Try again ...

After blowing an early and healthy lead for the third straight night, the Rays return to the field in Seattle on Friday hoping things turn out differently. Manager Joe Maddon said they have to get better in those late inning situations, but the "how" will be interesting.

RF Delmon Young turned 22 on Friday, and does so with a chance to become the 12 player since 1900 to have as many as 190 hits in a season at his age. Young goes into play Fridday with 171.

The Rays are again without LF Carl Crawford, who will serve the second game of his suspension tonight.

Comments

[dave]

can ANYONE please tell me why the heck Maddon would pull Shields with only 99 pitches when he is cruising, and replace him with anyone from our bullpen? Shields was as strong in the 8th then in the 1st, and he only had 99 pitches!! Why in the world would he get replaced with the likes of Glover?!?! I like Maddon, but i have to wonder if he is really manager material when he makes decisions like this. Can ANYONE please explain to me why this was a sound managerial decision? If so, i will be very happy to give Maddon a break. But as of now, it looks like a managerial decision may have cost us another game.

[peterman]

Maddon isn't stupid; he's dense meaning extra stupid and stubborn. This team has a nucleus but its needs are many: a non-cheapskate ownership, a proven, experienced manager, two reliable starters, a solid middle reliever, a better closer than Reyes, a major league catcher with experience, and a real shortstop. Second base will be okay next year with Aki and Longoria at third. Baldelli should be traded while he has ANY value left. Might be able to get a DH or middle reliever for him. Outfield position is loaded and he can't dislodge any of the starters. Interesting that 3/4 of the readers polled says Rays "have turned the corner." They're the worst team in baseball and with no willingness of management to spend in the offseason, will remain so. Sternberg can take his free parking and shove it.

[Bob R.]

Maddon pulled Shields because it is more important to keep him healthy than to win this game. He has pitched more innings this year than in any previous and there is convincing data to show that pushing a young pitcher past about a 20% increase in innings will damage his arm.

It is also possible, and here I am only speculating, that Maddon (&/or Hickey) saw some slight change in Shields's mechanics in the 8th. That would be a serious danger sign. Also, it is not simply the number of pitches he has to monitor but the type of stress under which he throws them. Getting a double play on a hard line drive to the outfield, for example, might very well have indicated Shields was on the verge of extending himself too far.

Actually, I do disagree with Maddon's decision to bring in Glover. In my view, the current wisdom that you do not use your best reliever in a tie game on the road is nonsense. But in that case, Maddon was being conventional.

As for the other comments about cheapness and being dense, those are transparently untrue. Legitimate frustration should not blind us to the reality that Sternberg, Friedman, Maddon et al are both intelligent and willing to do whatever it takes to bring a winner here.

[agatha]

Bob R., are you a fifth grader? Your last statement is so patently untrue as to be ludicrous. The management is totally cheap and as long as there is revenue sharing, will remain so. Everyone knew--excluding maybe yourself--in the last offseason that relief help was desperately needed. Reyes is sometimes effective; the rest are minor leaguers. Really. Open your eyes or is your real name Mrs. Sternberg (his mother, not his nonexistant wife).

[Bob R.]

Sorry Agatha, but you are wrong on all counts. The Rays did spend in the off-season; they did so intelligently rather than follow the Oriole's path of squandering resources on second rate relievers. The Rays did make legitimate offers to the better relief prospects, such as Dotel, but were outbid. That is not cheapness but properly establishing parameters for spending and not getting sucked into destructive bidding.

It is unfortunate that so many fans look at the superficial and cliched rather than at the reality. Sternberg is spending to build a foundation of success-on scouting, academies, signing prospects and the like as well as on improving the overall experience at the Trop. At the same time the team is deepening the talent base and sorting through it to determine what is needed to win the World Series. The last thing a team like the Rays needs to fix is the bullpen-the last thing, not the first thing. And once the off-season effort to do so faltered (note that the bullpen was totally overhauled from 2006-2007) they did address it again during the year.

