Amid continuing newspaper circulation declines, conclusions should be carefully drawn

Returning from vacation today, I saw news reports from Monday about circulation figures indicating continuing losses in paid circulation for newspapers across the country.

U.S. newspapers saw daily circulation fall 7.1 percent and Sunday circulation dip 5.4 percent during the period from October to March, compared with the same six-month time period a year earlier.

Newspaper executives -- including Times Publishing Co. chairman, CEO and editor Paul Tash, have explained that circulation losses for some papers have come from deliberate business changes (for the St. Petersburg Times, we stopped including Monday newspapers with a Sunday subscription) and that readership for media companies that own newspapers has increased.

This was a point I also made a few weeks ago during a public forum with Frontline executive producer David Fanning; more folks than ever are experiencing our journalism, thanks to online outlets and new platforms such as TBT, PolitiFact and Bay magazine.

But the primary way we make money is in decline, as classified advertising suffers, display advertising slumps and the numbers of people who pay for subscriptions to the newspaper drop.

So concluding that subscription declines are the result of political bias or journalistic ineptitude is, I think, missing the point. We're in the midst of a historic shift of consumer habits, from platforms where media companies made lots of money on the audience (traditional newspaper subscriptions) to places where they earn much less money on them (online platforms, free tabloids).

Which leads to several questions: Should media companies try to combat audience attrition, or find ways to make more money on the platforms that are growing? And what if both strategies fall short?

Click below to see the circulation figures for the Top 25 newspapers Sunday and weekly, along with Florida's biggest newspapers. *

Top 25 U.S. Newspapers by Daily Circulation

USA TODAY                                         2,113,725    -7.46%
WALL STREET JOURNAL                   2,082,189    +0.61%
NEW YORK TIMES                              1,039,031    -3.55%
LOS ANGELES TIMES                           723,181    -6.55%
WASHINGTON POST                             665,383    -1.16%
NEW YORK DAILY NEWS                      602,857    -14.26%
NEW YORK POST                                  558,140    -20.55%
CHICAGO TRIBUNE                               501,203    -7.47%
HOUSTON CHRONICLE                        425,138   -13.96%
ARIZONA REPUBLIC                              389,701   -5.72%
DENVER POST                                       371,728     N/A*
NEWSDAY                                               368,194    -3.01%
DALLAS MORNING NEWS                     331,907    -9.88%
MINNEAPOLIS STAR-TRIBUNE             320,076    -0.71%
CHICAGO SUN-TIMES                           312,141    -0.04%
SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE             312,118    -15.72%
BOSTON GLOBE                                    302,638    -13.68%
CLEVELAND PLAIN DEALER                291,630    -11.70%
DETROIT FREE PRESS                         290,730    -5.90%
PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER                     288,298   -13.72%
NEWARK STAR-LEDGER                       287,082   -16.82%
ST. PETERSBURG TIMES                      283,093   -10.42%
OREGONIAN                                           268,512   -11.76%
ATLANTA JOURNAL CONSTITUTION    261,828    -19.91%
SAN DIEGO UNION-TRIBUNE               261,253     -9.53%

Top 25 U.S. Newspapers by Sunday circulation

Title                                                        March 09        +/-  

NEW YORK TIMES                              1,451,233    -1.70%
LOS ANGELES TIMES                        1,019,388    -7.49%
WASHINGTON POST                             868,965    -2.38%
CHICAGO TRIBUNE                               858,256    -4.50%
NEW YORK DAILY NEWS                      644,766    -8.43%
DETROIT FREE PRESS                         585,022    -3.52%
HOUSTON CHRONICLE                         583,364    -7.81%
PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER                     550,400    -12.03%
DENVER POST                                       526,235    N/A*
ARIZONA REPUBLIC                              516,562    0.20%
MINNEAPOLIS STAR TRIBUNE             497,678    -6.93%
DALLAS MORNING NEWS                     474,923    -8.71%
BOSTON GLOBE                                    466,665    -11.27%
ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION   462,011    -7.07%
NEWSDAY                                               426,510    -3.44%
ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH                   415,815    0.30%
ST. PETERSBURG TIMES                      413,929    -4.36%
NEWARK STAR-LEDGER                       404,903    -19.08%
CLEVELAND PLAIN DEALER                 393,352    -8.11%
SEATTLE TIMES                                     376,515    -7.99%
MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINEL        361,355    -6.03%
NEW YORK POST                                   357,168    -11.00%
SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE             354,752    -16.45%
BALTIMORE SUN                                   351,243    -5.83%
KANSAS CITY STAR                              333,006    -3.57%

* Denver Post's averages only cover the one-month after the Rocky Mountain News folded, rather than the entire six-month period.

