Most Troubling Media Trend of 2005

On the eve of a new year, let me present the media trend/story I found most troubling in 2005...

Number One: The Ongoing Shrinkage of the Newspaper Industry

Newspaper companies shed more than 2,000 jobs in 2005, one of the worst years in memory for the industry. Even executives who once tried casting job cuts as fat trimmming couldn't avoid the certain knowledge that these reductions hampered newsgathering capabilities.

The Chicago Tribune closed its City News Service local news operation. The Boston Globe eliminated its national desk. The Los Angeles Times is losing longtime music critic Robert Hilburn among a boatload of staffers taking a buyout to help avoid layoffs.

For a longtime newspaper employee, of course this feels like the end of the world. But the slow decline of newspapers also affects every other facet of the news business. TV news outlets and radio companies have already downsized themselves into skeleton staffs, while Internet news outlets built their business plan around lean labor costs.

Newspapers remain the last place where large numbers of journalists go out to unearth facts which the general public may not know, and what others may not want them to know (if you doubt this, watch CNN or Fox News and count how many times they cite stories based on newspapers such as the New York Times or Washington Post).

As circulation declines by a couple percentage points each year, and Wall Street demands increasing, double digit profit margins, newspaper companies around the country are struggling to make their business plans match the poor numbers. Sure, the industry is retrenching, but it may also be stuck in a death spiral -- cutting costs, which diminishes the product, which brings less customers, which inspires more cost-cutting.

I'm with those who have concluded that publicly-owned newspapers must either come up with a new definition of success for Wall Street, or they will need to get out of the newspaper-owning game. More and more, running a good newspaper is becoming a community service as much as a business. And its time to save America's newspapers before we're stuck in a news universe of breaking news coverage and infotainment.

Second Most Troubling Media Trend of 2005

Two days from the year's end and we're down to the big ideas. And this one involves (arguably) the most powerful person in the United States.

Number 2: George Bush Helps Subvert Journalism's Credibility

It's not just the pundits paid by government organizations to support their policies (see Armstrong Wiliams, Maggie Gallagher, Mike McManus and Doug Bandow). Or the government press releases developed to look like TV news reports and passed off to television stations natiowide as real news, also known as Video News Releases. Or the constant, insincere insistence that disregarding the reports of major news organizations somehow makes him a better leader.

But it seems our President and his administration has developed a myriad of strategies to devalue and discredit media institutions in America and abroad: from the baldfaced attempts to bring PBS under Republican control earlier this year, to the ongoing campagin paying Iraqi newspapers to print pro-American stories written by military officers.

At times, these methods seem an extension of the dynamic columnist Craig Crawford writes about in his book Attack the Messenger, in which politicians deflect incisive coverage by attacking the media's methods and objectives. Using CBS anchor Dan Rather's confrontation with George H.W. Bush over Iran/Contra scandal as an example, Crawford notes the time-honored tactic of making the reporter's questions the subject, not the questions themselves. And in a media universe whereevery day seems to bring a new scandal, the public seems increasingly willing to believe the worst of its news outlets.

Unfortunately, such activities don't support the freedom and democracy our President spends so much time extolling. If the best news stories of 2005 taught us anything -- the secret CIA prisons; the secret (possibly illegal) eavesdropping campaign conducted by the NSA without court approval; the aggressive coverage of governmental dysfunction revealed by Hurricane Katrina's aftermath -- it's that America's best news outlets do valuable work in checking the power of government every day.

Responsible leaders should be trying to help that process, not bend it to their particularly short-sighted political objectives.

Third and Fourth Most Troubling Media Stories of 2005

This entry is big enough to get two spots on our list; both because of its scope and its implications for the future of journalism.

Number 3 and 4: The CIA Leak Case and the Saga of Judith Miller and Bob Woodward

Like the Mafia or a Michael Jackson trial, the federal investigation into who leaked CIA operative Valerie Plame's name to the news media has slimed everyone it touches. And few journalists have been as damaged by the case as former New York Times reporter Judith Miller and Washington Post investigative legend Bob Woodward (well, maybe the douchebag of liberty, Bob Novak).

At first, Miller seemed a hero for resisting prosecutor's efforts to force revelation of her source, eventually choosing to serve 85 days in jail rather than testify who leaked the name. But when Miller made an abrupt about-face -- claiming vice presidential chief of staff I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby didn't provide sufficient evidence he was releasing her from confidentiality promises until she has been in jail nearly three months -- journalism watchdogs got suspicious.

Eventually, the NewYork Times and other news outlets dug up enough of Miller's backstory to reveal a too-close relationship to government sources, which likely corrupted her reporting on weapons of mass destruction in Iraq (perhaps helping the Bush administration make the case for war in Iraq) and got her involved in the Plame saga.

On the back of a self-involved reporter and a too-credulous publisher, the New York Times went from crusading for a valorious journalism principle to shielding a federal official who was likely trying to plant stories in the media designed to silence a Bush administration critic. Along the way, they earned a series of court decisions which seriously weakened the right of journalists to keep sources secret from federal prosecutors.

And as a horrible denouement, investigative reporting legend Bob Woodward was forced to admit in November that he had heard Valerie Plame's name from a White House source before Libby told Miller. This simultenously poked holes in the prosecutors' case against Libby and tarnished the reputation of America's best-known investigative reporter -- who had denounced and downplayed the CIA leak investigation on TV news shows without revealing he was involved.

In the end, two prominent journalism institutions were revealed to have abdicated their journalism watchdog roles to protect their insider status. And the only reason such a scandal hasn't seemed to affect public opinion of journalists' integrity is because it was already horribly low to begin with.

Media Extra #1:

When I first saw Chris Parnell and Andy Samberg's way-funny rap Lazy Sunday on Saturday Night Live a few weeks ago -- it tells the story, Beastie Boys-style, of two geeks who hook up on Sunday to see the Chronicles of Narnia -- I was rolling on the floor. Pairing the urgent delivery style of in-your-face old schoolers like the Beasties and Run DMC with the dorky story of two guys going to the Upper West Side to see a kids' movie, Parnell and Samberg managed to satire both slacker/geek culture and urban rap.

Coolest line is the chorus: "It's the Chronic (What!) -cles of Narnia!"

Of course, the clip has become an Internet sensation. And critics like myself have already begun to over-analyze it. (Josh Levin of Slate theorizes this three-minute clip could save hip hop; funny, I wasn't aware that a music style which produced three of the top five selling pop albums last week needed saving).

Cool to see that, 20 years after the Beastie Boys first hit, pairing geeky white guys with hardcore rap still gets a laugh.

