Can the Lightning make the playoffs?

This might be simply an academic exercise, but with the All-Star break over and team's getting ready for the final push, was curious what the chances of the Lightning making the playoffs. I know, the task is huge, and I might not even have brought it up had the team been double digits out of the final spot in the East heading into the break. But since Tampa Bay got it down to nine points with a 9-5-1 run, well, what the heck?

Recall, too, how the Capitals went nuts to finish last season, winning 11 of 12 and their final seven to overcome a seven-point deficit to the Hurricanes and win the Southeast.

So, let's do the math:

The Hurricanes are eighth in the East and, with 51 points, have the conference's final playoff spot. If it goes 17-17 in its final 34 games, it will finish with 85 points. That means Tampa Bay, 12th with 42 points, would have to go 22-13 in its final 35 games to reach 86. And that doesn't even take into consideration what the team between Tampa Bay and Carolina are doing, which means the Lightning might have to do even better.

Quite a daunting task.

But let's give some credit here. Tampa Bay has won five of seven and has bought into coach Rick Tocchet's "play as five" system. Preparation is better and, perhaps most important, the team is playing with confidence. And even though the team's seven home victories are a league low, Tampa Bay is 3-1 at home to start a stretch in which it plays 13 of 17 at the St. Pete Times Forum. So perhaps the stars are aligning  a little bit.

We'll know Tuesday night at the Times Forum, where Tampa Bay has a tough test against the Canadiens. A huge game as it sets up Thursday's game at Carolina. A win and that game is even bigger. Lose and, well, maybe the All-Star break took some wind out of their sails. You would hope that would not be the case. You would hope the players understand the position they are in and the opportunity, however remote, they have given themselves.

Tocchet is doing his best. He had an up-tempo practice on Monday and pushed the players who have been off since Wednesday. Even Vinny Lecavalier, given the option to take the day off after returning from the All-Star Game in Montreal, wanted to skate.

Tocchet also spoke of mini goals, cutting the season up into five-, three- or two-game segments and trying to win those in order to keep the focus short term. Take care of that, he said, and the long term will take care of itself.

But he also had a warning.

"The thing the players have to understand," he said, "is that in the second half, everybody pushes harder."

Has Tampa Bay solved its problems? Of course not. Opponents still pin the team in its own end way too much and for way to long. The defense still needs upgrades, secondary scoring still surprises when it shows up and seven home wins in a league low.

The again, "This is what it's all about," goaltender Mike Smith said, "making  a push for the playoffs and guys elevating their games to new levels. If everybody does that and worries about themselves and gives great effort, I think you'll see us there in the end."

Let's see what they can do.

Comments

[Hockey Chic]

Morning all,

Well since PD was the last to comment, I for one cannot let that little barb go. I have to say I was holding my breath after the first period. We had a whole row of habs fans right behind us and they stayed for the whole game.

It was indeed a delight to see smitty have the great game he had and the rest of the fellas what can we say. Excellent way to come back together after the all star break and get a win. Against the Habs...

On to the next one PD. Lets get ready for the short away trip with the Canes and then back for the flyers.

To the Berlin wall crew, sorry I did not make it down there too much catching up to do upstairs. Will definitly see you sat as sitting down low. Not sure where yet but I will see you then.

Go Bolts!! What a great team effort....

[Patrick]

PD/Ignatz,

The only strange thing about this blog to me is that it is a Lightning blog is that a few fans from other teams read it and express amazement that the team has devoted fans.

[hockeytalkie]

.

[2WayCenter]

One down.

[Mike13]

Ignatz, we agree on one thing. This blog is f'ed up.

Re: your other post, we may not have a statistical chance of making the playoffs, but that's okay. We want to see good hockey games, and the rest will take care of itself.

I'm not an OK Hockey cool-aid drinker, but to be fair and objective, they have made a few massive mistakes (Boyle, Melrose, and Picard are probably the worst) they have also made some pretty darn good moves. Malone, although a bit expensive was still a pretty good pickup. Re-acquiring Prospal was a good move too. As was having the good sense to ditch Melrose. Eminger has turned out to be a very good pickup.

