Stumbles By American Idol Frontrunners Place My Predictions in Doubt

The easiest way for me to ensure someone fails on a reality show, is to predict their victory.

At least it seems that way after last night's American Idol episode, in which the two singers I gave the best odds of winning gave the some of shakiest performances of their time on the show.

Already, you're on cheesy ground when the theme is songs from the year of your birth (does it hurt that the oldest contestant was born during my freshman year of high school -- yes it does!) And who told David Archuleta to choose a hit by some guy from Australia we've never heard of? Did Carly Smithson really think she was going to win with a Bonnie Tyler song?

And how long did it take you to figure out that David Cook was singing a Michael Jackson tune?

So far, there's Cook and then there's everybody else in this competition. Listening to his take on MJ's Billie Jean, redone as a slow, grungy rock ballad, actually brought a few goosebumps. He raises the bar every week with daring musical chances, and every week he manages a new way to top himself. Regardless of how the votes go, Simon Cowell better have a contract waiting for this dude when the dust clears.

And I'm still having trouble understanding the phenomenon that is Michael Johns. Chikezie does a faithful rendition of a Luther Vandross hit and he gets disrespected in the worst way; Johns basically offers a faithful version of Queen's We are the Champions, and he's the second coming of the Lizard King?

Basically, I'm assuming Paula and Simon both want to sleep with him. It's the only sensible explanation.

ON ABC's Dancing with the Stars, executives are probably just hoping somebody clicked over during Idol's commercial breaks. I was surprised to see illusionist big mouth Penn Jillete get his walking papers so early -- I must have underestimated the leverage a radio personality like Adam Carolla, who deserved the walk of shame last night, can generate (or the animosity a relentless motormouth like Jillette produces). The failure of Monica Seles, a neophyte dancer with no personality or fan base, was no surprise.

Considering that I picked footballer Jason Taylor to win, I'm expecting him to actually break a leg by next week's competition. One way or another, my predictions are going to come true....