Reviews are good on Burrell deal

The Rays signing of Pat Burrell seems to be getting good reviews from the initial analysts. Here are a few excerpts:

From mlb.com's Fred Claire:

In the most basic evaluation, the Rays have acquired a steady player in every sense of the word and Burrell figures to make a smooth transition to Tampa Bay.

He will run hot and cold with the bat, but in the end, he will produce home runs and RBIs. He will be great in the clubhouse and represents everything manager Joe Maddon and the Rays appreciate in a player.

From ESPN.com's Buster Olney:

But it is reasonable to think that Tampa Bay may field the best offense, coupled with the best defense and perhaps the deepest rotation, in the AL East. A lot will ride on how effectively the Rays can plug the back end of their bullpen.

From ESPN.com's Keith Law:

The Rays took advantage of the market glut in sluggers with bad defensive profiles and scored a major bargain in signing Pat Burrell.

Burrell becomes their full-time DH, providing power as well as needed plate discipline, with Matt Joyce platooning with someone like Fernando Perez (a switch-hitter who can also back up center) or Willy Aybar (another switch-hitter who can fake a few infield positions). The Rays received next to nothing last year from their DHs -- a motley crew headed by Cliff Floyd. If avoiding the field keeps Burrell from wearing down over the course of 2009, this could be a two-win upgrade for Tampa Bay. It also increases the Rays' chances to boost their runs scored enough to make up for some likely regression in their runs allowed total.

Between this acquisition and the trade for Joyce, Gabe Gross appears to be out of a roster spot, and Tampa's lineup is complete, with no obvious weakness anywhere on the diamond.

If you're looking for a negative here, Burrell is the type of player who does not age well -- he has "old man's skills," meaning power and patience, but is a poor defender and is a 20 runner on the 20-80 scale. He faded very badly down the stretch last year, hitting .191/.295/.365 in August and September amid rumors that he was playing through a foot injury, although the finalization of this contract indicates that he checked out physically.

Compare this to the deal the Phillies, who let Burrell walk without offering him arbitration, gave Raul Ibañez: one extra year at a marginal cost of $14 million as well as the loss of their first-round draft pick, for a player four years older and worse defensively. It also resets the market for this type of player (all bat, little or no glove, no speed) to something more reflective of the supply (deep, with Adam Dunn and Jason Giambi still available) and demand (shallow), which would indicate that Ibanez's deal will continue to stand out as high in dollars and years for a player who was not the best in his class this winter.

From ESPN.com's Rob Neyer:

Fresh off winning the World Series, Pat Burrell is apparently heading to a new team, a new league … and a substantially lower salary …

What a fantastic move. As you've no doubt read, this winter there's a buyer's market for sluggardly sluggers like Burrell and Giambi. Burrell earned roughly $28 million with the Phillies over the past two seasons. That was too much. Because of his obvious limitations -- he's not only a left fielder, but a poor one -- he was really worth something like $20 million over those two seasons. He's in his early 30s now, and moving to the better league's best division, so we may assume he'll be worth less than $20 million over the next two seasons.

How much less? We can't exactly know, but $16 million for two years seems just about right. Especially considering that he's actually more valuable as a DH than as a left fielder. And while it would have been easy for the Rays to rest on their considerable laurels and assume that a full season of David Price will give them all the boost they need, it's a lot smarter to make a real effort to get better, because some of the things that went right in 2008 will go wrong in 2009. Bravos and Huzzahs are definitely in order.

Comments

[Chris S]

Well, maybe I spoke too soon. You aren't far off now that I'm looking at the numbers. Gomes hit 8 HRs in 154 ABs. If he had as many ABs as Burrell (536), he would have been on pace for 27 or 28 HRs. Hmmm.... His batting average was bad, but maybe it gets better with more consistent ABs.

[brianj]

No, I enjoyed last season like everyone else. But I do believe Jonny could have hit .250 and 30 hrs.

[Chris S]

brianj - PLEASE tell me you are kidding?!!! This organization was FAR too patient with Gomes and he produced NOTHING. Are you like Austin Powers - you were frozen in 2005 and just woke up?

[brianj]

I like the Burrell signing, but with a little commitment, I think this could have been Jonny Gomes.

[Bob R.]

I don't see anything backhanded, nor do I think there is any difference in the way analysts like Neyer or Law evaluate a player based on who signs him. Each is praising the Rays for an exceptionally smart move while recognizing that the limitations that Burrell has are relatively insignificant given his expected role on the Rays.

As an example, here is Law on the Burnett signing. While both he and Neyer think the Yankees strengthened themselves (and who can deny they have?), they also highlight dangers in the signing:
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"There are two major drawbacks to a Burnett signing of more than one year. One is that he doesn't always pitch up to his stuff; last year, he had a 4.96 ERA at the All-Star break, and over three years with Toronto he didn't post a single-season ERA under 3.75. Yet he finished his three years in Toronto on a tear, with a 2.72 ERA, 105 strikeouts against 29 walks in 94 1/3 innings, and dominant outings against the Yankees (four starts, 32 1/3 innings, five earned runs), Rays (two starts) and White Sox (one start) after the 2008 All-Star break. If he pitches like that over a full season, he will be a Cy Young contender. But he hasn't pitched like that over a full season at any point in his career, and he has only pitched like that in years when he had a significant financial incentive to do so (his walk years and his last pre-arbitration year).

The other is the frequency with which he takes the mound. Burnett has, with some reason, earned a reputation as a pitcher who will only pitch if his arm feels 100 percent, even though most pitchers pitch from time to time with some soreness or mild discomfort. Burnett has had only one serious arm injury in his pro career -- the blown elbow ligament that cost him most of the 2003 season -- but has missed time with "minor" arm problems that never required surgery. As a result, he has thrown only 200 innings in a season three times (the aforementioned years when there was money at stake), and has only made 30 starts in a season twice. An optimistic forecast would only give him 125 or so starts across the five years of this contract with the Yankees."
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They are simply offering their reasoned views and there is no reason to feel underappreciated because they make a realistic appraisal of Burrell's strengths and weaknesses and what it means for the Rays. I agree that ESPN does focus on NY and Boston, but individual analysts like Law and Neyer should not be included in the bias of the network.

[Jimbo]

Those actually sound like back-handed compliments to me. "Yeah, it's a great deal for the Rays - ONLY because he's becoming a DH." Gimmie a break! This is someone who has averaged 28 HRs over his career and 31 HRs over the last four years. He averages 91 RBIs a year and draws about 86 walks. Those numbers aren't anything to sneeze at. He's not some "might as well" choice; he's only 31, so he's still got another 8-10 years left in him.

Yeah, he's not the best base runner or fielder, but that's why the DH exists. But to say he's lucky to get a contract because his glove's not what it once was, completely ignoring his bat, makes me hate ESPN more and more.

You know for a fact that if he would have signed to the Yanks or Red Sox, there'd be zero negatives prefacing the praise, that's for sure. They're just upset the Rays will screw up their plans to have Yank/Sox coronations all summer and be the AL East Champs again! GO RAYS!!!