Tampa sales inflate while prices deflate

Hillsborough County sold about 65 more homes in October 2008 than it did in October 2007, more evidence that home sales are flattening after a two year free fall.

The Greater Tampa Association of Realtorsrecorded 1,198 sales last month compared to 1,133 a year earlier.

But that stabilization came at a high cost. The average home sales price in October was $187,344, down 28 percent from the average price of $259,460 in October 2007.

You don't have to search far for a reason. Bank-seized foreclosure houses, which sell for about two-thirds the amount of a conventionally priced home, make up close to a quarter of sales in the Tampa Bay area.

Lending credence to this explanation, GTAR says 322 sales in October - more than a quarter of the monthly total - were "all cash" sales. Investors scooping up cheap homes at auction typically have to pay cash.

Here's a chart: Download gtaroct08.pdf 

The October numbers weren't that hideous. Many predicted the banking crisis would crater the real estate landscape as if it were a 10-kiloton bomb. The sales figures suggest otherwise, though most deals that closed in October were probably arranged in September.    

Comments

[Fuzzy Bear]

The sales figures suggest otherwise, though most deals that closed in October were probably arranged in September.

I stand by my predictions James!

It looks like many of these were contracts signed in September and pending contracts that have not yet closed. When you remove these two factors, I bet the numbers do not look as rosey as what is being mentioned.

Show the public what sold and closed in the same monthas that tells a better picture of the true activity.

This appears to look much like the unemployment numbers. When unemployment numbers a released, they do not look that bad to the public initially. Then 30 days later, the numbers are revised upwardly and end up showing a much worse situation. The numbers for August and September are clear examples of this type of manipulation of stats.

[TheTruth]

Get the facts straight, please. GTAR includes a fair portion of Pasco in those figures. The truth is, volume is relatively static in Hillsbourgh, but pricing is WAY worse than you report.
Straight off the MFR-MLS has the county at 924 homes averaging $286,619 in 10/2007. 10/2008 was 910 homes with an average of $198,613 and a median of $156,875. MLS reports only closed sales, Bear, but you are right. It's going to get worse. Affordability means squat if you don't have a job. That goes for prospective retirees too. Trashed 401Ks and BK'd pensions mean they are staying put or going back to work and not moving to God's Waiting Room.
Oh and JT, this realtor is against bailouts, stimuli and extra tax credits. We don't all mindlessly vote with the organization and/or contribute to RPAC.

[Fuzzy Bear]

MLS reports only closed sales, Bear, but you are right. It's going to get worse.

I must say, you have sumed it up very well TheTruth. Supply of condo conversions is now shifting to rental units and that will bring more downward preasure on housing. The consumer is tapped out financial standpoint and that will bring more pain in the near future. Banks are only lending to the credit worthy to reduce their exposure and risk.

Add it all up and it looks grim for 2009. Factor in that the majority of jobs in the Tampa Bay area pay roughly $10 an hour and that eliminates many prospective buyers.

The good news is property values are adjusting downwards and getting closer to to the affordability levels providing you are still employed.

As for the NAR, I do not support their bailout proposals which is simply shifting the burden to the taxpayer.