SOURCE: Audit Bureau of Circulations FAS-FAX for six months ending in March 2009 and March 2008.

Florida newspaper circulation figures:

Newspaper                    Monday-Friday     Change       Sunday     Change
St. Petersburg Times     283,093               - 10.42%     413,929     - 4.36%
Orlando Sentinel            206,205                - 9.4%        315,298     - 5.0%
Miami Herald                 202,122                - 15.8%      270,166     -13.2%
Sun-Sentinel                  195,522                - 10.4%      285,196     - 6.0%
Tampa Tribune                195,277                - 11.4%     284,583     + 0.3%
Florida Times-Union         122,655                - 15.1%     177,591     - 11.8%
Palm Beach Post             143,221               - 12.9%     178,928     - 8.5%
Sarasota Herald-Tribune     97,254                - 15.4%     116,294     - 13.6%

Source: Audit Bureau of Circulations Fas-Fax as reported by St. Petersburg Times

Comments

[OneNewspaperTown]

I liked your post until you quoted John Edwards.

[Lin Young]

I think that papers need to do both, try to increase circulation and try to make more money on new platforms. But both will be hard in this ongoing recession because individuals and businesses are hurting.

I think people forget that newspapers have traditionally been hurt first when the economy was headed toward a recession and also usually are among the last businesses to recover. That's because businesses begin cutting costs on advertising when they are hurting, before they take the more drastic step of laying people off.

This recession officially started in December 2007, but it didn't hatch full-blown. In other words, the economy had been headed down for a while before it became an official recession. Newspapers were still doing pretty well in late 2005-early 2006.

In addition, businesses had pulled way back on advertising after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. The economy really suffered from that for a while. So that put a great deal of pressure on advertising and on newspaper revenue. In some ways, the country never totally recovered from that, it certainly hurt the nation's airlines badly.

In short, our nation's economy is changing. And newspapers are caught in those changes that see many people losing living wage jobs forever. Although President Obama says that we can't do anything about losing jobs to outsourcing and that they are only low-skill, low-pay jobs, the truth is many of those jobs are high-skill, high-pay. Such as mid-level lawyer's earning $70,000 to $140,000 annually losing their jobs to lawyers in India who can work for 1/5th the salary. The cost of living in India is lower. The government provides free water, and subsidizes everything from food to gasoline. India also subsidizes electricity to some businesses and gives it free to others. How can America compete? We have also had mid-level bank manager jobs calling for MBAs and paying $60,000 to $140,000 outsourced to India.

So our economy is changing and many of those changes are impacting newspapers. Newspapers just need to do everything they can to increase subscribers, increase revenue and probably decrease expenses, which will mean slashing salaries and benefits. But that is the new reality in America. We are becoming downwardly mobile. Or as John Edwards said, the American dream is slipping away.

[joe hillman]

doom:

to further one of your premises, 10 years ago, there were two choices locally: times and tribune.

now, there are dozens (online).

[DoctorDoom]

Eric Eric Eric,

Circulation is down because demand is down. The consumer does not want what you are selling.

And Proud Times Employee, are you really saying there was no decline in advertising revenue until the recession? Get you head out of the sand.

As fish wraps go, this one is as good as any other. A little to the left for my tastes but most papers are anyway. It lines the bird cage just as nicely.

Your buggy analogy misses the point widely Eric. The reason the buggy died out was because people already had a more appealing alternative. It is the same way with the newspaper. People get their information faster and with whatever spin they choose rather than wait to read it in the paper.

To all the print dinosaurs we say, "get out of the fast lane grandma - you are moving too slowly for the real world."

