Florida Realtors see hopeful signs in quarterly home report

Can you say more of the same?

The Florida Association of Realtors released it 1st quarter housing report taking in sales for the first three months of 2008.

Needless to say, the details are scarcely different from the individual reports from January, February and March that we've already posted on here.

Here's the Tampa Bay area tallies:

Single family home sales: 4,831 in 1st Q 2008 versus 6,416 in 1st Q 2007, -25 percent

Condo sales: 1,188 in 1st Q 2008 versus 1,289 in 1st Q 2007, -8 percent

Single family median sales price: $179,600 in 1st Q 2008 versus $210,300 in 1st Q 2007, -15 percent

Condo median sales price: $153,000 in 1st Q 2008 versus $171,900 in 1st Q 2007, -11 percent

The state Realtor association sees some positive trends going into the 2nd quarter of this year:

“If we look at what is happening month-over-month for 2008, it appears that the bottom of the housing slowdown may be here,” 2008 President Chuck Bonfiglio said. “We are now seeing more activity, more sales and even prices starting to rise in some markets. So I believe that there are some really good signs in many areas of our state.”

When it came to sales and price declines among single family homes, Tampa and the state paralleled each other pretty closely. Sales statewide dipped 26 percent and the median price fell 15 percent.

It was a different story with condos. Despite a glut of condos for sale in places like Tampa and Clearwater, sales and price declines weren't as steep locally as they were in the rest of Florida.

Two theories why that was true: In the Tampa area, condos remains a relatively affordable option when house prices rise out of reach. Secondly, collapsing condo markets like Miami's probably brought down the state average.

Comments

[Fuzzy Bear]

“If we look at what is happening month-over-month for 2008, it appears that the bottom of the housing slowdown may be here,”

If you look at it year over year or quarter by quarter it does not look even close to hitting a bottom.

What I find interesting is that these special interest groups are always saying that next quarter is showing some positive signs. Eventually they will get it correct even though they have missed their predictions over many quarters!

[k]

Better volume for condos than SFH? Don't tell Joel Cantor! ~

[Rachel Sartain]

I'm sorry - I thought this was the St. Petersburg Times. Not the Tampa Times. Did you notice in Pinellas county the absorption rate for single family homes and condos rose for the 4 month in a row. And the absorption rate is the highest it has been since June 2007.

Listing inventory continues to decline. Sales m-to-m are slowly increasing. Median house price has stayed primarily the same tetter-tottering around the 180K mark (State median is around 198K, national is 195K). Total unit of sales for April 2008 compared to April 2007 were down 10.7%. Compare that to last months 30%!

There are some changes in the market. Sellers are lowering there prices and waiting for someone to take the deal. Properties are selling less than appraised value all over the county!

Please stop telling me about Tampa statistics. St. Petersburg is not Tampa. There are vast differences in the 2 counties and what drives the real estate market.

[Ronnie]

Rachel, I agree that Pinellas is different from Hillsborough. Our title company is busier as is our realtor, bank and mortgage company clients. Most of our business is in north Pinellas and south west Pasco (we are in Tarpon Springs). Pinellas is busier than Pasco, but there has been an increase in Pasco as well. We also have an office in Spring Hill which is still under performing. There has not been much change there.

We have seen a steady increase in activity since February. Each month has been a little busier than the last. Most contracts we receive in the current month do not close until the following month. We are receiving new contracts by fax or email every day. We have also noticed that fewer contracts are falling apart before closing. We don’t base our business on contracts received. Rather, we base it on contracts closed. However, if we don’t receive contracts we don’t do closings. Regardless, things in our area have steadily improved and continue to do so.

[k]

Rachel,
FAR does no delineate the Tampa Bay area in their published stats, FWIW.
http://media.living.net/statistics/2008/March%202008%20home%20chart.pdf
It would be nice if they went by county.

[Florida - Paradise Lost]

I concur - why can't GTAR and Pinellas realtors combine? The membership of both is dwindling and the market is the market - the greater Tampa Bay area. Maybe then they can stop bad-mouthing each other's territory.

And regarding the comment,

'...it appears that the bottom of the housing slowdown may be here,” 2008 President Chuck Bonfiglio said.'

What bottom does he speak of? Yes, the decreasing inventory numbers and lowering of prices are both good signs, but...

Compare current numbers to 2003:

Even though the area has a higher populuation now, the # of homes sold was over DOUBLE back then. And look at the price:

Average price now: $233,000
Avearge price then: $130,000

Somewhere in between those prices, we'll hit bottom for real.

Down Periscope!