I am neither in 5th grade nor a relative or acquaintance of the Sternbergs, nor do I work for the Rays in any capacity. I simply recognize intelligent planning and can did a little deeper than the superficial when analyzing what is happening. Popular opinion pegs everything on payroll as if that were the sole element in building a team. For casual fans and simple minded people it is the answer to all questions. I do not deny it has a role, but it is one of many factors and not the most important, and it cannot be addressed until other factors are dealt with first.

[dj]

Agatha, you must keep in mind that to sign a good free agent, the free agent must actually wants to come here. The Rays have to heavily outbid teams who pay too much for mediocre talent. Spending on relief help doesn't really mean squat anyway. The Orioles spent a fortune on their bullpen last offseason (more than anyone in baseball), and it got them nothing. They lost their closer and all that bullpen depth meant nothing. Fact is, how a bullpen will perform is the hardest thing to predict in baseball... If the Rays had been the biggest spenders on free agent relievers last offseason, they would have the Orioles bullpen. The Orioles bullpen stinks.

[peterman]

You guys are hilarious. Saying the Rays are much more thrifty than the Orioles, an admittedly poor team. Take a look at the standings, bozos. Are the Orioles trailing the Rays? As for free agents wanting to come to
Tampa, don't be so naive. They would come here if the money was right or are you saying they would not come to such an undesirable part of the world under any circumstances. Anyone that calls the Rays (non) moves intelligent planning" just has to be on the Sternberg family tree, an empathetic skinflint, or the owner of an undeveloped cranium. Such ignorance!!! Such naivete!!!

[DJ]

Ok Peterman, I guess the Orioles are two games ahead of the Rays because of their great free agent signings. My mistake. It was brilliant for the Orioles to spend all that extra money (22 million) so their bullpen and winning percentage could be worse than it was last year. I didn't realize they were shooting for 26 games out of first place in their division. Their free agent pickups really worked out for them.

The Orioles have the 10th highest payroll and they are tied for the third worst record in baseball. The White Sox have the 4th highest payroll and the second worst record in baseball. San Francisco has the 11th highest payroll and they are in last place in their division. Arizona leads that division with the 5th lowest payroll in baseball. Houston's payroll is right in the middle (15th), but they are in last place in their division, right behind the 4th lowest payroll Pirates.

If the season ended today, 3 of the lowest 8 payrolls would be in the playoffs. That's a fact. Payroll doesn't mean that much. It's just what people who don't like to think use to explain why their small market team isn't winning.

[wiggy]

This is what it has come to in Tampa: a Devil Ray fan boasting that the team with the worst record in baseball has a better organization than the team just above it in the standings. Here's why the Orioles, who couldn't spot talent if they had William Morris and Simon Cowell in the front office, do have a better organization:

1) They actually ARE willing to spend money.

2) They sell out all their home games with the exception of the Devil Rays, probably. They do this despite not offering free parking.

3) They play in a first class facility.

4) All their players really belong in the major leagues. They didn't feel themselves forced to bench a .155 hitter because of an injury.

5) A more discriminating and critical fan base who are at least seeing a team that is competitive rather than the shoddy product based in Tropicana Field.

I also suspect that Baltimore has a more critical, probing local media that points out management mistakes and was not part of a stadium scam.

[Bob R.]

It is fruitless to compare the Orioles' organization, with no direction or rational plan, to the Rays'. The Orioles' offense this year has a cumulative line of .271/.333/.412 compared to the Rays' line of .269/.335/.435, and Baltimore is doing it with a roster that averages 30.3 years old. It has one star (Markakis) and just two other starters (Patterson: 27) and Roberts (29) under 30. Three of its starters (Millar, Mora and Payton) are 34-35. The one good move they made this year was trading Trachsel and possibly picking up Guthrie. Otherwise, it continues to rely on retreads and mediocrities like Millar, Gibbons, Patterson, Payton and Huff, hanging on to its tradeable talent like Tejada who will no longer be useful when they can contend.

I cannot imagine anyone preferring the Orioles' lineup that has scored fewer runs than the Rays to that of the Rays.

