Mailbag: Marc Topkin answers your questions

Over the past few days, we asked you to send us questions for Rays beat reporter Marc Topkin related to the American League Championship Series. Here are the questions and answers: 

(Pictured above: The Rays pile on Grant Balfour after the ALDS-clinching win over the White Sox. Times photo -- Bruce Moyer.)

Q: Will Joe Maddon use a 3 man or a 4 man rotation for the ALCS? -- Ian

MARC: They are planning on using four, and for two primary reasons – they don’t want to start using their pitchers on short rest at this time of the year, and they won’t want to exclude Andy Sonnanstine, who has pitched very well against the Red Sox. That said, if they needed to use Sonnanstine in relief in Games 1 or 2, or if they felt there was a better matchup, they could also change things as the series evolves – for example, pitching Scott Kazmir in Game 5 at Fenway where he has done well (and on regular rest) rather than holding him back for Game 6.

Q: How do you expect David Price to be used? -- Kris

MARC: Long or late, most likely. The Rays still aren’t comfortable that he can warm up in a hurry, so the chances of him being used situationally – to face some tough lefthanders – is not as likely, plus the Rays have Trever Miller for that. More likely, Price would be used to start an inning in a lopsided game, or to pitch in extra innings.

Q: Does it come down to Hinske vs. Percival for the final spot? Will they choose to have an extra arm for the longer series? -- DJ

MARC: Actually, it came down to Eric Hinske or Edwin Jackson, and they indeed did choose the extra arm. The idea, as we explained in Friday’s paper, is that they wanted to be covered in case of a blowout or extra inning game and didn’t want one game in which they had to overuse the bullpen to carry over into the next game. Plus, with Carl Crawford back and healthy and starting in leftfield, and speedy and versatile rookie Fernando Perez on the bench, they really didn’t have much use for Hinske.

Q: Why won't the team remove the blue tarps to allow for a larger crowd in the ALCS? Some of us who were there for game #1 in franchise history are watching on TV while new fans are there in person. I don't begrudge them, but if it holds 45,000, why not sell that many tickets? -- Rob

MARC: Obviously this is a popular topic of conversation, since we keep getting questions about it. The Rays made the decision to stick with that they did during the regular season in keeping the 6,000 or so seats at the top of the upper deck covered. Their point is that many of those are at least semi-obstructed view, some are bench seating rather than chairs, and that the fan experience and building operation is better with 36,000 fans than 42,000. However, MLB has stepped in, as it has in similar situations in other cities, and said if the Rays get to the World Series that the tarps will come off.

Q: What do you think of the Sox rotation (just set) and how does this affect Maddon's thinking? -- 9equals8.com

Game 1: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Game 2: Josh Beckett
Game 3: Jon Lester
Game 4: Tim Wakefield
Game 5*: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Game 6*: Josh Beckett
Game 7*: Jon Lester
(*if necessary)

MARC: It was a little surprising that they decided to open with Dice-K, though his 9-0 road record and relative calm on the mound are good reasons. Beckett’s health is something of a question, so they may have felt he would benefit from the extra day’s rest. I did wonder if they would try to pitch knuckleballer Tim Wakefield twice in the dome, where he has done so well.

Q: Is there any reports on how many of the Red Sox nation will be invading the Trop? Playoff baseball, with home field advantage, should be HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE. -- David

MARC: A lot of that will be determined by how many people who bought tickets through the Rays online presale end up selling them to brokers (and how many of the people who bought the tickets were brokers) or to Red Sox fans.

Q: BJ has a really good OBP, why not use him as a lead off instead of Aki? I think Aki is really good, but BJ is on base more time and faster, so he would score more runs. -- Ray

MARC: Joe Maddon has toyed with that idea, and has used Upton there a couple times. But at this point of the season, he’s not going to change what worked all year. Eventually, Upton could become a very good leadoff man. What’s also interesting is that in Japan , Aki was considered more of a power hitter.

Q: Has anyone told Joe Maddon that Andy Sonnanstine hasn't given up a run vs. Boston in 13 innings this year (both starts came in september). On the other hand, Kazmir has an ERA of 9.0 in four starts against the Sox. -- Marshall

MARC: Hang on, let me call him. Obviously Maddon is well aware of their stats this season. But if you follow the team, you also know Kazmir usually pitches very well against the Sox, and has had some of his best games against them. Plus, you pretty much have to use all four starters. If you are suggesting he should have used Sonnanstine in Game 2 and pushed Kazmir back, you also have to consider keeping the pitchers on as close to a normal rotation as possible.

