Tampa home sales do pole vault in September

September home sales in Hillsborough County made an impressive showing when measured against sales in September 2007.

The Greater Tampa Association of Realtors said sales rose from 1,006 in September 2007 to 1,345 this year. If accurate, that's a dazzling 33.7 percent year-to-year increase.

Why do I say "if accurate?" I double-checked GTAR's numbers against a report pulled off the Multiple Listing Service by Home Encounter, a Tampa consulting firm. Home Encounter reports a 7-percent year to year sales increase, though it includes transactions in Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas counties.

It's no stunner that September numbers would be up. If you recall, the sub prime mortgage meltdown got widespread publicity in August 2007. September home sales suffered disproportionately last year.

But GTAR's figures just feel wrong. They veer too wildly from the regional average. I'll dig a bit more and update what I find.

On the home price front, GTAR reports an average sales price of $207,809, the lowest homes have sold for since November 2004.

Here's a copy of GTAR's report: Download gtarsept.pdf

Comments

[David]

I like a lot of people who read your blog are in the market to buy and appreciate your time and effort. It will be fun in the future to come on here and say I bought a home. Unfortunately every time I look at the economy, my stocks and job security concerns, it seems to be getting father away instead of closer.

[SoldierRenter]

I think the numbers may hold up. Since the Down Payment Assistance Program for FHA was scheduled to end on 30 Sep, brokers rushed people through the pipeline. If my theory is correct, Oct and Nov will be disasters (even more so with the stock market collapse). I love the fact you are looking with a jaded eye at the GTAR numbers. The system is cleansing itself and the result will be more transparency, the bane of nearly everyone in the real estate industry (there are a few ethical people out there).

[Tino]

There have been some huge foreclosure home/condo auctions this summer in Tampa, with 50-200 properties at each auction.

That certainly helps the year-on-year numbers.

Once again, it is shown that the realtors do not count foreclosed homes as potential inventory, but love to include them in sales volumes.

[Fuzzy Bear]

But GTAR's figures just feel wrong.

I think Soldierrenter and Tino nailed it. However, pending contracts are often used in these stats. I am only concerned with the closed and funded sales numbers and not pending sales. The closed and funded numbers are much lower.

[James Thorner]

Your explanations make sense. I figured the high number, if accurate, came from some sort of mass sale/race to meet a deadline. A couple years ago home construction numbers spiked mysteriously in Pasco County. Then we learned the county was months away from toughening up the building code and raising impact fees. Builders rushed to get their permits early.

[Reality Realty]

Well, when I want to sell my upside down condo (130k loan, worth 110k, maybe :) )20k less than the loan I owe, so I can buy my neighbor's house (its a steal he paid 300k for it, but wants only 200k), of which he is 50k upside down hmmmm....maybe in 5 or 7 years when we are each at the breakeven point we can sell? Can you say its gonna be a really long time before sales pick up substantially again?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Can you say its gonna be a really long time before sales pick up substantially again?

The answer to that question depends on the current credit crisis, when home prices are in-line with incomes and when home prices are in-line with rental properties. The other factor depends on the consumers credit rating and their ability to come up with a 20% downpayment.

My opinion, most people who are upside down on their homes will not recover to a break even status in five years.

[Tino]

Of course they won't "recover to a break even status".

Ongoing housing expenses do not stop - the mortgage, property taxes, insurance, upkeep/condo fees, etc continue to accrue at a rate of 9-12% annually.

Almost no one will ever "break even", since housing would have to appreciate at a double-digit rate forever.

Only a hardcore realtor (see Lereah, Yun, etc) would believe that kind of nonsense.

[Real]

Tino,

Nice to see you pulling ahead of the statistical onanism crowd.

Taxes, insurance, and HOA fees are the barriers to ownership. A blind squirrel can find a cheap nut in this market, but you will never beat Citizens or the tax man. Never.