Fla. wildlife & climate change: What's the outlook?

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission kicked off a summit meeting in Orlando today called “Florida Wildlife: On the front line of climate change” that drew experts from around the country. One of the first items on the agenda was a speech by Virginia Burkett of the U.S. Geological Survey.

“Over the next 50 years, according to the models, South Florida will see a high increase in temperatures, but unlike the rest of the southeastern United States, it will also see increasing drought conditions,” said Burkett, who was a lead author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize (but not the Oscar) with Al Gore.

“This is an accelerating trend, but we are not helpless, Burkett said. "There are things we can do now through mitigation and adaptation.”  She offered a to-do list of 10 ways to deal with the challenge, such as performing prescribed burns and controlling and preventing invasive species.

If you're wondering about the carbon footprint of the climate change summit, an FWC press release notes: "The Center for Environmental Studies at Florida Atlantic University will calculate carbon dioxide emissions from the energy used at the summit, as well as from travel. Energy use will be translated to dollars to pay for native tree planting in protected parks and wildlife refuges across the nation."

[Photo: NASA]

--Craig Pittman

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[brian]

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON NAMIBIA'S PROTECTED AREAS

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), on behalf of the Namibian Ministry of Environment and Tourism (MET) is in support of Strengthening the Protected Area Network (SPAN) Project.
First World Business Consultants is in search for a(n) expert(s) to contract on this short term work. The services of the consultant(s) are needed early in 2009. It is expected that this project will take approximately four months.Deadline for proposal submission to this assunment is 31 December 2008

The selected consultant(s) must demonstrate capabilities and experience to conduct an assessment of climate change in relation to protected areas and recommend possible responses and the evaluation of factors that make up such interventions. The successful consultant(s) must also have proven ability to finish and present work with a high degree of accuracy. The consultant(s) or team leader must have at least a Masters Degree or equivalent specialist work experience in the field of climate change.Deadline for proposal submission to this assunment is 31 December 2008.

There is on preliminery budget estimated for this work but it is still flexible. We would therefore like you send a proposal in a way you think the job can be done. If you would prefer, you could suggest
different options with different prices. There is no set format for a proposal, however technical proposal should clarify methodology and rationale, as well as activities and personnel involved. A financial
proposal should contain a detailed breakdown. With regards to the timeframe, we would like this work to be finalised by mid year next year(around June/July2009). Deadline for proposal submission is 31
December 2008

Applicants should provide clear, specific evidence of their background, qualifications and experience which are exclusively relevant to climate change scenarios, impacts and vulnerability assessments as well as a proposal outlining how they propose to undertake the project, the process and timeframes and a quote to complete the work.Deadline for proposal submission to this assunment is 31 December 2008

Background
Namibia lies at the heart of the species-rich Namib-Karoo-Kaokoveld Desert Ecoregion (WWW Global 200Ecoregions). The country also has two globally significant “biodiversity hotspots”; namely the Sperrgebiet and Namib Escarpment. It has a high level of endemism and is an evolutionary hub for groups of organisms like melons, succulent plants, solifuges, geckos and tortoises. Namibia’s conservation efforts have made the country the stronghold for populations of mega fauna such as black rhinoceros (almost a third of the world population) and cheetah. The country has established an impressive system of Protected Areas (PAs), managed by the State, which constitutes a cornerstone of its conservation programme. This system comprises 20 national PAs, covering 17% of the terrestrial area (140,394 km2). In addition, fifty community-managed conservancies covers more than 118,704 km2. The national PAs contribute significantly to the national economy, with PA tourism accounting for 3-6 percent of the country’s GDP. It is expected that an increased annual spending on PAs by the Namibian Government would generates a positive rate of return of 32%. The Strengthening the Protected Area Network (SPAN) project is a 6-year project that officially started in 2006. It is a project of the MET, housed within the Directorate of Parks and Wildlife Management (DPWM) which is charged with management of the national PA network. The project is funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) through the UNDP. The SPAN Project’s goal is the sustainable management of renewable natural resources and protecting biodiversity while contributing to equitable economic and social development. The direct objective of the project is to improve management effectiveness of Namibia’s state

