Call me Mr. Luckbox ... well, sort of

What? Chris Cosenza having luck in a poker game? Step back! But it's true, to an extent. Last night we had our monthly cash game/SNG at Gambit's house and I was the benefactor of some suckouts for the first time in recent memory. The cash game was probably the most uneventful cash game in my career, never getting up more than $10 (I didn't say units, happy?) and never being down more than $8, ultimately losing $2.50. I think I played too tight, but I just never had any really decent starting hands. Everything, however, turned around in the tournament.

I was chipleader for most, if not all, of the tournament, taking advantage of some good hands and good betting opportunities to slowly build my stack. But a few hands came up that I'd like to discuss.

This first one came vs. NewScott (a.k.a Snuffy): With the blinds 100-200 it got folded around to me in the SB. I had A♥4♥. I looked at his chips and he was the shortstack with about 800-900 (it might've been a little more but it happened so fast I think this is right). So he has 200 invested and I make it 500 to go. I chose this amount because I thought it'd look a little suspicious and he might think I was trying to get a little more out of him and would fold. Not that I wouldn't take a shot at eliminating him with A♥4♥ because I would -- I was the chipleader at this point with about 3K. But still, if I could just take it down and get him that much closer to elimination that'd be fine with me. At this point we're 5-handed and paying three spots (Fasso's reign came to an end fairly early). Anyway, he thought and thought and then finally just called, which shocked me. With 1K out there, if I hit the flop at all there'd be no way for me to fold since he only had about 500 or so left. The flop came 6-6-4 rainbow. I pushed with my two pair and he instacalled. What does he have? Are we dead? Was he thinking and thinking because he had a HUGE pair? What does he have? Anyone? Bueller?

OK, he had 5♠3♣ (though he may have been suited, which means nothing really). WOW! He called off what I think was about a third of his remaining stack to a raise from the chipleader with 5♠3♣. He's getting 2.3-1 on his money, but I didn't know what to think of this play. He knows I pretty much can't fold and my raise tells him he's crushed. With only 4 or 5 BBs left isn't he in shove or fold mode here? So he was open-ended and I had my two pair. The turn? 7♥, which did nothing for me because there wasn't a heart on the flop and, of course, completed his straight. The guys moaned when that card came, and I was about to start my usual whining, but then I said, "Wait a minute! A six or a four please." And BAM! A 4♦ on the river gave me a boat. Snuffy wasn't happy. He had a rough night and that only punctuated it. He didn't even say goodbye. Sorry for the re-suck Snuff, but you sucked first. 8-)

Ultimately I made the money when Steve, who I think is the best player in our game, eliminated Martin of the TiltMonkey clan when his pocket 4s held up vs. Martin's Q♣8♣. Gambit cashed as well, finishing 3rd when Steve woke up with AA after Gambit pushed from the button.

Steve and I played heads up for a decent amount of time, and I had a 2-1 chip lead on him. Then he limped from the button on one hand, and he hadn't limped at all during heads-up play, so immediately I thought this was suspicious. But I looked down at K-10 and just knocked the table. The board came K high and he bet out. I raised and he called. The turn paired the board with eights and he shoved. Mathematically I had to call and he turned over AA again. He got aces twice in a span of 15 minutes, so that was pretty damn lucky on his part (the biggest hand I had ALL night, including the cash game was QQ and I didn't even get action). Now he had a 2-1 lead. A little later he raised on the button and I had K♦ 9♦ . I shoved, as I was getting short. He called with A7o and I turned a K♥ to win the hand. There's another suckout!!!! I can't believe it!!! So now I have the lead again, and I kept increasing it until the final hand of the night. I had Q♠J♠ and raised to 1,200 with the blinds at 150-300 and a 50 ante. He went all-in and it was only another 1,000 or so for me to call. He turned over K♣J♣. So again I was behind and if he won we would've been even or so. A beautiful queen came on the flop but the board was 2♠Q♣2♣ so now I had to dodge a king or a club. I did, and that was suckout No. 3 on the night, and this one gave me the title.

It's a weird feeling to go into a hand crushed and then suck out. I drove home last night (or actually this morning) and though I won I didn't feel very good about the suckouts. Of course the one vs. Snuffy didn't bother me since I had the best hand preflop and postflop and only had to resuck after his suckout. But vs. Steve I felt pretty bad. But that's poker, right? And it's not online so you can't say it's rigged. LOL! Besides, who says I can't get lucky once in a while? I played very well all of the other hands.

So I'm 2-for-2 in my past two live SNGs, including the Derby Lane satellite. Can't wait for the Derby Lane tournament next Sunday.

-- Chris

Comments

[jherky]

Nice suckouts. You must have payed Blaz this month.

[Chris Cosenza]

LOL!!!