Q: Marc, how many Rays fan signatures would it take to get mgmt to consider removal of the Tarps for current and future playoff series? -- 9equals8.com

MARC: For the ALCS, not enough. For the World Series, MLB has it taken care of   - they are coming off.

Q: Do you have any stories about the umpiring crew that was just announced for the ALCS (such as the Eddings history - thankfully, he is not doing the ALCS)? -- 9equals8.com

MARC: Obviously there is the June tirade by Scott Kazmir against Derryl Cousins, who, as it turns out, would have the plate for Game 6, which Kazmir would likely start. Tim McClelland, who has the plate for the opener and is the crew chief, is one of the best at keeping a game under control. 

Q: Would Game 6 move into prime-time if the NLCS is wrapped before next Saturday (i.e. in fewer than 7)? Just a Bulls fans here hoping for a few hours between games so I can "double-down" without worrying about traffic. -- Joe

MARC: Sure would, with an 8:07 start.

Q: What happened to Ben Zobrist? I think he played a key role in the Rays lineup. After the Detroit series (after hitting 3 home runs) he just seemed to disappear? -- Myrle

MARC: He’s raring to go, but there was really no opportunity to use him during the division series. When you think about it, with the returns of 3B Evan Longoria and LF Carl Crawford, the Rays don’t really have a lot of moving pieces in their lineup anymore. They’ll still platoon at DH and in rightfield, but Zobrist isn’t really in the mix at either one of those positions. And the only regulars they would pinch-run for are C Dioner Navarro and maybe DH Cliff Floyd. So barring an injury, there isn’t much for Zobrist to do.

Q: Why Shields in Game 1 & 5 (@Fenway)? He doesn't pitch well there and his appearance will only incite the Red Sox crowd who remembers the Coco incident. -- JSP

MARC: Game 5 is the product of wanting him to start the opener at home, and for the reasons we have talked and written about – that he usually works deep into the game, sets a good tone for the series and keeps his team close. I did wonder if they would consider starting Kazmir in the opener so he would pitch Game 5 (given that he usually does well at Fenway), but it’s obvious they are concerned about him not getting deep into the game. Shields is way too strong mentally to be affected by the crowd at Fenway.

Q: Is it true that the seats were tarped because the team wanted to control supply and demand AND the team sold many of the "lottery deemed" seats to StubHub and took a commission fee off those seats?! Are they double dipping on these seats!! I have found out through informed sources the team has double dipped on these seats. I find it offensive the club did not open the tarp up knowing the demand was this high and the scalped value has gone to Super Bowl levels. This is bezerk! -- JR

MARC: We’ve covered the tarp issue enough. The “official” relationship between MLB and the ticket reseller StubHub has raised eyebrows in many cities, but it’s not clear how that really works. You would like to think the Rays, and all other teams, offer the tickets to the fans at face value rather than give them to the reseller and share in their “profits” as well.

Q: You said last week’s question, that the Rays "may" bring back TAMPA BAY to the road uniforms in the future. I understand what you said. I myself as well as others find this greatly disappointing. Can the club make a commitment that the uniforms WILL have TAMPA BAY on them in future seasons? I find the answer of "may" as a copout. Can there be a commitment made by Matt Silverman and/or Mark Fernandez on this? -- Jake

MARC: I guess you need to ask them. I’ve told you what they’ve told us.

Q: I have got to agree with a previous poster. The club "may" put the road designation on in the future isn't enough for me. This must be unequivocal. Baltimore is returning their city name to their uniforms next year and with all of the civic sentiment running wild, I have to agree. Can the club reconsider their position on this? To me, it means a lot for, and I know it does for others. -- John

MARC: Maybe you and Jake should get together.

Q: Accuscore has the Redsox favored to win the series with the Rays favored to win game one and a split on game three. What is the past performance on Accurscore prediction/ simulations relative to Rays Redsox games? -- Harold

MARC: Not really what Accuscore is. Coolstandings.com, which runs (and runs and runs) computer simulations of the games, predicts the Sox will win in six.