[James]

Let's see, cut your product down to the bare bones during the week, cut back coverage in various areas, including sports, and wonder why your circulation drops. Hmmmm. The product is not what it used to be. Yes, the paper won two Pulitzer Prizes which is terrific, and yet you continue to dumb things down. Short stories. Charts. All have replaced some of the great stuff of the past -- the stuff that still wins awards and would hold readers.

[Bulletinizer]

Says Eric Deggans;

"So concluding that subscription declines are the result of political bias or journalistic ineptitude is, I think, missing the point."

You just keep thinking this way and I think you'll soon think your way onto the unemployment line where you won't have to think at all... of that, I'm sure.

[Deknup]

What do you think creative loafing will do?

[Proud Times Employee]

Yes, advertising revenues are down...but that's because advertisers are struggling with their own businesses, not because they don't get results with the Times.

The Times is becoming leaner and more efficient, but we are still the number one media company in Tampa Bay, and the largest newspaper in Florida.

We are also independently owned by a non-profit school of journalism, so our profits do not go to stockholders or owners, they get reinvested in the school and our business, which is precisely why we are still winning Pulitzer Prizes while other papers are shrinking their coverage.

We also give back to the community in countless ways such as scholarships, sponsorships, Newspaper in Education, just to name a few.

Every community in the United States should be so fortunate to have a newspaper like the Times, and everyone in Tampa Bay should be supporting us and applauding our efforts, even when they don't agree with our opinion on a particular topic. The purpose of a good newspaper, after all, is to promote debate, and freedom to debate and express one's opinion is the backbone of democracy.

Consumer habits may shift, but we will learn to adapt as well. The Times is alive and well - 125 years and counting - and we are not going anywhere!

[Greg]

I think sites such as Craigslist or eBay should start partnering with newspapers. Both could share the revenues for ads/classifieds they make, and both would increase their revenues.

[Eric Deggans]

Well, I think it's sad to see anybody lose their jobs en masse.

I also think its an open question how the public will get in-depth reporting, especially on local issues, if newspapers vanish or are largely cut back.

I mean, when the horse and buggy went away, it was replaced by a better form of transportation. We don't know right now, if newspapers go away, that they will be replaced with a better form of journalism.

And I don't blame people for being concerned about that.

[joe hillman]

>>> one also wonders why it's sad that newspapers will shrink and make less money? sad for whom? the owners? stockholders? laid off writers and editors? <<<

ding, ding, ding!

[OneNewspaperTown]

One other item to note is in what time frame all these third party papers delivered. Slamming some 250,000 third party papers into the market over the course of several Sundays will increase the overall average. Unfortunately, advertisers think this amount of papers is being delivered consistently every Sunday, when it is not. That is why it has its own category on the Publisher Statement and ABC Audit.
Unbelievable.

[dreaming]

one is struck by the numbers: even though down, they are still quite substantial. the wsj is actually over 2m per day with the only paid website.

one also wonders why it's sad that newspapers will shrink and make less money? sad for whom? the owners? stockholders? laid off writers and editors?

lost amid the hand-wringing over what to do about newspapers is the fact that they still make quite a bit of money and publish quite a few hard copies each day.

they may no longer be the behemoths they were back in the 70s and 80s. but neither are record companies, GM and Chrysler or IBM, to name just a few.

[OneNewspaperTown]

It is laughable that The Tampa Tribune is showing an increase in Sunday circulation. They did so by buying circulation. If you look at their "other" category, which includes Third Party Sales (not demanded by the end user) and NIE (Schools), it almost doubled. Yet their store sales and home delivery fell on Sunday by almost 9,000 copies. This was all done to preserve preprint advertising at the expense of the advertisers. They juiced the Publisher Statement with Third Party sales. What a bunch of crap and advertisers should take note.

[William]

Eric,

"We're in the midst of a historic shift of consumer habits, from platforms where media companies made lots of money on the audience (traditional newspaper subscriptions) to places where they earn much less money on them (online platforms, free tabloids)."

Exactly! why couldn't Paul Tash basically say that? It's obvious newspapers will shrink and make less money in the future. Sad, but true.