With Mad Men and 30 Rock poised for big wins, Sunday's Emmys could look like a rerun

Every year, the Emmys face the same question:

Do the same people get nominated every year because they are always doing the best work on television, or because Emmys voters like them a lot?

My experience as a music critic covering the Grammys leaves me a bit cynical on this score -- I still remember one recording studio owner and Grammy voter laughing as he explained how he handed his ballots over to his secretary every year "because she listens to more music than I do".

For whatever reason, this year NBC's 30 Rock and AMC's Mad Men are getting the most Emmy love, with 22 and 16 nominations, respectively.

Considering that they were the second and third-highest winners last year (30 Rock got seven last year and Mad Men won six), it seems the Emmy academy loves nothing more than a good rerun.

Still, here's my take who's winning and losing come Sunday's contest --

BEST COMEDY SERIES
Entourage, Family Guy, Flight of the Conchords, How I Met Your Mother, The Office, 30 Rock, Weeds

Should win and will win: 30 Rock, because Emmy loves the show and star Tina Fey.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock; Steve Carell, The Office; Jemaine Clement, Flight of the Conchords; Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory; Tony Shalhoub, Monk; Charlie Sheen, Two and a Half Men

Should and will win: Big Bang's Parsons. Because he's a new face on a show Emmy might love. And Baldwin's too annoying to win twice in row.

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Christina Applegate, Samantha Who?; Toni Collette, United States of Tara; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, The New Adventures of Old Christine; Tina Fey, 30 Rock; Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds; Sarah Silverman, The Sarah Silverman Program

Should win: Tara's Collette, for making a mom with split personalities believable and side-splitting.

Will win: Fey. See first entry.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
Big Love,Breaking Bad, Damages, Dexter, House, Lost, Mad Men

Should and will win: Lost. For being the only series to get better in the wake of last year's writer's strike.

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Simon Baker, The Mentalist; Gabriel Byrne, In Treatment; Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad; Michael C. Hall, Dexter; Jon Hamm, Mad Men; Hugh Laurie, House

Should win: Dexter's Hall. For making the most monstrous character -- an unapologetic serial killer -- funny and sympathetic.

Will win: House's Laurie or Mad Men's Hamm -- because both are about due and didn't win last year.

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Glenn Close, Damages; Sally Field, Brothers & Sisters; Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU; Holly Hunter, Saving Grace; Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men; Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer

Should and will win: Mad Men's Moss -- a new face doing great work on a show Emmy loves.

REALITY COMPETITION PROGRAM
The Amazing Race, American Idol, Dancing With The Stars, Project Runway, Top Chef

Should win: American Idol - tackles the toughest task in TV, building a new pop star before our eyes during a live show, creating the most-watched show on television.

Will win: Amazing Race. Because it always does.

HOST FOR A REALITY OR REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
Tom Bergeron, Dancing With the Stars; Phil Keoghan, The Amazing Race; Heidi Klum, Project Runway; Padma Lakshmi (Host) and Tom Colicchio (Co-Host), Top Chef; Jeff Probst, Survivor; Ryan Seacrest, American Idol.

Should win: Keoghan. Because I've never understood why the guy who hosts and helps produce the most Emmy-winning reality show on TV, didn't win an Emmy last year.

Will win: Seacrest. 

VARIETY, MUSIC, OR COMEDY SERIES
The Colbert Report, The Daily Show With Jon Stewart, Late Show With David Letterman, Real Time With Bill Maher, Saturday Night Live

Should win: Daily Show. Still highlighting the absurdities of political and media life, from pointing out how conservatives are championing as a minority party things they criticized as a majority party, to wondering where the mainstream media was on exposing dysfunction at ACORN.

Will win: Saturday Night Live. Game-changing Palin satire will steamroller everybody.

Comments

[Lili]

Cannot BELIEVE Mad Men beat Dexter at the Emmy's. Ridiculous. MM isn't even in the same class as the great and wonderful Dexter.

[Jerry]

The Office deserves to beat 30 Rock in best comedy series and best actor/comedy series.

Why? Because the Office is better at "the funny," with a riotous lead character, and a large cast of other very funny folks, even in the smallest roles (Creed, anyone? Kevin?). And also because, unlike Steve Carell, Alec Baldwin is a blow-hard and jerk in real life. And also because "30 Rock" is trendy, etc.

Sad that "reality" television even has any Emmy categories, as "reality" TV has zilch to do with quality television.

Mad Men is good, although it's gradually turned into a glorified soap opera.

Why does Damages keep getting the shaft? Cast - Close, Danson - is superb, and plotting, at least for the first season, was inventive and gripping.

Does anybody think Two and a Half Men is funny, or ever was?

Next year: Look for Curb to get more love (for the Seinfeld-reunion plot), and Bored to Death to get some attention.