don't like the way that they're pricing risk, take the risk yourself. . . . That's why, in fact, we put in a provision here with hurricane savings accounts, where if you want to tuck money aside, tax free from the state standpoint – we can't do anything about the feds – from a state standpoint, go for it."

McCain's top FL money bags

George W. Bush had his Rangers and Pioneers, and John McCain has his "Innovators" (who have raised at least $250,000)  and "trailblazers" (at least $100,000). Among the Arizona senator's top bundlers, here are the Floridians:

At least $250,000: Brian Ballard, Tallahassee; Manuel Kadre, Miami; John Moran, Palm Beach; Scott Rothstein, Fort Lauderdale. At least $100,000: Charles Cobb, Jr., Miami; John Dasburg, Miami; John Donahue, Naples; Marty Fiorentino, Ponte Vedra Beach; Alfred Hoffman, Jr., Fort Myers; Harry Sargeant, III, Gulf Stream; Glenn Steil, Sr., Bonita Springs

Ron Paul supporters bullied -- again!

An ongoing spat between supporters of Republican presidential candidates John McCain and Ron Paul flared again Thursday, when pro-Paul dissidents were kicked out of a Pasco County GOP Executive Committee meeting.

Sofie Lefebvre, a Paul supporter, said a sheriff’s deputy escorted her and her husband out of the Land O’Lakes Senior Center, where the meeting was held.

“It’s this little nasty game going on,” Lefebvre said. “This isn’t America where you don’t let your own people into meetings. This is absolute fascism.”

McCain headed to Tampa

Sen. John McCain is scheduled to visit Florida for a fundraiser April 29 at 11:30 a.m. at the Grand Hyatt in downtown Tampa. Meanwhile, Hillsborough County Republicans at their executive committee meeting on Tuesday discussed the need for volunteers to work in phone banks, knock on doors and recruit voters at gun shows. David Storck, chairman of the Hillsborough County Republican Party, told the group the Republican Party of Florida wants to see McCain beat the Democratic presidential nominee in Hillsborough by 55,000 votes to off-set voters on what he called the "left coast" of southeast Florida. George Bush beat John Kerry in Hillsborough by 37,000 votes in 2004, according to Storck.

Obama camp scoffs at Hillary on FL

re: Clinton's St. Pete Times interview:

"Senator Clinton has proven that she will say or do anything to win and, in this case, is saying something that is flatly not true. If Clinton truly cared about the Michigan and Florida delegations being represented at the convention, she'd support efforts to resolve this matter today with an even split of the delegates. While she continues to play politics, we'll continue to work to achieve a fair resolution," said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.

Hillary: Count Florida's votes!

In an exclusive interview with the St. Petersburg Times, Clinton offered her most extensive remarks on the delegate problem and pushed back at the Democratic National Committee's philosophy of having the campaigns approve a settlement.

"I don't think it's up to Sen. (Barack) Obama or me to dictate any resolution. I think it's up to the DNC to decide how to proceed, and I would hope that it would do so recognizing what's at stake,'' Clinton said in the interview late Sunday. "It would be tragic if we came out of this process ignoring the will of 1.7-million Floridians, setting us up for a very unhappy electorate in the fall, giving Republicans this incredible argument they could make against us." 

Story here. Transcript here with an audio snippet.

FL poll: McCain crushes Obama, not Clinton

Rasmussen robo poll: McCain 53%, Obama 38%... McCain 44%, Clinton 45%.

Forget Rubio running for mayor

House speaker Marco Rubio won't run for Miami-Dade mayor - "even though he would win," predicted FIU's Dario Moreno on a panel for the Florida Political Science Association meeting in St. Pete today. Moreno happens to do polling for Rubio.

Moderated by USF's Susan MacManus, the panel included Moreno, USF-St. Pete's Darryl Paulson, UCF's Aubrey Jewett, and yours truly. Among the consensus conclusions: Hillary Clinton would be a stronger candidate in FL than Barack Obama; Charlie Crist is unlikely to get tapped for VP; Democrats will pick up a few legislative seats (though Moreno predicted Luis Garcia will lose his). Three out of four guessed that John McCain will be the next POTUS.