Oil supply dropping as consumption grows.

So, oil prices are coming down, but how far and for how long?
Prices are unlikely to go back to $40 a barrel where they were two years ago, analysts say. That's principally because of a fundamental shift in control of global oil resources, with a reduced role for the ''Big Five.''

"The scope of the supply problem became more clear in the latest quarter when the five biggest publicly traded oil companies, including Exxon Mobil, said their oil output had declined by a total of 614,000 barrels a day ... the steepest of five consecutive quarters of declines," The New York Times reports today.

That may not seem like a big drop out of the 86 million barrels of oil consumed globally each day. But markets are tighter than ever, so even a small drop can cause a big shift in prices. Furthermore, global demand for oil is expected to expand by 800,000 barrels a day, mostly because of rising demand in China , India and the Middle East.

The only good news lately is the rising potential of new oil finds in Brazil.

- David Adams