Idol/Dancing picks: Archuleta, Taylor will win

After all these years dissecting reality TV competitions, you think I would have learned.

No good comes for critics who dare to predict the fickle outcomes of smash hits such as Dancing with the Stars and American Idol. If we get it right, it's expected, if we get it wrong, we're doofuses (which we kinda are, anyway).

No matter -- I'm going out on a limb to make predictions for the outcome of TV's two most-watched shows tonight and tomorrow. Vacuous teen idol in the making David Archuleta is taking home the prize on American Idol Wednesday, and Miami Dolphins star Jason Taylor will win Dancing with the Stars tonight.

Here's my thinking: Archuleta has been the kid to beat throughout Idol's run, as the only contestant to survive that cardinal Idol sin, forgetting the words to a song during a performance. He's gotten better as the show has unfolded, which helps lots, and he's cute enough to inspire young tween girls and their moms to vote for him.

When cutie pie Jason Castro got booted two weeks ago, Archuleta likely got more of his votes (I call them the "himbo" demographic) and competitor David Cook seems much more suited to the Clay Aiken role -- the runner-up bound to outshine the winner.

As for Dancing with the Stars -- I laid out my thinking about the show in this blog post in March, where I predicted it would be a showdown between Kristi Yamaguchi, Jason Taylor and Mario. I was wrong about Mario -- Cristian De la Fuentes' pluck in recovering from am injury seemed to win more points with fans - but I think my other points still stand.

DWTS fans love cute, male athletes who grow as dancers during the show. Last year, former Spice Girl Mel B. was the better dancer, but lost to the more charismatic Helio Castroneves -- an outcome I predicted back then. This year, I'm thinking that title belongs to Taylor, even though Yamaguchi is so much better than he as a dancer, it may skew the results.

We'll find out tonight, either way....