Bummer in the 'burbs: Pasco County home sales off 39 percent

Pasco County, one of the hot spots of the recent housing boom, sputtered in December when it came to year-over-year single family home sales.

December sales came in at 325, a 39 percent drop from the 533 homes that sold in December 2006. The median sales price dropped 14 percent over the year, from $214,900 to $184,200.

One bright spot: Inventory of homes dipped in December to its lowest point since April 2006. About 6,656 homes were available for sale on the Multiple Listing Service last month. Inventory peaked at 8,052 in March.

Inventory should drop this year in the Tampa Bay area. It also helps that builders have also sold off much of their backlog.

But don't count on a condo recovery this year. The glut is huge and growing. Investors are walking away from deposits rather than close on units they can't sell.

Full chart of Pasco home data: Download pasco_december_2007_all_reports.pdf

Comments

[Fuzzy Bear]

The state of Florida seems to disagree with the realtors per the following article:

“Amy Baker, the coordinator of the Office of Economic and Demographic Research, said that the state’s excess supply of homes is more than 200,000 and that it may take nearly two years simply to sell the excess homes. She said prices are expected to continue falling into 2009, with a total reduction of home values in Florida likely to be greater than the 15 percent expected nationally.”

NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO BUY? I DOUBT IT!!

[JB]

if you are looking for an investment don't buy a home now - correct. if you are looking for a home with a 10 year outlook, you can't time the market. homes were never designed to be day traded so investors should never dabbled, but since they have, it will take time to bring prices to realistic levels again. the dot com industry has gained since its debacle of 2001 so too will housing.

[James Thorner]

I agree there's a lot of so-called hidden inventory when you consider the people who keep their homes off the MLS for fear they won't sell. Most of those investor types are renting the house and waiting for better days. But keep in mind that much of Florida's excess housing supply is condos. In some places we'll need more than Fuzzy's 2 years to clear up the glut. If you're in a regular house, the market prospects are better. Many decent sources I've read/talked to expect a sales recovery by 2009 and a price recovery in 2010. There's a good chance in 2008 that a monthly home sales total will exceed that of the same month in 2007. When that happens Realtors will herald the "good news."

[Dave]

Good points James. Funny also, your right that when one month shows a small blip upwards we'll hear that it's over, and time to buy all the houses you can.

[James Thorner]

Dave, I'm certain that's the strategy of the National Association of Realtors. Lawrence Yun, the group's national economist, told me that in person when he spoke in Tampa last year.