Tampa area new home closings down by about half

Our local new home market probably won't reach buyer/seller equilibrium for another year.

So says housing analyst Tony Polito, whose firm Metrostudy released new home sales data for the first three months of 2008. Polito initially thought the new home market would stabilize in late 2008. He no longer believes so.

Housing starts here were off 43 percent, from 2,240 in the first quarter of 2007 to 1,277 in the first quarter of this year. Metrostudy chalks up a start when a concrete slab is poured.

New home closings nosedived 47.5 percent year to year. They were 3,999 in first quarter 2007 versus 2,102 first quarter 208. Metrostudy is strict about how it defines closings. It has to see evidence somebody has actually moved in. That means vacant investor homes are discounted.

A glimmer of hope emerged from Polito's report. Builders continue to whittle down inventory, though declining sales have substantially slowed that effort.

“Because builders are not starting speculative homes, the number of finished vacant housing units continued to decline during the first quarter. This was the fourth quarter of declining finished vacant inventory in the Tampa Bay market. However, the months of supply of finished vacant inventory as measured by the annual closing rate, continued to increase,” Polito said.

Comments

[Fuzzy Bear]

Our local new home market probably won't reach buyer/seller equilibrium for another year.

I would agree with Polito's remark that the buyer/seller probally won't come together until 2009.

However, there is a growing storm of foreclosures and that will most certainly put a downward impact on both new and existing home prices in the months to come. Secondly, home prices on the secondary market are only about half way through the decline in values.

Therefore, due to the massive runup in prices during the boom, I believe that prices still must drop back to 2000 pricing levels just to be back in line with the long term growth trends.

Well they're trying again! Screwing the homeowners with SB 2504 - the "Home Court" bill!

Homeowners associations will no longer have to give you NOTICE of an alleged violation. Nope, they just call their lawyer who sends you a Notice of Mediation (in front of a mediator THEY choose). You have a choice then - to either agree that you are in violation AND pay the fine AND pay their attorney's fees and costs OR go to mediation with THEIR mediator. But BEFORE you can go to mediation you have to pay 1/2 of the mediator's fee. If you win in front of THEIR mediator you get your money back. If you lose you can either pay the ENTIRE mediator's fee AND the Association's fine AND the Association's attorney and costs OR demand to go before an arbitrator. The Association gets to choose the arbitrator too!

But before you go before the arbitrator you have to FIRST pay 1/2 of his fee. If you win you get your money back if you lose you pay the ENTIRE cost of the mediation and arbitration and fines and all of the Association's attorneys fees.

If you decide that you'd rather go to court instead of taking your changes with the Association's mediator and arbtrator you can do that, but if you win you can't get attorney's fees or cost and if you lose you still have to pay the Association's attorneys fees and costs and, of course, your fine.

Yep, another attempt by the Republicans to screw the average citizen!!!