Fifth Most Troubling Media Trend in 2005

If one accepts Hunter S. Thompson's description of the TV news industry -- "...some kind of cruel and shallow money trench through the heart of the journalism industry, a long plastic hallway where thieves and pimps run free and good men die like dogs, for no good reason" -- then we probably shouldn't care so much when the faces in that hallway change around.

But because, for many good reasons, we do...

Number 5: TV News' Changing of the Anchor Guard

If someone would have told you, 18 months ago, that by the end of 2005 every major TV network and CNN would have changed its top anchor, you probably would have backed away from them slowly -- your spritzer of Mace at the ready.

But in that time, they have all left us: Brokaw, Jennings, Rather, Koppel and Brown. Some exits, like Brokaw's and Koppel's, were long-planned. Other departures, such as Jennings' and Rather's -- were tragedies, both medical and political. And Aaron Brown had the bad luck to be an overly intellectual journalist in an industry where intellect is valued less all the time.

Some say the notion of a TV news anchor is outdated, anyway; our new, never-ending flow of news means that news is the star, not some overpaid suit with a deep voice. But emergencies ranging from 9/11 to Hurricane Katrina has shown us national news networks need an authoritative voice to put on the big stories-- to reassure viewers, and provide an emotional link to coverage.

And the impact of recent events means, that instead of a slow evolution toward a new anchor voice, we have most major new outlets improvising their face for the 21st Century on the fly -- with an astonishing gap in results.

NBC's Brian Williams has transitioned best, seasoned over a two-year transition, his experience on MSNBC and friendliness to technology allowing him to keep a cool blog and provide reputation-making, cable-news-style coverage of Hurricane Katrina.

But CNN's Anderson Cooper still seems a little callow for his new role; the trio of anchors chosen for Koppel's Nightline have turned it into a hollow echo of cable news and typical network newsmagazines; the anchor duo chosen to replace Jennings pairs a beautiful journalism lightweight with a reporter America barely knows; and CBS' plan to redefine itself for the new millenium post-Rather comes down to three words: get Katie Couric.

Such lack of direction would be ominous if the TV news business was standing still. But with expanding Internet and digital technology making new news delivery systems more important all the time, the TV news business needs a better developed, solidly grounded sense of itself to weather the transition.

So far, what they've come up with doesn't inspire much confidence.

Happy Holidays From Your Media Guy: Two Posts in One

In honor of the holidays, I'm going to give you the sixth and seventh most troubling media stories in a single post -- an extra dose of media madness to celebrate the holidays...

Number 7: the Media Divide Grows

Back when I was a TV critic, I often theorized the day would come when viewers could watch a network TV show whenever they wanted -- and the winner between the cable TV/satellite/internet systems would be won by whomever could deliver that service first and best.

Now we are on the cusp of seeing such service available through a myriad of technologies, from video on demand services to be tested by Comcast Cable to individual episodes of popular ABC and NBC shows available through iTunes for PCs and video ipods.

And while the explosion of technology has this fan excited, there's a dark side to this spread of on demand technology -- it creates a growing media gap between those who can afford high quality media and those who can't.

Once upon a time, we all pretty much watched the same TV, heard the same radio, or read the same newspapers. We were a huge, mass audience united by media and culture, with relatively equal access to the entertainment and informative aspects of the best media.

But that is increasingly no longer true. First, cable TV offered access to 24-hour newschannels and pop culture outlets such as MTV and BET. Then, the explosion of cyberspace presented a world of information to anyone with a home PC and online account. Premium cable services such as HBO and Showtime began to attract some of the edgiest, creative TV comedy and drama series.

Now, Howard Stern is headed to satellite radio and networks are exploring on demand technologies that sidestep local TV stations -- where folks can still see high-quality TV comedy, drama and news shows for free.

In a world where nearly as many people have TVs as indoor plumbing, it is possible the poor will simply find a way to pay for the transition to digital TV and all the other high-cost media sources they desire. But as the quality of media available to each American becomes more dependent on which media sources they can afford, we may see curious repercussions in a media-drenched democracy.

Number 6: Hurricane Porn and Mistaken Reporting from Hurricane Katrina

If this were a sunnier list, I would be noting how coverage of Katrina, the government's awful response and the horrific aftermath seemed to galvanize an electronic media lost in the mind-numbing morass of Natalee Holloway and CIA Leak stories -- returning news coverage to its hard news, incisive roots.

But media never met a positive trend it couldn't obliterate with overuse, and the downside of excellent initial Katrina coverage was an obsessively overeager coverage of subsequent storms -- a.k.a., Hurricane Porn -- and overreporting of lawlessness and chaos in Katrina's aftermath.

As I and many other media critics pointed out, the wildest tales of looting, assaults and rapes in Katrina's aftermath were untrue -- fueled by widespread rumor-mongering, a lack of communication in the affected areas and public officials parroting the worst stories in an attempt to get the world's attention.

And because anchors such as CNN's Anderson Cooper and NBC's Brian Williams made their reputations in Katrina reportage, subsequent storms sparked a frenzy of coverage by over-anxious correspondents seeking their own 15 minutes of fame -- riding the back of a tragedy.

With 2005 a record-breaking year for hurricanes, all news organizations have struggled to keep up with the storms. But hysteria over the chaos in Katrina's aftermath -- and a recognition of how inaccurate media reports fed that reaction -- have outlined the dangers of failing to get the stories of america's natural disasters right.

Eighth Most Troubling Media Story of 2005

At its height, it was visible everywhere: from the front page of the New York Times to prime time shows on MSNBC, CNN and Fox News Channel. For the way this issue commandeered the nation's news outlets earlier this year...

Number 8: Terry Schiavo Case Hijacks the National News

It's hard to remember now, post-Katrina, how ubiquitous the Terri Schiavo case was on national news outlets toward the beginning of this year, as the woman who had lain in a vegetative state for 15 years neared the end of her life.

In particular, those who sought to keep Schiavo alive -- contesting her husband's contention that she did not want to live in a vegetative state -- seemed to play the media like a well-worn fiddle, staging protests at the hospice housing Schiavo, making the rounds of cable newschannels and network TV morning shows and elisting the likes of Rev. Jesse Jackson and Operation Rescue's Randall Terry to press their case to reporters.

Because Michael Schiavo rarely talked to reporters and often came off badly when he did, the result was a lopsided war of media images in which old, heavily edited footage of Schiavo in her hospital bed played endlessly like feedback loop.