No, it's not all roses. But, considering how badly this team played last year (all year), any kind of improvement is a blessing. At this point, it's looking like things are moving in the right direction.

Besides, we don't want Tavares. We want Hedman. Our problem is defense.

[Joe Bolts]

Simple.Just like the negative,single-minded drivel you spout on this blog.

[Joe Bolts]

Simple.Just like the negative,single-minded drivel you spout on this blog.

[ignatz]

BTW, this blog is f---ed up.

[ignatz]

Ya gotta love these posts. Most of you are in a fantasy league, hence your affinity for just OK Hockey. Believe it--Bolts won't make playoffs nor will they get one of the first two overall picks for an instant star. This ownership only screwed things up 80 percent of the way...at least if they screwed it completely, Bolts could get Tavares.

[hockeytalkie]

like i said the other day, if it's as entertaining as the last meeting between them down here was i won't care.

but i'll go out on the limb and say bolts 3-2 -maybe 4 if they hit the empty net.

[Coach Bill]

check

[Coach Bill]

Right on Talkie. Sure would be nice to meet Patrick and The Brit. Brit - hope you're not still mad at me from last week. I'm trying to make it up to you. Really. Bring Stacey. See ya tonight.

[Mike13]

Leo, the Bolts 4-2. Kovalev is flying high though, with all his success at the ASG (starter, Captain, MVP). Our hope is that it doesn't translate into his play tonight.

[Mike13]

CB, TWG, are we on for Friday's game against the Flyers?

[leo]

So.
Who's winnin' tonight?
Call the score.
P.

[PD]

"If we can beat the Habs tonight, the Canes on Thursday and then the Flyers on Friday, I think I will be able to see light at the end of the tunnel".

That's the bar alright Brit.
Simple

[Randy C]

For me to view this season as salvaged they guys have to continue to improve thier play like they have been steadily since around christmas. There is little room for any setbacks if they are to make the playoffs. That being said you never know what the other teams are going to do. That is why they play the games, isn't it? If they continue to improve the way they have, they'll be, at least, a team capable of beating anyone on a given night. One game at a time, Go Bolts

[Oscar]

Of course, common horse sense dictates the math is stacked high against any post season hopes. A club that chronically underachieves and plays like extras in the new movie “Bad News Slapshot Takes their SAW and Goes to Japan” deserves no place in the playoff pecking order.

Playoffs? Not happening. Until recently it seemed like they were celebrating having no more Mama Tortorella and could goof off and play grabass from September to February, then be shocked they get groin injuries and don’t get ‘let in’ the play offs.
“Every stinking shift”: You think I was horse-bleeping around?

We can’t play like the Islanders of the South (at least they have a Brendan Witt helping out DiPietro’s replacement) and expect others to not load up against us. An incalculable percentage of our wins this year resulted in other clubs taking the night off because they were playing the Tampa Bay Dolts and thought they could just lay back and wait for us to take the given slack and hang ourselves with only twenty minutes of effort.

However, if you have a Marty St. Louis on your club, you can be optimistic. I was cautiously hopeful against Washington in the ’03 playoffs, when this #26 guy started potting shorthanded and overtime goals past Kolzig. He reminded me of that T-shirt with the frog gripping the bird by the neck instead of letting itself be eaten. Next season it was “Safe is Death” and the rest is history.

Employ solid fundamentals. Go hard, go as a cohesive unit---a core of Twenty---and I’ll feel a lot better about getting decent calls from the officials next season. Perhaps Mr. Koules can bring in a yoga instructor to work in concert with the weight guy and help with the flexibility and overall physical resilience?

Every year I trot out the old phrase from football’s John Madden: when asked how his clubs came out roaring in the second half of games after a lackluster first half. He said he didn't know if it helped, but told them,
“NEVER MIND ABOUT THE HORSE BEING BLIND.
JUST GO OUT AND LOAD THE WAGON!”

Go Bolts! Load that wagon!

[hockeytalkie]

any chance we'll have a Brittany or Patrick sighting tonight at the 114 berlin wall? or more importantly, on feb 7th at TWG's establishment for happy hour.

[Joe]

i think the advantage the Bolts have is no pressure. The pressure on the Penguins is huuuuuuge to make the playoffs. The bolts dont have that kinda pressure.

