How much would you raise?

Here's a 10-second mystery of the day:

In a $1/$2 no-limit hold'em game at Derby Lane ($100 min/max buy-in). I have $98 after folding my big blind on my first hand. (In that hand, five people called an $11 early position raise).

No other read on the table, other than lots of above-buy-in stacks, and some stereotyping that leads me to believe the table is heavy on solid, laggy players.

On second hand, I'm dealt two black Aces in the small blind. Five callers to me. How much do you raise?

- SCOTT

Comments

[Chi-Guy]

$100 min/max is horrible. This is exactly why that format doesn't make sense. Two ways to play it.

First, shove. Maybe someone will put you on pockets 9's and they'll call with AK or pocket jacks. Nothing wrong with that play. If everyone folds, take your $10.

Second, raise to $30 and then shove regardless of the flop. If you get a caller, the pot will be $70 with $70 behind and you aren't folding anyhow. Maybe they'll hit top pair or a draw and call you. The money is going in. Don't think it isn't. Don't get cute.

Brian

[aces88ss]

Brian, I love your second option. IMO (for what it;s worth), you don;t want to shove and scare everyone off. BUT, you do want to thin the field. AA against 5 callers is actually below the "I will win %50 of he time" line. You want 1 caller, 2 at the most. Then you are mathematically in good shape. Also, the $30 raise will limit th type of hands that will call you, high PP, AK, AQ, AJ. It will (hopefully) knock out the lower percentage hands that are more likely to bust your aces (suited connectors being the most dangerous to Aces, yet not profitable to make this call).

BTW, I LOVE the shove on the flop no matter what (unless a third ace hits and then $20 per round of betting)...Be willing to see it to the end, but try to take your $40 profit with no risk.

[Berliner77]

I agree with Chi-Guy about how horrible $100 min/max is. I don't know how you play it. I used to go to a casino in Windsor, Canada when I was under 21 and they had $100 min/max tables, it was awful.

Anyway, I'd make it 30 here.

Do you think there's any way to convince everyone at a new 100 min/max table to keep going all in and rebuying, and then raising and folding so everyone gets the amount of money they want to start with on the table before you start "actually" playing? (You would all talk before the action takes place as to how much each person wants in front of them) Would a casino have the right to stop this? And also, there's nothing stopping one person from leaving the table before the pre-determined amounts have been reached. I always think about this. There has to be a way to get around 100 min/max hell.

[Rob from NJ]

Yeah my 1st thought was shove to make it look like AK but 30 (35? 40?) would give the proper impression that you are semi-strong.

[Turley11]

Just being down there and the way people were playing, I think I would just shove here... I bet I would have got 3 to 4 people to call last week.

[bitguru]

What did the $11 raiser have in the first hand? If you could be sure that someone behind you would raise it, I'd be tempted to call the big blind and plan a large reraise (probably all-in) preflop.

The idea is that you shouldn't get more than one or two callers, and even if everybody folds you still pick up some chips. If nobody raises behind you then you're in a bad spot unless you flop the set.

If the table really is heavy on solid, laggy players then Chi-Guy's $30 raise might make more sense.

[NickG]

Judging by the stories I've heard from this place $30 isn't enough. You're giving the first person to act behind 2-1 on their call and anyone who's already limped 4-1 and it will only increase more after the first call. I think 30 will leave you with maybe 3 or 4 callers. I don't like that small of a re-raise.

I would probably stop-n-go here by committing yourself before seeing the flop by betting closer to $40-50. If you get even one call a shove on the flop is good.

If you raise $30 and get say 4 callers, there is roughly $120 in the pot. Shoving on the flop no matter what will be $65 into a $120 pot. Say the board comes 3-flush or gives someone an up-and-down draw. There is no way anyone at DL throws those monsters away. And again, once someone calls everyone is getting the right price to play.

[NickG]

(4+1) x 30 is not $120. Let's change that to a modest 3 callers

[viii_ball]

How do you all have enough information to make any statement? We know nothing other than Scott is in the SB. How many are in the pot already? Raised or just limped in front? What's the current pot size? There is a huge difference in the way you play this hand if you have 8 limpers for $2 vs one raiser for $16. 8 limpers I may want to raise more to thin the field. One $16 raiser I want to string him along to get his whole stack.

[viii_ball]

Oops..somehow I missed the 5 callers line.

Having just played in the $100 min/max at the Daytona Kennel Club when I was down visiting I would raise to $18. This should thin the field down to one or two callers and then your aces look pretty good. $30 is too much and you won't be getting value from the aces. With 2 other callers there will be $100 in the pot and with a non-scary board you can push for your remaining $80, which will not give any draws the pot odds to call. If you get unlucky and someone flops 2 pair well, thats poker. You will get beat sometimes.

[Loren Finkelstein]

Limp, and then check-fold the flop unless you flop a set. :-)

[G.C.O 1313]

Personally, I like to raise the standard raise + 1 BB per limper. Assuming the standard raise is to 5X BB ($10) then I would raise to $20.

