One Minute Mystery: The Case of the All Too Common Scenario

We're deep into a three-table no-limit tournament. Blinds are 200/400 with a 25 ante. We have about 9,800 in chips, with an M of 15.

The table is slowing down when it's folded to us in the cutoff with Ad-7c. We raise 3x, and the big blind calls.

The flop: 10c-Jc-8d. Big blind checks, and our bet of 1,400 is called.

The turn: 10-h.

Big blind checks. What do we do?

Times file photo

Comments

[Godard]

Did your opponent really call with a better non-pair ace than you? Probably not. So, you're either:

Still way behind and should take a free card
or
Still ahead with your naked ace against a draw.

Either way, I like checking and seeing if you can call a river bet or not. A bet is only going to increase the pot, and you still won't know what kind of hand you're against.

[stripedcomic]

How many chips does the Big Blind have? (I haven't listened to the episode yet, so it probably says in the show...)

I would probably check here. At least, when I think about it, I would probably check. If I was playing, I'd fire the second barrel. If the second barrel is just called, I would expect to be checked to on the river given an off card. Which would allow me to retain control of the hand, and the pot size on the river.

I feel that if we check, we're checking with the intent to fold if the BB bets into us on the river with a decent sized bet. Otherwise, we're checking here and hoping the ace high is good.

Deric

[MAB]

That card probably didn't help him, so I would keep him on a Club-flush draw.

Bet again. This time 2500. The Fold Equity is good here. Feels like the BB is looking for another free card.

If the BB calls this bet, beware. Hope no club comes, and hopefully check it down.

[Mitchell Cogert]

This is an easy one....push all-in.

Even if he has top pair, you have outs.

A check on the turn loses the hand for you. He may be on a draw or 2nd pair or who cares...Push all-in.

[Marcus]

So lets analyse all the information we have:

- The table is slowing down since we are getting close to the bubble
- the blinds are quite high
- Columbo raised 3xBB before the flop which makes around 2000 in the pot (SB + BB + 3xBB + some antes)
- the BB called the 1200 raise getting 1.7:1 on his money

So here are the questions to answer:
- What could the BB have calling the raise without reraising? I would give him any Ace up to A10, any face card from KQ - J10. I would not put him on a pocketpair higher than 99
- Why does the BB call the 1400 bet into the 3200 pot getting 2,3 on his money? I would put him either on a open ended Straight / Flush draw
- We "only" have Ace high with an inside straight draw (where I think the 9c would not give us the winning hand).

In my opinion there are only two options: check or push.

So we may be ahead right now but I would guess that our opponent is either drawing or trapping. He could check knowing that we did all the betting for him...

I would try to check the hand down. If there is a small bet I would call the river. If there is a large bet I would fold still giving me the chance to win the tournament leaving me with an X of 10.5

msc1204

[AngelEyesGBU]

I put him on suited JT, spades or diamonds. Check the turn, expect to fold the river.

[Chi-Guy]

I give up on the hand. That is why many consider many of the moves I make, "weak".

My c-bet didn't work. Good night all!

Brian

[pokerpeaker]

My guess is he's on a draw of some kind, and it's possible now that when the board paired, he may not believe it's worth it to chase it.

This is why I would bet here again. It really makes him think about calling with any kind of a draw because of the paired board. And it's much more likely that he's on a draw here than a monster.

The problem is a bet might commit you here, but I'd bet enough to save you an M of 7 or less and see if he'll fold. If he does call, he's probably got something and you can give up on the river.

[MacDaddyo]

I think Columbo has to realize he's up against some kind of made hand just because of his own description of how the table is slowing down and a 3x raise should keep most people out of the pot unless they've got something of value in the pocket. His worry when he makes his pre-flop raise is about the big stack on the button. The button folds and he thinks he's all set. When the big blind calls the raise, alarm bells should go off here! When he makes a C-bet and that gets called, he should know that he's likely beat and should check it down if possible. Putting any further money in this pot is only asking for trouble. Of course the way I have been running lately, this guy is going to push me out of this hand and show me 2-7o as he rakes in the chips, LOL!