One Minute Mystery: The Case of the Funhouse Mirror

A little twist this week: Columbo is the opponent, and we have to ponder what he's doing.

It's Level II of the AIPS Main Event no-limit hold'em tournament.

Columbo min raises, and we look down at JJ on the button and reraise.

The flop: 8d-Jd-Ad.

Columbo checks, and we put out a pot-sized bet, which Columbo calls.

The turn: Kh.

Columbo pushes all-in.

What does he have? And what do we do?

Times file photo

Comments

[Erik H]

He may have A,K with the K of diamonds, but does it really matter? You're not folding a set of Jacks there. If he had A,A K,K or even if he flopped a flush, good luck to him. Maybe I'm not good enough to fold it here, but oh well. I think it also depends on how he had been playing at the table.

[Chad 'ornycjv']

That's my hand from AIPS ME. I won't ruin for everyone and say what happened. Very exciting though!!!!!

[JLBSox]

I put him on a flush draw. I make the call. If he already got there, I have outs.

[MacDaddyo]

Since he didn't reraise your reraise before the flop, I don't think he has A-A here. Being out of position and heads up, another raise would have made sense with that hand. After the flop contains an Ace, he checks, but calls us when we make a pot sized bet. Being out of position, a call here is a likely sign that he thinks he is ahead and doesn't want to push us off the hand yet. What hands would he do that with? A made flush? It's possible he raised with suited connectors from under the gun, and given the situation, it would almost have to be K-Q of diamonds so a flat call of our raise after the flop would make sense. A set of his own? Which would have to be eights by our own deduction? I think he raises or folds with that hand, but not call. It's also possible that he has A-K, with the King being the King of diamonds. He could also be holding K-K with one of them a diamond.

From his perspective, we reraised him before the flop which makes it highly unlikely that we have two diamonds here. He is probably putting us on a high pocket pair or A-K. If he has the made flush, he's not worried at all and the flat call makes sense. If he has A-K with the king being a diamond, and he puts us on A-K, he's on a freeroll with 9 outs. So the only hand he would be behind to if holding A-K or K-K (in both cases with the king of diamonds in hand) would be a set. Unless we have pocket aces, he has 11 outs, which is about a 45% probable winner, which gives him the right odds to flat call.

When the King of hearts falls on the turn and he pushes, what does that tell us? He probably doesn't have A-K. Top two, even with the nut flush draw, is behind a set going to the river. With the way we have been aggressively betting our hand, it seems unlikely that he can push us off the hand, even by going all in. If he's holding K-K, he just made a set and again would probably check raise that hand, not lead out. If we checked behind him, he's still a big favorite on the river. The hand that makes the most sense to me is the K-Q of diamonds. An ace hit the board on the flop and we still bet, which probably makes him think we have A-K or a set of jacks, which he thinks we will have a very hard time laying down. So the all in bet at the turn makes the most sense with him holding the K-Q of diamonds.

I don't have that much in the pot so far and his min raise UTG ansd call of my re-raise before the flop as well as flat call after the flop are all very fishy. I think I would begrudgingly lay this one down and hope my flush read was right. If he's bluffing, I tip my cap and tell him nice hand and file it away for future use.

[MacDaddyo]

Since he didn't reraise your reraise before the flop, I don't think he has A-A here. Being out of position and heads up, another raise would have made sense with that hand. After the flop contains an Ace, he checks, but calls us when we make a pot sized bet. Being out of position, a call here is a likely sign that he thinks he is ahead and doesn't want to push us off the hand yet. What hands would he do that with? A made flush? It's possible he raised with suited connectors from under the gun, and given the situation, it would almost have to be K-Q of diamonds so a flat call of our raise after the flop would make sense. A set of his own? Which would have to be eights by our own deduction? I think he raises or folds with that hand, but not call. It's also possible that he has A-K, with the King being the King of diamonds. He could also be holding K-K with one of them a diamond.

From his perspective, we reraised him before the flop which makes it highly unlikely that we have two diamonds here. He is probably putting us on a high pocket pair or A-K. If he has the made flush, he's not worried at all and the flat call makes sense. If he has A-K with the king being a diamond, and he puts us on A-K, he's on a freeroll with 9 outs. So the only hand he would be behind to if holding A-K or K-K (in both cases with the king of diamonds in hand) would be a set. Unless we have pocket aces, he has 11 outs, which is about a 45% probable winner, which gives him the right odds to flat call.

When the King of hearts falls on the turn and he pushes, what does that tell us? He probably doesn't have A-K. Top two, even with the nut flush draw, is behind a set going to the river. With the way we have been aggressively betting our hand, it seems unlikely that he can push us off the hand, even by going all in. If he's holding K-K, he just made a set and again would probably check raise that hand, not lead out. If we checked behind him, he's still a big favorite on the river. The hand that makes the most sense to me is the K-Q of diamonds. An ace hit the board on the flop and we still bet, which probably makes him think we have A-K or a set of jacks, which he thinks we will have a very hard time laying down. So the all in bet at the turn makes the most sense with him holding the K-Q of diamonds.

I don't have that much in the pot so far and his min raise UTG ansd call of my re-raise before the flop as well as flat call after the flop are all very fishy. I think I would begrudgingly lay this one down and hope my flush read was right. If he's bluffing, I tip my cap and tell him nice hand and file it away for future use.

[Godard]

AK with king of diamonds is the only thing that makes sense. Columbo didn't have odds on the flop to call with KK. And according to his blog, Columbo has been playing well lately.

[Erik]

Did anyone read MacDaddyo's post? Ye Gads man.

[Erik]

There's no way I fold here. If he has a flush...oh well, it's a 90 man tournament, the blinds get high at the end, and I'm trying to grab all the chips I can. I either want a huge stack or I want to turn the monitor off and go to sleep.

[Chi-Guy]

Yes.

I immediately thought A-K with the king of Diamonds. There was plenty of money in to push with top two and the nut flush draw. Tough loss for whoever ends up losing the pot but I'd call with the set of jacks and I'd push with top 2 and the nut flush draw. If he already had the flush, we would't be reading about it.

Brian

[ungarop]

I agree with some others that AxKd is likely here. A min-raise with this hand is common. Also explains the check-call on the flop to see what we will do on the turn.

Another possibility is QdTd, with Columbo making the straight on the turn. All he's worried about then is the Kd flush redraw (if we have KxKd), but he is ahead of a set and only behind a flopped flush which we are unlikely to have given the reraise preflop.

I call. I think I am ahead more than behind and if he has the flush or the straight, I still have 10 outs on the river. Without stack sizes being stated, there is a chance I fold here if I have an average chip stack.