There is no reason to revisit the "spending" issue. It is one of the most persistent and misleading red herrings in baseball. Suffice to say that, except at the margins, there is no correlation between payroll and winning. The Sternberg group has been in charge for about 2 years now taking over a moribund organization, and there is not a reputable analyst who is not tremendously impressed by what they have done to prepare the Rays for serious contention.

[peterman]

Now I know you are Sternberg's mother or on his PR payroll...because of this:

"there is not a reputable analyst who is not tremendously impressed by what they have done to prepare the Rays for serious contention."

That statement has absolutely NO basis in fact. You have absolutely no credability when you make up s h i t out of whole cloth.

Another concepction of yours is that spending $$ on payroll is misleading and that being cheap will produce a competitive team. It's all about wins and losses, moron. Who has the worst record in baseball? Who plays in the poorest facility in the major leagues? Who's ownership has no propensity to spend to make it a contender?

Truthfully, I wouldn't trade the Rays lineup (now before they start dumping salary) for the O's either because that means a 4th place finish next year and people like you can celebrate. As long as there is revenue sharing, Sternberg will be popping champagne corks no matter where this sorry team with an even sorrier manager finishes.

[Bob R.]

First of all, in response to wiggy's comment that the Orioles sell out all their home games except for the Rays, we need to get the facts straight. They do not do any such thing. As a matter of fact, their attendance has declined precipitously over the past 7 years, falling from over 38,000 per game in 2001 to under 27,000 per game in 2006. It has risen slightly this year, but will likely not break 30,000. More significantly, their ranking in the AL has fallen every year since 2001, when they had the 6th highest average attendance, as follows:
2002: 10th; 2003: 11th; 2004: 12th; 2005: 14th; 2006: 20th; 2007 (to date): 23rd.

Second, as for peterman's comments. The statement is based entirely on fact. I refer you to the Baseball Prospectus analysts, particularly Sheehan and Carroll, and Kahrl to a lesser extent. You may also read comments at ESPN by analysts such as Neyer, Olney and others. Baseball Analysis and the Hardball Times, with people such as Lederer, have also praised the intelligence and approach of the Rays. Kevin Goldstein, late of Baseball America and now at BP also identifies the Rays as among the best systems in the game. I cannot prove that I have not read reputable analysts who are unimpressed, but would be glad to if they are brought to my attention.

There is no question that individual moves have been questioned (I have done so too), and it is certainly true that the results so far have been disappointing. But it is necessary if you are to make credible statements to look beneath the surface. The Rays are a young, inexperienced team with serious flaws, but the system is bulging with talent and there is a front office with an excellent eye for talent.

As for the issue of spending money, please interpret correctly before responding. I never said that being cheap leads to winning. Cheapness is not an issue. But I do reiterate that spending on payroll does not correlate with winning (except at the margins, to some extent). What does correlate is proper assessing of what is needed and where best to spend the money. That is precisely what the Rays are doing, and since it makes sense to do the assessment before spending the money, it is equally sensible to understand that the Rays would not squander money first and then assess. Knowing already they needed infield help, the Rays spent money on Iwamura.,outbiddding San Diego and Cleveland; that appears to have been money well-spent.

The Rays might have paid heavily for Loretta, but I prefer Harris, albeit not as a long-term regular. The Rays could have tried to outbid Milwaukee for Suppan, but I prefer finding out if Jackson, Sonnanstine or Hammel can do as good a job, and if not them one of the other prospects. The Rays might have been able to bring back Baez for a guaranteed $18+ million over 3 years but I prefer Reyes.

Eventually, the Rays will have to spend more, both to keep the talent already here and to acquire complementary pieces. But that could not reasonably be done this past off-season. They could not know if Upton would rebound, if Shields was for real, if Young would succeed, if Iwamura could adapt, if Navarro would grow or Zobrist flop or Pena play any role at all et al. They know more now, and so can begin making rational decisions about where to increase payroll.

[Bob R.]