PAs for biodiversity conservation
Climate change is the greatest environmental challenge facing the world today. Since the industrial revolution human activities have compounded natural climate change by increasing carbon emissions into the atmosphere. This legacy has produced an unprecedented rise in average global temperature. Rising temperatures will bring changes in weather patterns, rising sea levels and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather. Although Namibia is considered a minor producer of greenhouse gases, it will be affected by these gases with respect to climate in the future. Namibia has therefore, in its national interest, decided to place more emphasis on its vulnerability to the effects of climate change and the adaptation actions that it needs to take to prevent and/or reduce the negative impacts of such effects. It is important to note that the southern part of Namibia is considered a transition zone, where climate models project different future conditions. The 1998 Climate Change Country Study identified seven areas or sectors where Namibia is most vulnerable to climate change. These include water resources, marine resources, agriculture, biodiversity ecosystems, coastal zones and systems, health and energy. The Initial National Communication was able to further define the degrees of vulnerability of each of these sectors or areas. It further identified the level of resources required to pre-empt or adapt to potential negative effects1.
Furthermore, the impact of climate change is likely to be widespread in Namibia’s biodiversity conservation and wildlife management sector, as well as in associated tourism and wildlife products industries. Flooding is likely to increase, droughts and desertification will spread, wildlife, habitats and ecosystems could be badly affected. Biodiversity conservation and wildlife management strategies using the PAs as a cornerstone will need to have viable mitigation measures to reduce carbon emissions and also practical and cost effective adaptation measures to prepare for the unavoidable impacts already stored up in the climate system. These measures aim to ensure the long-term sustainability of the conservation outcomes and to safeguard associated social and economic benefits which the PA system brings to the country.

Scope
This study focuses on 1) Vulnerability of wildlife to climate change in Namibia and effectiveness of the current PA network in safeguarding wildlife populations and biodiversity under different climate change scenarios; and 2) Economic impacts of climate change-ascribed wildlife and biodiversity losses on sectors dependent on wildlife resources such as tourism and game products industries. The study will include 4 landscape level case study sites, each of which includes a national PA(s).

Specific Tasks
The consultant/s will be expected to assess the impact of climate change on Namibia’s PAs. In particular four protected landscape conservation areas shall be selected as case study sites representing a range of Namibian ecosystems, from wetlands in the north, woodlands in the centre, desert along the coast and arid lands in the south. Each site will contain at least one national PA and the study will aim to review the effectiveness of the PAs within each protected landscape conservation area in sustaining wildlife population and biodiversity as well as examining development options in the face of climate change. In each case and overall the following factors shall be identified:
1. Summarise the existing literature and known information with regard to climate change projections in
protected areas and in Namibia 2. Identify the obvious information and knowledge gaps in Namibia in relation to climate change and climate change in protected areas 3. Identify the impacts and risks of climate change to these ecosystems i.e. species extinction, fire, weed
spread, increased drought or flooding 4. Identify the degree/extent that these impacts and risks may have on the ecosystem in the short, medium and long term 5. Conduct a sensitivity analysis of wildlife, flora and fauna, habitats and water resources to different levels of climate change risk using the best fitting global climate change models and estimate in quantitative terms what this will mean for a) land productivity in terms of ecosystem integrity and b) game productivity. 6. Highlight the potential ecological impact of these factors on the protected area i.e. species extinction 7. Identify the social and economic costs of these changes on the protected area system including loss of economic benefits associated with PA tourism 8. Assess social and economic costs for 1) failure to adapt (the default situation) and 2) adaptation options 9. Identify methods and interventions for how the impacts and risk of climate change can be avoided, remedied or mitigated, including the ecological, social and economic value of these interventions 10. Identify indicators and methods for measuring the extent of climate change impact on Namibia’s protected areas 11. Quantify the existing carbon sequestration (millions of tonnes CO2) that results from each case study site and all protected areas in Namibia 12. Identify the opportunities for protected areas to sequester or off-set further carbon emissions and obtain revenue from such activities 13. The consultancy should provide recommendation about the interventions, procedures and institutional arrangements required for climate change considerations, including adaptation measures so that they are further enhanced and accounted for in protected area policies and management.
To inform this process a separate literature review will also be required. This will need to focus on the impact of climate change in protected areas and the impact of climate change in Namibia and the region.

Outputs:
The key outcomes from this consultancy will be 1) a literature review on the impact of climate change in a)protected areas and b) on Namibia and in the region; 2) A report scoping and assessing the impact of climate in Namibia’s protected areas, identifying their vulnerability, providing specific vulnerability indicators, determining the economic and social costs associated with adaptation and making adaptation recommendations on key policy and management interventions as response measures to be adopted; 3) A colour, A1, poster that explains the ecological, social and economic impact of climate change on Namibia’s protected areas and some of the management interventions that may be needed to mitigate these impacts; 4) A map of Namibia indicating location of case study areas (selected 4 sites); 5) A 5-10 pages policy summary report comprising key messages from the vulnerability assessment which should include: i) model agreement – yes or no ii) direction/magnitude of changes ii) primary and secondary impacts iv) impacts that are not possible to model and why v) interaction with non-climate stressors; 6) A power point presentation targeted to national and regional politicians and policy-makers .