Did this coverage help push a conservative Congress into passing ill-advised legislation aimed at keeping her alive? (I believe one of the first nails in the coffin of Senate leader Bill Frist's presidential ambitions was his diagnosis of Schiavo after watching an hourlong videotape) Did it push George Bush into cutting a vacation short -- something he only reluctantly did when Katrina struck -- to sign that legislation? Did it help bolster a meddlesome Gov. Jeb Bush into thinking he might order state law enforcement agents to sieze Schiavo as a ward of the state?

These are questions we can never have answers to, of course. Many mainstream media outlets, including the St. Petersburg Times, tried valiantly to cover this hot-button issue fairly and incisively. And actvists on both sides of the Schiavo case complained about mainstream media outlets failing to report the case in ways consistent with their beliefs.

Still, the Schiavo case remains a high-profile example of how savvy activists can play to the news media's weaknesses -- an insatiable need for new material, the superficiality of reports on morning and cable news shows, the attraction to conflict in coverage -- to produce reports which inflame and incite rather than enlighten.

Ninth Most Troubling Media Story of 2005

At the risk of being accused of playing the race card again, my 9th most troubling media story of 2005 is, indeed, rooted in race.

Number 9: Missing White Woman Syndrome

The Associated Press told the story succintly: most missing adults tracked by federal authorities are male and one in five are black. But the news media, particularly television, has gorged itself on the stories of Missing (Middle Class) White Women to the point that many news consumers may assume otherwise.

(Holloway and Wilbanks in happier days)

Though this is hardly a phenomenon which started in 2005, the cases of Jessica Lunsford, Sarah Lunde, Jennifer Wilbanks and Natalee Holloway may have brought the awful trend to an unfortunate climax this year. The dynamic is so pronounced, the online encyclopdia Wikipedia even has an entry on the term.

Cable TV newschannels seem to be the engine of this trend, picking up on disappearances which would have been local or regional stories years ago and presenting the kind of continuous coverage which turns them into national issues. I noted in August how some cable news anchors -- particularly Greta Van Susteren -- saw serious ratings gains after focusing on such stories.

Which, on one level, is fine -- someone should be pressing Aruban authorities to cut through the nonsense and find Holloway, for example. But other journalists have found missing black and brown people who only get attention for the manner in which most journalists ignored their stories.

(Tameca Huston, a South Carolina woman whose disappearance mostly received national media coverage as an illustration of media's focus on pretty white women)

We all know TV plays on our emotions, and media has 1,000 ways to reinforce the value of the pretty, blonde woman in society. But, like the Hurricane Katrina aftermath which finally put missing white women on the back burner, such coverage has a way of highlighting exactly who America cares about -- and who it doesn't.

Tampa Bay Media Tidbit #2

It's the kind of holiday spirit I've come to expect from TV executives after eight years watching the industry unfold: Brian Fasulo and Debra Schrils, the perky pair who host WFLA-Ch. 8's late morning chat show, Daytime, got pink slips in their Christmas stockings this year -- told the station wasn't renewing their contracts just before the holidays.

The move was a bit of a surprise, both because the show performs well in its post-Today show 10 a.m. timeslot (admittedly, against competition like Tony Danza, Martha and Judge Alex), and because it makes money. Of course, one reason this localized version of Regis and Kelly turns a profit is because some guests pay to be featured on the show.

Media General has long been planning to syndicate the show all its 22 stations, so this talent change may be a sign they're ready to get moving. It may also be a sign that general manager Eric Land, a staunch defender of Daytime who recently secured a job as chief operating officer of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, has left the building.

Rumors are flying about possible replacements, including Tampa real estate agent Melissa Holovach, who was the first person eliminated from the latest edition of NBC's Donald Trump vehicle, The Apprentice.

One question remains: How can replacing two people who helped build this local franchise for years with someone who was on national TV for 10 minutes make any sense? Maybe WFLA will be charging her for the priviledge of hosting the show.

Tampa Bay Media Tidbits

Looks like Christmas has come early for Mike "Cowhead" Calta, who was just named morning personality at 98Rock WXTB-97.9 FM -- taking the spot once held by his former boss, Bubba the Love Sponge.

Cowhead has had some rough luck recently, from a legal battle with Bubba over the rights to his name -- Bubba now says he offered Cowhead a spot on his new satellite radio show -- to losing his morning gig at WYUU-FM when the station went to a Spanish-language format.

Now he's been given a shot in the big leagues, up against the popular MJ morning show on WFLZ, Orlando at Wild 98.7 WLLD, and the oldsters on WFLA-970 AM -- Jack Harris, Tedd Webb and Sharon Taylor. Wonder if he'll be killing any animals live on air, like his former boss?

The Top 10 Most Troubling Media Stories of 2005

You can tell we've reached the end of another year by the explosion of lists: Top 10 movies, Best TV Shows, Worst Celebrity Scandals - you name it, there's a list for it.

Because I'm off work for the next two weeks -- but I can't bear to leave my blog alone -- I'm going to join the crowd, counting down my list of Most troubling Media Stories in 2005, revealing a different entry every couple days or so.

Feel free to chime in with your own entries -- count down with me if you like -- as we excavate what has turned out to be one of the toughest years for media in a long while.

My first entry, technically my 10th entry, is (drumroll...)

Number 10: The Bogus War on Christmas

This is a topic I've wound up discussing on a few different TV/pundit shows, and it seemed good enough to land at the bottom of my Top 10.

A number of advocacy groups and pundits are complaining about a "War on Christmas" supposedly enabled by politically correct corporation and government types too cowardly to commemmorate Christmas in their retail displays and holiday cards (whoops! I've done it myself.)

(sign outside Without Walls church in Tampa/photo by Times staffer Brian Cassella)

It would seem a ludicrous idea -- that a holiday commemorated with weeks of sales, TV specials, a federal holiday and literally hundreds of years of celebration history could seriously be considered "under attack."

But this is just what Fox News Channel's Bill O'Reilly and John Gibson would have viewers believe. To make his point, O'Reilly has claimed a school district in Plano Texas and the township of Saginaw, Mich. both banned red and green clothing -- claims which real journalists have proven false. He claimed on his radio show that the Postal Service doesn't offer spiritually themed postage stamps -- another falsity.

O'Reilly also aired a year-old clip from the Daily Show as proof of the current assault, implying that the excerpt was from 2005 (Jon Stewart, ever up for a media fight, had the now-pregnant correspondent featured in the clip, Samantha Bee, on to show how old the story really was).

