One Minute Mystery: The Case of the Fast Moving Truck

It's early in a no-limit Texas hold'em tournament.

It folds around to us in the cutoff, and we raise 3x with Ks-Qs.

It's folded around to the small blind, who reraises 3x. We call.

The flop: Js-8d-As.

Small blind bets 875 into the pot of 1575 - about 20 percent of our stack.

What's our play?

Comments

[Matt]

All-in!

[aces88ss]

Why not be first...gives everyone a target.

We have a royal draw, a gutshot broadway draw, and a nut flush draw. Even I (the leader of the "don't take major risks early in the tournament" parade) can not possibly lay this down.

So, the question is raise or just call.

OK, what does his betting pattern tell me. Either quality AK, AQ hands or quality PP's (AA, KK, QQ, JJ) would fit the initial reraise. So, we may be behind, but with those great draws, we are probably mathematically ahead even if he does have his AK. However, his 1/2 pot bet after the flop makes me lean towards the quality PP. I am even going to say that I hope he has QQ, giving us a K top pair draw.

SO, I think this would be a perfect chance to buy that free card on 4th street. I would make that min- re-raise to pot size. It establishes us as representing an ace (should he have those QQ), and could take the pot down right now. It takes back control of the betting, as should he have that AQ, he would be reluctant to make a 4th street bet (thus buying that free card).

I am willing to spend 1/2 my stack on this hand as it is (would still fold if he shoves). As Doyle says, if you are willing to call a bet, better to be the one making the bet.

So, raise, don;t just call. Try to buy a free card, and hope he doesn;t shove (if he does...get ready MAB...I would then fold...too early to get busted out on a draw)

[Godard]

I've been in this situation several times, and I usually just go all-in, and usually get a fold. I only get called by trips, which sucks, but then I tend to hit the draw anyway.

I have a feeling my strategy is wrong though.

[Jon Shadow]

Ship it!

You need to build a stack early on and these are the types of situations where you have a positive EV if you get all the money into the middle on the flop.

[Chris Cosenza]

No reason not to shove here, and I think it's a continuation bet that will wilt to your power. OK, need more meds.

[Snuffy]

12 outs 2x. Coin flip and the pot odds are giving you better than that. Send it in big fella.

[MAB]

If we just call, and the third spade comes, we are unlikely to get much more money from the SB anyway.

So....best to re-raise All-In. Mostly likely will take down the pot, but hopefully get called by AK. Might get called by AAA or JJJ, but we have a massive draw, so best to push here.

Aces888ss....please tell us how you will fold this hand to the SB's 875 bet....

[Veener]

The fold equity in this situation is too great to just call. There's no guarantee you're going to get a free river card with a min raise either. If you min raise and he comes over the top, you're pot committed anyways and must call.

You have two ways to win a healthy amount of chips here. You push and he folds, you win a big pot with no risk of getting knocked out. You push and he calls, you have a 50/50 chance of winning a monster pot, but also getting knocked out of the tournament.

I only see him calling your all-in on this scary flop with trips or two pair, which might cancel a few of your outs, but I think the benefits outweigh the risk. Perfect spot to semi-bluff.

Veener

[aces88ss]

How will I fold it...easy, you just click fold...

But seriously...I said i would make a bet in order to represent the ace, and hopefully capitalize on the fold equity should he not have an ace.

However, I did say I would fold if he went over the top and all in'ed behind my reraise (I had said I would not call, I would min- re-raise), . We (mostly you and I) have had this discussion before. Early in the tournament, I would fold top pair, top kicker to an all in bet (last week's discussion), and I would certainly fold a nut flush draw to an all in bet. A draw is a draw is a draw, no matter if it is the nut draw or not. If the villain is ready to all in this hand, I am not willing to be the guy on the rail telling another bad beat story. Your goal is to win the tournament, and as the old saying goes,

"you can't win a tournament in the early rounds, you can only lose it".

My answer and strategy changes in later rounds. But for early in the tournament strategy, play for the nuts, but don;t take major risks.

Same as last week, i can certainly make a case for a type of player making an all in bet. I am not that type of player.

[guikalil]

Shove it!

You have 12 outs ((12x4)-(12-8))wich gives you 44% to win the hand in case he calls, plus you have a huge fold equity! Its a shove and pray situation!

[aces88ss]

OK, 2 mysteries in a row, with similar situation. Primarily, a good hand, early in the tournament. Same as last week, I am cautious, and many of you want to shove. Let me ignore the specifics of this hand or a moment, and tell you a story...

I was lucky enough to attend a seminar hosted by Mike Sexton. he spent a great deal of time differentiating between pro players (long term attitude) and recreational players(short term goals). He was very clear that there was nothing wrong with a recreational player taking risks. They were there to have fun, and there is nothing funner than shoving all in. Even if the cards don't fall your way, you have a story to tell, and you got your recreation.

BUT...He was also clear that a player with long term goals plays slow, steady, poker in the early rounds. Take a look at PAD. The pros rarely shove the first night.

Mike gave us a homework assignment that was very enlightening... Play 100 single table sit N gos. At the end of the second level blinds, make a list of the chip leader and any player who was able to accumulate 20% more than their starting chips. Then compare that list with the eventual winning positions at the end of the game. He predicted 85% of the time, the chip leader at the end of the second level does not win and 75% of the time, he does not even place in the money. he also predicted that 75% of the time, one of the players who had only accumulated a little over 20% additional chips would be the eventual winner. (I did make that list, tracked my 100 sit n gos, and I came up with 83% did not win and 65% did not even place in the money). Now, those figures are interesting, as the math is 1 in 10 (90%) should have a chance of winning (all things being equal), yet the chip leader at the end of round two does not have a huge statistical advantage to coming out on top.