The following is not from a professional analyst but from someone I know very acquainted with the Rays and with analytical thinking. After doing some analysis of the wretched performance of this year's bullpen and arriving at a speculation that even an average bullpen might have meant 10-12 more wins, he concludes as follows:
______________________________________
"What I know frustrates both of us is that the Rays have exactly the right idea for building a bullpen, and because the pen has been so execrable they get no credit for it. You can do everything right and see it all fall apart, just as you can do everything wrong (see Bavasi in Seattle, Colletti in L.A.) and get so lucky you come out looking like some visionary. The danger is that the DRO starts feeling pressure, strays from the plan and throws away millions to try to fix the problem. I hope they're smarter than that."
______________________________________
Before criticizing the Rays' front office, we need to recognize what they are trying to do and how. Considering the bullpen is a good place to start because it represents so perfectly how the best plans may sometimes short-circuit, and also indicates how quickly that may turn around.

[DJ]

Bob R, you are throwing out too many facts and examples for Peterman. He only understands "Wins, Moron" and "Payroll, Moron". He thinks the Rays are dumb and will always be in last place. Jim Callis thinks the Rays will win the 2010 World Series. I think the highly respected analyst and executive editor of Baseball America probably knows a little more about what makes a good organization than Peterman.

The Rays organization is currently in a position that if they do nothing but keep the players they already have in their organization, they will at least contend for the playoffs. If they don't spend the money to keep guys like Kazmir and Crawford around, or they trade guys like that when they are getting close to their free agent year, then I will firmly plant my feet in the "Rays management are idiots" section. But until that happens, I'm going to stand behind the organization with easily the best minor league system in baseball and the some of the best young talent in the majors.

[wiggy]

Just a lot of selective non-facts from this charatcer Bob R. who seems to suck up to Sternberg. An employee, perhaps?

Wins and losses are the only things that really count, not your misguided opinion or the pseudo-analysis by your anonymous friend.

I am certain Sternberg is laughing at your posts as well as the suckers that show up at that horrendous baseball facility. As long as there is revenue sharing, a cheapskate like Sternberg, and fans and media willing to accept abject failure, this team will never reach .500

[peterman]

"The Rays organization is currently in a position that if they do nothing but keep the players they already have in their organization, they will at least contend for the playoffs."

This statement so patently defies logic that whoever uttered it should be in a rubber room. These are probably the same guys who said Naimoli-LaMar were geniuses and that a pennant is "only" three years away.

[DJ]

Peterhead, "their organization" doesn't mean just the players in the major leagues, moron... Go ahead and ignore the people who get paid to cover baseball for a living. Ignorance is bliss. You must be very blissful.

Wiggy, did your feelings get hurt because your idiotic statement about the Orioles attendance got shot down by real statistical information? Awwww. I'm sure your mommy will give you a cookie.

[Bob R.]

In what way is a listing of the Orioles' attendance a non-fact when it is used to evaluate the statement that the Orioles sell out all their games? It is you, wiggy, who made that statement with no information to support it. I simply identified the data that disproved what you said. The real question, of course, is what data anyone has to demonstrate that Sternberg is a cheapskate. If it is purely the low payroll after 2 years, that is inadequate as evidence as there is a lot more to spending than payroll.

I agree DJ that the current roster supplemented by the talent in the system has a chance to contend although I do think the Rays will have to look outside the organization to fill certain gaps. I will also lose faith in the new ownership if they fail to keep the core talent on hand. I do not think that will happen. One of their first moves on taking control was to extend Crawford and Baldelli, an early indication the were serious about contending as was their going well above mlb"s recommended salary to sign Price. And I think there is serious conversation now about extending Kazmir as well.

I fear you are right about this conversation. There can be no dialogue if there is no agreement on what constitutes evidence or rationality.

[DJ]

Yea Bob, you support your opinions with real information and they come back with "must be an employee" or "must be Mrs. Sternberg". They don't support their opinions with anything deeper than "look at their record" and "look at their payroll". Their analysis stops there. It's like holding up a red rose and saying "this is a rose and this rose is red, so all roses must be red". Then they say that YOU are the one with flawed logic. They think that if you believe the current management is headed in the right direction, then obviously you thought the Namoli/Lamar regime was brilliant. Of course one doesn't have anything to do with the other, but their flawless logic tells them that it does. All it tells me is that their opinion is worthless because they are literally incapable of analysis.