I could go on, but you get the point. In their quest to rack up sales for their books and ratings for their TV shows and allegiance from their followers, Gibson and O'Reilly have ginned up a conflict that isn't there. Beyond the oddity of demanding the commercialization of a religious observance and bullying the country into disregarding the holiday celebrations of Jews and Muslims, their claim that Christmas is being marginalized isn't true.

Generally, we depend on journalistic enterprises such as Fox News and even news commentator/host/pundit types such as Gibson and O'Reilly to expose such falsities and hypocrisies, not encourage them. Yes, we know the drill by now: these guys depend on riding such controversies to build their own fame and power.

Still, because Christmas is generally a slow news time and media outlets always need to fill pages or airtime with something, this controversy has spread across the news universe like a virus, spawning a host of stories, editorials and columns. Despite our better judgment, we media types have spent endless hours debating the significance of this faux conflict, to the exclusion of real news -- even in this space.

Reason enough to land as my 10th worst media trend in 2005.

Robert Novak Permanently Gone from CNN: Fans of Ethical Journalism Rejoice

Once called a "douchebag of liberty" by Daily Show host Jon Stewart, political columnist Robert Novak has earned a unique sort of infamy among those who value ethical journalism for his role in revealing publicly the identity of covert CIA operative Valerie Plame -- touching off a massive federal investigation over who leaked her identity, and avoiding any visible penalty.

But that may no longer be true, following news that CNN has decided not to renew Novak's contract to appear as a contributor, ending the former Crossfire host's 25-year association with the cable newschannel.

Novak had been off camera at CNN since August, when he stormed off the set during a segment with James Carville, after Carville needled him for one of his positions. "Well, I think that's bullshit, and I hate that," he said, just before standing up, ripping off his microphone and walking off camera. CNN suspended him indefinitely then, sparking talk Novak's days there were seriously numbered.

His tantrum was a somewhat indelicate end to a situation which had become increasingly embarassing for both CNN and Novak, anyway. Because he declined to speak substantively about the incredible firestorm of investigations, subpoenas and the indictment sparked by his column, CNN was stuck with a commentator who refused to comment on the most newsworthy political story of the day -- forced to occasionally try questioning him on camera to avoid looking totally idiotic.

Long known as a media mouthpiece for the GOP, Novak emerged through the CIA leak case as the administration's fourth estate hitman -- publishing information circulated by Bush officials to strike back at longtime administration critic Joseph Wilson through his wife, Plame (This piece maintains White House brain Karl Rove had actully intended to talk to Novak about something else).

While New York Times reporter Judith Miller sat in jail and Time reporter Matthew Cooper spoke to prosecutors, Novak avoided the subject during his on air appearances -- making CNN look like a network which couldn't even get news from one of its own employees. In a recent speech, Novak suggested people stop bugging him and Bob Woodward and instead pester President Bush to reveal who leaked Plame's name.

Of course, CNN denied the leak case prompted its action, confirming Novak's departure in a terse, 452-word press release.

"Bob has also been a valued contributor to CNN’s political coverage. We appreciate his many contributions and wish him well in future endeavors," said Jon Klein, president of CNN/U.S., in a line which was remarkably similar to the kiss off he gave ousted anchor Aaron Brown.

Let me echo that sentiment. Well, except for the part about Novak being a "valued contributor" or wishing him well in future endeavors.

Because, frankly, I can think of no better fate for a guy who enabled the Bush administration's subversion of the press while kicking off a federal investigation which definitively curbed all journalists' rights to keep sources secret.

UPDATE:

The douchebag of liberty now says he will work occasionally as a Fox News contributor. That's fair and balanced for you.

Howard Stern Hits the Road: Will Radio Ever Be the Same?

As I write this, the King of All Media has just wrapped up his last show on free terrestrial radio. And, as anyone who has checked out Stern in the last year or so can attest, it has turned into an odd mix of what works and what doesn't about his program these days.

What works is when Stern connects with his audience like a super-size version of the average listener. While they might fantasize about playing butt bongo with Playboy playmates and grilling Pamela Anderson about her sexual escapades, Stern does it -- while cracking jokes sharp enough to stand on their own, without the pornstars.

Yahoo is covering Stern's farewell like the Macy Thankgiving day parade, with an observation platform containing two hosts and cameras stationed throughout the crowd of thousands gathered at his KROCK studio to watch him walk over to satellite radio (why their two hosts couldn't get nearby workers to stop hammering while they talked remains a mystery).

""I see this sea of shining faces and I have to ask myself, 'Doesn't anybody work anymore?' " Stern cracked during his farewell, marking a 20-year milestone. Quoting a piece for MSNBC.com by former St. Petersburg Times writer Helen Popkin, Stern noted: " 'Howard Stern is the last of a dying breed'...The government, the religious right have taken over the airwaves...When are we ever going see an audience like this again? There will never be another radio show like this, there will never be an audience like this."

Known for his caustic wit, Stern turned sentimental during his farewell address, telling his audience: "Because of you, I had clout. When you gave me ratings, I was able to the door of every genenral manager and beat them down. Ths radio show has been fired, this radio show has been suspended, this radio show has been fined millions of dollars, but we stood our ground. We're the last of a dying breed...The religious right is the American Taliban, and we've beaten them."

(Stern on The Daily Show a few days ago)

The opening of his show set the tone -- a profanity-laced tribute to some of the show's regular guests who have passed away, including comic Sam Kinison, rapper Ol' Dirty Bastard and showbiz legend Rodney Dangerfield.

But Stern's final show was also filled with a lot of reminders about when his show doesn't work. Too much talk about his career, too much talk about his business interests, airtime given to politicians like Ed Koch and Gary Ackerman? Even for guy who has turned self-obsession into a billion-dollar career, this was something else.

When I was working as a music critic in New Jersey, I had a love/hate relationship with Stern. He was clearly the funniest guy on the airwaves in New York, which made his show irresistible But the racism, misogyny and knuckleheaded behavior he showcased was too much, and I had to stop listening.

And while I applaud the fact that Stern can now do his adult-focused show in an unfettered medium, I wonder if the move doesn't also reflect Stern's growing separation from his audience. Divorced from his down-to-earth wife and involved with a supermodel-pretty girlfriend, boosted by a half-billion-dollar contract and headed off free commercial radio, he runs the risk of isolation from his audience and the sensibilities which made him such a phenomenal broadcaster in the first place.

(Stern courtside at a Knicks game with Donald and Melania Trump, girlfriend Beth Ostrosky, Chris Rock and his wife).

And regardless of opinions about his content, Stern's move to satellite means one more high-quality entertainment outlet is pushed to a premium service -- making what is left for those who cannot afford satellite radio that much blander. (See my story on how this move has revitalized local shock jock Bubba the Love Sponge's fortunes here.)