He asked us why the chip leader has such a hard time of turning that advantage into a winning session.

We all shouted out our answers, ranging from leader loosening up to variance to phases of the moon. But Mike gave this answer...

The type of play that makes someone the chip leader early is the type of play that will get you knocked out easily. Big chances, big rewards puts you in the mindset of being invincible. You start talking yourself into making big pot plays based on fold equity, number of outs, etc. Watch the pros early in a tournament, and they run from big pots.

So, still not talking specifically about this hand yet, but last weeks Columbo was big risk with top pair, top kicker, and many advocated all in. Now, comes this weeks, with nut draws and fold equity being bandied about. Many of the same people who advocated all in last week are screaming all in again. My point (stolen from Mike) in combining these hands is that...Yes, a certain percentage of time the hand will go your way. A certain percentage of time, the hand will not go your way. The time to make those close decisions is at the end of a tournament, NOT at the beginning. Careful, small pot, low risk poker in the early rounds (and speeding up later) is the key to WINNING long term. Chances of you being right in the all in move one of those two hands is excellent. Chances of you not being right is also excellent (like last week). the reward to being right is early chip leader. If you analyze those 100 sit and gos, come to the same conclusion as Mike, that does not mean much (only a 5% advantage over a blind left handed monkey). The risk is obvious...you are on the rail, sharing that bad beat story with everyone that is interested.

Someone is going to be wrong when All ins are made in early rounds. It rarely is me. My goal is to be that player that makes 20% each level, not put my life at risk.

[Matt]

aces88ss,

I understand your caution here, but this hand is different than last week's hand. We are in a much better spot to get our opponent to fold and if he does call, we can still win the hand by catching one of our outs.

Also, please stop using the badbeat/rail story reference because neither hand(this or last week's) can be classified as that. A cooler-yes, but not a badbeat.

[aces88ss]

Matt, I am sorry about the rail/bad beat references. It was meant as a joke. O course, losing with top pair top kicker, as well as losing shoving all in on a royal draw are not bad beats at all. The rest of the joke was finding someone who wants to hear about it.

And for the record, I am advocating a reraise to represent an ace. Since the small blind will have to act before us, it puts us in a great position to buy that free card. It is only in the case that he reraises all in that I would fold my draw. Then, should we be lucky enough to hit our card, we are in a better position to get more money out of the villain as we have represented an ace more than a draw. If it doesn't hit, we are wounded, but certainly not crippled.

In different situations, the answers would be different.

Cash game, I am raising to beat the band.

Tournament, late levels when it counts, I am on it like ugly on an ape.

Early in a tournament...well... I've had my say, and wish all luck

[Matt]

aces88ss,

I see your point of view because of the hand we might be up against(AA's). Are you suggesting a PSRR or a MR of his bet? The only hand I see us buying a free card with a re-raise is AK. KK's are likely folding, and AA's are definitely shoving(IMO).

Also, I meant no offense to the BB/Rail comment. It was just that anyone who would complain about a badbeat after losing either of these hands with our holdings, I would consider a moron.

I enjoy your analysis, keep it coming.

[aces88ss]

Matt, in my youth, I spent more time on the rail over betting top pair than anyone in the nation. I first started playing hold em at a bar that would have a little tourney starting at 7 PM and another starting at 10 P. It was called the "hamburger of shame" (They even started calling it that on the menu). I had to order it around 8 PM cause I was always getting knocked out early with my AK, AQ, etc that always won on TV. It was very hard to make that hamburger last til 10 so you could play some more poker.

To me, our villain's initial reraise preflop certainly could say aces, but also KK, QQ, JJ...maybe even TT, as well as AK or AQ. I can see him calling a min reraise (post flop) with the pairs, and certainly with AK or AQ, but unless he has AA, it would be bold for him to raise us on 4th street. And yes, he would shove if he had AA, in which case, I (not everyone) would fold. I think he has a premium hand, at it is probable that he caught some of this flop. But he also has to worry about what we had when we raised and called a reraise, and then min reraised his post flop raise.

I just think that this matches every book scenario I have ever read about buying a free card

[Rant2112]

aces88ss - There is an interesting shift underway in the most successful strategy for winning online tournaments. More and more of the 'tournament leader board' players are playing loose and aggressive early to build a big stack. They have much higher variance but they finish in the top spots more often. They cash less often but more of their cashes are for big $. Basically, they are intentionally widening their variance because the top spots pay so much more.

I think your style needs to fit your personality and there is merit to a style that plays tight early in a tournament. But, there is also an argument for a looser and riskier style.

[aces88ss]

Rant, absolutely agree. If you or me or anyone finds a strategy that they are happy with the outcome...

Play hardy...

BTW, Chimps is playing RAZZ tonight...the dead money has already signed up

[ClarkKent813]

aces88ss, I wholeheartedly agree with your early tournament stratgy. I never like to get involved in a big pot early on unless I know I have the nuts. The pots aren't meaningful enough here to risk all my chips.

I usually try to avoid playing many hands until the blinds reach the fourth or fifth level, usually 200/400. If I've been able to avoid any large scale confrontations, I usually have a nice tight image and now, when the blinds have some meaning to my stack, I start to play a bit more aggressive.

When I play single table tourneys, this strategy works very well. By the time I start to play, the table is usually down a few players and makes it easier to win or at least make the money.