Im also not sold on Carolina. I think we have 3 games left against them those are 3 must win games.

As long as the bolts make a run at the spot id be happy with everything thats gone on this year.

[Brittany]

Also wanted to add that if we can make a push here and are just in the playoff talks at the end of the season, they need to make Toc the head coach and remove that interim title. So far I think he has risen to the challenge and gotten the team to buy into what he is selling. To be able to win against the Sabres who were coming in at 7-2 and who always seem to dominate us, with the defense he had to work with, was pretty darn amazing. If he can get them to keep it up, I say make him coach and let him have a full season, with a real training camp, to see what he can do. They also need to try and make sure they keep Sullivan here. He has been a huge help I think.

[Brittany]

Even if the team just makes a push, it will be huge for them and the fans. To be competitive with our patchwork defense these last few games has been a miracle. Considering where we started, with the 3 ring circus in Melrose here and the over seas trip and everything that was stacked against us, any kind of run would be worth it whether we make the playoffs or not. The best part of this whole deal is that none of the teams who are in front of us have been playing great hockey. It shouldn't be a problem to over take the Leafs and Pit just hasn't looked very good this year. If we can get it down to us, the Panthers, and the Canes (boy, won't Canada be upset with 3 Southeast Division teams fighting for a playoff spot!?) we have a chance. And to finish that way, after our terrible start, would be worth it. If they can get hot here and go on a nice run, there is a chance. I also think we probably have the easiest schedule left out of everyone else with so many of these games at home and playing some pretty bad teams. If we can beat the Habs tonight, the Canes on Thursday and then the Flyers on Friday, I think I will be able to see light at the end of the tunnel.

Go Bolts!

[Hockey Chic]

PD,

You make my day when I sign on and see your pessimistic comments throughout this blog. Again I say to you why do you not take your drivel else where?

I am not looking past the game tonight. The playoffs are not something this team should be looking at either. Lets just get another win and another one and on from there.

How many times have teams lost focus from looking ahead. One at a time fellas. Will be there tonight see you at the glass. See the rest of you at 114 during first and second period.

Go Bolts..

[Patrick]

Boltflasher - agreed, .500 hockey the rest the way with this defense and this season would be a triumph to me. The playoffs would just be icing on the cake.

[Patrick]

PD,

I mentioned the leaves because as bad as you make things sound for the lightning, it's been much worse for the leaves, and they are further behind than the lightning at this point. Yet when you and your echo talk about the leaves, nothing but sunshine, kisses, and burkie-burkie-burkie salvation, just around the corner! And you act like everyone here is delusional?

Besides, have you forgotten about your Bettman southern states strategy? When you said that's why the bolts won a cup? If Bettman can fix a stanley cup series, then I imagine he can pull whatever other strings necessary to keep the bolts and Vinny here.

[Max Hunter]

Can;t we just say, Go Bolts, and then smile?

Go Bolts!

:)

Max

[Boltflasher]

Agree 80+ points would be a decent showing after all they and the fans have been through...

[PD]

Leanmean 43, even if Tampa were to perfect storm it the 2nd half, they would still get euchered by all the 3 point games played by teams ahead in the standings. That's why the math doesn't work.

Talkie, finishing with 80 points would be a helluva year. That's also where I think I said they would finish when everyone made their predictions.

[PD]

LeanMean/Patrick, roll them bones baby.
3% shot. Double up while you are at it.

Patrick what have the Leafs got to do with any thing?

They have Brian Burke now, youth, money (lotsa) , time , cap space and a plan which sure didn't include making the playoffs this year. The kids also play fast, entertaining non trap hockey every night.

Somehow I don't think he is concerned about dropping a spot or two into a lottery pick position..

[hockeytalkie]

after that melrose circus and mid season training camp, i feel cheated and just want my money's worth the rest of the way. of course i WANT them to reach the playoffs, but anything over .500 this year will be a great accomplishment given what they were given as guidance early on. no such "free-pass" for 2009-10 in my book though. i don't care injuries decimate the team and a "cat 5" hurricane hits TB.

not sure if that opinion makes me a pessimist or a realist.