Farewell to the King. Here's hoping his departure shocks commercial radio into renewed quality.

UPDATE:
Stern's radio home locally, WBZZ-AM, plans to simulcast sister station WQYK-FM after Stern's contract with Infinity/CBS Radio ends Dec. 31. They will change the station's call letters to WQYK-AM, effectively turning that station into an AM echo of the FM outlet. Best of Stern shows will air on WBZZ until Jan. 1; executives here say it didn't make financial sense to try picking up any of the shows CBS Radio developed to replace Stern (including the show hosted by former Van Halen frontman David Lee Roth).

Seems an odd choice for a 50,000-watt station; evidence that terrestrial radio is still having a tough time with that whole innovation thing.

Rita Cosby: How Does She Keep Her Job?

There are some people whose success in media seems inexplicable.

CNN Headline News' Nancy Grace once topped my list in that regard, combining belligerent, pro-prosecution crime coverage with a grating, Southern-fried on air style that would seem calculated to drive viewers mad -- like the drip-drip of some dastardly Chinese banality torture.

But that was all B.R.: Before Rita.

Wielding a voice like a middle linebacker with a head cold, Rita Cosby has turned MSNBC's 9 p.m. hour into a haven for tabloid TV inanity usually reserved for the world of Inside Edition and Geraldo At Large. Tasered grandmothers. A wife of a Navy man who totes around a mannequin which looks like him when he's deployed. A psychic with predictions about the Natalee Holloway case.

No topic is too banal for Cosby, a Fox News Channel reject who left the home of O'Reilly when they wouldn't renew her contract to work weekends. So Rick Kaplan, the brain trust who once tried to bring network TV's inflated star salaries and empty newsmagazine concepts to CNN (and who consistently tangles with the channel's real star, Keith Olbermann), decided to make her MSNBC's Next Big Star.

Check the incisive wit she brought to an interview Tuesday with former Monday Night Football sideline reporter-turned-baseball wife and Playboy centerfold, Lisa Guerrero:

(Getty Images)

COSBY: Well, you do absolutely look beautiful. But are you going to be...
GUERRERO: Thank you.
COSBY: ... embarrassed at all, when you run into his teammates? You know, now there‘s no imagination left for what you look like with your clothes off. Are you going to feel funny at a dinner party with them or at a social event?
GUERRERO: Let me put it this way, Rita: After having covered sports for 13 years and having been in many locker rooms myself, I have seen them in their altogether, so I guess fair is fair.
COSBY: This is tit-for-tat, is that it?
GUERRERO: I guess could you say that, right?

And this was the woman MSNBC sent to watch Stanley "Tookie" Williams draw his last breath?

(Cosby with two jurors from the Michael Jackson trial, of course!)

Unfortunately, it seems Cosby has scored some ratings juice with stories on wrestling star Eddie Guerrero's death and her, um, probing interviews with women at the legendary legal Nevada brothel, the Bunny Ranch.

Once again, it seems, we're only getting the TV news we deserve.

ADDENDUM:

My pal (and former TV news director) Tom Jacobs complains that I'm being coy in my headline and already know the answer to the question I posit. Namely, that Cosby (and Grace) are blonde, obnoxious and relatively attractive.

But what does that say about Larry King?

PUNDIT ALERT!

To hear me mix it up today with noted conservative John McWhorter on Ed Gordon's National Public Radio show News and Notes, click here. We cover the possiblity of black politicians gaining statewide offices and the record number of U.S. immigrants, coming to surprising agreement on George Bush's frantic attempts to re-sell the American people on war in Iraq.

Edgy News Arrives in Tampa

I do a lot of TV and radio pundit gigs -- sitting in a studio with a few other people tossing around opinions on politics, culture or society -- so when the producer who usually books me on WTVT-Ch. 13's midday talk segment asked me to participate in something they were calling the Lightning Round, I said yes without thinking much.

Turns out, I had agreed to appear on the tail end of WTVT's first 11 p.m. newscast Monday, the NewsEdge.

Conceived as a four-minute roundtable on a variety of topics, this "Lightning Round" thing was predictably superficial. Seated with anchor Mark Wilson, sports guy Chip Carter and weatherman Paul Dellegatto (guess who was the chocolate chip in that cookie), I helped them tackle topics such as a local church's sign saying "To Hell with Happy Holidays" (bad!) and the Buccaneers ascending to first place in the division defying all prognostications (good!)

What bothered me most, was that the segment was filmed at 4 p.m. that afternoon, yet was presented within the show with no explanation -- leaving viewers to assume we were live in the studio, because everything else in the show seemed to be done live.

Turns out, NewsEdge employed a few such tricks during its inaugural broadcast. Reporter Gloria Gomez delivered two reports live in an area that looked suspiciously like the fountains in front of WTVT's studios. And one of her reports was on the results of a survey about sexual harassment in high school which was conducted in 1997! (How many kids surveyed? Where were they located? We don't know, because Gomez didn't tell us.)

What NewsEdge does have, is lots of flashy graphics and swooshy sound effects -- an odd, kinetic bridge between the vapid reporting style of Fox News Channel and WTVT's usually sound journalism.

Besides the 1997 survey, there was a story on a local guy who builds improved harnesses to hold gunners inside Humvees, a high-velocity spin through the story (reported by newspapers days ago) of a black man unreasonably detained at a local Wal-Mart, brief bits of national news and a woman who carries a mannequin looking like her husband to the movies and a restaurant. Other than the story on a local parent who feels her daughter was helped by a teacher accused of sexually abusing another student -- and the weather -- was there anything in this show that couldn't have waited to air until the following morning? If ever?

(Fox News Channel creator Roger Ailes)

Word is that Fox News plans to review tapes of the first few shows with an eye toward duplicating the format in other markets. Certainly, the program provides an eye-catching framework for local news done the Fox way -- something Fox News Channel creator Roger Ailes promised to develop when he took over as head of Fox's owned-and-operated stations.

It also serves as a showcase for anchor Mark Wilson, son of top dog anchor John Wilson, who the station has sought to feature for many years. I'm also hearing the format was developed by Sue Kawalerski, a former assistant news director at WTVT whose shining moment was coming up with the idea of parking a Ryder truck in front of the federal courthouse in downtown Tampa on the day the Timothy McVeigh trial started in 1997 to test security. (law enforcement was extremely not pleased)

But considering WTVT's long struggle to convince the Tampa Bay area's traditional news viewers it wasn't a slave to Fox's high-octane approach, NewsEdge is a curious step in the other direction. My suggestion: find some compelling content to go with all the bells and whistles, before viewers notice how little substance lies behind the sizzle.

