Drum roll: Hillsborough County homes sales kick up in May

Hillsborough County home sales rose in May for the first time in more than 2 years, according to the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors.

The increase in sales was slight - 1,316 this May versus 1,301 in May 2007 - but it's the first year-over-year improvement since January 2006.

The sales seemed to follow price concessions. Average sales prices were 8 percent lower this year than last. Sellers this May got 92 percent of their asking price compared to 95 percent of their asking price last year.

Here's the chart with details: Download tampamay.pdf

Many Florida economists and Realtors predict Tampa Bay area prices will continue dropping until 2009, keep pace with inflation a couple years thereafter, and resume appreciating after 2011.

Comments

[k]

James, I show different numbers coming from the MFR-MLS for Hillsborough. The GTAR report does not specify any particular county (you know GTAR is all over the place!). Can you confirm?

[James Thorner]

K, GTAR includes sales in east-central Pasco. So they're not purely Hillsborough County that are counted. But Hillsborough's the bulk of the sales.

[k]

James -
Actually, GTAR doesn't specify this in their published reports other than simply "Pasco". If it's a certain section of Pasco, that makes sense with the numbers being the way they are...

HOWEVER

http://www.gtar.org/files/documents/Public_Stats/mlsapr08.pdf

Take a look - GTAR's own numbers don't jive for April with your link (see April). It's likely that the figure in the report that you link includes all "residential sales", not just homes, plus a few that I cannot account. (I use April since May is not available yet via GTAR)

Since the reports include Pasco, which represents a large percentage of total sales, the Hillsborough-only sales did not increase for May 2008. They are considerably down from last year. On the brighter side, the month-to-month looks pretty stable. ...seasonality thing.

Here are the actual Hillsborough County (only) "Home" figures straight off the MFR-MLS as of NOW:

May 2008 Home Sales:
Mean............$248,301
Median..........$188,700
Volume...............994
†ADOM................157

May 2007:
Mean............$289,346
Median..........$220,000
Volume.............1,224
ADOM.................140

Last Month:
Mean............$240,357
Median..........$192,000
Volume...............955
ADOM.................155

Year-to-Year
Mean...........Down 14.2%
Median.........Down 14.2%
Volume.........Down 18.8%
ADOM.............Up 10.8%

Month-to-Month
Mean.............Up 3.2%
Median.........Down 1.7%
Volume...........Up 4.0%
ADOM.............Up 1.3%

†ADOM (Average Days On Market) is likely a higher figure. This data is for month-to-month guidance.

[James Thorner]

Yes, these are ALL home sales, including condo and town homes. I supposed GTAR can slice and dice to make things look sunnier. As long as they're consistent in what they tally year over year, that's fine. Thanks for pointing out Hillsborough only stuff.

[Ronnie]

I have said on a number of occasions that a turn around will not be like a light switch going on and everything is back to normal. It will be more like a drippy faucet that will slowly increase in volume over time.

For a lot of people, buying a home is an emotional decision. A large number of people do not make a decision based on market analysis. They will generally follow the press in how the real estate market is being reported. There are more and more positive articles coming out now. On top of this interest rates are low and most people do not expect that to last. If they have good credit they can still get an FHA loan for 3% down (first time buyers). Additionally, there are a lot of good Realtors who are up front with sellers and tell them if they want to sell they must price their home accordingly. I know Realtors who have walked away from listings because the seller was not realistic in what they could get for their home.

One other thing we have seen at our title company is appraisals coming in considerably higher than the contract price. We have even had the mortgage company for the buyer required the seller to sign a document acknowledging the difference.

At this point I think the faucet is dripping. Prices may continue to fall, but interest rates are likely to rise as well, which will somewhat offset each other. We have had several months of steadily increasing business (actual closings) which where I am basing this from.