One Minute Mystery: Case of the Magician's Box

We're at the final table of a MTT, with 6 players left and 4 making the money.

Blinds are 2k/4K. Chipleaders have about 75K. It's folded around to the button, who contemplates before pushing all-in for 25K.

The SB calls all-in quickly.

In the BB, we look down at 10-10 with 22K in chips left.

What do we do?

Times file photo

Comments

[gui from brazil]

I'd call instantly! The guys M is about 4 and even worse, his relative M is about 2! He could be going all in with anything, ang doubling up he'd have close to 2/3 of the leaders!

[Godard]

Fold fold fold! TT is NOT the hand you want to have against two opponents. You may have pot odds if no one has a higher pair, but you are most likely looking at 2 or 3 overcards, making you a coinflip at best to triple up. I am not risking my tournament at this point. You need to make the money. Be in a position where you can PUUUSH with hands and have that fold equity.

That said, I am probably calling with QQ in this situation. And probably folding JJ.

[JLBSox]

Easy fold

[longclaw]

You gotta push

1. Fourth place only gets their buy-in back
2. You are almost out of fold equity. If you fold here, and have to fold the next ten hands you will have 10k left. Are we going to see a better hand between now and then?
3. Against their expected range we are getting more than the right price, against
(22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo)
and (77+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A8o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo)
Our Tens have about 47% equity, even if their range is tighter than this we are still getting the right price.

If we want to win the whole thing we won't get a better shot

[simon (uk)]

personally i am calling this one.

the button was likely to be bullying the medium stacked BB and SB, thinking they want to make the money so will fold pretty much anything other than a premium hand here. Cant really say 100% if its the right or wrong thing to do, as theres plenty of information missing which you would have if you were really there.

Theres quite a range of hands here that you could be dominating the button with, like he could have only 3 outs if he has a weak suited ace, he could be drawing even thinner with pocket 9's and lower, both of which could justify his pushing all in here as it doesn't really look like he wants a call from his all in push. the small blind is a different story and his call doesnt tell us much, but do we have him covered or not, or did he have a tiny stack and was ready to go with anything? we dont know.

so personally im getting my chips in now while i have good pot odds to almost triple up and not be blinded away on the bubble. Im REALLY hoping i've got the button and Sb both crushed when they both flip over pocket 9's lol

(that would be nice, but maybe a lot to ask for)

simon

[Mike Schultz]

Easy FOLD! This sounds like a Full Tilt 2 table SNG. It is always better to be the person going all-in instead of calling an all-in. Especially with an all in and a call ahead of you I agree with Godard that you are probably against too many overcards that you have to dodge to survive. Just FOLD and wait for a different situation. I realize that you have only 5 big blinds but you lose one more player or cripple one on this hand and play on the bubble rocks!

[Godard]

If you fold the BB and SB this hand, you'll have 20k left, or 5xBB. That is enough for fold equity. And you're not worried about getting a better hand, you're worried about getting all of your money in FIRST and making other people make mistakes). Stealing just one pot increases your stack by 25% with no risk.

>>>2. You are almost out of fold equity. If you fold here, and have to fold the next ten hands you will have 10k left. Are we going to see a better hand between now and then?

[Bulldogmafia]

easy fold.

[daedalus]

Fold (but it would take me a minute or 2 to work through this one live - another great OMM!).

Gonna miss the Columbo soundclips but change is good.

[loser64]

You need to push.

[Ashwin]

I would fold here as well. I think your hand doesn't match up too well against the ranges of your opponents. The best case scenario is that they have two lower pairs which is unlikely in my opinion, and you may well be up against a higher pair, or at least several overcards.
Your stack is over a quarter of the chipleaders', so a push at an opportune time in the next round should have some fold equity. Plus, you may have made the money by then as well, as button is likely to get knocked out this hand.