Editorial Cartoonists Bite the Hand Which Downsizes Them

In recent years, the nation's editorial cartoonists have realized they are on a business end of a serious crisis.

As newspapers search for ways to cut costs amid pressures to increase profits, the guys (and gals) who draw funny pictures have found themselves increasingly defined as a luxury item. So when layoffs and downsizing comes, guess who gets the axe first? And if someone new is hired -- which can be a big if; the St. Petersburg Times hasn't had a staff cartoonist since Don Addis retired in August 2004 -- guess who is rarely made a full-time staffer with benefits?

To take arms against this injustice, the American Association of Editorial Cartoonists have staged their own protest, penning 100 cartoons decrying the downsizing of the American newspaper and the disappearance of the local political cartoonist.

AAEC President-elect Rob Rogers, an old buddy of mine from my days working at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, is helping spearhead the protest, which features a ton of cartoons criticizing Tribune Co.'s announced plans to layoff 800 workers. (former SP Times cartoonist Clay Bennett is curent AAEC prez.)

Some might say penning cartoons depicting top media executives as King Kong-style marauders or Boss Tweed-style rapacious capitalistas is not the best career move.

But when your back -- and the backs of newspaper employees across the nation -- is against the wall, sometimes desperate measures are required.

HAPPY 30th B-DAY NABJ

Years ago, Washington Post (and former St. Petersburg Times) writer Vanessa Williams told me a wry joke about attending a meeting of the National Association of Black Journalists.

Vanessa, who was once president of the group, was sitting in a restaurant meeting when the waiter asked why there wasn't a National Association of White Journalists.

"There is," she said. "It's called the Society of Professional Journalists, The American Society of Newspaper Editors, the Invesigative Reporters and Editors, Inc..."

All jokes aside, NABJ has through the years proven the value in a professional organization which focuses on the unique needs of African American journalists struggling to succeed in a white-dominated media industry. Today, the group celebrates its 30th anniversary amid renewed challenges to stay relevant at a time of increasing "diversity fatigue."

Contrary to popular belief, membership in NABJ is open to any professional communicator. And the Tampa Bay area chapter, which I lead, has several non-black members.

(from left: Poynter Institute's Kenny Irby, CBS News correspondent Byron Pitts and me at the local NABJ chapter's Griot Drum Awards, where we handed out 17 awards and $1,300 in scholarships Nov. 3. Photo by TBABJ member Carrie Pratt)

But the group has maintained an unwavering focus on teaching mainstream media the value of ethnic diversity in reporting and staffing. When the group was founded by 44 black journalists in 1975, news outlets across the country were struggling to assimilate black people hired from marketing departments and other, non-journalism areas in a mad dash to cultivate reporters who could understand the non-white side of the Civil Rights movement.

Now, the challenge remains to retain talented journalists of color who have a multitude of career options at a time of belt-tightening at mainstream media outlets. To hear how that fight is going, check out NPR media writer David Folkenflik's story on NABJ from today's Morning Edition, featuring Richmond Times-Dispatch editor Glenn Proctor (shown above).

Certainly I -- a black journalist who went to college in part because of a scholarship from an NABJ chapter in Gary, Ind. -- remain indebted to the accomplishments of a group whose work, unfortunately, has only just begun.

Richard's Gone, But His Art Lives On

Anybody who was a fan couldn't have been surprised by news of legendary comic Richard Pryor's death today from a heart attack.

Indeed, if anything, we should be surprised he lived this long.

I guess I'm also surprised that it wasn't one of his many overdoses, an angry ex-wife, a freebasing accident or some random nastiness which took his life. Pryor, who would survive the kind of addictions and personal troubles which buried lesser men, was felled by the consequences of the one foe he couldn't overcome: multiple schlerosis. (See his official site, with its horribly ironic lead graphic, here)

For me, the fabulously self-destructive Pryor was always a bittersweet symbol of black pride and creativity. His comedy, rooted in the rhythms of the street and based on characters at the heart of black America -- the swaggering preacher, the know-it-all oldster Mudbone, the impossibly confident wino, the jive talking neighborhood dude -- gave us a voice back when we most needed one.

My earliest memory of Pryor's comedy was a family Christmas gathering many years ago. My mother and her siblings wound up behind a locked door at my grandmother's house -- the smell of mary jane and muffled snippets of his comedy routines seeping under the threshhold. Even then, consuming Pryor's comedy was a communal event for black folks, who had never seen a comic talk about the reality of black life in such a visceral, funny way.

Later, I would get my own copy of That Nigger's Crazy, playing the 8-track tape at low volume
so my mom wouldn't know how hip I was. I didn't have a father at home, but I saw all my friends' dads in Pryor's recollection about how his father demanded he "have his ass home by 'eleben.'

It remains a shame that so many young comics have taken Pryor's example as an excuse to sling profanities at a crowd. Because no matter how blue his routines got, Pryor was usually reaching for a more creative truth. The moment he declared, after a trip to Africa, that he didn't see any more niggers and would stop using the word -- was almost as powerful as the instant he decided to stop being a Bill Cosby clone early in his career and start telling the truth onstage.

When I teach courses about the image of black people on TV through history, I talk about the Supernegro image in the '60s exemplified in characters played by Cosby, Sidney Poitier and Diahann Carroll -- near-perfect black folks who earned props from the white world by being far more talented, accomplished or attractive than any white people in their orbit (see this Wikipedia entry on another black character archetype, the Magical Negro).

For a time, Pryor tried to fit that mold as a comic. But it wasn't until he dropped all that pretense and showed the gritty, profane source of his creative spirit (mirroring the turn toward realistic portrayals of black folks on ghetto-coms such as Good Times) that he did his best work.

A few cool quotes:
"I went to Zimbabwe...I know how white people feel in America now, relaxed! Cause when I heard the police car I knew they weren't coming after me!"

"White people be going, 'Why do you hold on to your ...things?' 'Cause you took everything else muthaf

When It Comes to Network TV Diversity...

...are Latinos the new blacks?

I asked that question a few years ago, when the networks advanced a few Hispanic-centered sitcoms as a way to refute the growing criticism that the nation's largest minority group (sounds like an oxmoron, I know) was all but invisible on network TV.

It took a couple years, but the suits finally got the hint, presenting a slate of new shows this year featuring more Hispanic actors and characters than we've seen in a long time.