That should thin the field and give you a caller or two.

[guikalil]

I'd raise between 15 and 20 bucks.

[Berliner77]

Most of you must not have ever played in a live 1/2 game if you think a raise of anything less than 25 is going to knock out the majority of 5 limpers.

If there is a raise to 15 in a 1/2 game, it's the same thing as a limp.

I hate 1/2.

Play 2/5.

[Michael Paul]

Berliner, it's all relative.

the 1/2 games here in San Diego are even worse in that you can only buy in for a max of $60.

but, the games aren't all-in fests like you seem to be describing. a raise will still do just what you want it to do.

It just depends on the table dynamics. sometimes the games play bigger than they are and sometimes they play even tighter.

although Scott has no knowledge of the table, i'd still throw out a normal 20-ish raise with the intention of shoving on the flop. I think that at most places the 20-ish raise will still thin the field to one or two callers and not create a family pot.

why stop at 2-5? why not play 5-10 or 10-20? Oh yeah, because the BR dictates what limits you can play whether you like them or not sometimes.............

Michael

[Berliner77]

I can only go from my experience playing live. I live on Long Island and play in the rooms around here. You get no respect for any open raise less than 20 bucks, really. Maybe things are different elsewhere, but a 100 min/max game isn't real poker.

A 60 max buy in? That horrible. You are pot committed if you see any flop in a raised pot.

And in reference to it all being "relative" in terms of bet sizes and what not . . . sure, that sounds great in a perfect world, but you know as well as I do thats not the case. A standard raise in 1/2 gets no respect when a standard raise in 2/5 gets respect. It's just the mentality of seeing a stack of red chips as a bet instead of 2 red chips and a couple of white. It's for reasons like that why I never bet where I only throw one chip in. If people see one chip or small denomination chips, it weakens the power of the bet in my opinion.

But now I need to stop revealing my secrets.

[joe]

All in.

[Zerb]

What image do you want to have at this table for the foreseeable future?

Shove if you want to get more action for the rest of the session. (Assumes you will re-buy if they get cracked by the JTo guy who calls.)

Play it straight (which is probably $25 raise and shove any uncoordinated flop) if you want more of a "savvy player" image.

Limp along and call down to the River if you want to be accepted as "one of the guys." :)

[NickG]

A min-raise from the SB with 5 already in the hand??? How often does that thin 3-4 limpers? Unless the original bettor re-raises, I don't think you will thin the field with a min-re-raise to $20.

And yes it is all relative to the place you're playing. Unless memory proves me wrong, Derby Lane is not riddled with TAGs.

I played 1/2 NL with a $200-max and got 4 callers to the flop with a $15 UTG+1 raise holding AhKh. Led out with a $40 cbet on a flop of 10c8hQh and got 2 callers. Turned the 6h, checked and got a bet and a call behind. I pushed the rest of my stack and both called. One player had Q6 with one heart and the other had A8 offsuit.

This play with bigger stacks isn't any better than what you expect from a $100max table.

[Mike F.]

Different room, different players, similar situation. Mostly young players with ball caps screwed on sideways. Loose aggressive. The type of players who faint when shown the nuts because they were sure their second pair, top kicker was good. "I put him on X," "I put him on Y." When a person says he is putting people on certain hands, it is my experience that that person is a donkey.

I am UTG+1 and have AA. UTG raises to $8. I make it $25 and everyone folds. I didn't get the one caller I wanted, but I'm happy to win the pot. You must commit when you reraise in these games. Yes, you want to get called by a worse hand. No, you don't want to get called by four worse hands.

[chad]

pot is already $55. just shove. no one will expect you to do this with AA and at least one will probably come along. You don't want to play a multi-way pot here and if you only raise to 30-40, everyone is going to call. Just shove!!!!!

[JLBSox]

Chad, There's only $13 in the pot by my count. I think shoving is too much. I raise to at least $30, no more than $40. Based on my experience at similar games at Foxwoods, this is the right amount to get you 1-2 callers you want. On the flop, regardless of what comes, I check raise all in as I am first to actand want to get a little more $ in the pot.

[Michael]

All I have to say is I need to play in the games you all play in where a $30 raise in a $1/$2 game gets you 3 or more callers.

Michael

[Matt]

My initial thought was $18-20, but $30 isn't a bad idea either.

[Godard]

I also like raising to $30 and then auto-shoving. It's the best way to get all your money into the pot as quickly as possible.

[aces88ss]

""I put him on X," "I put him on Y." When a person says he is putting people on certain hands, it is my experience that that person is a donkey." - Mike F.

Mike, this is dead on true. Putting people on a range of hands is possible, but not as exact as people like to think. Mostly these folks like to "put you on" hands that they hope you have and discount completely hands that are consistent with their bets (or calls/checks).