Q: Hey Marc - you guys have been doing great coverage on the postseason so far, and I want to thank you all. Someone who seems to have been forgotten, in all the stories I have seen about who and what has contributed to the Rays success, is Tom Foley. He is, as far as I know, one of the few coaches who has endured through the McRae - Piniella - Maddon eras (he may have been here during Rothschild's tenure too, I'm not sure). He just seems like a really steady presence, in an important position, and I'd like to know a bit more about him and what these wonderful moments lately mean to him. -- MikeD

MARC: That’s a good point. Tom has been with the Rays since 1996 in a variety of roles, and has been the third-base coach since 2002. He’s a busy man during pre-game workouts, but we’ll try to catch up with him soon.

Q: Why does Coach Maddon refuse to bunt with a man on third and less than two outs? More times than not, The Rays have left an almost sure run stranded on third. -- Dave

MARC: Maddon’s reluctance to bunt is part strategy, since he prefers a more aggressive style of play. But it’s also part reality, in that there are only a few Rays – as amazing as that sounds for major-leaguers - who can be counted on to get down a good bunt.

MARC: That’s all I have time for today; maybe be we can do this again if there is another round of playoffs this season.

Comments

[Helene]

There are times when bunting is a waste (I rarely like seeing it with the bases empty), and times when it's great strategy (to set the table for hitters to get RBIs.) Especially when a team has reliable pitching, and merely needs to scratch out a run or two to go ahead. And according to almost every amateur baseball player I've talked to, bunting is really frickin' easy to do. Kevin's right, there's no excuse for major leaguers not knowing how to put one down. Pena should especially learn to bunt because of that crazy shift they always put on him. If he bunts for a base hit a few times (and I can't imagine that should be difficult, considering where the fielders are always placed in that shift) they'll never use it again.

[Carl]

Bunting is, statistically, a waste of time. The team gives up an out almost 85% of the time on a bunt and once there are three outs, the team can't score any more runs. Why waste a finite commodity? While a sacrifice does not count toward a batter's average, it makes them a .150 hitter. Which would you prefer: a .150 hitter or a .250 or better hitter? Also, Maddon's strategy has worked perfectly well all year without the bunt. Bunting is the worst strategy, in my opinion, ever invented. When a hitter goes to the plate, his main goals should be to not make an out and to get on base. Bunting reduces the chances of reaching the goal by 85%. Too many things must occur for the hitter to reach base when he bunts.

[Kevin]

You can't tell me that if any major league player wanted to learn to bunt that it couldn't be done in a few days, maybe a week max. All the Rays should be able to get the ball down. Period. Pena should bunt as long as it takes in the cage until he can get it right. Sure, he's an awesome power threat but getting a guy on puts pressure on the defense. He should bunt every time he's up with less than 2 out and no one on. Longoria's no slouch in the power department.

[Bradley]

Coolstanding just plain got it wrong,the Sox curse is back on. Go Rays lets win this thing and go to the World Series!

[John]

If they can't but have them practice, practice, practice. In my opinion the refusal to bunt hurt the Rays in game one, as did giving hitters the green light on 3-0 counts

[harold]

Accuscore is similar to coolstandings. Accuscore resluts are typically posted on common sports sights like yahoo sports and ESPN. Both of those site might be a good read.

[9equals8.com]

Thanks for answering my questions, Marc. Looking forward to a great game tonight. I'll post pictures again for those of you that are interested.

Go Rays!!!

[FludOirson]

This is a new one: the Reverse-Wally Pipp, Once-Removed. Crawford gets hurt, Hinske moves to LF, Gross shifts to Hinske's RF spot and Eric's the one on the outside looking in when Carl returns.

Been a fool's errand second-guessing Joe most of the year.

And I'm all for EJack being added and sure, Gross has played well enough to start.

But dropping Hinske from the roster? For whom? Fernando Perez? Flavor of the month. There's a reason he was in Durham until September.

Hinske's Top 5 for TB in several offensive categories (3rd in HRs, fourth in RBIs and steals, and fifth in slugging pct.)

He can play OF, IF and DH, has postseason experience, and knows Fenway Park intimately, having played for Boston. I want that package, if not starting, on the bench and ready to step in with the stakes this high.

His final game for the Rays may very well have been the season-ender at Detroit. What did he do there? 1 HR, 3 RBIs and a stolen base.

Hard luck for Tampa Bay's most underappreciated player this year.
Thanks for your contribution all season, No. 32.