I've never given luck, good or bad, much credence once I read SuperSystem a handful of years ago. Doyle Brunson made me understand there's much skill in poker and consistent winning is not tied to luck. There may be luck on any given hand or even session, but we all know the cliche: In the long run the skilled players will get all of the money.
So when someone says luck dominates poker, I always steam a little, and try to explain to them why they're indeed ignorant. And ignorant isn't a harsh word or an insult. It merely means "being uneducated in a specific area," and in this case, when people don't understand how to play poker and they always lose, they say they were unlucky. And I'm the first to say "No, you just need to understand the game better." I'm actually working on a piece about this for the paper.
But lately, the losing I've been experiencing online has me wondering about this luck factor. I keep waiting for variance to catch up, but I'm not sure my bankroll can handle it. And it took my wife listening to another one of my sick hands to point it out to me. She said "I think you're just unlucky online." I started to laugh, but then I wondered if there's actually merit in that point of view. And this post comes immediately after I finally won a $26 token with my FTP points last night (and I needed to get lucky one time during the match. I'll talk about that a little later in another post).
So here's a hand that sparked the conversation, but I'm not whining about it (calm down Zerbet, if you're even reading this blog anymore) and it's not a bad beat, just an unfortunate turn card. I'd been up and down playing NLHE for small stakes (one time my kings held up vs. AJ and once they lost to 10-10). But I was finally up to about $30 (after starting with $10). I was dealt 6♠8♠ in the BB. It's unraised with two limpers (the SB folded). The flop came A♠4♠4♥. So I checked and it got checked around until the button, who bet the minimum. Everyone called. I thought about a check-raise, but chickened out because I don't like ALWAYS betting a draw and a check-raise there screams "flush draw."
The turn was the 5♠, which gave me the flush and a straight-flush draw. I bet pot, thinking if someone has an ace I'm going to either felt them or I need to protect my hand from someone having a higher spade. Both called. DOH! "Someone has a 4 and someone has the K♠," I thought. The river was a 3♥. I considered checking, but I thought, "I better put out a defensive bet in case someone has a higher flush." So I bet like a third of the pot. The cutoff min-raised and the button shoved. Well, it was a nominal re-raise and didn't open the betting again so I called, as did the min-raiser. THEY BOTH FLOPPED A FULL HOUSE!!! They both had A4!
Now, how unlucky is that? I saw the flop for free, made my hand on 4th street (practically drawing dead, ultimately drawing to one out after the turn). I can't fold after that flop, right? For a min bet? The odds of someone holding A4 and flopping a boat is 1,088-to-1 or .9% (according to SuperSystem's tables). I can't imagine what the odds are of two people having A4 and both flopping a full house. So I have to think a flush might be good on the turn. On the river I thought I might've lost to someone who limped with J♠10♠ or some spade-spade variation, or A♣5♣. But I had to pay it off regardless. Should I have I checked the river and called anything reasonable?
I lost about half my stack on the hand, and I understand with the paired board I shouldn't have gotten too committed to this hand, and it's really not a bad-beat story. I got away for the minumum, I think. Plus you really shouldn't go broke in an unraised pot (another SuperSystem gem). I just think I got unlucky again. I mean, 8♠6♠ is the type of hand you want to bust people with, and I see it all of the time. But when I make my hand TWO people have monsters? I used to say that I can't be afraid of the monsters under the bed all of the time, but I've been getting so unlucky lately that I am gun shy. Not live, but online.
And can I play this hand any differently? Obviously I'm not raising out of position with 8♠6♠. So I can't be faulted for letting the A4 hands see a flop, right? And shouldn't I protect my hand when the turn completed my flush? How much do you bet there on the turn? Do you check-call? Do you shove? Do you bet half the pot and let someone with a lone 4 call to hit his 10 outs? As it turned out they both had boats (flopped no less). I actually had one out on the river, but that isn't happening unless there's $420 in the pot. LOL!
And if I say my losses are from bad luck, am I now a hypocrite? Did I just play it wrong? Do I not understand NLHE anymore? Even if I did play this hand wrong (which I'm definitely open to suggestions on how I should've played it), it still doesn't account for the other beats I've been taking, such as set over set, etc. I won't list the bad beats AGAIN!
I think I'm destined to be a "live" player only. The bad beats and unlucky hands may still come, but as you all have pointed out to me, we don't see as many hands live so it doesn't hurt as much and as often. I'm WAY more successful live than online these days, and that hurts. I used to win so much online.
Those days are gone, I'm afraid. I used to think if I played higher limits the luck wouldn't be so much of a factor, but that clearly isn't the case. And if you play low limits people play anything. Poker is a tough beast to tame for me lately, and the frustration continues to mount.
-- Chris
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