Some didn't last long, like former Univision hostess/sex kitten Sofia Vergara in ABC's awful Hot Properties. But others -- including Freddie Prinze Jr.'s cringeworthy Hispanic/Italian relatives in Freddie and Eddie Cibrian's grown-up orphan of the Mariel Boatlift on Invasion -- provide a layered, compelling portrait of an ethnic group at a curious stage of assimilation.

ABC has done the most, comitting to introducing at least one Hispanic character on as many series as possible. NBC and CBS have also made strides, as evidenced by a diversity report card issued last week by the National Latino Media Council.

What seems obvious now, is that the networks have broadened their horizonsa bit when thinking diversity in casting. More often, diversity can include a Hispanic character or an Asian character, and often you may see character from two or three different ethnic groups in a single cast (old school diversity just dropped one chocalate chip in that cookie and called it a day).

It does mean fewer black actors are cast as best friends and sidekicks in favor of other ethnicities -- but it also means a more balanced worldview overall, where a Hispanic man can run for president on West Wing, a white women can serve as president on Commander in Chief and a black kid can deliver Wonder Years-style nostalgia on Everybody Hates Chris.

Already, I've gotten the predictable emails from people complaining about Hispanic culture forced on them or having to read subtitles when bilingual characters naturally segue into their other language in dialogue.

Wake up, people. This is the America of the future: a salad bowl where everything from hip hop culture to Spanglish and NASCAR matches influences the national conversation.

Personally, it's a future I'm really looking forward to.

HD Radio: Traditional Radio's Last Gasp?

You know when something pulls together the biggest names in the traditionally cutthroat radio industry, they must be awfully scared.

And judging by the names attached to Big Radio's effort to expand the nascent HD Digital Radio industry, traditional radio broadcasters are simply petrified.

On Tuesday, eight of the industry's top companies announced an alliance to develop and expand digital radio: Bonneville International, Citadel Broadcasting, Clear
Channel Radio, Cumulus, Emmis Communications, Entercom, Greater Media, and Infinity Broadcasting.

Like HD TV, HD Radio allows broadcasters to send signals that are sharper and cleaner than traditional broadcasts. They also can segment the broadcast stream into several channels, allowing a single radio station to split itself into multiple formats.

For evidence of what it might sound like locally, check out Tampa public radio station WUSF-89.7 FM's HD channel, where they are broadcasting many National Public Radio shows they can't afford to air on traditional (or terrestrial) radio, including the Tavis Smiley Show, Talk of the Nation and the Motley Fool Radio Show.

Users needs special radios to pick up HD signals, and so far, there are only a few models available for cars and one available for homes. This most recent alliance of commercial radio broadcasters, based in Orlando, will spend $200 million promoting HD Radio on their own airwaves, working to unify standards for receivers and speed their installation in new cars.

This is, of course, a reaction to the tremendous competition expected by satellite radio when popular shock jock Howard Stern heads to Sirius in January.

What a change from the days when broadcasters resisted allowing people to hear their station's broadcasts via streaming on the Internet. Now, radio stations are rushing to get into every new content platform available -- WUSF is also podcasting, for example -- well aware that one of these new technologies is the wave of the future.

The only question -- and a significant one, given that billons in profits and investments are stake -- is which one?

HD certainly seems like a silver bullet to many of public and commercial radio's woes. WUSF, long held hostage to its small niche of classical radio supporters, really needs to get more NPR programming on its air, and an HD channel (which is also available on their web site) is better than nothing. Commercial radio, overly focused on slicing and dicing a few profitable format choices, needs to take more chances with programming, cut the commercials and present more variety.

(HD alliance members Tuesday/Getty Images)

But a bunch of corporate suits who have managed to turn a near-monopoly of the radio industry into a sea of country, classic rock and conservative talk stations must do much more to convince the marketplace they will be the new home of diversified radio entertainment.

David Westin: Master Manipulator

Let's say you're a high-powered network TV news president.

You are unexpectedly forced to replace your top anchor when he passes away from lung cancer, and you want to go with two younger, face-of-the-future figures. But the guy next in line for the job, the guy with the most tenure who is now co-hosting your most profitable show, may want the job -- or at least want to look like he wanted the job.

If you're ABC News president David Westin, you do what you did when you wanted Ted Koppel to leave Nightline; you make him an offer he's bound to refuse.

According to the New York Times, that's essentially how Westin planned to work out the transition between deceased anchor Peter Jennings and his new team Elizabeth Vargas and Bob Woodruff -- offering Good Morning America stalwart Charlie Gibson the job for less than two years' transition time.

If Gibson would have accepted, Westin would have time to groom his real replacements for the job while avoiding the unseemly picture of shoving aside a guy widely liked inside and outside the Alphabet Network. Now that Gibson has declined, Westin can say he offered the job up, while keeping his A-Team in the highly-profitable morning news race.

And people wonder why this guy is the longest-tenured news president at the networks...

Another Brick in the Anchor Wall

ABC finally confirmed this morning what gossips have been whispering for weeks: Elizabeth Vargas and Bob Woodruff are the official replacements for anchor Peter Jennings on the network's evening news show, World News Tonight.

The move places two younger journalists in the evening news anchor spot, passing over Good Morning America co-host Charlie Gibson, who was looking less like the face of the evening news in the 21st Century, anyway. It also replaces dashing anchor Jennings, lauded as the James Bond of TV news until his Aug. 7 death from lung cancer, with two lesser known names.

This move also makes Vargas, who is of Puerto Rican and Irish heritage, the first Latina to hold an evening news anchor job -- comfortably reflective of the network's aggressive efforts to increase its Hispanic diversity.

Continunig the infatuation with live broadcasts that stated with the revamped Nightline, ABC will present Vargas and Woodruff live for Central and Pacific time broadcasts of World News Tonight -- presumably allowing each broadcast to be up-to-the-minute and a little different. The two will also contribute reports to ABC.com (can a blog be far behind?), including a preview of each night's evening newscast. (will they have any time for, like, actual reporting?)

Given NBC's success with Brian Williams, who has widened the lead in the evening news race, it seemed inevitable ABC brass would want younger, more mobile journalists helming its evening news show. But it also replaces another brand-name anchor with two lesser-known faces, just a week after Nightline replaced outgoing star Ted Koppel with three barely-known anchors.

All eyes are now turning to CBS, where Today show anchor Katie Couric has become their Holy Grail. The questions left: does her kind of high-priced anchor star power matter anymore in a fragmented, global news marketplace?