[GoCards]

I'm a recent St. Louis transplant to Tampa Bay and I find this thread unique. But I will say this. After ten years, the Devil Rays organization really hasn't accomplished much. They came into the league at the same time as the Arizona Diamondbacks. What some of you are losing sight of is that in the age of free agency, "the future is now." The good core players on the Rays will definitely test free agency. You have a potential Hall of Famer who does not want to toil here in obscurity. Management must spend or continue the 90+ losing seasons.

[Bob R.]

GoCards, you are correct, and I think the Rays know that. Their extending of Crawford and Baldelli, signing of Iwamura and going over recommendations to sign Price are all signs of their intentions. I can't say for sure, but apparently there are some overtures beginning to sign Kazmir long term as well.

Two points. Nobody can reasonably argue that the Rays organization has been anything short of a disaster for 10 years. But it is also misleading to talk of 10 years; the new group is in authority for 2 years and from the start enunciated a clear plan of action quite different from the aimlessness of the previous group, and what is more, they have followed through on their announced intentions. Any analysis of the Rays must avoid conflating the two administrations as if there is continuity from one to the other.

Second, the issue is not whether the Rays have to spend; everyone knows that. The issue is when and how to spend. Some want the Rays to spend from day one while others approve of a careful evaluation of the situation that may take 2 years or so before committing to more popular free agents. And of course, there is also a need to determine where to put the resources-starters? relievers? infielders? catcher? outfield depth?-and in what kind of players-replacement level? major stars? hot prospects?-before taking action. Random spending is counter-productive.

[DJ]

GoCards, small markets can't afford to have "the future is now" approach unless the future is actually now. The Rays organization was crippled by poor spending when they put together "The Hit Show".

I didn't mind seeing the Rays give opportunities to young guys instead of free agents this year, and maybe even through 2008 if they can't get the right free agents. But if they haven't filled their gaps and locked up some long term deals going into 2009, the new management is no better than Namoli/Lamar. Going into 2009, Brignac should be fully ready to be their shortstop, Longoria will have a year under his belt, Young's power should have shown up, Niemann should have a year under his belt, Price should be ready, Wade Davis should be ready, and Jake McGee should be ready. The Rays have to break out by 2009. That's when they should jump into free agency and outbid everyone for the best players at the positions they can't fill with someone in their organization. There shouldn't be more than a couple spots to fill, so they should be able to afford it. 2009 is when Tampa should be able to get into the playoffs. 2009 is also when Crawford and Kazmir will be seeing free agency in their very near future. If the Rays haven't shown them that they are willing to do whatever it takes to win, they will lose those guys anyway.

If the Rays spend alot of money on free agents in 2008, it better work, but if they don't do something before 2009 it most likely never will work. As a fan, I'd like to see them spend some money to fill their gaps in 2008. But I don't want them to spend to the point that they can't affort to keep their own players who will be highly coveted free agents. Sternberg has alot of money, but he isn't a bottomless pit of money. Sometimes spending big in free agency doesn't work. It might not work in 2008. Their best chance with the least chance of failure is 2009.

[Bob R.]

Just to piggy back on your point, DJ. Here is a link to the free agents this off-season:

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2000/04/2007-free-agents.html

I see very few impact players, and very few appealing choices who fit the Rays' needs. I asked Joe Sheehan what the Rays might do about shortstop this coming year, and he replied that he thought they would stay in-house because their options there were adequate fill-ins until Brignac is ready. I do not entirely agree, but I do think it might be better than to spend a great deal on the available shortstops on this list, especially if they demand multi-year contracts.

Perhaps the Rays can go hard after Cordero, although even that is iffy for many reasons.

One thing to keep in mind is that when you sign an expensive free agent, it is not just the money but the contract length that is crucial. It is very difficult to abandon a poorly performing player once you've committed lots of cash and time to him. For example, suppose the Rays sign Paul Byrd and he is mediocre or worse. The problem is not simply the cash but the fact that every start Byrd gets is one less opportunity to find out more about either Jackson or Hammel or Sonnanstine or Niemann or whoever else might otherwise have gotten that start.