Potential references:
Dunne, N., 2003. Global warming- tracking, the effects of climate change on plants. Plant and Garden News 18 (3): 1 - 4
Engelbrecht, A.; Golding, A; Hietkamp, s. and Scholes, B, 2004. The potential for sequestration of carbon
dioxide in South Africa. Contract Report 86DD/HT33W9. CSIR, Pretoria
Friedenthal, J.; Kristiansen, T. And Malmdorf, T., 2004. Kyoto protocol carbon trading opportunities for
municipalities in South Africa to develop revenue generating CDM Projects. Technical Papers, Paper B.
IMESA Conference, Shorten Publications
Mills, A.; O?Connor, T.; Skowno, A.; De Wet, B.; Donalson, J.; Lechmere-Oertel, R. and Sigwela, A., 2003.
Farming for carbon credits: implications for land use decisions in South Africa Rangelands. Proceedings of the 7th International Rangelands Congress. Durban, 26th July to 01st August
Grwambi, B., undated. Carbon Sequestration and Trading: An Opportunity for Farmers and Landowners to Earn Additional Income. Principal Agricultural Economist, Department of Agriculture Western Cape.
Bomhard, B., Richardson, D.M., Donaldson, J.S., Hughes, G.O., Midgley, G.F., Raimondo, D.C., Rebelo,
A.G., Rouget, M. & Thuiller,W. (2005) Potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the Red List status of the Proteaceae in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa. Global Change Biology, 11:1452-1468
Ministry of Environment and Tourism (2002) Namibia's Initial National Communication on Climate Change to the United Nations, Windhoek, Namibia.
Midgley, G.F., Hannah, L., Millar, D., Thuiller, W. & Booth A. (2003) Developing regional and species-level assessments of climate change impacts on biodiversity: A preliminary study in the Cape Floristic Region.
Biological Conservation 112:87-97
Midgley, G.F., Hannah, L., Millar, D., Rutherford, M.C. & Powrie, L.W. (2002) Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot. Global Ecology and Biogeography
11:445-451
Midgley, G.F. 1, Chapman, R.A. 2, Hewitson, B. 3, Johnston, P. 3, de Wit, M. 4,Ziervogel, G. 3, Mukheibir, P.
5, van Niekerk, L. 2, Tadross, M. 3, van Wilgen, B.W. 2, Kgope, B. 1, Morant, P.D. 2, Theron, A. 2, Scholes, R.J. 6, Forsyth, G.G. 2 (2005) A Status Quo, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of the Physical and Socio-economic Effects of Climate Change in the Western Cape. Report to the Western Cape Government, Cape Town, South Africa. CSIR Report No. ENV-S-C 2005-073, Stellenbosch
Department of Environmental Affairs and Development Planning,Western Cape, (in Prep), A climate change strategy and action plan for the Western Cape, Cape Town, South Africa
South Africa?s Initial National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, ISBN No. 0-9584773-1-0.

Factbox
Namibia is about to proclaim the 26,000 km² Sperrgebiet National Park, increasing Namibia’s PA coverage to about 17% of its surface area. Much of the Sperrgebiet falls under the succulent Karoo biome, one of the world’s few arid biodiversity hotspots. The Sperrgebiet means “forbidden area” in German and has been off limits to the public as a national diamond mining concession area. SPAN Project has assisted with preparing a solid foundation for the new park. This includes development of park management, business, and tourism plans and with a co-management mechanism with stakeholders such as the mining and fishery sectors.
National Parks, National Wildlife Refuges, and other protected areas harbor unique environments and wildlife not found elsewhere. This raises particular concerns about the vulnerability of these ecosystems to a changing climate. Many parks and refuges are designated to protect rare natural features or particular species of plants and animals. Changes in climate could create new stresses on natural communities, and, in the absence of adaptation, lead to the loss of valued resources.

Yours Sincerely,

Brian Gamanya
First World Business Consultants Namibia
C/o Green Bay Magazine
www.fwbcnam.blogspot.com
Email: green-bay@in.com
Tel: +264 81 3565325
8 Avocet Street
Hochland Pack
Pelican Square
Windhoek
Namibia