[Michael Paul]

Way to go Barry!

Well, you just proved that Gambit's home game is rigged and his RNG is faulty! ;-)

Michael

[NewScott]

OK let's break down the tournament last night. I was massively hit with the deck early. In the first few levels I got A,A K,K Q,Q 10,10 twice, 9,9 and 8,8 along with A,K twice, A,Q and A,10 twice. With all of those I had my stack up to 2800 from the original 1500.

The s**t that has been happening to me way too much lately is missing losing coin flips, losing when I have a dominating hand and when I do hit a draw I still end up losing.

OK I am at 2800 and get Q,Q in EP. I raise to 225, Gambit shoves for 1300 and I call. He has A,K hits his A and I am down to 1500 again.

I pick my spots to stay afloat and make some really tough folds. I blind down to 875 when the hand in question comes up. I have 5s3s in the BB and 200 of my 875 is in. This is not an all-in or fold situation. It's an all-in situation 100% of the time. With my suited cards I am getting all my $ in every time here. Here is why I only call. Since I am going all-in anyway on this hand, why not pull a version of the stop n go (even though I am not in position to do it). If you happen to miss maybe there is a slight chance of you folding. Probably not but you are gonna call 100% pre-flop.

When we flip the cards over I have 10 or 11 outs twice. Can't get a better spot than that.

I would make this play every time. I am just sick of losing when ahead, even and behind. I could not have played that game any better last night. I have other comments but I will save them for another time.

[Chris Cosenza]

Yeah, you had some tough beats, and you even said early on that you were getting hit with the deck and that only meant bad news for you later on.

I think you could have folded preflop though. My raise means you HAVE to hit that flop somehow because with only 300 more to fight with I can't fold to that no matter what comes. A stop-and-go can't work, and yes I'm glad you said you aren't in the position to make that play. You still have 875 and are in the SB on the next hand. Even if you fold that you have 775 and one double up gets you back to your starting stack. I would have waited, but that's just me.

Hope you don't mind that I posted our hand.

[NewScott]

If I folded I would have had 675 (instead of 875) with 100 of it going in the SB.

[WestBias]

I think with him being in the big blind he is almost forced to go all in at some point in that hand. If NewScotts numbers are right then he would have to push in the small blind. I dont know I think you have to take chances when you're that low in chips with the blinds at what they were. If you dont take a chance you're done for. I dont know if you watched poker after dark this week but just look at what happend to Michael Mizrachi, he was a dead duck for like three nights.

First comment, Love the show.

[Frink]

Since we are complaining about beats :-)

In the last 7 home game tournies I've finished (in no particular order) 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, bubbled in 4th (55 < A6o - 4 flush on the river), last (KK < QQ - turned Q), last (AA < 66 - flopped 6), and last (JJ < 88 - 4 flush on the river). Those 4 beats are pretty sick.

[Chris Cosenza]

Yes, those were some bad beats Frink. Of course you have three cashes in six tourneys, so quit your whining. LOL! Since I delivered one of those bad beats I'll shut up now. 8-)

I think NewScott still could have waited, but we could argue that for days I guess.

[Blazman]

jherky, I am merely a proxy for the poker gods. You send me money and I pass it along to them. For Chris they tell me that for $8 they will allow him to win in this situation 9% of the time. So Chris you can just go ahead and transfer the $8 to Blazman on Full Tilt, Cake, or Poker Stars that would be fine.

-Blaz

[bajas64]

I like what newscott did there. I really think he had to push. I don't quite understand the fancy moves. If you know you are gonna push no matter what after looking at your cards, then there is no need to get fancy. Just my thought.

[The Nit]

Newscott-

It's hard to comment on your call with 35 in that situation because we don't have all the information (other stack sizes at the table, are blinds changing soon, payout structure).

However, I still think you have to fold this hand and hopefully get to shove any 2 if folded to you in the small blind on the next hand. 35 plays terribly in a headsup confrontation and is way behind Chris's range considering he raised.

The stop-n-go isn't an option because I seriously doubt Chris will fold to any bet here considering pot odds (some weaker players might but we'll assume Chris isn't one of them ;)) The stop-n-go is a better play with a bigger stack (8-10x bb).

The other question I would have is, how did you let your stack fall to 3.5x the big blind? You probably should have shoved any 2 UTG on the previous hand or shoved something marginal before that.

[Blazman]

Snuffy you are the BB in this scenario. You have between 4-5 big blinds. In my opinion the only mistake was NOT pushing on the previous hand. You can't really let the blinds come through you so one might consider pushing UTG, you have enough where you might get to take the blinds down where the BB does not have to call. Once you allow the BB to get to you you're just about committed to this hand with no prospect of the opponents folding, and after the blinds go through your opponents have to call.

-Blazman