Mostly I hear the "I had him on" people talking from the rail after they've been felted.

[pokerknight]

I like the responses, but I'd really like to know how the hand played out Scott. Tell us you didn't get the 'rockets' cracked.

[Marcus]

I, too, like the $30 raise followed by the auto-shove... You might loose 2 or 3 limpers and have a good chance that your aces hold up....

Cheers,

Marcus aka msc1204

[Dane]

I raise it to 15 to go... and prob shove any flop unless it comes a red suited board or all paint board. But even then I am not good enough to lay it down here if i get called PF.

Dane from Milwaukee

[Dane]

I raise it to 15 to go... and prob shove any flop unless it comes a red suited board or all paint board. But even then I am not good enough to lay it down here if i get called PF.

Dane from Milwaukee

[Schmiggs]

at derby, i drop 25 on it. any action afterwards is a push. mainly because you're more than likely at a table with stacks that have built up with similar hyper aggressive pushing and they're not going to be scared to lose a bill...

[Joe24Pa]

Your best bet is to fold NOW! It saves you the heartache of watching Donkey #2 river a set of fives for what was up until then YOUR $300 pot...

[Scott Long]

Poker Knight et. al, I'll reveal on this week's show, and my thought process involved. Good discussion here so far.

[MAB]

Since I play at Derby Lane and in this $100 min/max format quite often, seeing that an $11 raise got 5 callers, and we have 5 limpers coming to us, I would:

* Raise to $22. You want it to be $20 for each player to call. There is $13 in the pot before we raise, and raising to $22, makes it $20 more to call into a $33 pot. The Big Blind will probably fold and your should get 1-2 callers of the 5.

Raising to $25 would be bad (and maybe slightly better, but we are looking for 1-2 callers).

Raising to $30 will be lucky to get 1 caller. I think that is too much. If you want to just take it down here, then raise to $30.

MAB

[MAB]

Edit to above: "Raising to $25 *WOULDN'T* be bad...."

[Chi-Guy]

One other thing that seemed to have come up that seems to be missing a clear math problem.

Say you take you $100 and shove with it with 5 people to act. What is the ideal number of people you want to call to make the most profit?

5. Not 4, not 3, not 2 Not 1. Anyone who thinks otherwise is ignoring simple risk reward analysis. Against 4 random hands, you average take from that will be well over $200.

If you want your aces to hold up, the best way for that to happen is for the board to pair without hitting anyone. Then you have the nut two pair and the others only have 4 cards to help them make their straights and flushes. Hitting top set works nicely too.

Brian

[mn156]

Make it $25 to go. Hopefully an idiot or two will think you are stealing or that their 77 is good on a 842r flop. Shove all flops as no one individually is getting odds to outdraw you.

With only 48 BBs you should never think of folding AA, just make sure you don't give proper odds pre-flop and rest assured in your knowledge that over the long run this play will makes you lots of $$$$$$.

[guikalil]

with 15 bucks you´re already overbetting the pot. What kind of game is that? A pot size bet wold keep the 5 limpers??? This is gotta be a very lucrative game!!!

After playing these games for some time now, it does depend on the table. I was recently in Daytona, sat at a table where $25 raise would bring along 3-4 callers. Pots were $100-150 each hand. After 2 hours the table broke, I was moved, and a $5 raise would make everyone fold (I actaully got boo'ed !) I make it $25 to go.

mcomikey

[The Nit]

Considering that you are new to the table, I'd seriously consider shoving. You have no image, you would look like a loose cannon and I'd say there is a 50/50 chance someone looks you up.

If you don't shove, I'd raise to at least 25, probably 30 - enough to where if you get one or two callers, the current pot is an amount which is about the size of your remaining stack (because you are going to shove the flop regardless of texture).

[SamRiver]

Pop in fifty hope to loose a few, have someone re-raises all-in then call.

[Chicago Jason]

Reading is FUNdamental!

Raise to a quarter - one caller - pot is $59. Stick your last $74 in there on the flop.

Next time, get aces in late position.

[Justin]

I may not be the best expert in this. From my experience, people try to play well in the casino over here. Raises of 3x will get called by 4 or more, but the one time I got dealt AA there, I raised to $11 after 4 limpers and *gasp* EVERYONE folded. But in a no fold 'em game like I hear Derby is, I'd say $20-$30 should eliminate enough opponents to make the play profitable. I like the auto-shove on a decent flop, too. If they're gonna call too much, I want them to pay.

Irish_Fan_34

[Rant2112]

I raise as big as I think people will call. From what everyone here has been saying it sounds like that is something like 20-25. I'm going to do my best to get all the $ in on almost any flop.

Having more people come along does make the hand somewhat harder to play and it increases your variance but it is +EV for you.

Not until the 4th or 5th caller do I start to lose equity, no matter how good their hands are.

If you raise to $20 and get more than a caller or two I don't see how you are going to fold post-flop.