And does she remember what happened when her Today show colleague Bryant Gumbel ditched NBC to try "saving" CBS' morning news woes by anchoring the first incarnation of its Early Show? (Here's a hint: Gumbel's now semi-retired and working mostly for HBO.)

So far, with the ascent of Woodruff, Vargas, Williams and CNN's Anderson Cooper, the face of TV news in the 21st Century is younger, looser, more tech savvy, more mobile and cheaper than their predecessors.

In the ruthless environment of network TV, you have to ask: Besides the informality, does any of that describe the hugely-paid Couric?

Media Questions Answered -- Sort Of

Some days in this business, you have more questions than answers.

Here's a few which have been bugging me for awhile.

Question #1: If the Bush Admnistration Loves Liberty So Much, Why do They Keep Undermining the Free Press?

News that the Bushies were paying Iraqi newspapers to run pro-U.S. stories was hardly surprising to anyone who has followed their track record with the press on our own shores.

First, there was the creation of fake TV news stories by government agencies such as the Department of Agriculture -- basically video press releases disguised as news reports and given the antiseptic name of Video News Releases. Despite the fact that many TV stations chose to air such material without alerting viewers to their true nature, the Bush administration defended creating such material.

Then, news broke that the Bushies were secretly paying pseudo-journalists such as Armstrong williams and Maggie Gallagher to support their policies wthout revealing their financial ties to the administration. And White House officials' baldfaced attempts to spread information on covert CIA operative Valerie Plame to silence her husband's criticsms of the administration has resulted in a string of court decision imperiling the ability of journalists across the country to keep confidential sources.

My theory: a win-at-all-costs ethic combined with an intense desire to control press coverage has allowed this White House to develop press control strategies other politicans wouldn't dare attempt. Call me a leftst shill, but i always thought conservatives were supposed to support democracy.

Question #2: Why Are TV Networks Supporting Technology Which Could Destroy Them?

From ABC's deal to sell episodes of its hit shows via iTunes to CBS' hush-hush talks with Google, the big TV networks are pursuing options for delivering episodes on demand to consumers -- despite the danger of destroying their own economic model.

The danger comes in two ways: TV networks currently count on local stations to beam their programming to local households. But if the wealthiest, most tech savvy consumers take to downloading episodes, the most advertiser-attractive consumers will watch local stations less, diminishing their ad revenue and threatening their existence.

Also, networks count on the advertising revenue from rebroadcasts to pay the production fees for each show -- particularly high-end dramas such as Lost or Law & Order. But if those shows are increasingly viewed on demand, then re-runs are even less valuable.

Yes, I know, the nets are wisely trying to jump in the pool and play around before they suffer the fate of the record industry, which stuck its head in the sand until most of its best customers got their music for free online. But they must be careful or the will simply speed the pace of their own demise.

Question # 3: Why Is a Republican FCC Chairman Championing the Further Stratification of Cable TV?

Kevin Martin says he is pushing a la carte cable TV -- a system allowing cable TV users to pick the cable channels they will subscribe to in the standard tier -- because he wants to allow folks to filter out explicit chanels such as Comedy Central or FX. But the effect of his solution may be to only further segregate quality TV outlets into high-priced tiers.

Some studies estimate kid favorites such as Nickelodeon and Disney Channel might have to charge HBO-level fees if revenue from standard cable subscribtions isn't made available to all channels. Of course, since nearly everyone connected to the issue has a vested interest, finding independent analysis is tough.

Still, at a time when talent such as Howard Stern is moving to satellite radio and on demand services threaten to move hit network shows out of the free TV arena, the price tag for access to quality media programming seems to be rising all the time.

A Few Week's End Shout Outs

SHOUT OUT NUMBER ONE: To blog queen Arianna Huffington, who was cool enough to mention me in her item about why Bill O'Reilly hates the St. Petersburg Times. I really, truly think it's more about our Al-Arian coverage (insisting on a fair trial and all), but I'll take kudos where I can get them.

Feel free to join the 10,000 folks who have signed Arianna's petition to join O'Reilly's blacklist themselves.

SHOUT OUT NUMBER TWO:
To fellow O'Reilly "Enemies List" member Keith Olbermann, who had the stones to name Fox News Channel as Worst Persons in the World Thursday for having changed the listing for items originally sold as "holiday" ornaments on their Web site. Since O'Reilly and fellow anchor John Gibson have written books about how liberals want to strip the Christmas label off everything, Olbermann Wednesday noted the hypocrisy of FNC selling "holiday" ornaments. By Thursday, "Christmas" was back in full effect.

Olbermann noted: "This holiday time of year, let's be forgiving. Let's just all be happy in the knowledge that somebody is finally going to hang Bill O'Reilly's ornaments from a tree somewhere! FOX News Channel, today's worst persons in the world!"

This came one day after Olbermann named O'Reilly worst person in the world three times over. When I grow up, I want to be just like Keith.

Is The New Face of Network TV News...

this....?

Or this....?

Or this....?

Speculation is rampant over who will fill the vacant evening news anchor seats at CBS and ABC, and how those choices will reflect each network's vision of network TV news delivery in the 21 Century.

At ABC, insiders say weekend anchor Elizabeth Vargas has the inside track on replacing Peter Jennings, partially because ABC News chief David Westin has not been shy about saying he wants someone in the job for 20 years -- cutting out the obvious choice, sixtysomething Good Morning America co-host Charlie Gibson -- and partially because Disney brass don't want to break up the popular Gibson/Diane Sawyer paring on GMA.

At CBS, new news chief Sean McManus hasn't been shy about courting Today show goddess Katie Couric, whose contract expires in spring 2006. Her choice: go to a third-place news operation struggling to redefine itself in the modern age for bucketloads of money and the ever-shrinking prestige of anchoring an evening newscast -- or accept bucketloads of money to stay in the hottest daypart for TV news and accept that she'll never be the official face of NBC News.

While it's always a bad idea to bet against ego in the TV business, I'm thinking Katie won't want to do all the heavy lifting to reinvent CBS News by herself when she could rule most of the world at NBC, minus all the globe-trotting.

Today marks one year exactly since NBC replaced Tom Brokaw with firefighter-turned-newsman Brian Williams. And the network looks positively prescient for drafting Williams from the farm team of cable news, taking two years to groom a guy who connects to the old voice-of-God anchor sensibility, but is hip enough to trade quips on late-night talk shows and keep his own way-cool blog.

But at a time when so many anchors seem so interchangeable and shrinking revenue makes big paychecks for anchor stars less feasible, I'm betting we see smaller names take the helm at ABC and CBS -- a move which will, ironically, only hasten the viewer exodus from evening news.