[Patrick]

PD/Ignatz,

The lightning made the playoffs in 2007 (which is more recently than the leaves have) and in 2008 got the 1st overall pick in Stamkos - your TSN website is absolutely raving about him. If you didn't see my post on it a couple threads back, I'd be happy to post it again. This year looks like the lightning are going to finish ahead of the leaves again, who are on their way down while the lightning are on their way up. The lightning have also won a cup within the last 50 or so years.

Don't throw stones from a glass house?

Again, the only math that matters in sports is when your team has been mathematically eliminated.

[Leanmean43]

PD,
Carolina and Pittsburgh both have pretty tough schedules and they've both been around .500 teams most of the season. DC pointed out if Carolina went .500 the rest of they way they'd finish with 85 points, and I don't see Carolina finishing more than 1 or 2 games over .500 for the second half in the best case scenario for them. If the lightning can win the three meetings against those two teams it is possible. Remember the Lightning have owned Pittsburgh the last few seasons sweeping them the last few years except last year, and the Bolts usually beats Carolina too. Everything will have to go right, but it's not impossible by any stretch.

[Vincenator]

PD you are pessimistic as crap.

[PD]

Ajax loves his OK Hockey. I give him that.

The enemy though is just math , it's almost unbeatable.

All 3 of Pitt, Fla and Carolina would have to have catastrophic collapses and the Bolts would have to sail the rest of the way, almost at .750 on the shoulders of their great defence.

Someones already done the math:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/easternstandings.html

3 in a 100 shot.

[Tallahassee Mike]

DC, you should note that we have 3 games left against the Hurricanes. If we are working under the assumption that the Lightning can beat them out for the final playoff spot, then it should be fair to assume that to do so, the Lightning must win all three of those games. Therefore, subtract 6 points from the differential and 3 games overall; this leaves us 3 points out with 32 games to play, the Canes with 31. Now let's assume we win that game in hand. We're now one point out with 31 games to play. So we have to get one more point than Carolina.

Not quite as daunting of a task. However, if the Bolts lose any of the games against the Canes, then it get more difficult. However, if they can't beat Carolina head to head, how can we even begin to argue that the have any right to beat them out for a playoff spot?

[ignatz]

And they've done real well in 2007, 2008,and 2009 haven't they ajax? No reason for any negativity unless you subscribe to higher standards. A 16-31 record is just stellar to your way of thinking.

[ajax]

When the Lightning go 5-9-1, I lose sleep, but still enjoy going to the game and watching the boys play. When they go 9-5-1 (with a severely patchwork D) It really makes me smile. Still, some of you just write horrible stuff day in and day out. The same thoughts in 2007, then 2008, and now 2009. The names have just changed, but the dialogue never ceases with the negative. Not fans, not even critics (see, ya shouldn't be criticizing when things are good) Still amazes me how negative some can be when things are just looking good. What's the saying??? Won't be happy until miserable. Will always have a tough time digesting that thought process. I tend to enjoy the sunshine in the summer and stay away from complaining about the rain.

[Leanmean43]

I think the Lightning can still make the playoffs but the defense is going to have to stay healthy the rest of season. I think they can make it because it doesn’t look like they are going to need the usually 94 points to get in. Carolina is on pace for 87 points and their schedule looks pretty difficult the rest of the way. Florida is on pace for 89 points, and they usually choke every year. Pittsburgh is on pace for 85 points and they have a really tough schedule the rest of the way. The Lightning by far have the easiest schedule of those competing for the final spot, the bolts still play the Islanders 3 times, Pittsburgh 3 times, Toronto 3 times, Atlanta 3 times, and Ottawa 2 times. The Bolts play mostly teams that are non playoff teams in the second half which should make it possible. It will still be tough task but it may only take 90 points to get into the playoffs maybe even high 80’s.

[Boltflasher]

I blogged about this a few days ago. If they continue at the 9-5-1 rate they are currently on, they'll end up with about 91 to 92 points which may be enough, but more likely just a tad short...but at least the run will be enjoyable and give hope that, yes, they may only be a couple of defensive signings away....

[Joe]

I just want the bolts to have a winning record in the 3nd half to buld some momentum into next year. If they get into the playoffs so be it!!