One Minute Mystery: The Case of the Magician's Mirror

It's early in a 6-handed no-limit hold'em tournament, and a middle position player raises to 200.

We look down at Q-Q and raise to 480.

It's folded around to the original raiser, who reraises to 1,200. We call.

The flop: 6s-9c-Ks. Neither of our Queens is a spade.

Do you check ... or push? And if you check, do you call if your opponent bets?

Comments

[MAB]

If I am the villian, I am only re-raising with AA or KK. But...someone might re-raise with AK as well.

If you push, you are guaranteed to only be called by hands that beat you. If you check, you can hardly call any bet but a very small one.

Tough situation, terrible flop.

Check and let the hand go....

[NickG]

I know this is a tournament, but Colombo needs to start letting us know the entry cost to the tournament and whether it's a turbo or not. Especially in these 6-handed games. I haven't listened to the episode yet, but stack sizes are also important here. Anyway, if this is the 6-handed tourneys I play in, the villian isn't only 3-betting with KK, AA or AK. I've seen guys 3-bet with AQ suited to 99 (depending on their stacks and aggression level). So let's say this guy is a little tighter. Only 3betting in position with JJ+, AQs+, AK.

You're looking at a little more than 30% equity here. I guess I'll have to listen to the podcast to further analyze, but if I bet, I'm probably committed and if I check and he bets, I'm folding unless I'm getting priced to push.

I'll further comment after I listen to the entire OMM.

[aces88ss]

Wow...MAB, I am going to be the aggressive one this time...

I also have not been able to download from iTunes yet (it's not there yet, wanted to listen on the way to garage sales this morning), so there may be more details in the show...BUT

Early in the tournament means each person should have around the 1,500 starting chip stack. Unless our hero has doubled up early (something we should know), he has already committed a majority of his chips to this hand. So, if he has less than 1,000 chips, time to take advantage of the potential fold equity and shove; it's probably going to go in anyway. If he has more than 1,500 chips left, a check fold is possible. Play will depend on our chip stack.

[MAB]

Aces....

Weird how we are always on the opposite side....

Another way to play it, would be fire out a Blocking Bet...depending if we have enough chips....Fire 800 in to the pot (1/3 the pot), making it look like we WANT a call...if the villian Shoves, then we can still fold and save some chips.....if he just calls, then maybe we can put him on JJ, TT or 99 or AQ....

[jar_o_mayo]

Note to Columbo: stack sizes are super duper important here, and so are blinds - it looks like I'm in the blind too so it'd be good to know how much I've already got invested.

Our stack is almost certainly not starting this hand at 1500 - based on the initial raise of 200, blinds are probably 25/50, or level 3. So some time has gone by even though it's "early". And villian has reraised preflop to 1200 - if he had 1500 to start, he's already pretty much all in and woulda pushed.

As an aside, if blinds are 50/100, and he minraised preflop, and has a starting stack of something like 3000, then made the big reraise, that screams a big pocket pair, esp if we're playing a low buyin. which suggests the main decision on this hand was preflop.

Anyway, if I'm super super deep and villian started with a standard 3-4x raise, I'd consider doing a blocking bet to see what he does. I'd prob lean towards check / fold though. esp if any further betting by me would commit me to the pot / put me in short status.

The only hands you conceivably beat that might fall in a super loose villian's range is AT, AJ, AQ, JJ, TT. You're way behind all the others (AA, KK, AK, 99). If he's tight, you're in pretty bad shape against his range.

[Scott Long]

Hey folks, yeah, Columbo offers more details in the show, so don't blame him for my lacking post. I assume blog readers will eventually listen to the show, so I don't go into minute detail in the blog post.

[MAB]

Scott -

Don't assume. We don't all have time to listen to the show every week. But we do like the posts. We need more details to give proper analysis.

MAB

[aces88ss]

OK...Listened to the cast. Columbo had About 3600 in chips, which means he has 2400 left (also said the villain was @equal). Also, Columbo said he did not want to get pot committed.

So, rock and a hard place is where we are at. Let's look at basic poker. Our options are...
Shove
check/call
check/fold
check/re-raise
Bet.

Shove... Not me, I don't have the stomach for that move. If you have the heart, a shove preflop would have been fine, but not now.

Check/call... Not me. This is giving control of the hand away. You will be bleeding chips.

Check/re-raise... I like this better than check/call, but I still do not have the stomach for this move. In a cash game, I would occasionally try this move. In a tournament, a check/re-raise will commit you. May as well check/shove (which I like better than a check/re-raise). This would be the aggressive move, but not for me.

Check/fold... wimp move, prudent move.

Bet... This is my choice. The 1200 bet pre-flop tells me the villain wanted us to fold. With AA or KK, he wants us to stay. With AK, he would not have re-raised us. I think we are ahead, and a 1/2 pot size bet will put him to the test (committing us and him). I am ready to go broke with this hand.

I could easily be wrong with this hand, but I would rather make him call than be the one calling. I would check/old if an ace hit, but One over card (non-ace) is not enough to make me fold.

[aces88ss]

meant to add, I would also fold if the villain came over the top and all-ined behind me. We took a shot, but we are probably beat. This would leave us with 1200 chips. Not great, but not out of it.

[Chi-Guy]

NO idea what to do here, without more information on the table, or players styles, etc.

That is why I am not a no-limit tournament player. I would probably fold here, although I probably would have been more aggressive pre-flop and lost all of my chips.

[jeffbarnett78]

My choice is check fold. You didn't hit and he maide the third raise preflop (gotta put him on AA or KK). You can reasses if he totally drops the ball and checks but if he bets I'm through. I gotta believe I'm beat here. Sucks don't it!

[jeffbarnett78]

My choice is check fold. You didn't hit and he maide the third raise preflop (gotta put him on AA or KK). You can reasses if he totally drops the ball and checks but if he bets I'm through. I gotta believe I'm beat here. Sucks don't it!