Housing could be worse in Tampa - just ask Vegas

From today's St. Petersburg Times:

About 28 percent of homes in the Tampa Bay area sold at a loss the past year. And guess what? That's not too shabby.

According to Zillow.com, which keeps tabs on real estate in 163 markets, 30.2 percent of homes nationally sold for less than what the owner paid.

While some markets like Los Angeles (48 percent) and Las Vegas (65 percent) represented a disproportionate percentage of homes sold at a loss, even places like Washington, D.C., (38 percent) and Detroit (53 percent) came off worse than the Tampa Bay area.

The problem was less pronounced in places like Dallas (11 percent), Austin, Texas, (6 percent) and Little Rock, Ark. (15 percent).

Zillow said local home values dropped 16.6 percent in the year ending Sept. 30 to settle at $158,054.

Anyone for explanations why we haven't been so badly hit? I can think of two, one positive, one negative.

The upbeat explanation is that we've already cleared much of our investor-held deadwood. Alas, that doesn't make much sense considering that about a third of local sales are distressed homes either in or moving toward foreclosure.

The downbeat explanation is that we're less realistic about home prices than are sellers in Las Vegas and California. While sellers in those other markets slash prices to attract buyers, we harbor Taj Mahal-like illusions about our homes' real market value.

Of course, maybe Zillow's stats are just plain goofy.  

Comments

[Fuzzy Bear]

About 28 percent of homes in the Tampa Bay area sold at a loss the past year. And guess what? That's not too shabby.

I would not rely on that number as most of the inventory has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for better days. Based on the number of properties sold during the bubble, the 28% appears to be too low.

[SoldierRenter]

James,
Here's another explanation. We're trailing behind those markets by about a year. In other words, next year our figures should be similar. I am now seeing bank-owned REO at $70 a square foot. We will overshoot, just look at the scheduled resets for next year.

[marketwatcher]

I take issue with the term "sold at a loss". The sale price of a property is the $s paid by a willing buyer and accepted by a willing seller. This may be greater than, or less than, the amount at which the property last changed ownership. Reality is defined when Jim Thorner goes on to say "we harbor Taj Mahal-like illusions about our homes' real market value".

[marketwatcher]

An Aside ... Jim Thorner's contributions to the Real Estate scene are the best by far of anything available elsewhere. Too much comment is propaganda put forward by developers, speculators and brokers with a vested interest in "boosting" a market which is as dead as 3 day roadkill.

[pascorealtor]

With over 5400 homes for sale in West Pasco and 243 sold in a month I don't see reality hitting the average home owner trying to sell there home. 60% of the solds were bank-owned or pre-forclosure

[Kay Kowal]

What's with Real Estate salespeople. I am trying to purchase a home and everytime I call or e-mail an agent, I never get a response. With the market the way it is, I would think they would be knocking down my door.

[SoldierRenter]

Ms. Kowal,
I have had the same thing happen. I have been unable to see homes due to the listing agent not answering calls, etc. It really is a pathetic (no bar to entry, minimal education required) field. Read everything you can and hire a real estate attorney to review everything (a few hundred dollars) because they are only out for themselves. If you are looking at new construction and you use a real estate agent, demand they give any additional incentives to you (some builders are offering lots of extra money) above the 3%. The system is designed to have maximum opaqueness for the buyer so we don't see how much money is being siphoned off. Research your own comps at the county website and than undercut it by 10%, leave no money on the table for them to take.